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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 192257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE 
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST. 

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP






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