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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 160535
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE QUICK TO
EXIT IN THE MORNING...YET CLOUDS MAY HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE BREAKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LINGER THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION (HIGHER POPS) OVER CENTRAL NY LONGER BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBS TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 

200 PM UPDATE... PLENTY OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. WAVE
CAN BE SEEN ALREADY CRUISING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS EVENING VIA TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING...AS UPPER LEVELS AND FORCED ASCENT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET...OUTPACE THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON WEAK FRONT-SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPING WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AREA MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. IT IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO WITH
ONLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. ALSO...THE FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO PA...WILL
SHUNT WELL EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY THE TIME THE TROUGH
ARRIVES...PRECLUDING ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES BY DAWN WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUDS MORE
STUBBORN TO BREAK. LOSS OF DIURNAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN
THE DAY SHOULD THEN HASTEN IT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS TO
MAINLY LOW TO MID 60S FROM TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT FARTHER
SOUTH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOONER ALLOWING THE SUN TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
MIDWESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEW COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DROP OUT OF CANADA BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE TWO HIGHS WILL BE
SEPARATED BY A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER COULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES FROM TUG HILL TO FINGER
LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY...OTHERWISE JUST COOL AND CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE NEW YORK ZONES THURSDAY /LESS SO SOUTH OF THE TWIN
TIERS IN NEPA/. 

WITH THE FIRST HIGH NOT COMING OUT OF CANADA...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL ONLY LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN CATSKILL VALLEYS IF ANYTHING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER COME THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DESCENDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MEAN EASTERN TROF PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH IT
RELAXES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS COMING WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL, AND THE WEATHER FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY. 

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
ONTARIO ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COLD FNT PUSHING THRU THE REGION ATTM BRINGING SHWRS AND LWRD CIGS
AND VSBYS. CHANCE OF THE HILLTOP LOCATIOONS...ITH/BGM...TO GO LIFR
OTRW GNRLY VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH THE SYSTEM. MUCH DRIER AIR
MVES IN FOR TUE IWTH A RETURN TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE OD. LGT
WINDS OVRNGT WILL BCOME NW AT LESS THAT 10 KTS BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DGM






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