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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
954 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON. 
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 11.9 MINUS 3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH A LITTLE CLEARING IN NW
ONEIDA COUNTY NY AND A FEW SMALLER BREAKS HERE AND THERE BUT THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS ENTRENCHED BASED ON THE SATELLITE LOOPS. ACARS
DATA AND THE 12Z ROABS FROM BUF AND ALY ALL SHOW A SHARP INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB ACRS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THIS SHARP INVERSION. THE FLOW
UP THRU THE INVERSION LAYER WAS WEAKENING FROM THE NORTH AS OF 12Z
THIS MORNING. AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC IT WILL
EXTEND DOWN TO THE SFC AND IT IS NEARLY BAROTROPIC. HENCE THE FLOW
AT 925 MB WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE INVERSION LAYER AND WHERE
SATURATION IS OBSERVED TURNS FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO CALM BY
AFTERNOON TO SRLY BY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNDER WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. HI RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM12 SUGGEST THAT
THE LO CLOUDS REMAIN CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW AND THEN ADVECT
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. OUR LOCAL WRF SUGGESTS ENUF INSOLATION
ALLOWS FOR EVEN MORE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS...BUT BY TONIGHT THIS ENDS
AND THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW LOOKS TO SOCK IN THE ENTIRE AREA AGAIN.
WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE BREAKS
AND FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES THRU TONIGHT. 

BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...THE DIURNAL TRENDS
WILL BE SMALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE ARE BASICALLY AT THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR. TWEAKED GRIDS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN 
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. 

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... 
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. THIS IS FINALLY CAUSING NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH BY NO LONGER TRANSPORTING LAKE MOISTURE
NOR UPSLOPING WILL EVENTUALLY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE 
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING FOR WHEN
CIGS SCATTER OUT AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...BUT AS USUAL KBGM
SHOULD HANG ONTO MVFR THE LONGEST...WELL INTO TONIGHT. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS 10-20KFT AGL OF NO CONSEQUENCE WILL SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT THEN FOR PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...MDP






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