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Area Forecast Discussion
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448 
FXUS61 KBGM 151533
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1133 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...WITH A BRIEF
CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH MILDER
WEATHER RETURNING BY LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM... COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF UCA TO JUST EAST
OF BGM TO NEAR TOWANDA AND IS MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS.
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM NEAR 60 TO NEAR 40 IN AN HOUR AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN FALLING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS. WILL BE CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND SNOW
IS JUST BEGINNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN STEUBEN
COUNTY THROUGH 11 AM. ALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN AND SPREAD RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A MIX THEN ALL SNOW
AS FAR EAST AS I-81 BY ABOUT 4 PM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GETTING
LIGHTER BY THEN BUT ICY ROADWAYS WILL STILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. 


430 AM TUE UPDATE... A BUSY WX PD IS UPON US TDY INTO THIS
EVE...AS A SHARP COLD FRNT AND STG S/WV IMPACT CNY AND NE PA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRNT EXTENDED FROM NEAR ROCHESTER...TO
JAMESTOWN...TO PITTSBURGH ATTM...WHILE THE SUPPORTING S/WV WAS
BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE WAS
DVLPG ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS
AND EXPANDING PCPN BOTH TO OUR S IN THE STILL MILDER AIR OVER THE
MID-ATL STATES...AND ALSO BACK TO THE W IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE
OH VLY INTO SRN ONT. THE LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE GOMEX
WIDE OPEN...WITH A PWAT AXIS OF 1.25-1.5" INBOUND FROM THE S AND
SW. ALL OF THESE FACTORS PORTEND A PD OF HVY PCPN LTR TDY...WITH
OUR LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CENTERING THIS MAINLY IN THE 15-21Z
TIME FRAME. WE'RE PRESENTLY ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF
RAINFALL IN A 6-9 HR PD...SPCLY ALG AND JUST E OF THE I-81
CORRIDOR...WHERE FORCED ASCENT APPEARS TO BE THE STGST. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR RUNOFF ISSUES IN THE AREA JUST
OUTLINED...WE'LL CONTINUE TO RIDE WITH A FLOOD WATCH ONLY OVER
ONEIDA CNTY ATTM...WHERE WATER LVLS ARE PRESENTLY HIGHEST...AND
CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST. MORE DETAILS ARE CONTAINED IN THE
HYDRO SXN BLO.

THE OTHER MAIN PCPN ISSUE LTR TDY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FRZN PTYP
POST-FROPA. THIS HAS ACTUALLY BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY OUR NWP
SUITE FOR SVRL DAYS NOW. IT APPEARS THAT BLYR TEMPS WILL BECOME
COLD ENUF FOR A SNOW/SLEET MIX IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS BY
15-17Z...THEN TO ROUGHLY A UTICA-BINGHAMTON-TOWANDA LN BY
18-20Z...THEN TO MOST OF THE CWA BY 22-23Z. IT APPEARS THAT
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT IN THE COLDER AIR FOR A SVRL
HR PD OF SNOW/SLEET IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION...WITH THE PSBLTY FOR
1-3" OF ACCUM...SPCLY ACRS THE HIER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
RAPID DROP IN TEMPS...SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDS MAY ENSUE BY LATER IN
THE DAY. FOR NOW...WE'VE DECIDED TO HANDLE THIS SITN WITH A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT. IF CONFIDENCE IN A TRICKY EVENING COMMUTE PD
SCENARIO INCREASES LTR TDY...A SHORT-TERM WINTER WX ADVSY COULD
BE ISSUED AT THAT TIME.

STG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT THROUGH TNT. AN INTENSIFYING
LOW-LVL JET WILL BRING GUSTY SRLY WINDS THIS MRNG...WITH STG W-NW
WINDS DVLPG BEHIND THE FRNT LTR THIS AFTN AND TNT. ATTM...WIND
GUSTS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST BLO WIND ADVSY CRITERIA. THE PSBLTY
OF STG CONVECTIVE TYPE GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE MONITORED...
NEAR OR JUST AHD OF THE FRNT ITSELF...GIVEN THE JUST REFERENCED
LOW-LVL JET...AND SOME PROGGED 0-3 KM CAPE.

