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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 311758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE... 
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS 
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO 
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION 
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE 
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY 
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN 
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME. 

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS 
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL 
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD 
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND 
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT 
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS, 
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT. 

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER 
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER 
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY 
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN. 

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO 
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN 
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG 
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT 
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN 
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE 
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR 
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS 
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV 
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND 
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT 
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL 
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES 
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO 
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC 
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS. 

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST 
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO 
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY 
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY 
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH 
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP 
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO 
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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