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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 051903
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND TWO INCHES.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED
FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY BUT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS AND OBS INDICATE SNOW ACROSS
EXTREME SE FA IS NOW DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. ACTIVITY WILL BE
COMPLETELY OVER BY MIDDAY AS COLD/DRY AIR CONTINUES BUILDING
SOUTH. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY
THEN BEGIN FALLING BY MID AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST.

825 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SE FA
AND LATEST NAM12 AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA,
WAYNE, PIKE AND SULLIVAN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS IN THIS REGION WILL BE
AROUND TWO INCHES. NO OTHER CHANGES.

3 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND NOW A BAND OF STEADY SNOW IN
THE FAR SOUTH IS BEING PUSHED SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS IN CNY ALSO
DROPPING SE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. CAA THIS MORNING WILL ADD
SOME LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE. CAA ENDS MIDDAY WHILE AN UL TROF MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CWA. SATURATED MOISTURE ALL BELOW 5K FT BUT
DENDRITE ZONE BETWEEN SURFACE AND 5K FT TOO. SOME WEAK LIFT TODAY
AND EVENING THEN LES QUICKLY DIES AS HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN NY WILL BE
MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS.

WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALREADY RETREATING SOUTH SNOW
AMOUNTS IN NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TODAY WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND MOSTLY IN THE FAR SOUTH.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SKIES WILL
CLEAR...WINDS WILL DROP AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SINGLE
DIGITS. IN THE NE QUARTER OF CWA APPARENT TEMPERATURES GET TO
AROUND -15 WHICH IS THE CRITERIA FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
BORDERLINE EVENT WITH WINDS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTROL
OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WARM A TAD OVER TODAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT DROPS SE INTO NE NY. LIGHT SNOW MAY
BRUSH ONEIDA COUNTY LATE. 

SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE A COLD FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE CWA WITH
LIGHT SNOW. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. SNOW AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS
THAN AN INCH WITH 1 TO 3 IN THE FAR NORTH. GFS SLOWER THAN EURO
WITH FRONT AS A WEAK LOW COMES THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE
BROAD TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWS TAKING TRACKS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING
IN A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY, BEFORE DEPARTING
EARLY MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS BUT IN ANY EVENT A COUPLE TO AT MOST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AS HIGHS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
FOLLOWING THIS FIRST SYSTEM THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHIELD ARE PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
HIGHS TUESDAY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MILDER AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR RESTRICTIONS IS KITH/KBGM AND
POTENTIALLY KSYR. FOR KITH, EXPECT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF CAYUGA LAKE. LOW STRATUS AFFECTING KBGM AS WELL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONTINUING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
KSYR/KRME, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AT THIS POINT WE DON'T EXPECT THIS
TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. FINALLY, SNOW HAS EXITED KAVP WITH NO FURTHER
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THERE. ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY AND DRY DAY SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECT NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. 



.OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT...VFR.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SUN NIGHT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TUES....VFR. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...PCF






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