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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 260531
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
750 PM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION IN THE WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPS TO CAPTURE
REALITY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GREAT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SCT CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY FOG FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AS THIS MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LONG-WAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY
SATURDAY... WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND A LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE
DAY... THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. POPS FOR THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
MAX OUT AROUND 40-50 PCT SATURDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN GETS MORE COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT PROBABLY REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. HOWEVER THE INCREASING MOISTURE... INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH 20-30 KT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET MOVING EAST MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT.

DEW POINTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL
BE QUESTIONABLE AS ONE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DETAILS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW WHICH MAY CONTAIN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. KEPT POPS SUNDAY
IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHICH IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL WINDS OF
30-40 KTS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY PRESENT DETAILS WILL BE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THERE COULD WELL BE ANOTHER MCS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER FORCING MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE GONE WITH POPS INCREASING TO AROUND 60
PERCENT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROBABLY OVER 1.5 INCHES
HEAVY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY BY MONDAY AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HV FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE AS MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON OVERALL PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROF
IN THE EAST THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. DISCREPANCIES EXIST
WITH REGARD TO SFC PATTERN AS 00Z EC HAS WELL-DVLPD SFC LOW ALONG
THE NY BIGHT 12Z TUE WHILE 12Z GFS AND CMC HAVE A SFC TROF ALONG
THE EAST COAST AT THIS SAME TIME. MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HV SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SFC LOW AT THE SAME TIME. 

ONLY IMPACT THIS HAS WUD BE HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS FOR TUE AS
ANY SFC LOW IN THE AREA WL ADD TO THE CONVERGENCE AND COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HTG THIS WUD LKLY BOOST POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS HV KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS, WHICH IS BASICALLY WHAT WPC HAS. 

EACH AFTN WL HV THE CHC FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO DIURNAL HTG AS
UL TROF LINGERS ACRS ERN HALF OF THE NATION. TEMPS WL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODERATE AFT FROPA OCCURS ON TUE MRNG WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S AND LOWS IN THE L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITINS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. IR SATELLITE
AND OBS SHOW MAINLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ADVECTING OVER NY AND PA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME LOWERING OF THE CLOUD CIGS TO ARND
9-15 KFT BY LATE MORNING AND THEN A SCT-BKN CU LAYER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET SAT. THEN ANOTHER MID DECK
WILL FOLLOW WITH VFR CIGS ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT S TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN AFTERNOON SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJN






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