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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 210808
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH WARMER AIR. A WARM FRONT COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
720 PM UPDATE...LE BANDS PUSHING OFF ONTARIO AND ERIE THIS
EVENING. ERIE BAND BRINGING SOME LGTR SNOW SHWRS ACROSS THE NRN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE SYR AREA. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE ONTARIO
BAND FCST TO DRIFT SWRD INTO NRN ONEIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
RADAR ANIMATION SHOWS A NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH PERHAPS A SLGT
SWRD DRIFT. MESO SCALE MODEL FCST DROP THE BAND INTO NRN ONEIDA AS
EARLY AS 3Z IN RESPONSE TO A SHRP WV DROPPING THRU THE ERN LAKES.
SOME CNCRN THAT THIS TIMING MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST AS THE WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WV WELL BACK OVER SW ONTARIO RESULTING IN LTL
RESPONSE FROM THE BAND SO FAR. ALSO...SHRP NW FLOW DVLPS BHD THE
WV PERHAPS LIMITING THE TIME THE BAND SPENDS IN THE WARNING AREA.
ATTM WILL CONT WITH THE CRNT FCST BUT MONITOR THE MVMT OF THE BAND
FOR PTNL UPDATES. 


AS OF 430 PM...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO STILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEY WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS
BEEN FORECAST. LAKE SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
ONEIDA...ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
FORECAST.

BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS...THE LAKE BAND OFF LAKE ERRIE WILL NOT
PRODUCE THAT MUCH SNOW OVER STUEBEN COUNTY AND ONLY 1 TO 4 INCHES
HAS BEEN FORECAST THERE. 

FOR THE REST OF THE NY ZONES...CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE PENNSYLVANIA ZONES. 

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE
DECREASING. 

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
REMNANT OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES AND ONONDOGA COUNTY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS TO LIKELY POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH
DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. 

DRY FOR MOST OF SATURDAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE
FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH. ALTHOUGH WARMING WILL BE
OCCURRING ALOFT...SOME AREAS WILL COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IF PCPN OCCURS. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

MUCH WARMER SUNDAY WITH ONLY A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A STRONG SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. ON MONDAY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY COLD AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER OVER THE AREA. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS NORTH OF THE FA BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS IN
THE FAR NORTHERN FA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
MAXES ON TUESDAY COOLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. BY LATE WEEK
TEMPS WILL FALL TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND OFF ONTARIO IS JUST NORTH OF THE
KRME TERMINAL AT 06Z. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND PUSH THIS BAND THROUGH THE KRME/KSYR TERMINALS.
BETWEEN 07Z-13Z THE BAND WILL BRING IFR AND OCCASIONALLY BELOW ALT
MIN CONDITIONS TO BOTH TERMINALS. AFTER 13Z, PRIMARILY JUST
FLURRIES AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR CIGS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS PRIMARILY LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS
AROUND 4K FT BY MID MORNING. AT KITH, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST WITH MUCH OF THE REGION
SCATTERING OUT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.

LATER SUN/MON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN.

TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ018-036-037.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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