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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 270807
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
407 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL AGAIN
TODAY. THIS COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY,
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR AUGUST SLOWLY MOVING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 850MB TEMPS OF ONLY 8C ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ONE
SHORT WAVE NOW SETTING OFF SHOWERS E AND SE OF THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A 290 LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA NOW WILL REMAIN AS LL FLOW SHIFTS TO
310. SHOWERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN WINDS DROPPING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS AND
GREATEST NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM THE SE SO THAT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
MID 70S. 

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ON THE EAST COAST WHILE A STACKED
LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEP SW FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH AROUND 80 SAT AND EVEN
WARMER SUNDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS BRING SHOWERS INTO CENT NY SAT
NGT SO LEFT THE SCHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/POPS BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. IN
GENERAL, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS YET THIS
SUMMER. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S UNDER MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND (SUPERBLEND) EXCEPT
UTILIZED WPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL, MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE
AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE BRING THE RISK OF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EAST. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL/MOIST AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS
BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
IN GENERAL, CIGS ACROSS THE NYS TERMINALS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR/LOW MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KAVP,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. OVERNIGHT, SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

W/SW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING WITH
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM AS USUAL. SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BUT RESTRICTIONS NOT WIDESPREAD OR BRIEF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...RRM



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