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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201703
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
103 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
VALUES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FURTHER WARMING MONDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO 
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF 
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT 
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS 
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM 
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE 
TO IMPEDE RADN'L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO 
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER 
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG. 

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON 
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY 
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15 
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILES ON BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE AT ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE MADE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... 
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... 
VFR ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20 KFT
AGL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
130 AM UPDATE... 
THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND TODAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...WELL
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...ALONG WITH WARMER 
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP EVEN LOWER...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT TREND CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY YET LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...A
WETTING RAIN IS ON THE WAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...






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