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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 241902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS STILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 00Z EXPECT
SKC TO SET IN AT ALL TERMINALS. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG
POTENTIAL AT ELM. HAVE KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z AT 2SM
THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z. RADIATION CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
PERFECT BUT WIDE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

WINDS BECOMING LGT AFTER 00Z THEN INCREASE TO OUT OF THE WNW FROM
4-8KTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






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