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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220648
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
40S. AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 70S BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
105 AM UPDATE...
SFC LOPRES IS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS OF 05Z. INITIAL SFC FNT WHICH 
SPARKED OFF ISOLD TSTMS THIS EVNG IS LOCATED FM THIS LOW CNTR DOWN 
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SECONDARY AND SHARPER CDFNT IS LOCATED JUST 
SOUTH OF THE AXIS OF THE GREAT LKS. AS THIS SFC BNDRY PASSED THIS 
EVENING WINDS BRIEFLY VEERED ARND TO THE NW AND HV CURRENTLY BACKED 
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHD OF MAIN FRONT. THIS FNT IS BRINGING IN CAA AND 
MUCH DRIER DWPTS AND EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH THRU 
THE DAY. 

TEMPS WL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FCST PD. HV POPULATED GRIDS 
WITH LAV NUMBERS AS THEY SHOW NEARLY STEADY THRU 16Z THEN RISING BY 
A DEGREE OR TWO BY AFTN, MORE WHERE THE SUN MANAGES TO PEAK THRU. 
EXPECT U40S/L50S ACRS NY ZONES WITH MAXES PEAKING ARND 60F ACRS 
NEPA. 

NOT TOO THRILLED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF SEEING SUN TODAY NORTH OF 
THE NRN TIER OF PA. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS CNTRL NY AND WITH FLOW 
OFF OF THE LK WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER/SPRINKLE 
ALONG AND BHND CDFNT INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN AFT 
18Z WITH PCPN CHCS (AT LEAST WHAT THEY ARE) DIMINISHING THRU THE END 
OF THE NR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 AM UPDATE...
SFC WINDS BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE 
MIDWEST. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS ALOFT WITH FLOW OFF THE LK CONFINED TO 
NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLRNG ELSEWHERE. DO NOT FORESEE 
ANY RVR VLY FOG TUE MRNG AS FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC RMNS 10-15KTS AND 
DRY DWPTS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ON NW FLOW. OVRNGT MINS EXPECTED TO 
SETTLE OUT ARND 40F WITH DEEPER VLYS ACRS THE CATS POSSIBLY DIPPING 
INTO THE 30S. WL NOT ADD IN PATCHY FROST AT THIS POINT AS FORMATION 
WL LKLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CAN CLR BUT WL PASS ONTO LATER 
SHIFTS TO BE WARY FOR HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.  

SKIES EXPECTED TO BCM PCLDY ON TUE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG IN 
CYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TROF AXIS BRUSHES NRN ZONES DRG THE AFTN BRINGING 
A SLGT CHC FOR SPRINKLES TO THE TUG HILL. TEMPS WL BE WARMER DRG THE 
DAY TUE AS H8 TEMPS WRM TO NR +7C AS HIPRES BUILDS IN. MIXING LOOKS 
TO OCCUR UP TO ARND 900MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S BY AFTN. 

HIPRES WL RULE THE AREA WX THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS 
MODERATING INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY. H5 HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO SETTLE 
OUT AROUND ARND 590DM INTO THURSDAY THO MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A 
WEAKNESS IN THE UPR LVLS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN 
THE PD, WHICH CUD THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE UPCOMING NICE 
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS
AROUND 588 DM OVER THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS 
IN THE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE TN
VALLEY BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MAY INITIATE WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS MODIFYING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOLER AIR WORKING INTO THE FCST AREA ON NWLY FLOW AS AN UPR LVL
TROF MOVS THRU THE RGN. XPCT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN
IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME...WITH CONDITIONS APRCHNG ALT MINS AT
ITH/BGM THIS MRNG. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA WILL AT SYR/RME DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. XPCT CIGS TO RISE TO LOW-END VFR AT AVP LATE THIS
MRNG...AND ELM/BGM/ITH BY EARLY AFTN WITH MVFR PERSISTING AT
SYR/RME. CIGS XPCTD TO RISE TO VFR AT SYR/RME LATE IN THE DAY.
TNGT...XPCT MAINLY VFR WITH PATCHY STRATO-CU...MAINLY OVER CNTRL
NY. WINDS BECMG NWLY...INCRSNG TO 15-25 BY MID MRNG AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTN HRS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN VALLEY
FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...






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