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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 200531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL
ALLOW SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES TODAY TO ESPECIALLY MONDAY. OUR NEXT
RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 
130 AM UPDATE... 
VEIL OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY UP OVER PA/SOUTHERN
NY...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM FOR OUR
REGION...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH NOW BUILDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES MUCH MORE DOMINANT OF OUR WEATHER. A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA TO LAKE ONTARIO-NORTHEAST NY MONDAY...A NON-PLAYER
FOR OUR REGION...ALLOWING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR.

WHILE STILL A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OVERALL...THE HIGH
THIN CLOUDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE DROPOFF DURING
THESE PREDAWN HOURS /ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD/. EXPECTING MUCH 
OF  NEPA TO END UP STAYING ABOVE FREEZING...WHILE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S WILL BE MORE COMMON IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE THE COOL START...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY GET UNDERWAY
AS EVIDENCED BY SURGE IN 925-850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODELS.
SURFACE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...ENCOURAGING
ESTABLISHMENT OF RETURN FLOW AND THUS WARMING GETTING REALIZED
EVEN AT THE SURFACE LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
MANAGE JUST A HAIR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TODAY...AND MUCH MORE SO INTO
MONDAY AS FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS. UPPER 50S-MID 60S
TODAY...MID 60S-LOW 70S MONDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS BOTH DAYS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS-TUG HILL PLATEAU. LOWS
TONIGHT 30S TO NEAR 40...MILDEST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
240 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY UNTIL CLOSE TO TUE AFTN. WL KEEP LKLY
POPS IN FOR ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. WITH CLD
CVR AND SHOWERS OFF AND ON THRU THE DAY EXPECT TEMPS WL ONLY BE IN
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY TUES NIGHT THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS/UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RAIN AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION ON THURS BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL AND QUIET DAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI. LARGE DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE STARTING ON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES CONSIST OF TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY FRI AND SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
HAVE A SLIGHT RISING TREND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S WED MORNING AND RISE INTO THE LOW 40S BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
06Z UPDATE...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AROUND OR ABOVE 25 KFT
AGL...ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT...MAINLY VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO WED MORNING ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE... 
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER 
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP






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