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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 230510
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COOLER, DRIER, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM THIS MORNING/...
1035 PM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST UPPED
OVERNIGHT MINS SEVERAL DEGREES AS MILD S/SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING EVEN UNDER MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. CONVECTION JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY IS EXPECTED TO
ONLY TRACK SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WHICH INITIATED THIS ACTIVITY SHEARS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC.

730 PM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW CU FIELD DISSIPATING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NY. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP UNTIL WED MORNING
AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM TEMPS.

230 PM TUE UPDATE...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT NOW. THE CAP REMAINS IN
CONTROL WITH LITTLE FORCING. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP TO
00Z THEN DRY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE CUMULUS WILL PROBABLY
STRATIFY OUT AGAIN TONIGHT SO CONTINUING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS 65 TO 70.
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM TUE UPDATE... 

MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT WED PM.
LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST LIKELY THE WORST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP AHEAD OF THIS
MIDDAY IN NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS OF NY. TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
GET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BEFORE THE RAIN COOLS IT. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS THE AREA IN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. BIGGEST THREAT FROM DAMAGING WIND. WITH THE JUICY
AIRMASS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS HAIL WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING BIG. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30S SO MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K SO LIFT SHOULD BE GOOD...BUT IT IS TALL AND
SKINNY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MARGINAL. OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH CORFIDI VECTORS AROUND 10 KTS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS WILL NEED TO
WATCH HEAVY RAINERS ESPECIALLY IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS. 

THE FRONT SHOULD BE ON IT WAY TO THE EAST COAST WED EVE LEAVING
THE CWA WITH DRY WEATHER LATE WED NGT THROUGH FRIDAY. EVEN WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT IT WILL BE TOO DRY TO GENERATE SHOWERS
THURSDAY. THU NGT AND FRI A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER OUR AREA EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER
THAN NORMAL BUT PLEASANT DRY SUMMER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PORTION OF THE FCST WL START OFF WITH SFC HIPRES SHIFTING OFF 
THE EAST COAST. RETURN FLOW MAY MAKE A RUN AT CWA DRG THE AFTN HRS 
ON SAT, THO MAINLY ACRS THE SW ZONES. MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO 
DISAGREE ON EXACT LOCATION OF LOPRES SYSTEMS/FRONTAL BNDRYS IN BROAD 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL, APPEARS TO BE A VRY UNSETTLED PATTERN 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. L/WV TROF EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO UPR LOW 
BY 12Z MONDAY AND HV CONTD CHC THUNDER THRU TUE MRNG. MAX TEMPS SHUD 
BE IN THE UPR 70S AND MINS SHUD BE IN THE U50S/NR 60, DUE TO CONTD 
CLD CVR AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. 

AFTER A HUMID MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NY AND PA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONT, PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE NY TERMINALS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, BEFORE MOVING
TOWARD AVP NEAR SUNSET.

DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT/THU...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

SUN...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP






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