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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 261039
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND GIVE US DRY, BUT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE... 

HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GEORGIA IS PROVIDING OUR CWA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING.
AGAIN SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE. FOG IS IN THE USUAL AREAS OF THE
SRN TIER AND CATSKILLS IN NY AND NE PA. ALOFT WEAK ZONAL FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE S AND SE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW. INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM TUESDAY UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES TO START FROM THE SRN TIER SOUTH WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO STRONGER LL WINDS. 

WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE FORCING. TIMING ALSO NOT GOOD WITH FROPA
WED AM. NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE MORNING SUN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S. IN CENT NY CLOUDS AND SCT TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TO MIDDAY SYR AND UCA
AND MID AFTN SRN TIER. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND FORCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS WILL CAUSE
LITTLE RUNOFF.

WED NGT AND THU NW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRY AND COOLER
AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SFC HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER ALL THE GREAT
LAKES THU THEN OVER THE NE US FRIDAY. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. TROP
SYSTEM WELL OFF COAST AND STACKED LOW OVER EXTREME SE CANADA TOO
FAR AWAY TO GIVE US ANY SHOWERS. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR
CUMULUS WITH SOME ADDED LAKE MOISTURE. HAVE HIGH END SCT FOR SKY
COVER WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPPED THU. THU NGT BECOMES CLEAR WITH
THE HIGH PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND CUTTING OFF THE NW LL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATN
WILL STAY IN TACT ACRS THE NRN TIER OF STATES AND SRN CANADA THIS
PD. THIS WILL BRING NRN STREAM S/WVS AND ASSOCD SFC FRNTS THROUGH
ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS...WITH LTL OR NO PCPN IN BETWEEN.

SENSIBLE WX-WISE...WE SHOULD START OUT DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH S/WV RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EWD ACRS NY/PA. OVER THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE OUR NEXT S/WV AND
SFC COLD FRNT APPROACH FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS APPEARS TO BE LATE SAT INTO SUN FROM THIS EARLY
VANTAGE PD...WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCHC-CHC POPS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE AUG...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S-LWR 80S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER 18 HOURS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DENSE IFR FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AT KELM
WITH VISBYS 1/4-1/2SM AND VV001-VV002 CEILINGS. THE FOG WILL BREAK
UP AND LIFT BETWEEN 13Z AND 1400Z.

VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF BGM/ELM BETWEEN 8Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS A FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD WESTERN NY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIG AND A PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...OTHERWISE VFR.

WED NGT-FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP






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