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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 210002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
802 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
WE ARE FINALLY SEEING GOOD BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AT THIS HOUR
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THIS INCREASING SUN TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING. AFTER EARLY CLEARING TONIGHT, WITH A SOUTHEAST
AND MOIST FLOW, A MARINE LAYER MAY ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE CLOUDS FROM
THE BINGHAMTON AREA SOUTH AND EAST.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST NOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50KTS+ AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25KTS.
THESE WILL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. AVERAGE MODEL
MLCAPES ARE IN THE 200 TO 400 J/KG RANGE, ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS
DO SHOW A FEW AREAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA ABOVE 500 J/KG. WITH THAT
IN MIND WILL CONTINUE OUR GOING FORECAST OF A HIGH LIKELY TO CAT
FORECAST OF RAIN SUNDAY MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. I CONTINUED TO CONFINE THE HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NY STATE, AND ESPECIALLY THE FINGER LAKES BACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IT WILL BE HERE (AN ELMIRA TO ITHACA LINE,
BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH HORNELL/PENN YAN) THAT OUR BEST SHOT AT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
THREAT, ALBEIT LOW, IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN
AROUND +1C AND LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE MIDDLE 60S, LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL AGAIN BE IN NY STATE. IT WILL FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL MONDAY WITH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S MANY AREAS!FINALLY BY MONDAY EVENING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY NICE STRETCH
OF WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH PRES AT THE SFC. THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE
THE REGION AN INCREDIBLE STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL NIGHT TIME TEMPS AND MILD DAYS. MAX TEMPS LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUN UPDATE... AFTER VFR CONTINUES FOR A WHILE THIS EVE...WE'RE
LIKELY TO SEE RESTRICTIVE CIGS AGN LTR TNT INTO EARLY SUN...AS LWR
CLDS RE-DVLP ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. MVFR CONDS ARE FORESEEN AT ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 04-08Z...EXCEPT KSYR...WHERE IT'S MUCH MORE
QUESTIONABLE THAT LWR CIGS WILL BE ABLE TO CROSS OVER THE HILLS ON
SRLY WINDS AND SETTLE IN.

DURG THE DAY SUN...WE'RE ANTICIPATING THAT AFTER SOME EARLY MRNG
LWR CLDS/MVFR RESTRICTIONS...CLDS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCT OUT
FOR A TIME...WITH VFR LIKELY TO RETURN AREA-WIDE. 

A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IS LIKELY TO SWEEP ACRS CNY/NE PA DURG
THE LATE AFTN PD...ALG AND JUST AHD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT.
DUE TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS STILL 18-24 HRS OUT...WE'LL SIMPLY
INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR SHWRS ATTM FOR MOST OF OUR
TERMINAL SITES. ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDER IS PSBL...AS ALLUDED TO
ABV...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THEIR MENTION
IN THE FCST THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. 

S TO SWLY SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUN.
KSYR/KITH/KBGM ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL SITES SEEING GUSTY CONDS ON SUN. ONCE THE
COLD FRNT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN
THE DAY AND DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS PRIMARILY DURING THE
EVENING PERIOD. 

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUE/WED/THU...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY FOG
PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM






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