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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
130 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM EST UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS.

A SLIGHT RIPPLE OF A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE STILL LOCATED OVR THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER
PORTIONS OF NY AND PA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE
MENTIONED WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONTINUATION OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE
AS AND LIFT NE OUT OF THE AREA.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL THEN START TO PUSH IN THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BEHIND
THE TROUGH AXIS.

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO HAVE MORE OF A SINGLE BAND
SIGNATURE AS THE MEAN WIND WITHIN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES AROUND 290 TO 300 DEGREES. THE SINGLE BANDS MAY
FLUCTUATE EARLY ON BUT REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

STILL EVALUATING IF A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA. 

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. 

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE... 
SEVERAL CONCERNS REGARDING THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS HIGH. THE
BIGGEST ISSUE SEEMS TO BE THE HANDLING OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE
OVERALL 500 MB PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO BERING SEA LOW. AGREE WITH
WPC THAT LEANING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF SUITE IS BETTER AS THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW SHOULD AMPLIFY PRETTY GOOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST
CONUS. THE GFS/GEFS IS QUITE FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE. THIS GIVES US
ISSUES RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE ON MONDAY...AS GFS HAS COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MON...WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GGEM ARE
POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. THINK WE HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIP DURING
THIS MONDAY PERIOD. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
GO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL GIVEN THAT PESKY GFS SOLUTION BRINGING IN
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.

ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT AFTER A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE MON
NIGHT...TUES IS COVERED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY.
THEN...CONFIDENCE REALLY BREAKS DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SOME FEATURE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY 12-24 HOURS...SO HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH NO SPECIFIC TIMING.

GENRALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PTYPES
DEPENDANT ON MAINLY DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO A CHAOTIC BLEND OF VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEN...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION, IN ADDITION TO A DEVELOPING LAKE RESPONSE, CIGS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MVFR/VFR RANGE. THE LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE
MOST POTENT IN THE VCNTY OF KSYR WHERE IFR, OR WORSE, RESTRICTIONS
WILL AGAIN BECOME DOMINANT IN AND AROUND LAKE SNOW BANDS...SAY
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SNOW BANDS SHIFT TOWARD KRME...BUT ON A MORE
TEMPORARY BASIS UNTIL AFT 12Z FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY W-NW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB






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