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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220828
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR...AND ALSO A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
LK SNOWS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THIS EVNG WITH ONLY EXTRM NRN
ONEIDA CNTY EXPERIENCING SNOWS AT THIS TIME. BAND OF SNOW ACRS
CNTRL PART OF LK ONTARIO LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AS OF 00Z AS
WINDS ARE BACKING TO THE WEST PER KTYX VWP. FURTHER BACK TO THE
WEST VAD WINDS FROM KBUF SHOWING SW FLOW FM THE SFC UP TO 5KFT AND
EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE MVG UP THE LKSHORE THRU THE EVNG. BAND
SHUD SHIFT OUT OF CWA BY 03Z WITH JUST LINGERING FLURRIES
EXPECTED. THRU THIS TIME, EXPECT ABOUT AN INCH OR TWO TO FALL
ALONG THE CNTY LINE.

WITH SKIES BCMG MOCLR OVRNGT IN SOME LOCALES THINK THAT PROJECTED
OVRNGT MINS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE TEENS. CLR SKIES ACRS THE SRN
AND ERN SXNS WL LKLY LEAD TO COOLEST TEMPS ACRS DEEPER VLYS IN THE
WRN CATS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. NO CHGS NEEDED
TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TWEAKING HRLY T/TD VALUES.

LOOK AT LATEST MODELS NOW SUGGEST VRY LITTLE CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT ONSET OF PCPN FOR EARLY SAT AFTN. THINKING IS THAT
SLEET AND/OR RAIN/FZRA IS LKLY AT ONSET. WL PASS ONTO LATER SHIFTS
TO EVALUATE 00Z RUNS AS DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE MAKING ANY
DRASTIC CHGS ON OFF-RUNS.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
1 PM UPDATE... MULTI-BAND LES IS BCMG CELLULAR IN APPEARANCE EARLY
THIS AFTN...AS TERRESTRIAL INSTAB AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DETRACTS
FROM THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE LES BANDS MAY BRIEFLY FLARE UP
AGN LTR THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS (AFTER 21-22Z)...AS THEY DRIFT
NEWD...OWING TO BACKING LOW-LVL WINDS. HOWEVER...THE TRANSITORY
NATURE OF THE SNOW BANDS AT THAT POINT SHOULD LIMIT ADDNL ACCUMS
(KEEPING THEM GENERALLY 1-2"...OR LESS ACRS PTNS OF
ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA CNTYS).

OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MRNG...MAINLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED FOR CNY/NE
PA...AS ANY LINGERING LES DRIFTS WELL NWD AND WKNS. A BRIEF PD OF
CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLDS AGN TWDS
DAYBREAK...OUT AHD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 

MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z RUN IS DVLPG LGT PCPN TWDS
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN SAT...SPCLY OVER CNY...DUE TO STG LOW-LVL WAA...AND
THE APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE S/WV FROM THE W. AT THIS
PT...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A BRIEF PD OF FRZN/FRZG PCPN AT THE
ONSET. FOR THIS REASON...WE'LL CALL FOR A MIX OF -SN/-PL/-FZRA
INITIALLY...WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM W TO E...AS THE
BLYR GRADUALLY WARMS. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY/UNCERTAIN FOR AN ADVSY
ATTM...SO WE'LL RETAIN MENTION OF A PSBL WINTRY MIX ON SAT IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM UPDATE...

THE QUICK HITTING WEAK WAVE ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BIGGEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CNY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES...BUT NOT MUCH QPF. 
THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANY EARLY ONSET MIXED PRECIPITATION
CHANGES OVER TO LIGHT RAIN IN THE FINGER LAKES/MOHAWK VALLEY...HOWEVER...
COLDER AIR LOCKING INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS COULD PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
HERE AT ALL...THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
THE WRN CATSKILLS AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE DIURNAL COOLING
MAY WIN OUT IN THE EVENING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
OVERWHELMING WARM ADVECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING. 

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION...ALTHOUGH
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES OR PASSING SHOWERS. 

