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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 060549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1249 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
935 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES. THE KBGM
VWP WAS SHOWING A 310-320 DEGREE FLOW FROM 1 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET AGL BUT
THE SFC FLOW WAS BACKING TO THE WEST NOW AND PUSHING THE LIGHT
SNOW FLURRIES MORE TO THE EAST OF WHERE WE HAD THEM EARLIER.
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHRT
WAVE TROF WILL PASS E OF THE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z WITH SUBSDC
KICKING IN. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC RDG TO COVER PA AND NY LATE
TONIGHT AND SHUD GRADUALLY END THE LES SNOW FLURRIES AS DRY
ADVECTION OCCURS AND THE INVERSION IS PRESSED DOWNWARD. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE IN THIS SEEMINLY NEVER
ENDING WINTER OF 2014-15. MINS SHUD DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY OF OUR
COLDER VALLEYS AND STAY CLOSE TO ZERO ON OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER 300
FLOW BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO DRY AIRMASS AND LOW
INVERSION HEIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF DRY AIR. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND
20. AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REGION WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION THAN THE NAM. SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA TO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE NRN CWA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
IN WAA FORCING. ACCUMS OVER THE NRN CWA WILL BE UP TO TWO INCHES.
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MAXES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPR 20S
WITH READINGS LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE
BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWS TAKING TRACKS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING
IN A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY, BEFORE DEPARTING
EARLY MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT IN ANY EVENT A COUPLE TO AT MOST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AS HIGHS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
FOLLOWING THIS FIRST SYSTEM THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHIELD ARE PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
HIGHS TUESDAY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
FOR KRME...RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE WILL YIELD VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR-
IFR VIS AT TIMES 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. VERY LIGHT NON-
RESTRICTIVE FLAKES ALSO TO OCCUR AT KSYR FOR A TIME BEFORE DAWN.
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...THOUGH STARTING ABOUT 22Z
ONWARD A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS 20-25 KFT AGL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS EITHER VARIABLE OR LIGHT NW TO SW LESS THAN 10 KTS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...VFR.

SAT-SUN-MON...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM IN SCT -SHSN AS SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES PASS THROUGH...ESPECIALLY CNY TERMINALS.

TUE....VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP






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