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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 300605
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW FAIRLY THICK CI SHIELD
FROM THE WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH THROUGH THE POCONOS AND WYOMING
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SO WILL GO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BUT THE FAR EAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
INITIATE SHOWERS. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP TUESDAY MORNING DRY WITH
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGINNING MIDDAY.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. 

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND. 

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO'S FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... LOCALLY DENSE VLY FOG WILL BE IN PLACE ACRS THE
TWIN TIERS AGN EARLY THIS MRNG. THUS...WE ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDS
AT KELM...PERHAPS FALLING BLO AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES. MORE BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK AT KRME AND
KITH...WITH PATCHY LWR CIGS AND BR. 

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD. HIT AND MISS SHWRS...AND PSBLY AN
EMBEDDED TSRA...ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER CNY/NE PA LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WE'VE INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP
TO COVER THIS SITN. 

LTR THIS EVE...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND THE DEGREE OF
CLEARING...AREAS OF FOG/LWR CIGS COULD DVLP. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE'VE GONE WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 03Z. 

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN. 

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA. 

SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MLJ






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