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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 202317
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
CHRISTMAS DAY, AND BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS OVER THE FAR NORTH, THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS ENSHROUDED UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HAVE MADE A FEW ALTERATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND THE MOST RECENT
MESOSCALE PROGS. 

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE HEADING INTO THE EVENING.

3 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUD STRATUS
SHIELD ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF PA AND MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NY. THERE WAS CLEARING IN THE NRN 1/3 OF NY AT THIS TIME WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SFC WINDS ARE TURNING TO MORE
NORTH AND EVEN NORTHEASTERLY AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF CANADA DOWN TO THE NORTHEAST U.S BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MORE SRLY AT THIS TIME
AS THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ADVECT THIS LOW CLOUD
SHIELD BACK FARTHER N TO SOME EXTENT COVERING ONEIDA CO AND OUR
FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHICH NOW MAKES FOR DAY 13 WITH NO
APPRECIABLE SUN IN OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ONEIDA CO TODAY AND A
FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE AT TIMES OTHER AREAS. 

A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS CLOSE TO 925 MB OR SO
AS PER ACARS DATA FROM SEVERAL FLIGHT PATHS ACRS NY AND PA. THERE
WAS STILL A DECENT AMNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS STUBBORN
INVERSION AS PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ACARS
DATA HAVING THE INVERSION NEAR 925 MB. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKENING LL NW FLO PATTERN FROM ITH TO BGM AND
HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS UNTIL ARND 00Z WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS. LATER
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
PROVIDE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS
NEAR SATURATION. THIS CUD LEAD TO A SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM
INTRODUCING ICE CRYSTALS INTO THE CLOUDS AND SOME MORE FLURRIES
LATER TONIGHT/ERLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY
NIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES OUR AREA CLEAR OUT? 
12Z EURO...GFS...AND NAM ALL HAVE VERY WEAK FLOW AT 925 MB AND A
SLOW NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE VERY HIGH RH VALUES. SOME
CLEARING IS NOTED FOR NRN PA TO SW NY ON THE EURO AND ACROSS PTNS
OF NE PA AND C NY ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM THE GLOOMIEST KEEPING
THE CLOUDS AS INFERRED BY THE HIGH 925 MB RH OVER OUR REGION. THE
FLO JUST ABV 925MB DOES TURN MORE W-SWRLY SUNDAY WHICH APPARENTLY
ADVECTS IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM SW OF OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE...OHIO IS COMPLETELY SOCKED IN NOW WHICH DOES
NOT BODE WELL. HOWEVER...A LL SW FLOW DOWNSLOPES OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVEN HOW THIN THIS CLOUD LAYER IS I CUD SEE BREAKS DEVELOP
SIMILAR TO THE EURO, ESPECIALLY, WHICH HAS A BELIEVEABLE PATTERN IN
THE RH VALUES. WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING AS THE DAY WEARS ON
BUT IT SHUD BEGIN CLDY...SO IT MAY AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY
AREAS WHICH WOULD BE DAY 14!!

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH AS GUIDC AT NIGHT AND
WON/T BE AS HIGH AS GUIDC IN THE DAY BECAUSE OF THE LL COLD AIR
AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE DECEMBER MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURG THE DAY AND STARTING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MORNING.

MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS BRING SOME SORT OF SFC WAVE UP THE COAST FROM
OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE DELAMARVA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING IT. THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE SUGGESTING
A PRECIP SHIELD TRACKS ACRS NE PA AND SE NY MONDAY NGT AND ERLY
TUE. THE EURO IS ALSO MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A
LITTLE LATER BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BTWN 6Z
TUES AND 18Z TUES. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND ONLY HAD VERY LIGHT
QPF...LIKELY DRIZZLE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS
COMPLETELY LOSES THIS WAVE AND THE PRECIP IS GENERATED BY WAA/ISEN
LIFT. BUT THE ISENTROPES ON THE GFS ARE SUBSIDING CANCELLING OUT
SOME OF THE LIFT. INDEED HGHT RISES ARE HIGHER ON THE GFS VS EURO. 
IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT. SO
INTRODUCE SLGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP...HIGHEST POP IN
OUR SE ZONES LOWEST IN NW ZONES OF THE FINGER LAKES MONDAY NGT.
FOR TUESDAY HAVE LOW CHC POPS NW TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY IN THE
SERN ZONES.

PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE ONSET. I BASICALLY GO FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY NGT/ERLY TUESDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET. WILL TRANSITION ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN AS TEMPS EVERYWHERE CLIMB ABV FREEZING TUESDAY.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ALONG WITH THE HOLIDAY STORM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
305 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TREND CONTINUES
WITH POTENTIAL LARGE STORM OVER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OF THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED
SFC LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CANADA... WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THESE TWO FEATURES AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALL ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AS STRONG WAA WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
RAIN UNTIL 06Z ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO TRANSITION
RAIN OVER TO SNOW THAN THE GFS. IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO PIN
POINT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY
AS WE MAY STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT REGION THURSDAY.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE WINDS MAY BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM THIS
STORM ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION.

TEMPS WED AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
RISING INTO THE LOW 50S. COLDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURS. FRI AND SAT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S.

WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS STORM. FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS
PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PERSISTENT INVERSION AND A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT
WILL YIELD MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET.

CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THICK TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH THERE 
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. 

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT TO MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE-THURS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP






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