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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 020558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE... 
VERY QUIET AT THIS MOMENT...BUT HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY MORNING DUE TO PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE. 
ALSO...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASING FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE...AND
AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAKING FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID NIGHT FOR THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING.

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINESSE TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MAIN BATCH OF STORMS TUESDAY...ROUGHLY 2PM WNW TO 9PM ESE.
STILL CONCERNED FOR RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS PRIMARY THREAT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED BELOW. LOCAL ANALOG
PROGRAM RETURNS SEVERAL PAST CASES WITH AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND
DAMAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
FOLLOWED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... VRBL CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HRS...WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS...AND ALSO VSBY'S IN
BR/HZ/-SHRA AT MOST SITES...SPCLY IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. AT
KELM...HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TIME WINDOW FOR DENSE
FOG FORMATION ARND DAYBREAK...SO HERE WE'VE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR.

FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...UNDERNEATH A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD. BY LATE AFTN...THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A LN OF SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL MARCH ACRS THE RGN...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A COLD FRNTL BNDRY.
FOR NOW...WE'VE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA WITHIN A NARROW
2-HR TIME FRAME AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THIS EVE...BEHIND THE COLD FRNT...IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ONCE AGN...SPCLY ACRS CNTRL/ERN NY. WE'VE
INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM ONLY.  

OUTLOOK...

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ






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