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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 060239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
939 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
935 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES. THE KBGM
VWP WAS SHOWING A 310-320 DEGREE FLOW FROM 1 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET AGL BUT
THE SFC FLOW WAS BACKING TO THE WEST NOW AND PUSHING THE LIGHT
SNOW FLURRIES MORE TO THE EAST OF WHERE WE HAD THEM EARLIER.
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHRT
WAVE TROF WILL PASS E OF THE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z WITH SUBSDC
KICKING IN. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC RDG TO COVER PA AND NY LATE
TONIGHT AND SHUD GRADUALLY END THE LES SNOW FLURRIES AS DRY
ADVECTION OCCURS AND THE INVERSION IS PRESSED DOWNWARD. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE IN THIS SEEMINLY NEVER
ENDING WINTER OF 2014-15. MINS SHUD DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY OF OUR
COLDER VALLEYS AND STAY CLOSE TO ZERO ON OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS. SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER 300
FLOW BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO DRY AIRMASS AND LOW
INVERSION HEIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF DRY AIR. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND
20. AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SPREAD 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REGION WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION THAN THE NAM. SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA TO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE NRN CWA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
IN WAA FORCING. ACCUMS OVER THE NRN CWA WILL BE UP TO TWO INCHES.
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MAXES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPR 20S
WITH READINGS LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE
BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWS TAKING TRACKS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING
IN A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY, BEFORE DEPARTING
EARLY MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT IN ANY EVENT A COUPLE TO AT MOST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AS HIGHS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
FOLLOWING THIS FIRST SYSTEM THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHIELD ARE PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
HIGHS TUESDAY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID TO HI LEVEL VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK E AND S THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. A NW FLOW OF AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WAS ADVECTING LAKE
MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO WITH ENHANCEMENTS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES DOWN IN THE VCNTY OF KITH AND KBGM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KSYR.
THE FLOW DIRECTION WAS ABOUT 310-320 DEGREES WHICH WAS A DECENT
FLOW FOR BOTH LOWER MVFR CIGS AT KITH AND KBGM...LESS SO AT KSYR. THERE
WERE OCCASIONAL SHSN THAT WERE BRINGING KITH DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES
AND HAVE IN THE ITH TAF TEMPO IFR SHSN UNTIL ABOUT 4Z WHEN THE LL
FLOW WILL BACK MORE TO ABT 300 DEGREES OR SO. AT KBGM I HAVE SOME
MVFR UNTIL ABT 4Z ALSO WHEN THE FLOW BACKS. REST OF TAFS WILL BE
VFR WITH MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS THRU THE FORECAST PD. THE EXCEPTION
IS FOR KSYR WHICH WILL SEE SOME LOWER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THRU FRI
AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS.

WINDS WILL BE NW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND BE W-SW 5 TO 10 KNOTS MOST OF FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...VFR.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TUES....VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DJN






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