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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 231709
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1209 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT'S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. 

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.  

PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WED-WED NIGHT...BUT MUCH HAS TO BE DETERMINED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE WAVE...IS STILL IN THE
POORLY-SAMPLED OPEN PACIFIC. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS THE STREAK OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF OREGON...EXTENDING
WELL WESTWARD. AS THE WAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
LATER TODAY TO AROUND FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO MONDAY...BETTER SAMPLING
SHOULD HELP BRING MORE STABILITY TO MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH RIGHT
NOW EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD.

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE 
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY 
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA. 

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/MDP
AVIATION...DJP






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