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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 130517
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
117 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING PEACEFUL DRY WEATHER. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED THIS EVENING INTO THE MID/UPR
20S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND LOWER 30S NE PA. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW
POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOWERS 20S
BY MORNING WITH SOME OF THE COOLER AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
AROUND 10. READINGS WOULD FALL EVEN FURTHER BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

130 PM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA
TODAY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
GUSTY AT THE SFC THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE MSLP
GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. TONIGHT... THE SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION WHICH WILL FORCE THE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SNEAKS AROUND THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE MID LVL RIDGE ATTENDANT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.
MOISTURE AT THE LOWEST LVLS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY... THUS JUST
EXPECT CLOUDS FROM THIS WAVE... AND MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA... TO MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS.
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY EVEN THOUGH SOME MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 PM EDT UPDATE...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START TO RISE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA AND WAA STARTS TO OCCUR OVR THE
REGION. AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS FROM MN SOUTH TO WEST TEXAS. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH WILL
DIVIDE INTO TWO STREAMS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM... WHICH WILL HAVE
THE STRONGEST FORCING... WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN PA AND DRIFT EAST
ATTM MISSING THE CWA. THE FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...
WHICH WILL BE WEAKER... BUT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO IMPACT THE
CWA. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO GENERATE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS WEAK LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
OVER NY SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL START LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM PROPAGATES EAST IT WILL INDUCE STRONG WAA OVER 
CNTRL NY AND NE PA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL QUICKLY ELIMINATE ICE 
CRYSTALS WITHIN THE CLOUDS TO GENERATE SNOW. THIS MAY CREATE 
PROBLEMS. SFC TEMPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING 
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ON FRI. THE WARM AIR ALOFT... COMBINED WITH 
BELOW FREEZING SFC TEMPS MAY CREATE FREEZING RAIN DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.. THROUGH SAT MORNING. THERE MAY BE A 3 HR 
PERIOD... FROM 06Z-09Z SAT... WHERE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES 
SATURATED TO A GREAT ENOUGH DEPTH TO WHERE SLEET MAY OCCUR COMBINED 
WITH FREEZING RAIN. THE RETURN FLOW ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL 
STRENGTHEN LATE SAT MORNING RESULTING IN ALL PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO 
RAIN. RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SAT EVENING. THE WEAK LOW WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK 
OVER THE REGION AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN. 
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH SUN NIGHT OVR THE WHOLE 
AREA. 

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

ACTIVE UNSTABLE PATTERN. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THEN
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH WAA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
CLIPPER DROPS SE THROUGH THE AREA MON NGT WITH MORE MIXED PRECIP.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH IT CLOSES OFF IN NEW ENGLAND AND SE
CANADA KEEPING THE TROF OVER THE NE US. A COLD NW FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CENT NY SNOW SHOWERS WITH LESSER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
NE PA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THURSDAY BUT LEANING WITH THE COLDER EURO WHICH
KEEPS THE NW FLOW GOING. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS INTO THE NE US TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
06Z UPDATE...
QUIET VFR TAF PERIOD...THOUGH CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO LOWER
TOWARDS 06Z SAT WITH RESTRICTIONS TO SHORTLY FOLLOW. UNTIL THEN...JUST
FEW-SCT HIGH THIN CLOUDS. VARIABLE WIND BECOMING LIGHT ESE KRME...SE
KSYR...AND S OR SSW KELM-KBGM-KAVP. KITH WIND ALSO VARIABLE
INITIALLY BUT INTO 10-14 KT RANGE FROM SSE LATE MORNING ONWARD.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...MVFR LIKELY AND POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SAT
/POSSIBLE -FZRA KRME EARLY/...THEN MIXED RAIN-SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUN.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR.

MON NGT AND TUES...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP






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