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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 150029
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
829 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA...WESTERN CATSKILLS...AND
TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS OF NEW YORK AS WELL AS STEUBEN COUNTY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
825 PM UPDATE...
MADE SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO INCREASE SKY COVER
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND LOWER
PROBABILITY OF FROST/FOG HERE WHILE RAISING TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IT APPEARS
THE NAM MODEL WAS CORRECT AS CURRENT 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE ALONG
WITH OBS CONFIRM AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD AROUND 5KFT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS THIN LAYER WAS FIRST SHOWN BY THE
12Z NAM, AND NOW LATER RUNS OF THE 18Z GFS AND LATEST RUC ARE
PICKING UP ON THIS LAYER. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CORRECT
THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WHILE EXPANDING TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. I WAS TEMPTED TO DROP THE
FROST ADVISORY FOR STEUBEN COUNTY BASED ON THIS BUT WANTED TO WAIT
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO TO SEE IF CLEARING IN WESTERN NY MOVES EAST.
FOR NOW I PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF BOTH FROST AND FOG FROM THE
BINGHAMTON AREA, WESTWARD, UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ITSELF. WILL
REEVALUATE AND TRY TO MAKE A DECISION ON LOWERING ANY PRODUCTS BY
10 PM.


4 PM UPDATE... MAIN ISSUE OF THE NEAR TERM IS THE LIKELY
FIRST FROST FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

MOST CLOUD COVER WAS EATEN UP BY MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR. 
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR EXISTS JUST ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING DEWPOINTS REACHING AT LEAST
MINUS-45 CELSIUS IN THE 750-600MB LAYER AND MODEL SOUNDINGS IN OUR
AREA EVEN AROUND MINUS-60. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN UPPER
30S-LOW 40S FAHRENHEIT AND WILL PROBABLY DIP SOME MORE THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING PEAKS.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED UP THE ONTARIO PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AWAY FROM THE LAKES TEMPERATURES THERE DIPPED IN
THE 30S BY DAWN WHERE IT STAYED CLEAR. IT SERVES AS A GOOD HINT OF 
WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA...WITH THIS VERY DRY AIR
MASS...AND THE SURFACE HIGH PULLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...MAINLY A
PRODUCT OF DETAILS FOR WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER MAY REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL /ESPECIALLY
MAV/ HAS BEEN TOO COOL RECENTLY FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS...YET WHERE IT
STAYS CLEAR RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL TONIGHT.

DESPITE RH FIELDS IN SOME MODELS DEPICTING LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND
900-850MB ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...POSITION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH AND DRYNESS OF AIR MASS SUGGESTS THAT MOST CLOUDS
/EVEN JUST TO OUR WEST/ WILL ERADICATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. WHILE NOT GOING TO THE BOTTOM OF MODEL GUIDANCE...I DID
AT LEAST LEAN THAT DIRECTION BECAUSE OF EXPECTATION IN MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. I HAVE HOISTED FROST ADVISORY FOR
ONEIDA-MADISON-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN COUNTIES IN THE
EAST...AS WELL AS STEUBEN COUNTY IN THE WEST...WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
FROST-YIELDING TEMPERATURES IS HIGHEST. THIS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE
CLIMATE-WISE WHERE FROST TENDS TO OCCUR FIRST IN OUR REGION. THE
COLDEST VALLEYS IN EASTERN FRINGES OF OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES
COULD EVEN GET TO AROUND FREEZING...SUCH AS CHERRY VALLEY AND
ROXBURY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TWIN TIERS...PATCHY FROST IS STILL
POSSIBLE BUT NOT AS LIKELY NOR WITH AS MUCH COVERAGE COMPARED TO
THE ADVISORY COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY COULD BE AMENDED IN AREA
THOUGH BASED ON TRENDS. HOWEVER...VALLEY FOG IN THE MAIN STEM
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING TO FROST-PRONE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR FROST CONCERNS TONIGHT...WILL
SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. THIS WILL INITIATE A 
SOUTHWESTERLY MODERATING FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT
5-9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY /SUNDAY/. INITIAL SUNSHINE WILL
YIELD TO INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND HONED GRIDS IN ACCORDINGLY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE POPS /70-80 PCT RANGE/ SWEEPING THROUGH DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. NO INSTABILITY...SO ONLY SHOWERS
EXPECTED...GENERALLY A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. POST-FRONTAL ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN IN THE MORNING BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN WITH HIGHS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

CLEARING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW DETAILS SHAKE
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO HOW LONG IT TAKES TO CLEAR...JACK
FROST MAY AGAIN TRY TO VISIT A FEW PATCHY SPOTS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.

NO CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A PERSISTENT UL TROF REMAINS FIXED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE WEATHER FAIR AND COOL. THERE IS A
TEMPORARY RELAXATION TO THE FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
AS THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE JET FLOW GOES ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL (LOW 70S).

HOWEVER...LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A
STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE UL
TROF RETURNS TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. AMAZINGLY,
THE MEAN EASTERN TROF HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE LAST NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ELM. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
AROUND 5KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT FINDING THIS HARD TO BELIEVE
AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY GONE WITH THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AFTER 05Z AT ELM EXPECT MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP AS RAPID
COOLING COMMENCES. LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z
IF SKIES CAN CLEAR.

WINDS LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE SW DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT AND TUE MORNING...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
MONDAY OVERNIGHT.

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ009-022-036-
     037-045-046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVN






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