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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 240539
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE... 
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN. 

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY'S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON 
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE'LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI. 

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...






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