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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 242340
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
740 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE STACKED UPPR LVL LOW THAT HAVE CAUSED UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
DAYS HAVE FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT NO LONGER IMPACTS
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WE WILL GO
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.

IT APPEARS THAT ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA IS LEFT. THE CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE ALSO
DISSIPATED MUCH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WHICH ALSO HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA THAT HAVE SEEN LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
50S TO LOW 60S. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET. 

A VERY WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE... EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS... MAINLY CIRRUS. IT APPEARS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY THIS WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY.

TONIGHT THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SINK SOUTH ALONG THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER WEAK RIDING ALOFT ALLOWING SFC
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THE
EVENING WILL START OUT AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND BY SUNRISE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE WEST DUE TO THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER... DUE TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS TO REMAIN
DRY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO IMPACT THE CWA BY EJECTING A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION... WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS SYSTEM HAS
IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL DYNAMICS BUT LACKS MOISTURE... THUS DO NOT
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.

AFTER THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA A SECONDARY
WAVE THEN WILL QUICKLY DROP AND FOLLOW IN IT'S WAKE. THIS MAY
CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SHORTLY AFTER THAT... LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ONBOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR. 

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR XPCTD THRU THE TAF PD. RDG OVHD THIS EVE SHD KEEP KSKIES
MAINLY CLR OTR THAN SOME HI CLDS THRU LATE NGT. TWRD MRNG...WV MVG
THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL DVLP A LWR CLD DECK...ESP OVER THE NY
SITES...BUT GNRLY SHD REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT. A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS
ARE PSBL AS THE WV PASSES...BUT NOT ENUF TO LWR CIGS OR RESTRICT
VSBYS. DRIER AIR BHD THE WV ARRIVES BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PD. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF






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