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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
412 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...

WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN SE
ONTARIO. LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD THE FRONT FROM
NE NY TO WRN NY AND WRN PA. CONVECTION BRUSHING THE FAR NORTH NOW
BUT BULK OF IT WILL COME IN 5 TO 8 PM. CONVECTION EXITS SE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE EVE DIURNAL HEATING DIES WITH WEAKER
WINDS IN THE SE SO TSTORMS WILL BE DYING. IN THE NW HALF BEST CHC
OF SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO DAMAGING WINDS. CAPE CURRENTLY OVER 1K
WITH SFC TEMPS IN 80S WITH DEWPTS POOLING A70. BULK 6KM SHEAR WILL
GET TO 50 KT BUT LL SHEAR WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
TURNING. BEST FORCING ACROSS NY.

LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. 

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






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