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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201200
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE LINGERING TODAY. SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM 
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND RAINY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE... 
SUBTLE CHANGES ALREADY BECOMING APPARENT...NOW THAT LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW IS BECOMING VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. CLOUD LAYER
DEFINITELY PRESENT UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION YET ALSO
BECOMING THIN. ERODING ALREADY OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...WITH RESULTANT QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. A FACEBOOK REPORT INDICATES ONLY 6 DEGREES IN
REMSEN. TO OUR NORTH WHERE SKY WAS CLEAR MOST OR ALL OF THE
NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES CAN BE
FOUND IN FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NY-VT-NH AND INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO-QUEBEC.

SKY GRIDS ADJUSTED TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY QUICKER EROSION OF
CLOUDS...BUT STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF IT OVERALL TODAY ESPECIALLY
ITHACA- CORTLAND-NORWICH- BINGHAMTON AREAS WHERE AS USUAL THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGEST. THOSE THAT DO NOT MANAGE TO SEE PEEKS
OF SUN TODAY...CAN DEFINITELY LOOK FORWARD TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY ALLOW THE PERSISTENT 
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH ASSURES THAT A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE...MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPING FLOW WILL ALSO CEASE LATER TODAY AND IT WILL
BE VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THAT INVERSION. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
STUBBORN...BUT THE SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COMPRESS TO A
THINNER LAYER AND I EXPECT TO SEE SOME HOLES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. THEN TONIGHT...A CONTEST BETWEEN STRATOCUMULUS BREAKING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT FROM WEAK UPPER
WAVE ZIPPING IN FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL STILL WHAT COULD
BE CONSIDERED A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE
BREAKS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY
2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS MANAGED FRIDAY...GENERALLY STILL
IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN MAINLY LOWER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
STILL QUIET. THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS
THE LIKELY APPEARANCE OF SUNSHINE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO COME
BY LATELY.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL STILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS WITHIN 
10-25 KFT AGL. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ALSO STILL LINGERING IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY INITIALLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL EXIT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REVEALING WHAT WILL BE FOR MANY THE FIRST
SUNSHINE IN OVER A WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY...MAINLY 30S. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME HIGH THIN
CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE IN TOWARDS DAWN. OVERALL THOUGH MAINLY
CLEAR WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING REALIZING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR TWEEKS, OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE 0Z GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ARE MUCH LOWER THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. LOWERED POPS AND
QPF ACCORDINGLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. 

3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY
EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE... 
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA. THIS IS FINALLY CAUSING NORTHWEST WIND TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH BY NO LONGER TRANSPORTING LAKE MOISTURE
NOR UPSLOPING WILL EVENTUALLY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE 
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT TIMING FOR WHEN
CIGS SCATTER OUT AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...BUT AS USUAL KBGM
SHOULD HANG ONTO MVFR THE LONGEST...WELL INTO TONIGHT. SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS 10-20KFT AGL OF NO CONSEQUENCE WILL SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWEST 10 KFT THEN FOR PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...

SUN TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO WED...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JAB
AVIATION...MDP






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