000
FXUS61 KBGM 221744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE... 
BUSY WX DAY SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION AS CHANCES FOR RENEWED
CONVECTION AND SEVERE WX DEVELOPMENT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS PROGRESS. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER WITH
MID-MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON THE HEELS OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM WESTERN PA INTO
WESTERN NY. SO FAR THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEHAVED BUT ATTENTION REMAINS
FOCUSED ON ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH NOW RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN OH. WITH TIME TODAY...THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S LATER TODAY.

COMPARING TODAY/S SETUP TO YESTERDAY/S...THE ONE THING THAT IS
IMMEDIATELY APPARENT IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED
JET STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH IN INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN PA WILL BE PLACED UNDER
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LIFT
ARRIVING WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OHIO VLY SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE SFC...LATEST 13Z SUBJECTIVE HAND ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL LAKE PLAIN
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...A LINGERING
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN NY JUST NORTH
OF THE CWA WHICH COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.

SUMMING EVERYTHING UP AND CONSIDERING THAT THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40-45 KTS LATER
TODAY ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ISOLATED
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. QUICK LOOK AT BOTH THE
12Z BUF AND PIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR STILL
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A
SLGT RISK CWA WIDE WITH A 30% HAIL AND WIND RISK. THE OTHER
CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS BLENDED TPW SATELLITE
GRAPHICS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES. OBVIOUSLY WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH THINGS AS THEY UNFOLD AS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CONVECTION ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY MAY WARRANT A QUICK
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE PLAIN AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGION.

430 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACRS THE WRN CATS AND
THE SRN TIER AS BNDRYS LURK IN THE VICINITY. VRY SLIGHT WVS RIDING
UP IN SWRLY FLOW ARE ACTING TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION AND MAY CONT
TO DO SO AT RANDOM TONIGHT. WMFNT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE FAR
NRN ZONES THO IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
FEATURE WL LIFT THRU THE DAY. AS IT STANDS NOW, MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE CLEARLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS
ALOFT.

WITH TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN AND DWPTS INTO THE 60S, CAPES WL 
AVG ARND 1000 J/KG GIVE OR TAKE. STRONG WV AT H5 FCST TO APPCH FM 
THE WEST TWD 00Z THIS EVNG, THO ANY SUBTLE FEATURE CAN RIPPLE THRU AT 
ANYTIME. THUS, HV STARTED POPS OFF THIS MRNG AS SCTD AND AS WV 
APPCHS AND HTG COMMENCES HV GONE CLSR TO LKLY AFT 21Z ACRS NRN ZONES 
IN VICINITY OF WMFNT. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED YDA, POTENTIAL CERTAINLY 
EXISTS FOR SVR WX AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. 

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DVLPMNT WL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH 
FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO PUT UP A SHORT-FUSED WATCH ONCE AREA 
BCMS MORE CLR. AS IT STANDS NOW, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES 
OCCURRED IN A SHORT PD OF TIME YDA EVNG ACRS SRN ONONDAGA, CENTRAL 
MADISON AND SRN ONEIDA CNTYS AND THESE WL BE THE AREAS TO WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
TONIGHT WL FEATURE UL LOW EJECTING EAST INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. STRONG 
SRLY FLOW WL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH 
40MM PW VALUES POISED TO ENTER INTO THE TN VLY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT 
THIS TO MV NWRD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WITH UL SYSTEM APPCHG THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MRNG AND RIDGE GRADUALLY STARTING TO BREAK 
DOWN, WL LKLY SEE INCRS IN POPS BY 12Z THUR. OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT 
EXPECTED TO RMN IN THE 60S UNDER MOIST AIRMASS. 

BY 00Z FRIDAY CDFNT WL BISECT CWA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANAFRONT 
PCPN WL OCCUR AS UL TROF LAGS BHND FNT. THUS, HV KEPT POPS IN LKLY 
RANGE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS. 
INSTABILITY IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLD CVR, HWVR IT 
APPEARS WINDS AND FRCG WL BE STRONGEST. SO WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF 
POSSIBLE SVR IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. 

FROPA OCCURS ARND MIDNIGHT FRI NGT WITH UL TROF STILL HANGING BACK 
TO THE WEST AND NOT MVG THRU UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z FRIDAY. WL CONTINUE 
WITH LKLY POPS THRU THIS TIME WITH JUST CHC SHOWERS BYND. STRONG CAA 
WL OCCUR FOLLOWING FROPA WITH OVRNGT MINS DIPPING INTO THE 40S ACRS 
THE LK PLAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S ACRS SERN CNTYS. 

CAA CONTS DRG THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SKIES CLRNG FM WEST TO EAST AND 
TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO NR 60F. WINDS WL INCRS AS PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN SFC LOPRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND 
BUILDING 1030MB HIPRES. FAIRLY RAW DAY COMPARED TO PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

PD BEGINS WITH A LRG AND COOL CANADIAN HP BLDG INTO THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEEP LOW OVER NEW ENG. H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0C BY
SUN MRNG WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LEFTOVER PCPN IN THE ERN ZONES.
REMAINDER OF THE PD SHOWS THE HIPRES BLDG IN AND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS.LTL TO NO CHANCE OF PCPN AFT SUN MRNG. GRNLY FLWD HPC GUID
FOR THE PD...ALTHOUGH DID LWR THE TEMPS A BIT TO BE CLSR TO THE
MEX GUID. 


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

CONV DVLPD OVER THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA BUT IS MVG AWAY FROM THE
TAF SITES. SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW A BRK IN THE ACTION FLWD BY SOME
CONV LTR IN THE PD AS ANOTHER WV PASSES. BEGAIN THE TAF PD WITH
VFR CONDS AND ADDED TEMPO FOR CONV LTR IN THE DAY. COLD FNT WILL
APPROACH FOR LATE IN THE PD SO HAVE FCST A CHANCE OF SHWRS AFT 12Z
WITH MVFR CONDS. WITH WILL GNRLY BE LGT AND SWLY THRU THE PD...BUT
WITH GUSTS PSBL INVOF TRWS. 

OUTLOOK...

THU/THU NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI - SAT...PSBL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

SUN - MON...VFR. BREEZY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM