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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 240132
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
932 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS SHIFT'S POP FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT AS CYCLONE PULLS
NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE NEAR
TERM HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN FA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT, AS
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS WEAK AND FADING FAST.

NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ALTERED.

105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE 
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND 
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT 
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER 
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.  

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND 
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD 
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS 
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA. 

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU 
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY 
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON 
REGION.  

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL 
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M 
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES. 
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT 
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH 
HGTS ON THE RISE. 

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS 
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL 
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE 
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS. 

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL 
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND 
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS 
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND 
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z. 

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW 
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT'S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS. 

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
MVFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AT KBGM IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ON FRIDAY, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER TO JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD. 

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT/SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM






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