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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK, AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
JUST WEST OF SYRACUSE. WE HAD A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EARLIER OVER CNY BUT RIGHT NOW THE RADAR IS QUIET. SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE UP AFTER 18Z FROM NEAR THE BINGHAMTON AREA, SOUTH AND
EAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MLCAPES OF OVER 1000 J/KG, AND
LI'S APPROACHING -4 DURING THIS TIME. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE IT TOWARD THE NY/PA
LINE. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN
NY STATE. BASED ON THIS A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD FOR THE AREAS JUST MENTIONED. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL, HIGHEST RISK WOULD BE NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY
NY WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE MOST SUN. DECENT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WILL BE TEMPERED BY MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 BULK SHEARS OF
25 KTS) AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM BULK SHEARS OF 10 KTS
OR LESS). STORM MODE WOULD BE PULSE STORMS OR A FEW MINI LINES,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH INSTABILITY OVER
1000, BUT HIGH -20C LEVELS (26KFT) AND MINIMAL MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL
LIMIT FULL POTENTIAL.


3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING
TO FORM ON THE SOUTH SHORE. VALLEY FOG HAS MANAGED TO FORM AGAIN
IN NE PA AND THE SRN CATSKILLS. THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL BY 8 AM
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

COLD FRONT PROVIDING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVERGENCE WHILE ALOFT LAPSE
RATES INCREASE WITH THE COLDER AIR. SFC DEWPTS INCREASE INTO THE
M60S. CAPES JUMP TO 1K MIDDAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER, CATSKILLS AND
NE PA. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KTS DESPITE THE LIGHT LOW LEVELS AND
NOT MUCH OF A LLJ. THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THE MODELS
SHOWED YESTERDAY. SPC HAS GONE TO A SEE TEXT AND A 5 PERCENT CHC
OF DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. SOME MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM FORMING A
BROKEN LINE OF TSTORMS ALONG INTERSTATES 88 AND
86...ONEONTA...BGM...ELM LINE...WHICH DROPS SE THIS AFTN INTO NE
PA. LARGE HAIL MAY BE HARD TO PRODUCE WITH A STORM MOTION OF 10 TO
15 KTS.

LATE AFTN WITH THE FRONT ON THE COAST AND DIURNAL HEATING WANING
CONVECTION WILL DIE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA. A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE THIS EVENING. 

NW FLOW OF DRY AIR WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DROP TEMPS INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA 12Z FRI. AHEAD OF THE LL WINDS WILL BE NORTH SO DESPITE
THE +7C 850MB TEMPS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR WILL BE UNDER 5K FT AND THE
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR ABOVE IT. FRIDAY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AND
WARMER. CLOSE TO NORMALS. 

FRI NGT DEEP SW FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR AND EVENTUALLY
MOISTURE. LATE THERE COULD BE A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE IS. KEPT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2PM TUESDAY UPDATE...
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS SUGGESTS SOME SHRA WORK INTO C NY WITH THE
EURO AND CMC SHOWING SOME PRECIP N OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
WENT WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S FORECASTS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHC
SHRA FRI NGT. SAT THRU SUNDAY HAVE CHC POPS SHRA AND TSRA AS FRNT
PRESSES EWRD INTO THE ERN LAKES AND SRLY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WORK INTO NY AND PA. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON
SAT THAN SUNDAY WHEN THE FRNT WILL BE CLOSER AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGER. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LINGERING SHRA AND SOME TSRA
EVEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND SOME SORT
OF SRN BRANCH WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRNT. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT
ARE NOT ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF DETAILED TIMING SO WILL CONT WITH A
BLEND OF HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO/S POPS WHICH IS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TO START AND WILL
CREEP TO ABV NORMAL BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM DISCUSSION...
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS TRAVERSED THE FINGER LAKES AND SKIRTED THE
KSYR TERMINAL IN THE LAST HOUR. VFR ACROSS THE BOARD SO FAR, WITH
KSYR CEILING DROPPING TO 3200 FEET WITH THE SHOWER PASSAGE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE RADAR COVERAGE UPSTREAM, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ONCE INSTABILITY INCREASES. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR ANY OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. NONE OF OUR SITES ARE WITHIN CCFP
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS.

LOOK FOR SW WINDS TODAY AT 6 TO 9 KNOTS, AND A SCATTERED VFR CU DECK
DURING THE AFTERNOON.


2 AM DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND THEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, BUT PROBABILTY FOR SUCH AN EVENT
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 9 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT-SUN...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJP






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