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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 290531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1231 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT
INTO THIS EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHING BY THE OVERNIGHT AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND FLOW SHIFTS. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EVEN MIXING WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
BE QUITE MILD AS THE AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH A COLD
FRONT BRINGING COLDER CONDITIONS BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SQUALLS OFF ONTARIO HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTH. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY EARLY, BUT WILL KEEP THE LES WARNING FOR
N ONEIDA IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED MUCH FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND OVER FRESH SNOW PACK. WITH UPSTREAM STRATUS MOVING
IN, TEMPS MAY BOTTOM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR
RISE THROUGH MORNING.

MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT MINS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE
GRIDS. 

300 PM UPDATE: LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DUE TO A WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MAINLY ONEIDA COUNTY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. WITH SOME WIND SHEAR ALONG
WITH THE DECREASED STABILITY TO DIURNAL EFFECT BANDS HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT CELLULAR IN NATURE AND ONLY SEMI-ORGANIZED. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECTING PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER N. ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE LAKE EFFECTING
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH LOCAL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES
LIKELY BEFORE THE BAND LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENS LATE THIS
EVENING. 

ELSEWHERE, SKIES HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS
RIDGE WILL CREST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WITH LOWS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS. 

SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME
FLURRIES MAINLY DURING THE MORNING FOR AREAS FROM AROUND I-81 AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. 

WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP IN IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH 
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE FLOW. CLOSER TO THE SFC... A 
STRONG LLJ WILL REMAIN OVR THE AREA THRU MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING LOW 
LVL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A 40 
KNOT LLJ AND LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE TO THE AREA... THE UPPR LVLS 
OF THE ATMOS WILL STAY RELATIVELY DRY. 

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT... AND STRONG WAA... EXPECT 
TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OVER THE CWA DUE TO OVER RUNNING 
THRU SUN NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP BE START ON SUN 
MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT 
AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS. 
PRECIP TYPE SAT/SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SNOW DURING THE 
EVENINGS AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. 

TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM... THEN POST 
FRONTAL TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO BACK TO THE SEASONAL NORM ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THEN BY MID WEEK THE ECMWF/GFS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANED HEAVILY
ON THE ECMWF. 

PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST WITH STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NRN CWA BUT VERY DRY
AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL END ACTIVITY BY LATE NIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO NRN NEW
ENGLAND. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED, SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA PUSHING A WARM/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH P-TYPE BEING PRIMARILY SNOW
SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY WITH
SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT DUE TO DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT RME THROUGH 08Z WHILE ALL OTHER
TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF VALID TIME AT
ELM AND BGM. 

SFC WINDS MOSTLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S
AND SE ON SAT TO GENERALLY 8-12 KT. GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE
ARE LIKELY AT KBGM AND KITH. 

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NGT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM LWR CIGS...AND PATCHY
-SHSN...-SHRA...OR A WINTRY MIX. 

SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM LWR CIGS...FOG...AND SCTD -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/-SHSN.

TUE...VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/-SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVF




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