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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS, AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO AGAIN. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
BEYOND DAYBREAK DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL PUT AN END TO MOST OF
THIS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING.

COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY, IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR CALM) WIND CHILLS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT WILL JUST BE PLAIN OLD COLD
AIR ITSELF. I DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES IN THE HWO BECAUSE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS
BACK THROUGH CORTLAND COUNTY HAVE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE (4 TO 5 MPH)
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AT THE LOW END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE (-15
TO -17). AFTER WHAT WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, NOT NEARLY AS BAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR WEST BY
12Z MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS TYPE OF TRACK/INTENSITY DOESN'T SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT. FOR A FIRST SNOW ESTIMATE WENT UNDER WPC GUIDANCE
WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL AREAWIDE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET
TIME WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE EURO FASTER AND THE CANADIAN A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH AN
AFTERNOON ONSET. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE...A TRANSITION THAT WILL NOT OCCUR QUIETLY.

SUNDAY BEGINS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BRISK
ZONAL FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
IT LOOKS QUITE CERTAIN NOW THAT IT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW...YET IT ALSO SHOULD HIT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT AMOUNTS. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION...ADVISORY AMOUNTS AT WORST. BY DAWN MONDAY...WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND PROBABLY JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT BY
THEN /MAINLY CENTRAL NY/.

LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING QUICKLY
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BROAD SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OF COLD AIR LINGERING LONGER NEAR THE SURFACE...YET QUICKLY
WARMING ALOFT...THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY SOME SNOW TUESDAY THEN WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW WARM THE SURFACE WILL
MANAGE TO GET CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL SNOW PACK...BUT AT THIS TIME
WE ARE FIGURING ON MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY. COLD
FRONT THEN TO COME THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO SOME COLDER AIR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LINGERING LGT SNOW AT ITH WILL END SHRTLY AFT SUNRISE BRINGING ALL
STATIONS TO VFR CONDS THIS MRNG. VFR CONDS WILL HOLD THRU THE TAF
PD AS HIPRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. LGT WLY WINDS AHD OF THE HIPRES
TODAY WILL BECOME MSTLY VRBL TNGT. 

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN OR MIX AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM






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