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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 250543
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1243 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN TO
OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE WINDY AND CHILLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EST UPDATE..
UPDATED WIND ADVISORY... WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT STARTING 1 AM
EST...

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN IN A LULL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FROPA MOVES EAST. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS FRONT AND IS MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE QUICKLY THAN
EXPECTED. 

COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND IS JUST
CROSSING INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO START TO
IMPACT THE CWA AROUND 06Z IN THE FAR WESTERN EDGES... THUS CHANGED
THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 TO 1AM. HIGH WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURS.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS... BELIEVE
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA WHEN THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH... DECIDED TO NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF DAY TOMORROW. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
RADARS SHOW PLENTY OF LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME PATCHES OF HEAVIER RAIN
MAINLY ACRS THE ERN 1/2 OF PA AND E OF I-81 IN C NY. THE RAIN WILL
CONT TO TRACK N TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING AND THERE LIKELY
WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF OUR AREA BY 00Z
WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT BEST. THIS INITIAL
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS NY/PA. THIS FEATURE WAS SEEN WELL IN THE 850 MB
WIND FIELDS SHOW A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX ACRS PA AND NY POINTING INTO
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER OUR
AREA. ONCE THIS LIFTS NE OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WAS PRESENTLY EXTENDED FROM SERN LWR MI TO FAR WRN OH
TO CNTRL KY RACES EASTWARD IN ASSCTN WITH A STRG UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
THE IMPETUS TO FORCE THIS FRONT THRU BETWEEN 3 AND 9Z ACRS C NY
AND NE PA.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WORKS E...IT WILL ACCELERATE THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TO ARND 60 TO 65 KNOTS AT 850 MB AS PER THE NAM JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. INDEED THE WINDS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE WILL BE RACING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LEADING TO
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES. THE 0-1 KM SHEAR WAS PROGGED TO BE AT
50 KNOTS...WITH THE 0-3 KM SHEAR AT ABT THE SAME OF 50 KNOTS WITH
THE 0-5 KM SHEAR (MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY HAVE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AT
ABT 5 KM)...OF 75 TO 80 KNOTS. TRADITIONAL 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH MIGHT
NOT APPLY AS MUCH HERE WUD BE ALMOST 100 KNOTS. MAIN PROBLEM IS
HOW UNSTABLE WITH THE LOWER AMS GET IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRNT. THERE
WILL BE INTENSE LL MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK ALMOST MOIST
ADIABATIC AHEAD OF FRONT WITH CAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG.
HIGH RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR (UNTIL 7Z)
AND THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW THRU 12Z THU ARE NOT SHWG ANY
ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTION LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS IN FORECASTS AND
MENTION IN HWO AS IT WUD NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX STRG WINDS DOWN.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT. IF A
SQUALL LINE DOES DEVELOP AND RACES EAST IT CUD SPELL A LOT OF
TROUBLE WITH HIGH WINDS.

AFTER FROPA...GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND WE WILL SEE
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BACKLASH MOISTURE ACRS C NY AND NE
PA THU AM. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL AND THE RAIN WILL MIX
WITH SOME SNOW AT TIMES LATER IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS WE CAN EASILY SEE WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ACRS OUR NRN 1/2 OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY
N OF BGM AND ELM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS DIE DOWN AND ANY LINGERING SNSH OFF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL DIE DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH RIDGING NOSING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER A PACIFIC AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS... INDICATING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RATHER QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 50 IN
MANY PLACES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
TO AROUND -10 TO -12 OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL
BE STRONGLY ANTICYCLONIC IMPLYING LOTS OF DRY AIR AND LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF WAVES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. IF THIS PATTERN IS REALIZED... A COOL MOSTLY DRY PERIOD CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL BE AT ELM AND ITH AT
START OF TAF VALID TIME THEN QUICKLY MOVING INTO RME AND AVP BY
07Z. MVFR RESTRICTIONS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS EXPECT TERMINALS WILL STAY MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING VFR AFTER 20Z FOR ALL SITES
WITH EXCEPTION OF RME. RME SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH END OF TAF
VALID TIME.

FOR A BRIEF HOUR TONIGHT, EXPECT LLWS AT RME, SYR, BGM AND AVP.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SW BY 07Z TONIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH 15-20KTS SUSTAINED, GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AT TIMES.


OUTLOOK...

FRI/SAT...VFR. 

LATE SAT NGT TO SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN-
SNOW.

SUN NGT/MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022-023-025-036-037-044>046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...PVF




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