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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 221759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE 
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE 
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING 
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO 
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED 
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS 
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES 
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING 
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY 
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE 
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES 
UNTIL AFT 06Z. 

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. 
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING 
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING 
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE 
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG. 

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN 
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH







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