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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 061149
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS WEAKENED TO BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFTED TO THE WEST.
UPSTREAM WINDS HAVE GONE SW. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOST OF THE
LES IS JUST FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE LES WILL WEAKEN THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND DIE AROUND SUNRISE IN THE SYR AND RME
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO SQUASH THE
LES. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. 

TEMPERATURES FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS COME IN
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT AS MOISTURE COMES IN
ALOFT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SE AS A SFC LOW DROPS SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTH LATE TONIGHT. MAYBE A SNOW SHOWER IN THE TUG AROUND
SUNRISE. 

THE LOW AND SW TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SE ONTARIO AND
NE NY SAT EVE GIVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFTN AND
EVE IN CENT NY. WITH THE SW LL WINDS THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE NE DUE TO THE UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN THE ADDED LAKE MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE SOURCE AND THE DURATION OF THE EVENT MAX SNOW AMOUNTS SAT
AND SAT NGT WILL ONLY BE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NE QUARTER OF CWA.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF TO THE SW WITH AN INCH ALONG THE NY PA BORDER TO
NEARLY ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTH.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
FREEZING THEN STAY UP WITH THE CLOUDS AND MIXING SAT NGT. CAA IS
WEAK WITH THE FRONT AND REMAINS STEADY THROUGH SUN NGT. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY EVEN WARMER AND IN 30S DESPITE THE COLD FRONT. 

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MULTIPLE WAVES ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTS GO THROUGH KEEPING SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY IN CENT
NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. IN THE CASE OF 
MIDWEEK HIGHS...SLIGHTLY LOWER. MILDER PATTERN SHIFT STILL IN THE 
CARDS BUT OPERATIONAL GFS-ECMWF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON JUST 
HOW MILD IT WILL BE. BOTH ALLOW SUB-540 DECAMETER THICKNESSES
/1000-500MB/ TO ENCROACH BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE CANADIAN CMC REMAINS HIGHER. TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WE EXPECT TO ACTUALLY REACH CLIMATOLOGY AND PERHAPS EVEN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE...A FEAT THAT OCCURRED VERY FEW DAYS IN ALL OF
FEBRUARY AND ONLY ONCE SO FAR THIS MONTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE 
BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO LIFT 
NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWS TAKING TRACKS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING 
IN A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT, A 
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH 
OR TWO OF SNOW, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY, BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY 
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED WITH THIS 
FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT IN ANY EVENT A COUPLE TO AT MOST A FEW 
INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. 
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF 
MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AS HIGHS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. FOLLOWING 
THIS FIRST SYSTEM THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD ARE 
PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH 
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY 
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
QUIET TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
FUEL ALT CIG WILL BE BOUNCING IN-AND-OUT OF KITH 12Z-14Z. VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...THEN 22Z ONWARD A DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS 20-25 KFT AGL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...DOWN TO 5-6
KFT FOR MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY. WINDS EITHER
VARIABLE OR LIGHT NW TO SW LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN-MON...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM IN SCT -SHSN AS
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH...ESPECIALLY CNY TERMINALS.

TUE....VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP/PCF
AVIATION...MDP






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