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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 281022
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
622 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY, BRINGING
LINGERING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS STORM
PASSES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF. AFTER THIS STORM PASSES...NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA WILL REMAIN IN A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACRS NRN NY
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES N. THERE WAS A PATCH OF SHRA IN NE
PA MOVG ENE. THE PRECIP IN SC NY AND NE PA WILL CLEAR FOR A WHILE
THIS MORNING AND THEN FILL BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WORKS ACRS C NY AND FAR NRN PA THIS AFTERNOON TO
ERLY EVE. LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FARTHER S INTO NE PA. MADE TWEAKES TO
GRIDS AND KEPT SC NY AND NE PA MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING AND BRING
PRECIP BACK TO THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADARS SHOWS RAIN HEADING NORTHWARD TO NC NY AND INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING...FAR NW STEUBEN COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION SAW
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH NO FLOOD PROBLEMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE WHICH WAS
MOVING EAST. THIS FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED A SFC LOW OVER NC PA AND
SW NY ERLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD REACHING ALY
AS THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL NY AND
CENTRAL PA BY 17-18Z. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW...BELIEVE THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AND MOST
OF IT WILL AFFECT THE NRN PTNS OF CNTRL NY THRU 22Z WITH MORE SCT
ACVTY FARTHER S. SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS WANED AND WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CYCLONE I DON/T SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WILL CONT HIGH POPS MOST OF THE DAY AS
THIS SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY. AS ALLUDED TO ABV WILL
USE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS AS GUIDC FOR HOURLY POPS AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT RADAR EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC CYCLONE WILL BE
WELL INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING WRAP ARND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE AREAS E OF I-81 BTWN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE CYCLONE CONTS NE. 
WILL WIND DOWN POPS AS A RESULT WITH THE OVERNIGHT DRY. 

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TROF AXIS REMAINS TO OUR W ACRS THE
ERN LAKES. THEREFORE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALOFT IN WRN NY. IN
ADDTN THERE WILL BE SOME W-SW FLO AND A LITTLE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...HENCE THINK A FEW SHRA WILL POP UP WITH THE DAY/S
HEATING. SO HAVE MAINLY SLGHT CHC IN OUR FINGER LAKES
REGIONS/CNTRL SRN TIER. 

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACVTY WILL WANE WITH
PARTLY TO MO CLDY SKIES. 

FOR WEDNESDAY....TROF AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E AND WE WILL SEE MORE
SCT SHRA ACVTY FIRE UP WITH THE DAY/S HEATING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS ACVTY WILL WANE WED NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

230 PM SUN UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THIS PD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY L/WV RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMER AND TROUGHING
OVER ERN SXNS. THE ERN TROUGH FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN
NATURE AT THE START OF THE PD (WED NGT/THU)...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
UPR LOW OVER THE SRN END OF HUDSON'S BAY. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...THIS UPR LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NEWD...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS GRADUALLY FILLING. 

AS FOR OUR DAILY SENSIBLE WX...RESIDUAL COLD POOLING ALOFT ASSOCD
WITH THE ABV DESCRIBED TROUGH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SCTD DIURNAL
SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS PD...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SAID ACTIVITY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S-LWR
80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY TERMINALS REPORTING
VFR CONDITIONS BUT THROUGH DAYBREAK SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOWER CATEGORY INTO MVFR RANGE. TOWARD DAYBREAK CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/LOW MVFR RANGE DUE PRIMARILY TO
CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH AT KRME/KSYR MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST.

S/SE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN INCREASING
LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KNOTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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