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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 210150
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...AT 01Z SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR TORONTO WITH
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NY SOUTH TO WESTERN PA/EASTERN OH. H5 SHORT WAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EVENTUALLY
CUTOFF OVER LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED IT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD. EASTERN PTN OF CWA ALSO HAS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
DEPICTED BY 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND THE ALY 00Z
RAOB. CURRENT FORECAST OF POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/NRN CWA WITH CHC ELSEWHERE SEEMS ON
TARGET. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISC... SFC LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AS THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE CNTRL LAKES.
DURING THIS SLOW TRANSITION TO A CSTL SYSTEM...MODELS WEAKEN THE
PCPN AS AND KEEP MUCH OF WHAT FALLS WEST OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS SOME SLGT RDGG AND DRY AIR BLDS AHD OF THE
DEEPENING LOW.

SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVRNGT...LWR IN THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE
PCPN STREAMS TO OUR WEST IN THE DVLPG SWLY FLOW. LGT PCPN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THIS AFTN AND EVE CONTS TO BE PSBL
WITH THE WEAK WAA CONTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LOW OVER THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE WILL DRFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES...BUT MAKE IT NO FURTHER THAN THE NYC AREA
BY 00Z FRI. SFC LOW BREIFLY DEEPENS LATE WED AND EARLY THU BUT IN
GNRL THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV...JUST SLOW TO MOVE
AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE WLYS.

PCPN WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LGT AND THE ATLANTIC INFLOW REMAINS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HWVR...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS EVENTUALLY
CAPTURED AND PULLED BACK TO THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN
MAY END UP BEING THU AND THE NELY FLOW HAS PULLED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN...AND WRMR AIR...BACK INTO THE AREA. QPF AMTS WILL BE
LGT...ESP THRU WED...DESPITE THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS STORM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 7Z AND 12Z, FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. 

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, INTO AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO VFR BRIEFLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...

TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP






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