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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 291843
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WIND FLOWING OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOG THROUGH THE SERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5
HOURS. UNTIL THEN, RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL ROTATE THROUGH TONIGHT, CAUSING STEEPER LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
THE LAKE SURFACE AND THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO. LAKE
INDUCED CAPES ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR LATE OCTOBER, AND SHEAR IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE DRIVEN CONVECTION.

THE DOWNWIND COUNTIES OF NY WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BRING A QUIET, COOL NIGHT TO NY AND PA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ROTATE INTO THE DEEP
SERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A DIFFUSE LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS ENERGY IS TRANSFERRED.
AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO CATCH UP TO THE COASTAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE PLACE.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL FIRST ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIP AS THE ENERGY TRANSFER TAKES PLACE. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL
SAFE IN FORECASTING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION COME INTO PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, AS SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG UPLIFT OVER THE AREA, DYNAMIC COOLING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LARGE FACTOR. FOCUSING ON TEMP AND ELEVATION YIELDS AN AREA
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST AND FAR WEST. MINOR ACCUMS ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM WED UPDATE... REGARDING THE DEEP UPR-LVL WAVE PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE ERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E INTO VA/NC...BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH...AND THEN PROCEEDS OUT TO SEA.
AS SUCH...ITS MAIN IMPACTS ON CNY/NE PA SHOULD BE TO PRODUCE SCTD
INSTAB DRIVEN -SHRA/-SHSN FRI NGT AND SAT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHORT-LIVED MULTI-BAND SHSN SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE'VE RETAINED CHC POPS (30-50%) TO COVER THIS SCENARIO
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX LTR FRI
NGT AND SAT...WITH JUST SNOW SHWRS ANTICIPATED SAT NGT AND SUN
MRNG. 

AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE...A DRYING/MODERATING TREND
IS FORESEEN FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.

-SHRA COULD ARRIVE BY LTR TUE AFTN OR TUE NGT...AS THE NEXT NRN
STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNTL COMPLEX APPROACH FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. A
BAND OF -SHRA MAY IMPACT KAVP THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT SHWRS SHOULD BE
UNRESTRICTED IN NATURE. AFTERWARDS...THIS AREA OF PCPN SHOULD EXIT
OUR RGN TO THE E. 

LTR TNT INTO EARLY THU...AN AREA OF SC CLDS SHOULD BUILD INTO CNY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA...OWING MAINLY TO A MOIST LWR LVL
ENVIRONMENT...AND LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES. MVFR CIGS ARE FORESEEN AT
KSYR AND KRME...ALG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT KITH
AND KBGM...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN FARTHER TO THE N. KELM AND KAVP
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

WRLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THIS AFTN...VEERING INTO THE
NW TNT AND THU. 

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT AND MOST OF FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ






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