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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 221833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE LOWER 40S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE INTO THE 70S BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO T85 COLD ENOUGH FOR A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE AND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. 

105 AM UPDATE... SFC LOPRES IS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS OF 05Z.
INITIAL SFC FNT WHICH SPARKED OFF ISOLD TSTMS THIS EVNG IS LOCATED
FM THIS LOW CNTR DOWN ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SECONDARY AND
SHARPER CDFNT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AXIS OF THE GREAT LKS.
AS THIS SFC BNDRY PASSED THIS EVENING WINDS BRIEFLY VEERED ARND TO
THE NW AND HV CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AHD OF MAIN FRONT.
THIS FNT IS BRINGING IN CAA AND MUCH DRIER DWPTS AND EXPECT THIS
WL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS WL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FCST PD. HV POPULATED GRIDS 
WITH LAV NUMBERS AS THEY SHOW NEARLY STEADY THRU 16Z THEN RISING BY 
A DEGREE OR TWO BY AFTN, MORE WHERE THE SUN MANAGES TO PEAK THRU. 
EXPECT U40S/L50S ACRS NY ZONES WITH MAXES PEAKING ARND 60F ACRS 
NEPA. 

NOT TOO THRILLED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF SEEING SUN TODAY NORTH OF 
THE NRN TIER OF PA. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS CNTRL NY AND WITH FLOW 
OFF OF THE LK WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER/SPRINKLE 
ALONG AND BHND CDFNT INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN AFT 
18Z WITH PCPN CHCS (AT LEAST WHAT THEY ARE) DIMINISHING THRU THE END 
OF THE NR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 AM UPDATE...
SFC WINDS BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE 
MIDWEST. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS ALOFT WITH FLOW OFF THE LK CONFINED TO 
NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLRNG ELSEWHERE. DO NOT FORESEE 
ANY RVR VLY FOG TUE MRNG AS FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC RMNS 10-15KTS AND 
DRY DWPTS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ON NW FLOW. OVRNGT MINS EXPECTED TO 
SETTLE OUT ARND 40F WITH DEEPER VLYS ACRS THE CATS POSSIBLY DIPPING 
INTO THE 30S. WL NOT ADD IN PATCHY FROST AT THIS POINT AS FORMATION 
WL LKLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CAN CLR BUT WL PASS ONTO LATER 
SHIFTS TO BE WARY FOR HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.  

SKIES EXPECTED TO BCM PCLDY ON TUE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG IN 
CYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TROF AXIS BRUSHES NRN ZONES DRG THE AFTN BRINGING 
A SLGT CHC FOR SPRINKLES TO THE TUG HILL. TEMPS WL BE WARMER DRG THE 
DAY TUE AS H8 TEMPS WRM TO NR +7C AS HIPRES BUILDS IN. MIXING LOOKS 
TO OCCUR UP TO ARND 900MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S BY AFTN. 

HIPRES WL RULE THE AREA WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS 
MODERATING INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY. H5 HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SETTLE 
OUT AROUND ARND 590DM INTO THURSDAY THO MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A 
WEAKNESS IN THE UPR LVLS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN 
THE PD, WHICH CUD THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE UPCOMING NICE 
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE NORTHEAST U.S FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE RUNNING INTO THE UPR
AIR RDG BY SUNDAY BUT THE AMS WILL BE VERY DRY WITH THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OFF SHORE. THUS THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD SHUD BE
RAIN-FREE. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR BKN TO OVC CLOUDS COVER ALL TAF SITES IN C NY AND NE PA
IN A MOIST LL NW FLOW. THERE WERE OCCASIONALLY SOME LOWER MVFR
CIGS...ESPECIALLY KBGM...KITH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR WAS COLD ENOUGH AS IT
CROSSED LAKE ONTARIO THAT WE WERE SEEING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SHUD LAST
THRU THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS DVLPG AT KRME AND KSYR. AS THIS
MOISTENED AIR FLOWS UP INTO THE HILLS WE WILL ALSO SEE MVFR CIG
ESP KBGM...KITH LATE TONIGHT. KELM AND KAVP SHUD CLR OUT THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN VFR THRU THE FORECAST PD. 

AFTER 12Z...WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING ALL TAFS SHUD BECOME VFR UNDER A 
SCT-BKN DECK BY LATE MORNING TUE.

WINDS WILL BE W TO NW 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT W TO SW AFTER 00Z AND
THEN WRLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY
FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN






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