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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 272001
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
140 PM UPDATE...
LOPRES IS SPINNING OFF OF CAPE COD AS OF 18Z. DISJOINTED BAND OF 
SNOW IS ROTATING INTO ERN NY AND WRN CATS AND SEPARATED FM MAIN BAND 
OF SNOW ASSOC WITH NOREASTER.  THIS IS LKLY ASSOC WITH H3 JET 
ENTRANCE REGION AND IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. AS JET STREAK LIFTS 
NORTH THIS AFTN THINKING IS THAT SNOW HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS IT 
IS GOING TO GET. 

SNOW WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST DRG 
THE EVNG HRS WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FM THE WEST. THIS WL KEEP CWA 
DRY AFT 06Z AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLR FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-81 
CORRIDOR. 

WITH A SUPPLY OF NRLY AIR EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF 
MET/MAV NUMBERS. HIGH PRESSURE WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST 
TONIGHT THO WINDS WL STILL BE HIGH GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT.

WIND CHILL TEMPS WL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT BUT SHUD 
RMN WARM ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE..
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOSUNNY 
SKIES FOR THE AREA DRG THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS WL RMN BLO NORMAL 
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RMN IN THE 20S WITH TEENS IN THE 
NORMAL CLDR AREAS. 

CLIPPER SYSTEM WL DIVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH 
HIPRES IN CONTROL OF CWA THRU 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL 
INCREASE IN CLDS FM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION PCPN WL BEGIN TO SPREAD 
LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. FORCING CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE 
PRESENT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS SO HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL SNOW FOR THUR 
NGT. NW FLOW BHND FRONT WL MV IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LK EFFECT EXPECTED 
DRG THE DAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO -18 AND THAT WL BE COLD ENUF FOR LK 
SNOWS TO FALL IN 310-320 FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COLD AND ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD, NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL USHER
IN VERY COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO THE FORECAST PROFILES BEING TOO COLD
FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT. LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES
FOR SATURDAY WITH FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
LIKELY ARRIVING BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...

AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM WORKS BACK TO
THE WEST, EXPECT A LITTLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRME/KAVP
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THIS EVENING. FOR THE REMAINING SITES, MOISTURE FROM
THE FINGER LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND KITH WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS BUT PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. KBGM WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR KITH/KBGM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT KSYR/KELM TO REMAIN MAINLY
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 


NW TO N WINDS AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS LATE EVENING AND BEYOND OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...
 
WED NIGHT / THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW BY LATE DAY. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ048.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF




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