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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 121847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...REACHING THE 30S AND LOWER
40S. FRIDAY WILL BE MILDER...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE
40S. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND FRONTAL COMPLEX...WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN...LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM EDT UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA
TODAY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
GUSTY AT THE SFC THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE MSLP
GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. TONIGHT... THE SFC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION WHICH WILL FORCE THE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SNEAKS AROUND THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE MID LVL RIDGE ATTENDANT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.
MOISTURE AT THE LOWEST LVLS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY... THUS JUST
EXPECT CLOUDS FROM THIS WAVE... AND MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA... TO MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS.
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY EVEN THOUGH SOME MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE... TNT WILL BE CLEAR AND CHILLY...WITH HIGH PRES
DIRECTLY OVHD. ALTHOUGH OUR STRING OF MILDER DAYS RECENTLY HAS
STARTED TO GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT THE SNOWPACK...IT CERTAINLY
REMAINS DEEP ENUF TO HELP ACCELERATE THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
PROCESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN OUR
NORMALLY COLDER AREAS BY SUNRISE FRI...WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.

ON FRI...MRNG SUNSHINE SHOULD FADE BEHIND THICKENING CLDS DURG THE 
AFTN...OUT AHD OF OUR NEXT WX DISTURBANCE. DESPITE DIMINISHING
INSOLATION...TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE QUITE MILD (RANGING IN THE
40S)...AS 925-850 MB WAA KICKS IN.

MODEL TRENDS WITH THE LATEST RUNS SHOW LESS PCPN FOR CNY/NE PA
WITH THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM...AS THE BEST FORCED ASCENT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE PROGGED TO STAY DOWN OVER THE MID-ATL RGN.
JUST THE SAME...THOUGH...WE ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME LGT PCPN
FRI NGT AND SAT...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RESIDUAL LOW-LVL
COLD AIR AT THE ONSET (LATE FRI NGT AND EARLY SAT MRNG) OVER
ROUGHLY THE NRN/ERN HALVES OF THE CWA...COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF PD
OF SLEET AND/OR FRZG RAIN. STG WAA ABV THE BLYR LOOKS TO PRECLUDE
THE PSBLTY OF ANY SNOWFALL ATTM. WE'LL ADD THE MENTION OF A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX INTO THE HWO LATE FRI NGT/EARLY SAT IN THE ABV
MENTIONED AREAS. FORTUNATELY...AS ALLUDED TO ABV...THE MODEL TREND
IS FOR LWR QPF (0.25-0.5" AT MOST)...SO DESPITE A CONTINUED
GRADUAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN
AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SAT NGT...AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST...A NWLY FLOW CAA
REGIME SHOULD SET IN. AT THE SAME TIME...A COMPACT BUT FAIRLY
VIGOROUS S/WV / UPPER LOW IN THE NRN STREAM APPROACHES...TO BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN AND ERN ZNS.
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SXNS OF THESE AREAS COULD SEE SOME LGT
SNOW ACCUMS LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

ACTIVE UNSTABLE PATTERN. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THEN
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH WAA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
CLIPPER DROPS SE THROUGH THE AREA MON NGT WITH MORE MIXED PRECIP.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH IT CLOSES OFF IN NEW ENGLAND AND SE
CANADA KEEPING THE TROF OVER THE NE US. A COLD NW FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CENT NY SNOW SHOWERS WITH LESSER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
NE PA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THURSDAY BUT LEANING WITH THE COLDER EURO WHICH
KEEPS THE NW FLOW GOING. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS INTO THE NE US TROF. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSUE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL
BECOME BROKEN AT 10K FT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. 

STRONG NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE AFTN TO UNDER 10 KTS THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY E TO SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. 

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN...VFR

FRI NIGHT / SAT / SUN...MVFR LIKELY AND POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW.

MON...VFR.

MON NGT AND TUES...MVFR DUE TO SNOW AND RAIN. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






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