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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 310801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
401 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO NOW, EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHEAST US WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN NY WITH SOME THUNDER
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS, AND A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE JUST MENTIONED MOVES
EAST. WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXISTS EVERYWHERE, BY FAR THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NY STATE AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLRD BETWEEN WVS AND MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FRM...ESP IN
THE VLYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OCNL IFR CONDS AT ELM...AND SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE. SHRTLY AFT 12Z...ANOTHER WC WILL
APRCH AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...BALANCE OF THE DAYLGT HERS SHD HAVE VFR CONDS. LGT WINDS
AND VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z AND THRU THE END OF THE PD. 

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP






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