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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 250145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AT 930 PM... CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ALLOWING THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK AND WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK TO FALL TO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 20S
IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


RED FLAG/CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS/SUSQUEHANNA
REGION OF NY AND MOST OF NORTHEAST PA. RECENT OBS SHOW FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS 2O+ MPH WITH RH VALUES BELOW CRITERIA. 

EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TGNT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE THE FIRE WX THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM. 

CLR SKIES LATE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH-
TO-MID CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S TO THE LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ENEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRI NGT...FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY SLOW-
MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW/STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TRACKING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST STATES ON
SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVG OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
TRACKING THE PRIMARY SFC LOW INTO NRN NY WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID-ATLC...WHICH EVENTUALLY BECOMES THE MAIN
FEATURE AS IT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED NEAR/OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE 24/12Z MODELS APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING THE
TREND IN PREVIOUS RUNS TOWARDS A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED 700MB WAVE
WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONGER RE-FORMING TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER THE
DELMARVA/NJ AND THUS HIGHER QPF AMTS LATER FRI NGT.

A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND SHOWS THE MAIN PRECIP-WINDOW/OPPORTUNITY
AND THUS HIGHEST POPS FRI NGT. THIS TIMING CORRESPONDS WELL WITH
THE AXIS OF HIGH PWS AND STG SLY LLJ CROSSING THE AREA. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE LOW WILL WRAP MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LGT QPF AMOUNTS MAINLY IN NY.

SAT NGT SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE FAR NE.
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH CAA. RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE NEXT TO NOTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LATE APRIL PATTERN IS FEATURED AT LONGER
RANGES WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SRN
ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A REX BLOCK WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL
NOAM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATING SLOWLY
EWD IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING NERN US/CANADIAN MARITIME CLOSED LOW. 

UNTIL THE CLOSED LOWS AND BLOCKING PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED...THE DAY 4-7 FCST WAS DERIVED FROM A 50 PERCENT BLEND
OF CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. SENSIBLE WX
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A SLOWER EVOLVING PCPN PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX SUN-MON. TEMPS
SHOULD AVG NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE APRIL TO EARLY MAY CLIMO
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVNG WILL GIVE WAY
TO A BKN CI DECK TNGT...WITH BKN100 XPCTD ON FRI. LATE ON
FRIDAY...WE INTRODUCED -RA AT WRN TERMINALS....AND PROB30'S AT ERN
SITES...WITH AREA OF -SHRA XPCTD TO MOV EWD INTO THE RGN IN
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE/FNTL SYSTEM. WIND THIS EVNG NWLY 10 KTS
DIMINISHING TO L&V...BECMG SELY ON FRIDAY INCSRNG IN THE AFTN TO
10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHRA. 
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR/NO SIG WX.
TUE...RAIN AND LOW CIGS PSBL LATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF NY AND MOST OF NORTHEAST PA UNTIL 8 PM.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY FINE FUELS...GUSTY N-NW WINDS AND LOW
RH/S WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...






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