TEMPS/WIND CHILLS LTR TDY AND TNT WILL BE A CRUEL REMINDER THAT
SPRING HAS NOT FULLY ESTABLISHED ITSELF YET (AIR TEMPS IN THE
TEENS AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO BY 12Z WED).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
450 AM TUE UPDATE... AFTER STEADIER PCPN ENDS THIS EVE...OUR WX
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH WED AND THU...AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE NERN STATES. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY MODIFY WED AND THU...THEY SHOULD STAY BLO CLIMO...SPCLY
ON WED (HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 30S-LWR 40S MOST PLACES).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET WX IN THE MED RNG WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE RGN.
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE CST. WE COULD SEE CLDS RETURN IN THE SELY FLOW LATER FRI
NGT INTO SAT. THIS WEEKEND'S FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HINGING ON
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM S/WV'S. JUST WENT WITH
SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PD.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE...WITH READINGS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUE UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS WILL BE WITH US INTO THIS EVE.
MAINLY MVFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 14-16Z...WITH IFR BCMG
WIDESPREAD THEREAFTER.

PTYP SHOULD BE RAIN THIS MRNG...WITH SNOW/SLEET DVLPG 16-18Z AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES...THEN AT KAVP BY 18-20Z. ALT MINS MAY BE
APPROACHED LTR IN THE DAY IN ANY STEADIER/HVYR SNOW. 

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN LTR TNT (AFTER 03-06Z)...AS
STEADIER PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE E. 

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
4 AM TUE UPDATE... AT THIS TIME LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS ARE FOR 1.5 INCHES TO 1.75 INCHES MAINLY EAST OF THE
I-81 CORRIDOR AND LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES TO THE WEST. THE
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THE TAIL OF END OF THIS PRECIPITATION
LIKELY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OF CONCERN IS THAT A LOT OF
THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME INCREASING
THE THREAT FOR SOME FLOOD ISSUES ON SMALLER STREAMS...AND
ESPECIALLY URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE WE ARE WATCHING THE WEST CANADA
CREEK CLOSELY. THE WEST CANADA CREEK WAS AT 1226.26 FEET AS OF 245
AM EDT AND STILL RISING AT A STEADY CLIP. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS CREEK AS PER NWS ALY. LATEST NERFC FORECAST
GUIDANCE BRINGS IT 1228 FEET WHICH IS AT THE MODERATE FLOOD LEVEL.
IN ADDTN THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALLER
STREAMS IN ONEIDA COUNTY TO SPILL THEIR BANKS LATER TODAY AS AN
ADDITIONAL 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONCERNED
ABT THE SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AS WELL. FOR
NOW THE ONEIDA CREEK AT ONEIDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD BUT IF
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN (MORE THAN 2 INCHES) FALLS IN THAT
WATERSHED...FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SAQUOIT CREEK AND
ORISKANY CREEKS ALSO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FLOOD IF ENOUGH
RAIN FALLS IN THESE SMALLER WATERSHEDS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
ONEIDA COUNTY IS BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.5 INCHES IN A 3 TO 6 HOUR
PERIOD. THIS COULD BE A LITTLE HARD TO COME BY...EXCEPT LOCALLY.
SO A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONT FOR ONEIDA COUNTY TO COVER THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD ISSUES UP THERE.

FARTHER SOUTH THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS
SHOW NO RIVER FLOODING...EVEN IN THE HEADWATERS. HEADWATER FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS IS RUNNING AOA 2 INCHES IN 3 TO 6 HOURS
EXCEPT AT SHERBURNE WHERE IT IS CLOSER TO 1 INCHES FOR MINOR
FLOODING AND 1.5 INCHES FOR MODERATE FLOODING. THIS POINT WILL
BEARS WATCHING AND IS AN OUTLIER AMONG ALL OTHER HEADWATER FORECAST
POINTS. A FEW HEADWATER POINTS CUD SEE MINOR FLOODING WITH 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HOURS BUT MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
OVER 2 INCHES. SO AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS
OFFICES DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE AN FFA JUST YET. IF A BAND OF HEAVY
DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING AND HAS 1 INCH PER HOUR OR 2 INCH PER
3 HOUR RAINFALL RATES THE DAY SHIFT CAN ISSUE A SHORT FUSED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS NECESSARY. WE WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING OUTSIDE OUR FLOOD WATCH AREA AND HIT
THE URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE HARDEST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-036-037-
     045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ/MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...






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