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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 280703
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL BE ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD.
AS SRLY FLOW WORKS NORTH FM A WIDE-OPEN GOM HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY
FOR SUNDAY. AS MAIN LOW HEADS ACRS SRN CANADA EXPECT JUST CHC POPS
FOR SUN NGT, HIGHEST ACRS NRN ZONES. SRLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES AHD
OF NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY MVG THRU TUESDAY AND HV BUMPED POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THIS TIME PD. HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE NGT WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU END OF LONG TERM. 

AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV SEASONAL
VALUES UNTIL FROPA BY MID-WEEK. FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE ON TUE
NGT TEMPS WL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THRU THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT HAVE WORKED INTO TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ONLY LIKELY TO GROW IN COVERAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS COLD ADVECTION COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 09Z AT ALL SITES. LOWEST
RESTRICTIONS OF 1500FT EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM AFTER 10Z THIS
MORNING. AS HEATING COMMENCES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RISE AND BECOME
VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN CLEARING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS. 

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN





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