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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 260636
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
136 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION 
TODAY...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY IN NEW YORK. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR EASTER TONIGHT...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
STATES...WITH SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW NOW ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND EDGING NORTHWARD. IT IS RUNNING INTO VERY DRY AIR AS IT DOES
SO. EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM THE SYSTEM AS IT
HEADS TO THE COAST THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO
COOPERSTOWN LINE DUE TO DRY FEED OF AIR FROM ARCTIC QUEBEC HIGH.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING
ON WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER CIRCULATION...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF. AMOUNTS THERE
TODAY MAY BE MORE LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES /STEUBEN-YATES/...NOT ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.

AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND CLIPPER SURFACE LOW REACHES THE
COAST...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS INTO STRONG NOR EASTER IS STILL
EXPECTED. DECISIONS STILL BEING MADE FOR WHAT TO DO WITH THE
EXISTING WATCH. WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE JOGGED EASTWARD WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REMAINS
THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...
AFTER 00Z, EXPECT THAT ENERGY WL BEGIN TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST.
QUESTION THEN BCMS HOW FAR WEST THE SNOW CAN BE FLUNG BACK FM THE
SFC LOW MON NGT/TUE MRNG. MODELS NOTORIOUSLY HV A HARD TIME WITH
QPF PREDICTION AND THESE MILLER TYPE-B CYCLONES ARE EVEN WORSE
THAN USUAL. 12Z NAM TRENDED WEST WITH SFC LOW WHILE 12Z GFS
TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST AND 12Z EC STAYED THE COURSE. BY 12Z
TUESDAY SFC LOW IS AT THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MED RANGE MODELS AND DON'T THINK THIS WL BE
THE CASE. HV GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/EC AND WPC
GUIDANCE.

EXPECT LGT SNOW TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON MON NGT FOR FINGER LKS AS 
LIFT IS BCMNG FOCUSED MORE ON CYCLOGENESIS INTENSIFYING OFF THE 
COAST. HEAVIEST SNOW PROGGED TO RMN OVR SULLIVAN/PIKE CNTYS AFTER 
MIDNIGHT MON NGT CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTN AS LOW STALLS/ 
RETROGRADES NR CAPE COD. CONFIDENCE IS VRY LOW ON THIS HAPPENING 
WITH ONLY EC INDICATING THE RETROGRESSION WHILE THE NAM STALLS 
SYSTEM WITH GFS/CMC MORE PROGRESSIVE. CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE 
TO GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT SO WL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE 
WINTER STORM WATCH AND HV OPTED TO ADD OTSEGO AND DELAWARE CNTYS TO 
EXISTING WATCH. AS IT SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT WE WL HIT WARNING 
CRITERIA SNOWS OVR EXTRM ERN SXNS AND WL EMPHASIZE THIS IN WINTER 
STORM PRODUCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
140 PM EST UPDATE... 
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE
TO START OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUNSHINE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS CLIPPER WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURS AND
BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DECIDED TO
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AND MAY CREATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER. THE FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD THE LARGER
DISCREPANCIES THERE ARE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE... THUS DECIDED TO
TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND KEPT LOW POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM... BUT WILL
MODERATE ON THURS AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON TILL ANOTHER COLD FROM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
AND ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED.

MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW
BY AN HOUR OR SO DUE TO VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. AN ARRIVAL BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z AT KAVP, BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z AT KELM/KBGM/KITH, AND
AFTER 17Z AT KSYR AND KRME. WHILE WE DON'T EXPECT MODERATE OR
HEAVY SNOW, WIDESPREAD 1SM TO 2SM IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBGM AND KITH DUE TO THE
ELEVATION OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...IFR VSBYS IN SNOW.
TUE...IFR VSBYS IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY KAVP. MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE IN
SCT. LIGHT SNOW.
 
TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
     TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
     TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN






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