Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Binghamton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBGM 031927
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
327 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THIS FRONT HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

CONVECTION STARTED MIDDAY WITH ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP.
CONVECTION IS SLOW MOVING WITH THE WEAK WINDS. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SOME HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WHICH HAS SINCE
DIED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UL SHORT WAVE IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH. PLENTY OF CAPE OF 2K BUT LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
GOING. ONLY THREAT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WILL BE HAIL.
CONVECTION WILL DIE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 

TONIGHT PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WITH DRIER AND
LESS HUMID AIR MOVING IN. LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE FRONT. WITH THE CLOUDS SOME LIGHT FOG BUT THE THICKER VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOUTH CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION AGAIN BUT THIS TIME ON S EDGE
IN NE PA. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TERRAIN
WILL HELP WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE WITH THE WEAK WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD ALL DIE TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC WILL PUSH SW
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO MOST OF NY/PA. ALOFT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONVECTION WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RISING INTO
THE MID 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE GETTING FLATTENED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SFC HIGH
PRES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PROVIDE DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE FROPA TIMING WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR UPPER LEVEL RIDGES HANG TUFF AND DELAY
THE PASSAGE OF FRONTS. WILL CARRY CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT
WITH WAVES POSSIBLY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT
EXCEPT FOR KRME NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS DUE TO LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE. BEFORE FROPA ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. THIS EVENING
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. AT KELM INCLUDED
CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS BTW 06Z-14Z. AT KBGM/KITH,
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM 09Z-13Z AND MVFR AT KAVP. AFTER 14Z
ON FRIDAY VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS.

NW WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT N/NE OVERNIGHT THEN E/NE ON
FRIDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS. 

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG
IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy