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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211510
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1010 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DOWNWIND
FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH WARMER AIR. A WARM FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE... MIXED LYR FLOW HAS VEERED A BIT INTO A 300-320
TRAJ LATE THIS MRNG...STEERING RESIDUAL LES BANDS MORE INTO SRN
ONONDAGA...SRN MADISON...AND THE UPR SUSQ RGN. THUS...WE'VE
DROPPED THE LES WRNG FOR NRN ONEIDA AND THE LES ADVSY IN SRN ONEIDA.

IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER 1-2" PERHAPS MAY FALL IN SRN
CAYUGA...SRN ONONDAGA...SRN MADISON...ERN
TOMPKINS...CORTLAND...AND NRN CHENANGO CNTYS THROUGH
MIDDAY...BEFORE THE LOW-LVL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AGN...AND ALSO
FURTHER DRYING OCCURS IN THE COLUMN. SOME OF OUR HI-RES MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A QUICK RE-EMERGENCE OF A SINGLE BAND IN NRN
ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA CNTYS LTR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR...ITS PRESUMED TRANSITORY NATURE...ALG
WITH WEAKENING LES MECHANICS (DECREASING MOISTURE AND A LWRG
CAPPING INVERSION) SHOULD LIMIT ADDTNL ACCUMS IN THESE AREAS.

OUTSIDE OF LES AREAS...OCNL FLRYS SHOULD PREVAIL ACRS THE TWIN
TIERS INTO EARLY AFTN...WITH GENERALLY DRY AND SUNNIER CONDS FOR
OUR SRN ZNS (WYO/LACK VLYS AND THE SRN POCONOS).

HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD AND SHOULD RANGE MAINLY IN THE 20S THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 4 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES WITH A WARNING IN NRN ONEIDA AND AN ADVISORY
IN SRN ONEIDA MADISON ONONDAGA. STAYING THE COURSE. MAY BE ABOVE
TO DROP THE WARNING BEFORE 7 AM. THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND IS IN SRN OSWEGO TO ONEIDA AND FAR NRN ONONDAGA AND MADISON.
THIS BAND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. INTENSITY MODERATE WITH 30 DBZ
REFLECTIVITY IN OSWEGO DROPPING TO 20 IN MY CWA. MAYBE AN INCH AN
HOUR. THE BAND WILL BE OVER SYR BY 7 AM AND LAST INTO THE AFTN.
THE BAND WILL WEAKEN WITH WAA ALOFT, LOSING THE LAKE HURON
CONNECTION, AND WITH WEAKENING WINDS AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH
MOVING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK
UP MIDDAY WITH POOR ORGANIZATION. THE BAND WILL HEAD BACK NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN OUT OF ONEIDA LATE TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY/WARNING AREA BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS COOLER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S. 

TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS LEAVING AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TEMPS
WILL TUMBLE TO 10 TO 18 AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SFC HIGH ON THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FLOW SENDS MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN INTO THE AREA SAT AFTN TO SUN NGT. SAT AFTN AND NGT A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS SAT IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND 30 SAT NGT.
WARM AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. MIXED LIGHT PRECIP TO START WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES
FROM SULLIVAN TO ONEIDA. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW A TENTH OF
AN INCH. BY 9 AM SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
THE RAIN WILL BE OVER.  KEPT THE THREAT OF FZRA IN THE HWO. 

A BREAK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE A SFC LOW AND UL TROF LIFTS NE
OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY M40S
TO L50S THEN STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UNDER HALF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A STRONG SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. ON MONDAY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY COLD AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER OVER THE AREA. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS NORTH OF THE FA BUT WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS IN
THE FAR NORTHERN FA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
MAXES ON TUESDAY COOLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. BY LATE WEEK
TEMPS WILL FALL TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS WEAKENING QUICKLY AT 12Z
WHILE DROPPING SOUTH. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z THEN JUST
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS PRIMARILY LOW VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT BY MID MORNING. AT KITH,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SCATTERING OUT OR BECOMING CLEAR.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING 
AT 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.

LATER SUN/MON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN.

TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ018-036.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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