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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 010651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION. WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE FOG DOES NOT
BURN OFF AS QUICKLY... THUS EXPECT FOG TO LAST THROUGH 14Z. ONCE
FOG LIFTS WE WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER WED. A WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NY/PA WED
AFTERNOON CREATING ENOUGH FORCING FOR CLOUD COVERAGE OVER PA TO
INCREASE. BELIEVE IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE... SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. THURS THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO RETROGRAGE
AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER NY. THIS MAY
CREATED ENOUGH OF A SFC BOUNDARY TO CREATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AS IT SLIDES SOUTH. CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE LOW.

TEMPS WED AND THURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY (ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT) ON THURSDAY. THE STACKED
RIDGE THEN RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEEM TO BE TARGETING ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT TUESDAY...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
INFLUENCE WORKING INTO THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG. 

AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SET UP AS OF THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KELM/KITH/KBGM TO SEE IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
BELOW ALTERNATE MINS THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE KELM
COULD SEE VIS GO BELOW AIRPORT MINS NEAR SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FOR KAVP/KRME EXPECT MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY
MORNING. KSYR SHOULD STAY VFR. ALL SITES GO VFR BY 14Z.

WINDS TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. THEN VARIABLE LIGHT
WINDS TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN/PCF



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