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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301651
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATE THIS MORNING AND DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FLURRY OR TWO MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL
DATA.

VSBL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID MASS OF SC CLDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG. LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES (15-16C LAKE/850 MB
DIFFERENTIAL)...LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND AN UPSLOPE NWLY
FLOW REGIME WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING THESE CLDS IN PLACE
THIS AFTN...AND LIKELY RIGHT INTO THIS EVE AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A
MID-LVL S/WV IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING CNY/NE PA ATTM...WE
SHOULD GET INTO SOME SINKING MOTION ALOFT THIS AFTN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
ACRS THE TWIN TIERS. BUT AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT
CLDS WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND.

ISOLD -SHRA MAY CONTINUE TO DOT AREAS SE OF LK ONT INTO EARLY
AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL...THESE SHWRS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WITH TIME.

OUR EXISTING HIGH TEMP FCST (MID 40S-LWR 50S) LOOKS GOOD...BASED
ON RGNL 12Z SNDGS...AND EXPECTED SLGT LOW-LVL CAA INTO THIS AFTN.

PREV DISC... 230 AM EDT UPDATE... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY
THIS MORNING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
AROUND AROUND NEGATIVE 7 OR BELOW. THE DECREASE IN THE TEMPS ALOFT
HAVE ALLOWED THE INVERSION TO BECOME STRONGER. THE STRENGTHENED
INVERSION RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA... ONEIDA... AND MADISON
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 280-290 DEGREES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 280-290
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 10Z THE MEAN FLOW
WILL START TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF 300 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TRANSITION OF THE SINGLE BAND TO BECOME SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DUE TO CAA EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL AND REACH THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING. 

BY 15Z THIS MORNING THE DEPTH UNDER THE INVERSION REALLY STARTS TO
DECREASE... THUS IF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER 15Z OVER CENTRAL
NY... EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY LIGHT IF NOT SPRINKLES. BY 18Z THE
INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END.

THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WE LACK ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALOFT AND BC WE HAVE WEAK FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IF NOT OVERCAST.
BY 00Z EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA... BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST LONG AS A STRONG UPPR LVL LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE... THUS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGHLY TALKED ABOUT AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER MI AND THE SFC LOW WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSFER FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH IMPACTING A COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR CWA.
EXPECT THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT WE MISS
THE BRUNT OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE
WILL HAVE QUIET WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW THAT IS LOCATED NORTH OF OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. EVEN
THOUGH WE MISS THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL WILL STILL BE
IMPACTED DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL START IN THE FAR WEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW BECOMES LESS AND LESS WITH EACH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE RUN AS TEMPS JUST SEEM TO BE TO WARM. BY THE TIME THE
AIRMASS BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL END. 

TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TILL SUNDAY. CAN NOT 100% RULE OUT A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS SAT NIGHT... BUT CHANCES FOR THAT LOOKS SLIM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE'VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. 

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE NYS TERMINALS. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO OCCUR AT KRME/KSYR. BY EARLY AFTERNOON CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS KITH/KBGM WHERE MVFR MAY
STILL PERSIST. OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO REMAIN
VFR.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AM...VFR.

FRI PM THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN AND MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM






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