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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 252331
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE FROM THIS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE
FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COOLER SUNDAY, WITH LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
120 PM UPDATE...
STRONG S/WV HAS MADE IT INTO SRN ONTARIO AS OF 17Z WITH LINE OF 
SHOWERS GETTING EVER CLOSER TO NRN LK ONTARIO. QUESTION CENTERS ARND 
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WL MAKE IT INTO CWA THIS AFTN. PLAN TO CONT JUST 
SCTD SHOWER MENTION MAINLY FOR FAR NRN ZONES AFT 20Z AND SHOWERS WL 
QUICKLY WORK THRU BY 00Z. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, HV RMVD THUNDER FOR 
THIS AFTN AS NO CGS OR IN-CLD LGTNG HAS BEEN NOTED AT ALL TDA OVR 
CANADA. 

ANOTHER WV ALONG WITH MAIN CDFNT WL FOLLOW ON INITIAL S/WV'S HEELS 
QUICKLY BHND. AFT INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS QUICKLY MVS THRU AFT 00Z 
EXPECT TO SEE DVLPMNT UPSTREAM AND MV IN ACRS WRN ZONES TWD 
MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALSO BE A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS ACRS CNTRL NY 
OVRNGT, MAYBE AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AFT THIS 
TIME H8 CAA WL COMMENCE RAPIDLY AND LKLY RESULT IN DVLPMNT OF LK 
EFFECT SHOWERS IN 295 DEGREE FLOW.  DELTA T'S INCRS TO > +13C AFT 
07Z AND EXPECT CVRG TO WARRANT LKLY POPS TWD 12Z IN NW FLOW. 

EXPECTING MIN TEMPS TO BE WRMR THAN LAST NGT EVEN WITH CAA 
OCCURRING. PLENTY OF CLDS WL RESULT IN "WRMR" TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT. 
EXCEPTION WL BE NEPA WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO ARND 40 IN DEEPER VLYS, 
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
LK EFFECT SHOWERS WL CONT IN NW FLOW (290-300 FLOW) DRG THE DAY 
TOMORROW WITH H8 TEMPS BLO 0C. SKIES WL BE MOCLDY OVR CNTRL NY AND 
POSSIBLY INTO THE NRN TIER OF PA. WINDS WL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW 
WITH WIND GUSTS OCNLY UP TO 25KTS DRG THE AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WL SETTLE 
OUT IN THE LWR 50S TOMORROW AND FEEL LIKE A TYPICAL AUTUMN DAY FOR 
THE AREA. 

UPR LVL RIDGE WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN LATE SUN NGT AS CLDS CLR FM SW TO 
NE AFT MIDNIGHT. NAM DELAYS CLRNG UNTIL 12Z MONDAY BUT HV SIDED MORE 
TWD GFS, EC AND CMC FOR SUN NGT. NW FLOW WL KEEP MOCLDY SKIES AND 
ISOLD SHOWERS OVR FAR NE SXNS UNTIL CLOSER TO 09Z. GUSTY NW WINDS WL 
DIMINISH AFT 00Z MONDAY AND BEGIN TO BCM MORE WRLY OVRNGT. 

HIPRES, BOTH AT SFC AND ALOFT, WL BE SMACK OVR THE AREA ON MONDAY. 
THIS WL LEAD TO MOSUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS WL RISE INTO THE M/U 50S 
UNDER FULL SUN EVEN THO MIXING IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 900MB. 
HIGH CIRRUS WL BEGIN TO OVRSPRD THE NW LATE IN THE AFTN ON MONDAY. 

WMFNT LOOKS TO MV THRU MON NGT/TUE MRNG AND THIS WL LEAD TO MIN 
TEMPS IN THE U40S. EXPECT JUST A GLANCING BLOW WITH SHOWERS OVR THE 
FINGER LKS OVRNGT. CWA WL BE IN THE WMSECTOR ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS 
LKLY GETTING UP INTO THE 70S IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WHILE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT,
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE A RETURN TO COOLER
WEATHER, ESPECIALLY COMPARED WITH THE BALMY TEMPS OF EARLY IN THE WEEK.

THE END OF THE WEEK TOWARD HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN NIGHT LOOK
INTERESTING. THE OVERALL SETUP OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH OUR AREA BEING IN THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. THE EURO AND GFS
DIVERGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION MUCH MORE RAPIDLY, PULLING
IN VERY COLD AIR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 850 TEMPS DROP TO AS
LOW AS -8C TO -12C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE AROUND THIS
WOULD BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, EVEN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z EURO IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM, AND THIS WOULD MEAN THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR WOULD BE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHEAST, THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. SO WHILE COLD, 850S ARE ONLY IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE,
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY JUST RAIN. WPC GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER I DIDN'T WANT TO LEAN TOO FAR AWAY FROM
OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN. I DID WANT TO SHOW SOME MENTION OF
SNOW GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPS ON WPC GUIDANCE. FOR NOW I HAVE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HALLOWEEN NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH RAIN
ELSEWHERE. A EURO SOLUTION WOULD STILL SUPPORT THIS, WHILE IF THE
GFS IS RIGHT A WHITER SOLUTION WOULD BE NEEDED. ON DAY 7, WE ARE
STILL PLENTY FAR OUT FOR A BROAD SOLUTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FNT ARE NOW EAST OF THE TAF SITES
THIS EVE. VFR CONDS WITH WLY WINDS WILL CONT BHD THE FNT OVRNGT.
TWRD MRNG...ENOUGH CAA TO START TO DVLP SOME WEAK LE SHWRS AT SYR
AND RME...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. VFR
CONDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS AS DRIER AIR AND
HIPRES BLD INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

THUR...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN






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