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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 200538
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH WILL
ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS. WINDS WILL THEN
COME MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
MAINLY THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF TO EAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW MARINE MOISTURE
TO  BE ADVECTED INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. A STRONG LLJ WILL FIRE UP AROUND
04Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL PUMP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DENSE LOW LVL CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
OVER NE PA AND CNTRL NY. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LLJ AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT... MAY
PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING.

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPS IN NEAR
TERM. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON PREVIOUS FORECAST PLEASE READ DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
215 PM UPDATE... 
EARLIER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MIXED OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AND THE AREA
IS BASKING IN SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THAT
HIGH IS TRANSLATING TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND IT WILL INITIATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE SATURATED LAYER BECOMING THICK ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
/MAINLY POCONOS- CATSKILLS-TUG HILL/ FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THINGS MUCH MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY...BREAKING UP SOME OF THE
CLOUDS AND ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDER. LIMITED INSTABILITY...YET STRONG FORCING AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR. HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG JET...MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY...TO YIELD SOME THUNDERSTORMS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES SURGE IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. IF THUNDERSTORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...THEY MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. POTENTIAL IS ENOUGH TO NOW
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...YET THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY MAINLY IN REGARDS TO IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN 70S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE PULLING OUT MONDAY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS
LOOKING MUCH COOLER MONDAY WITH STUBBORN POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS
/ESPECIALLY TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD/ AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES-
SHOWERS. HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO
UPPER 50S-MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK SFC TROF PASSING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NRN CWA. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS
LIKE A GREAT PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE
WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
MARINE LAYER IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY AS OF 06Z. MOST TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE
DELAYED GETTING INTO SYR AND RME UNTIL AROUND 08Z. THESE CIGS WILL
ALSO BE QUICKER TO RISE TO VFR WHEREAS FURTHER SOUTH POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RESTRICTIONS TO DIP TO IFR AT BGM AND POSSIBLY AVP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z IN -DZ. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BECOME VFR
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME.  

LGT/VRB WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 10KTS BY
DAYBREAK AT MOST LOCATIONS. SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z TO
20-22KTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KTS AT SUNSET BUT REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOIST S/SE FLOW.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN




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