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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 192047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GIVING THE AREA
MIXED PRECIPITATION. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...

COLD NW FLOW WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME FLURRIES AND MAYBE FREEZING
DRIZZLE FROM EXTREME NE PA INTO CENTRAL NY. WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10
KTS AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EVENING. KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE INVERSION
DROPPING BUT STILL TRAPPING MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. CLEARING
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE CWA BUT THIS WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MIXING. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND
AROUND 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SAT TO BE OVER THE AREA SAT NGT TO SUN NGT.
QUESTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL SEE. HIGH
CENTERED IN SE CANADA SO SINKING MOTION WEAK. LL INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN BUT REMAIN. IN ADDITION MORE MOISTURE COMING IN AT MID
LEVELS ON SUNDAY. UPPED THE CLOUD AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND FOR THESE
REASONS. 

MONDAY DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES UP THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO
THE NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AT THE LEAST MON AFTN. THE NAM HAS THE
PRECIP FURTHER NORTH BUT SIDED WITH THE SLOWER EURO. THE SW FLOW
AND WAA WILL PUSH SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S SUNDAY THEN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS
RIGHT NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP
MAY SHUT RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE...HOWEVER THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING
IN THE SFC TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH
PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE HIT AND MISS AT THE
TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS. 

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN
PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB






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