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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
UPR LVL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIT WAVES AT US AND KEEPS SCATTERED 
CONVECTION DVLPNG AT RANDOM TDA. AS CONVECTION HEADS EAST THIS EVNG, 
EXPECT IT TO BCM A LITTLE MORE INTENSE ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 
CORRIDOR IN AREA OF BETTER LIFT AND HIGHER TERRAIN. HWVR THRU 00Z 
EXPECT LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. MLCAPES OF 
1000 J/KG HV OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH BEST 0-6KM 
SHEAR RMNG SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS MAY SEE AN ODD STRONG STORM THIS 
AFTN/EVNG BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. 

STORMS WL LKLY PRODUCE 0.50-1.00 INCHES PER HOUR BUT WL BE FINE IF 
THEY CAN KEEP MVG. IF STORMS CAN GET ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
OR A LURKING BNDRY, FLOODING (PONDING AND/OR FLASH) COULD BCM AN 
ISSUE. HWVR NO THREAT LOOKS IMMINENT AT THIS TIME AND WL CONTINUE TO 
MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO.

THUNDER WL BCM LESS AFT 04Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SHOWERS EXPECTED AS 
INSTABILITY WANES. VRY JUICY AIRMASS WL RMN LOCKED OVR CNY AND NEPA 
TONIGHT AND HV ADDED IN AREAS OF VLY FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG TO 
RMNDR OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
700MB WV WL SKIRT THRU THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH CHC POPS 
CWA-WIDE INTO THE AFTN, VRY SLOWLY COMING TO AN END ACRS NRN ZONES 
TWD 00Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME, SFC HIPRES WL BE BUILDING IN FM NEW 
ENGLAND RESULTING IN STABLE EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO BRING AN END TO 
PCPN. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WL BE SIMILAR TO PRIOR DAY, ARND 80 IN THE 
WEST AND SOUTH WITH DWPTS RMNG UP IN THE 60S GIVING A HUMID AIRMASS 
TO THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN. 

AS TROF DROPS THRU AND HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE EAST EXPECT PCPN TO 
WIND DOWN BY 12Z SATURDAY. WITH DIURNAL HTG ON SATURDAY EXPECT ISOLD 
SHOWERS TO POP UP THO MAY SEE MORE SCTD SHOWERS ACRS NEPA AS FINAL 
WV PUSHES THRU DRG THE AFTN. TEMPS WL SETTLE OUT RIGHT ARND NORMAL 
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
PROVIDE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY BRING THE
AREA SOME SHOWERS.

245 PM UPDATE...
WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH 588 DM
HEIGHTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS RIDGE WITH VERY
QUIET WEATHER. WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
THE SURFACE IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. EVENTUALLY THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH, MUCH WARMER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE VFR...MOST TERMINALS
SHOULD BE IMPACTED AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...AND TIMING OF TSRA TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS HONES INTO MOST
LIKELY PERIOD AS BEST AS POSSIBLE /DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO AMENDING
AS THINGS EVOLVE/. SYR-RME MAY GET MORE CONVECTION...BUT EARLIER
CONVECTION FORCED STABILIZING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND THUS
ACTUAL CB IS LESS CERTAIN COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS. MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...AND VERY WEAK FLOW/LACK OF
MIXING TONIGHT...WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR DEVELOPMENT 
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY WORSE THAN THAT FOR KELM WHERE FOG WILL
SHOULD TURN DENSE. AT LEAST MVFR FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MIDDAY...YET ALSO NEW SCATTERED SHRA-
TSRA POSSIBLE. VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT- VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT SE TO S FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THROUGH FRI NGT...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY KELM.

SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...MDP






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