Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Binghamton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBGM 190255
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
955 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE... 
LK EFFECT FRZG DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND HAS RESULTED IN
SLIPPERY ROADS ACRS THE AREA, THUS HV OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. CAN SEE ECHOES ON RADAR LINING UP WITH FINGER LKS AS NW
FLOW CONTINUES OVR CNTRL NY AND NRN TIER OF PA. WL RUN IT THRU
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH MID SHIFT HVG THE OPTION TO EXPAND IT FURTHER
IN TIME. MOST HIRES AND MED RANGE MODELS SHOW QPF DIMINISHING BY
18Z FRIDAY AND MAY BCM LESS WIDESPREAD AFT 12Z SO THAT ADVISORY
CAN BE DROPPED. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

715 PM UPDATE...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOPRES SITTING OVR NEW BRUNSWICK WITH SFC HIGH
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. THIS PUTS CWA SQUARELY IN NW FLOW. STRONG
INVERSION ARND 5KFT PER KBUF 00Z RAOB TELLS THE ENTIRE STORY OF
ONGOING WX. SATURATED AIRMASS BLO THIS INVERSION IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR PCPN ACRS THE AREA. HWVR WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE SEEING VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE CRYSTALS THIS
EVNG. 

BUFKIT SNDGS ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL AS RADAR POPUP SKEW-T
FEATURE THUS WL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER/FRZG DRIZZLE MENTION
OVRNGT. WL EVALUATE OBS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF ICING WITH
VLYS COOLING DOWN AOB FRZG TONIGHT. PLAN TO JUST KEEP GOING WITH
SPS DUE TO PATCHY NATURE OF FZDZ BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS
FOR POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY. NO CHGS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BTWN -7C AND -8C AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION HGT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSTANT THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE
TOP BETWEEN -7C AND -9C. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GLACIATION OF
CLOUDS AT THESE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIZABLE
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SUPERCOOLED. INDEED WRN NY AND WRN
PA ARE NOW SEEING PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE HAVE
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NRN PA AND C NY GRIDS. VALLEYS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT ALL AREAS FROM THE NRN TIER
OF PA TO C NY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SPS RUNS
UNTIL 10 PM. NEXT SHIFT CAN ACCESS WHETHER ANOTHER IS NEEDED. 
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FZDZ WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO
OPTED FOR AN SPS INSTEAD OF A WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF NE PA AND C NY. THERE WILL
BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO WHERE
DOWNSLOPING PREVAILS. THE MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE
A BIT SHALLOWER BUT STILL HAVE CHC FOR FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MOST OF FRIDAY IN C NY/FAR
NRN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...INVERSION IS PUSHED DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER AND
WE WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP
MORE FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 630 PM... LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER WILL SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR
EXCEPT IFR ON THE HILL-TOP AIRPORTS AT BGM AND ITH. VSBYS WILL
RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AREAS OF VFR CIGS DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MSE/TAC






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy