000
FXUS61 KBGM 241522
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1122 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
...RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. A
STEADY WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...THE FIRST SUMMER HOLIDAY IS STARTING AS ANYTHING
BUT WITH A RPT OF SLEET IN STEUBEN COUNTY AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE UPR 30S DURING THE LATE MRNG DESPITE THE CALENDAR DATE. WHILE
I XPCT THE TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES...HAVE ADJUSTED
THE AFTN FCST MAX WELL DOWNWARD. ADJUSTED THE POP TO BETTER
REPRESENT THE AREA OF SHWRS...BUT STILL CONT CHANCE THRU THE AFTN
WITH THE CAA AND INSTABILITY. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE... SFC COLD FRNT WAS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MRNG...HAVING REACHED OUR SERN ZNS AS OF THIS WRITING. THE
FRNT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE FA BY 10-11Z. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE UPR 30S-MID 40S OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA
ATTM...OWING TO STG LOW-LVL CAA POST-FROPA. AS FAR AS PCPN IS
CONCERNED...STEADIER SHRA HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL TO OUR E...AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SWEPT TWDS NEW ENG/NJ/NYC. HOWEVER...SCTD
-SHRA ARE STILL PREVALENT ALL THE WAY BACK TO WRN NY/SRN
ONT...WITH A SIG UPR-LVL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OH VLY ATTM.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...-SHRA WILL LIKELY GROW IN
COVERAGE...SPCLY BY THIS AFTN...AS STG DPVA WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDY...ALG WITH COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS. WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS/SCTD
VERBIAGE THIS AM...GOING TO LIKELY/CAT POPS BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
PLACES...PARTICULARLY OUR ERN ZNS. 

TEMPS TDY WILL BE SOME 25-35 DEGS COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
READINGS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
ONLY HOVER IN THE 50S MOST OTHER PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE... TEMPS WILL BE COLD TNT...WITH 30S TO LWR 40S
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD BE AN EASY SITN FOR A
FROST ADVSY ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...ONLY OUR WRN ZNS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE ANY CLEARING LATE TNT. ALSO...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVER THE
ENTIRE RGN...AS THE PRES GRADIENT STAYS TIGHT. THESE TWO FACTORS
SHOULD COMBINE TO MAKE FROST FORMATION UNLIKELY. IN FACT...OUR ERN
ZNS MAY WELL SEE CONTINUED SHWR ACTIVITY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVE HRS. 

SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SCTD -SHRA MAY HANG ON OVER ERN SXNS...THEY
SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...WITH THE AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. UPR TROUGH
STARTING TO PUSH SLOWLY EWD. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE MOST AREAS...PARTICULARLY OUT ACRS THE FINGER LKS RGN.
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND...REACHING THE MID 50S-LWR 60S IN
THE AFTN.

SAT NGT LOOKS COLD AGN...BUT ALSO STILL FAIRLY BREEZY...WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOW TO BUILD IN. LTR SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASCERTAIN
IF THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENUF TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. 

SUN AND SUN NGT...THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUN...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUN NGT. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S SUN AFTN...BUT ARE LIKELY TO DROP SHARPLY
AFTER SUNSET. BY SUN NGT/EARLY MON...BETTER RADIATING CONDS ARE
FORESEEN...SO FROST COULD DVLP IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE COOL AIRMASS BECOMES MODIFIED. ON TUESDAY...850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER CENTRAL NY AND N PA. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUES INTO WED ATTENDANT TO A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA.

PREV DISC... UPR LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NWRD OUT OF NEW ENG WHILE A NLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. STRONG SUN ANGLE HELPS
TOP MODIFY THE AIR MASS BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NRML FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
LATE TUE INTO WED AS THE HI RETREATS AND WRM FNT OVER THE MIDWEST
PUSHES NE. MUCH WRMR AIR RETURNS FOR WED AND WITH THE FNT STILL
OVER NRN NY AND WRN NEW ENG...PSBLTY OF SOME TRWS THRU THE END OF
THE PD.

MODEL GUID IN LINE WITH HPC GUID WHICH WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY STATE...OR RISE SLIGHTLY BY A
CATEGORY FROM IFR-MVFR THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TAKES PLACE. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WILL BE
LAST TO RECOVER FROM THE MORE RESTRICTIVE CATEGORIES BY AROUND
NOON. THE COOL ADVECTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROLONG OVERCAST CIGS
LONGER THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGEST...SO HAVE NOT IMPROVED CIGS TO
HIGHER ALTITUDE VFR UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND HOPING THAT
TIMING WILL SUFFICE. MORE IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...ALBEIT BLUSTERY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS NORTHWEST AND GUSTY 15-25 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z TO
AROUND 10 KTS.


OUTLOOK...

SAT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR CIGS.
SUN-MON...VFR NO CIG.
TUE...VFR. HIGH LVL CIGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB