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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS. 

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW. 

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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