FROM SUN NITE TO MONDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS REASONABLE WITH
BRINGING A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF AND DEEP SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL BE A GOOD TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
AS THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS FROM SW-NE ACROSS NEW YORK
AND PA. CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF RAIN EVENT SEEMS RATHER HIGH AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. THE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER
AN INCH...PROBABLY CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH IN THIS AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE FOR US HERE...BUT NOT GOOD NEWS OUT TO
OUR WEST. WE ARE THINKING 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 AM UPDATE... 
A WESTWARD SHIFT IS NOTED IN TRACK FOR THE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. 18Z AND 00Z GFS...WHILE FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO PRIOR
RUNS...ARE STILL OUT TO SEA WITH SURFACE LOW YET BRING BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHIELD VERY NEAR POCONOS-CATSKILLS...AND GFS ENSEMBLES
BEGIN TO EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
ECMWF SURFACE LOW IS MUCH DEEPER AND HUGS CLOSE TO THE
COAST...WITH WINTRY BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD COMFORTABLY OVER
THE AREA /WELL INLAND/. GEM MEANWHILE REMAINS FAR OUT TO SEA.
ENOUGH CONCERN WITH THE TREND TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND A 25-35 PCT 
CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW GENERALLY EAST OF I-81 WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH VOLUME HOLIDAY TRAVEL TIME
THIS BEARS WATCHING...BUT MUCH REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED. THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY TREND WEAKER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA /NO
IMPACT/...SUCH AS THE CANADIAN GEM AND TO LESSER DEGREE THE GFS
CURRENTLY DEPICT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL SET THE AREA BACK INTO
NEAR...TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON PERIODS OF MINOR LAKE EFFECT
BANDS OFF ONTARIO...AND THEN A COASTAL LOW (OR TWO?) FLIRTING WITH
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. THE GFS
SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OUT TO SEA...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A
CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WITH A PRIMARY LOW. THE 12Z RUN HAS
LIMITED IT'S WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO THE TREND IS GOING TOWARD THE GFS FISH STORM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES FROM WED-THURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE SFC SOLUTIONS
ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT. THIS LATER SYSTEM MAY STILL BE TOO
FAR EAST BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO AFFECT CNY/NEPA TAKES
PLACE. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POST HOLIDAY TRAVEL
FORECAST...SO WE WILL BE IN WAIT AND SEE MODE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WORSE THAN HIGHER END MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
TAF PERIOD...AS VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY BEGRUDGINGLY YIELDS TO
WEAK WAVE PASSING ALOFT /ALL VFR KAVP WHERE DRY AIR WINS/. ONE
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT...IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID DUE TO THICK ABOVE FREEZING LAYER OF
AIR IN LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET AS THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN...WHICH WILL MELT ANY POTENTIAL FLAKES ON THE WAY DOWN.
SLEET PRODUCTION ALSO APPEARING UNLIKELY AND SO WAS ABLE TO REMOVE
ASSOCIATED PROB30 GROUPS FROM THE TAFS THAT HAD THEM. ONLY SLIGHT
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS KRME ON IF SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT BRIEF -FZRA...BUT EVEN HERE
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ONLY -RA FOR PRECIP TYPE.

FOR REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VARIABLE OR
LIGHT WSW WIND...EXCEPT FOR SOME LEFTOVER LAKE CLOUDS PASSING FROM
KITH TO KSYR-KRME AROUND 4-4.5 KFT AGL. DURING
MORNING...INCREASING CLOUDS 10-15 KFT AGL AND WSW WINDS 7-10 KTS
/ESE FOR KRME/. IN AFTERNOON...DECK LOWERS TO LOW END VFR...WITH
SCT -SHRA BRINGING CIG INTERMITTENTLY INTO HIGH END MVFR FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...KAVP LIKELY STAYING DRY.
WSW WINDS ALSO PICKING UP INTO LOWER TEENS EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED
VALLEY WIND PERSISTING ESE FOR KRME. THEN THIS
EVENING...PREDOMINANT HIGH END MVFR CIG KRME- KITH- KBGM /LOW END
VFR KELM-KSYR/ ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT -SHRA. ONLY LOW CHANCE OF
-SHRA AT BEST FOR KAVP. ONE NOTE OF UNCERTAINTY...PERSISTENT
LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY WIND AT KRME...VERSUS INCREASING SW WIND 2
KFT AGL...COULD POSE MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS LATER TODAY-EARLY
EVENING FOR KRME. NOT IN TAF YET BUT WILL ASSESS FURTHER AND AMEND
INTO A LATER TAF IF NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN MRNG...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING
-RA MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS KSYR-KRME.

LATE SUN MRNG THROUGH SUN EVE...VFR.

LATE SUN NGT AND MON...RESTRICTIONS IN LIKELY RAIN/POSSIBLE FOG.

TUE THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVF
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB/MDP
AVIATION...MDP






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