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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 221048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
END THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM EDT UPDATE...
VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND VISBYS ARE RANGING ON A
QUITE DIVERSE LEVEL FROM A QUARTER OF A MILE TO SEVEN MILES.
EXPECT FOG TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX WITH THE MORNING SUN. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THEY ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS GOOD. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TODAY'S FORECAST PLEASE
READ BELOW.

424 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE DWINDLED DOWN AND JUST
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE AND HAVE BECOME
QUITE DENSE IN SELECT AREAS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT BY 13Z ACROSS THE
AREA AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING. 

AND THE STORY CONTINUES... THE UPPR LVL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
WASHED OUT IN THE FLOW ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROMINENT UPPR
LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST AND START TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER... THIS
AFTERNOON WE WILL REMAIN ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS RIDGE...
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AGAIN TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY WAS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DRYING. EXPECT 
SBCAPE VALUES TO BE SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING ALOFT...
INSTABILITY PRESENT... AND TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON AND BE SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE.

TODAY WILL BE MUGGY AND WARM DAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE UPPR 70S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
SFC HIGH AS IT PUSHES WEST. THE ACTIVITY WILL RETROGRADE WITH TIME
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES FURTHER WEST. THUS...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
424 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND ANOTHER
VORTICITY MAX WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEPLETED OF MOISTURE AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CWA DRY AIR WILL
EXPAND OVER THE WHOLE CWA. IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL DEVELOP
EARLY DURING THE DAY. 

THE ROBUST UPPR LVL RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST ON SUNDAY
TO TYRANNIZE THE NORTHEAST. PARADISAICAL WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN... AKA... NO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
PARTY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH
PRES OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PLEASANT STRETCH
OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SFC
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CONDITIONS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. OVERALL WIDESPREAD LOW
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT KAVP,
IFR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z THEN LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AT KELM, DENSE FOG WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR AIRPORT MINS THROUGH 13Z. AT KITH, CONDITIONS 
BELOW ALT MINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13Z. AT KBGM, CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-
13Z. AT KRME/KSYR, LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY WITH
IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. BY 14Z CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH
CIGS AROUND 4K FT. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT
ALL TAFS FROM AROUND 18Z-00Z. THIS EVENING MVFR EXPECTED DUE TO
MIST AND LINGERING LOW CIGS.

VARIABLE WINDS 3-5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP/RRM
AVIATION...RRM







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