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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 142355
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
755 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... THEN SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK... FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.THE FRONT IS
MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.... DENSE
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND SEEM TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FOG WILL LIFT AND
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS ARE HOLDING STEADY BEHIND THE
FRONT... AND EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FORECAST... PLEASE READ THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW...

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE HURON
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FALLING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRENGTHENING MID- LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE AREA CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE COAST FROM THE WEST.

A CLEARING SLOT CAN BE SEEN WORKING EAST ACROSS OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... AND THIS COULD REACH NORTHERN PA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING... BEFORE THE CLEARING IS CUT OFF BY A LOBE OF INCREASED
LOWER- TO- MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW. MEANWHILE NWRLY
SURFACE FLOW INCREASES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BY LATE TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
-8 C LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE BARELY ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT... HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW- LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE HILLS BETWEEN BGM AND SYR WHERE THE NW
FLOW WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO JUST ABOVE IN THE VALLEYS. A LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
MAY OCCUR BY DAYBREAK OVER CENTRAL NY ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL WORK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND FAR NORTHERN PA
EARLY SUNDAY... DIMINISHING AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM MADISON COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO THE CATSKILLS
EARLY SUNDAY WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST PA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH
IN MANY PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
HOLD IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING IN A WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS
BAND OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY
SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S WITH LOWER
50S LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHEAST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY ENDING AS A SNOW SHOWER OR
SOME FLURRIES EARLY TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS
BACK DOWN IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS AGAIN COLDER. TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION BOTH BELOW NORMAL. 

STRENGTHENING OF A NE US UPPER LEVEL TROF TUESDAY NIGHT THEN IT
WEAKENS THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORE
ARCTIC AIR COMES IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MOST OF
THE CWA. SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW AND AN UL SHORT WAVE. A SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW LONG. GFS PUSHES
THE ANY STORMS WELL SOUTH. EURO IS MORE TRANSITIONAL AND BRINGS
A WEAK SYSTEM WITH MIXED PRECIP FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. FOR THIS
PERIOD WPC AND MY POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOLER AIR MVG IN BHD THE RAIN IS DVLPG PTCHY DENSE FOG AND VLIFR
CONDS AT TIMES. AFT A FEW HRS...WLY FLOW WILL DVLP BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING MOST CIGS AND VSBY
BACK INTO THE MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL. LTR IN THE NGT...ENUF CAA
MAY ALLOW FOR OCNL SNOW SHWRS AND LWR VSBYS. 

CAA CONTS ON SUN WITH SCT MRNG SNOW SHWRS AND MVFR CIGS EVENTUALLY
GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS AND VSBY LTR IN THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DVLP LATE TNGT AND CONT ON SUBN...OUT OF THE WEST. 

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS.

THU...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
2 PM UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE. RFCS LOWERED FORECASTS GIVEN A WEAK RESPONSE TO
RAIN SO FAR. 

SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DUE
TO THE RECENT MILDER DAYS. THE RAIN OF HALF INCH OR LESS WITH THIS
CURRENT SYSTEM WILL HELP TO CONTINUE WORKING AWAY AT THE SNOWPACK
AND RIVER ICE AND RISES ARE EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING RIVER LEVELS REACHING
NEAR ACTION STAGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA AT WILKES-BARRE
AND HEADWATERS OF THE NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA NY. NO WIDESPREAD
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS, AND ANY RESULTANT
PROBLEMS, AS RIVER RISES MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE BREAKUP AND
MOVEMENT OF ICE IN SPOTS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WILL BE
CHEMUNG BASIN IN NY AND IN NORTHEAST PA. WILL WAIT TO SEE BETTER
RISES TO LIFT THE ICE ON THE RIVERS BEFORE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH.

IN THE LONG RANGE, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP DURING
THE NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RUNOFF LOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/TAC
HYDROLOGY...TAC







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