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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 291023
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
623 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA TODAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 1230 AND 1330Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR A SUNNY,
CLEAR WEATHER DAY.

STILL COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 850MB SO HAVE RESTRICTED
MAX TEMPS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S DESPITE NEAR FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO NY/PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR
WESTERN FA LATE SATURDAY.

FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT, SO
HAVE ORIENTED POPS FROM NE TO SW. STICKING TO MAINLY CHC/SCT
COVERAGE AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING ARE LACKING. EXPECT FAR SERN
FA TO REMAIN DRY.

SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PUSH. NOT A TON OF INSTABILITY, BUT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZATION (AROUND 30+ KTS) SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...
VRY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM THIS MORNING. FROPA LOOKS
TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO LKLY
POPS AT THIS TIME, BUT WL LIKELY NEED TO BE BOOSTED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO EVENT. FOLLOWING FROPA EXPECT TEMPS TO SETTLE OUT NR
SEASONAL VALUES AFT WARM START TO THE WEEK. AFTR CDFNT MVS THRU
EXPECT FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW THRU END OF EXTNDD WITH 590DM RIDGE ALONG
GULF COAST AND TROFFING IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
FOG HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AS EXTENSIVELY AS ONCE THOUGHT. IN FACT
ELM BOUNCED BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR TWICE OVERNIGHT BUT HAD A HARD TIME
SETTING IN. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED TODAY. A MID-DECK WILL LIKELY
ENCROACH FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP
RESTRICTIONS FROM SETTING IN FROM FOG LATE TONIGHT. 

NEAR CALM WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING,
THEN INCREASING TO 5-7 KNOTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




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