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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 010510
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A 
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE 
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST 
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN 
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS 
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING 
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF 
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD 
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON- 
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO 
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS 
FOR THIS LABOR DAY. 

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO 
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC 
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS 
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS 
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS 
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP






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