000
FXUS61 KBGM 191743
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
143 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...WILL BE OUR MAIN CONTROLLING FEATURE
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING RAIN-FREE WEATHER...AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
1024MB SFC HIGH WL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. CUMULUS CLDS ARE
STARTING TO DVLP AS OF 13Z IN NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HV CHGD THE
SKY GRIDS TO MOSUNNY AS OPPOSED TO STRAIGHT SUN. THIS SHUD HV VRY
LITTLE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TDA WITH AFTN MAXES EXPECTED TO SETTLE
OUT ARND 70F, DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

330 AM UPDATE... A MUCH DRIER AMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
CWA TDY...COURTESY OF EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPR LKS
RGN. ANY RESIDUAL CLDNS OVER OUR SRN/ERN ZNS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE
BY 10-12Z...MAKING WAY FOR A SUNNY DAY. 

925-850 MB CAA IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MRNG
HRS...AND THUS TEMPS TDY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID TO LATE
JUNE (HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S-MID 70S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE... QUIET WX IS STILL FORESEEN THIS PD...AS THE
COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND BLDG HTS ALOFT...KEEP CNY/NE PA
RAIN-FREE.

THE ONLY SMALL WRINKLE IS THU AFTN...AS NWP GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE DVLPMT OF AN INVERTED LOW-LVL TROUGH AXIS FROM WV INTO WRN/CNTRL
PA...COLLOCATED WITH A 925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE...AND SOME WEAK
INSTAB (ML CAPES OF 200-400). OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT ANY ISOLD-
SCTD SHWR ACTIVITY WILL STAY REMOVED FROM OUR FA...AND MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF WRN/CNTRL PA.

AFTER CHILLY TEMPS WED NGT/EARLY THU AM (LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE
40S MOST AREAS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPR 30S IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER VLYS)...WE SHOULD SEE A MODERATING TREND START ON
THU...WITH AFTN HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S. BY FRI AFTN...MANY
AREAS SHOULD REACH THE LWR-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF EXHIBIT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NW FLOW AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE... WHILE THE GFS SHOWS STRONGER
RIDGING AND A DRYER... WARMER PATTERN. HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH ALSO MATCHES WELL WITH THE WPC
GUIDANCE... INDICATING A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD EAST BRINGING A PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK... ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM EDT UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. DRY AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
TODAY PREVENTING FOG FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES. FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVER KELM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEY. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE GUSTY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET. 

OUTLOOK...THU THRU SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH