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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 190759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TODAY...INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL
MODERATE SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND EVEN MORE SO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING SPRINKLES ACRS OTSEGO CO AS WK SFC FRNT
SLOWLY SLIPS S AND E ACRS C NY AND NE PA. FRNT EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM ONEONTA NY TO ABT TOWANDA PA. THIS FRNT WAS TIED TO AN UPR
LVL WAVE THAT WAS MOVG ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND HENCE DEEPEST LIFT
WAS FARTHER EAST WHERE THERE WAS MORE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BY
12Z...FRNT WILL BE S INTO SRN PA WHERE IT WASHES OUT. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF BKN POST FRONTAL CLDS THAT WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PA BY 9Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. SO HAVE VARYING
AMNTS OF CLD CVR FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

AFTER SUNRISE...STRGR COLD AIR ADVECTION ABV THE SFC LAYER LEADS
TO COLD ENUF TEMPERATURES AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SCT-
BKN SC/CU FORMING WITH INSOLATION AND THE DIURNAL GROWTH OF THE
BNDRY LAYER FOR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF C NY AND NRN PA. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL
SHOW A BAND OF VERY HIGH RH AT 925 MB ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
REACHING C NY/NRN PA ARND 12Z. AFTER 15Z THE MODELS MIX OUT THIS
MOISTURE. THE EURO/GFS...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF...WRFARW AND HRRR EVEN
GO AS FAR AS SPITTING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP SUGGESTING SOME
SPRINKLES. FOR NOW I JUST INCREASED THE CLD CVR FOR MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN MIX IT OUT BY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS WHETHER
SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE WARRANTED FOR LATER THIS MORNING WITH NEXT
UPDATE. ITS PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT AND OPTED TO KEEP CURRENT
FORECAST GOING WHICH IS WELL COLLOBARATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER 
THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP
WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT. HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE... 
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LARGER SEPARATION BETWEEN
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT
/ESPECIALLY FIRST HALF BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE
IN/...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER TREND OF GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY...AFTER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM AGREE NOW ON WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TO SWEEP COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE RAIN ITSELF IS A SOLID BET...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHICH TIME
OF DAY WILL BE THE MAIN RAINFALL. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND AS THE TIME NEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HEM IN WHICH SPECIFIC HOURS WILL BE INVOLVED. FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH...TO WHICH
WE ANTICIPATE LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN DAMPENING PLANS
FOR GENERAL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO TOO STABLE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...SO NO LIGHTNING EXPECTED.

RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AND THEN EVENTUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK TO UPPER 50S-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE... 
BEHIND SURFACE FRONT FROM TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. GFS-ECMWF RUNS BOTH KEEP
IT AS AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH...BEFORE DIFFERING ON ITS
EVOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES GET SUB-540
DECAMETERS FOR A TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL WITH THAT UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

DRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CHARGE AT SURFACE...AND RIDGING OCCURRING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALSO
MODERATING...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY...BUT NEXT WAVE MAY ALSO BE
APPROACHING BY THEN WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF COURSE WILL BE SORTED OUT BETTER IN COMING
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
EXTENDED FROM ABOUT ONEONTA NY TO TOWANDA PA IN THE WFO BGM
FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS POST FRONTAL BKN-OVC CLOUDS AND JUST A
FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS OTSEGO CO. THESE INSIGNIFICANT
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ERLY THIS
MORNING.

THE BKN-OVC POST FRONTL CLOUDS WAS MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT KSYR...KRME...KITH AND KBGM. AS THE FRONT
WORKS FARTHER SOUTH LL DRYING WILL OCCUR AND SHUD SCATTER OUT THIS
MOISTURE SO EXPECT JUST SCT CLDS BY ARND 8-10Z. 

AFTER SUNRISE...COLDER AIR WILL BLOW IN ABV THE SFC LAYER WHICH
WILL BE DECOUPLED AND HENCE THE SFC DRYING WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SCT-BKN CU/SC LAYER TO DEVELOP WITH INSOLATION FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING. I EXPECT MAINLY VFR 3500 TO 5000 FEET CLD BASES.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRGR WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AND THIS CLOUD LAYER SHUD MIX OUT TO MAINLY CLR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CLR SKIES WILL REMAIN AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SW TO NW AFTER FROPA AT KAVP AROUND 07Z OR
SO. REST OF TAF SITES WILL HAVE W-NW WINDS MAINLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE A DECENT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE WINDS VEER FROM THE NW TO THE N BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJN
FIRE WEATHER...






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