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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 202329
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
729 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
5 PM UPDATE...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS AND WINDS. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. 

1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO 
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF 
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT 
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS 
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM 
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE 
TO IMPEDE RADN'L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO 
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER 
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG. 

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON 
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY 
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15 
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
TROF WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE 
STRUGGLES TO GET ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BY 12Z TUE. 
EXPECT THAT THIS DEEPENING WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK. 
WL DELAY POPS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS BUT NOT RMV COMPLETELY FM THE 
NIGHTTIME HRS AS SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE 
SHOWERS TWD 10Z TUESDAY. INCRSG CLD CVR WL PREVENT TEMPS FM DROPPING 
TOO MUCH OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT MINS SVRL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE U40S 
TO ARND 50 IN MOST AREAS. 

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE AFTN, MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND EURO WITH 
NAM BEING JUST A TAD TOO FAST. HV UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE 
DAY TUE AND PROGRESSING FM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z UNTIL LATE AFTN AS 
FRONT MVS THRU. WITH SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE 
WAY OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPS DRG THE DAY AND HV KEPT HIGHS ARND 20Z AND 
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. PW VALUES INCRS 
TO ARND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY WHICH IS 1-2 SD ABV NRML FOR APRIL. ONLY 
EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED TUE NGT. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS MOST 
OF CWA AFT 06Z, BUT H9 AND SFC TEMPS RMN ABV ZERO. HV JUST LEFT 
MENTION OF SHOWERS, THO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LGT FLURRIES OR 
EVEN LGT SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TUE NGT. EXPECT 
SHOWERS WL CONT INTO PART OF THE DAY WED WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED 
BHND FRONTAL BNDRY. HIGHS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH H8 
TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY WED NIGHT AND A SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA FROM THE WEST. THURS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY MORNING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST OVER TIMING AND THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPR LOW... HOWEVER GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT
RAIN WILL START TO FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWER MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRI-SUN... TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
HALF AN INCH OR LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SREAM OVERHEAD MAINLY FOR NY TAFS OVERNIGHT AND MON AM. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THICKER
CIRRUS TO NY TAFS WITH SCT CIRRUS TO KAVP. A VFR MID DECK WILL
AFFECT KRME AND KSYR AFT 21Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SW 5 TO 10
KNOTS MON. 

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 20% IN NEPA AND BETWEEN
25-30% ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...






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