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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 030039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
839 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WILL TEMPORARILY YIELD TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITS
CONTROL, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, TO BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
755 PM UPDATE...
AFTER ANALYZING LATEST T/TD TRENDS, WE DETERMINED THAT CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SOMEWHERE AROUND 5Z-6Z, WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING THEREAFTER.

LIKE LAST NIGHT, FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND NOT CONFINED TO JUST
THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER, FOG WON'T BE QUITE AS DENSE, DUE TO
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.


245 PM UPDATE... PATCHY FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WE DO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS AWAY THURSDAY, THE MAIN THING
WE'LL BE WATCHING IS A WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NY AND PA. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, THE AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE, PERHAPS TO THE TUNE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORCING LOOKS QUITE
UNIMPRESSIVE (VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, AND A VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO BOOT). THUS, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED
AND GARDEN VARIETY (NON-SEVERE) IN NATURE. 

HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE HAVING A
TENDENCY TO WASH OUT ALTOGETHER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
CLOSER TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WILL BE WARM AND RAIN-FREE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OVER THE WEEKEND, A LARGE RIDGE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THUS SHOULD RESULT IN A
RENEWED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY SEP (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 90 IN
SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY/URBAN LOCATIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT HAZE COULD PRODUCE
MVFR VSBYS FROM TIEM TO TIME. AFTER 05Z...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN, WITH IFR POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST
AT KELM AND KBGM. MVFR RESTRICTIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. AT
KELM AIRPORT MINS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BUT NOT QUITE
AS LIKELY AS PAST MORNINGS. 

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO LARGELY UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY. 

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ



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