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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
QUIET WX EXPECTED DRG THE OVRNGT. SFC LOW SITTING UP OVR NRN ONTARIO 
THIS AFTN HAS DRAPED A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WITH PLENTY OF 
MID-CLDS AND AREA OF SHOWERS AHD OF BNDRY. AT WORST, AS FLOW ALOFT 
GOES ZONAL ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY START TO SEE A FEW HIGH CLDS 
SNEAK INTO NRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW SKIES TO GO FM 
MOCLR TO PCLDY NORTH OF THE I-86/I-88 CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS WL SERVE 
TO IMPEDE RADN'L COOLING WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING IN WARM ADVECTION TO 
DROP MUCH INTO THE 40S OVR FAR NW CNTYS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNDER 
MOCLR SKIES EXPECT DEEPER VLYS TO APPCH FRZG. 

SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSUNNY THRU MOST OF THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON 
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY 
MEANDERING ITS WAY TWD THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-15 
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
TROF WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE 
STRUGGLES TO GET ANY MEASURABLE QPF INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA BY 12Z TUE. 
EXPECT THAT THIS DEEPENING WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK. 
WL DELAY POPS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS BUT NOT RMV COMPLETELY FM THE 
NIGHTTIME HRS AS SOME WK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENUF TO GENERATE 
SHOWERS TWD 10Z TUESDAY. INCRSG CLD CVR WL PREVENT TEMPS FM DROPPING 
TOO MUCH OVRNGT WITH OVRNGT MINS SVRL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE U40S 
TO ARND 50 IN MOST AREAS. 

FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE AFTN, MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND EURO WITH 
NAM BEING JUST A TAD TOO FAST. HV UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE 
DAY TUE AND PROGRESSING FM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z UNTIL LATE AFTN AS 
FRONT MVS THRU. WITH SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE 
WAY OF NON-DIURNAL TEMPS DRG THE DAY AND HV KEPT HIGHS ARND 20Z AND 
THESE CAN BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. PW VALUES INCRS 
TO ARND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY WHICH IS 1-2 SD ABV NRML FOR APRIL. ONLY 
EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

LINGERING PCPN IS EXPECTED TUE NGT. H8 TEMPS DROP BLO 0C ACRS MOST 
OF CWA AFT 06Z, BUT H9 AND SFC TEMPS RMN ABV ZERO. HV JUST LEFT 
MENTION OF SHOWERS, THO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LGT FLURRIES OR 
EVEN LGT SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TUE NGT. EXPECT 
SHOWERS WL CONT INTO PART OF THE DAY WED WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED 
BHND FRONTAL BNDRY. HIGHS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH H8 
TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS -5C.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE... 
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THIS
PERIOD WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED...SHOULD BE PASSING INTO EASTERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INTERESTING SHOT OF SUB FREEZING AIR
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON A FRESH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT AND
FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE DRIFT INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. EACH WEATHER FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH FOR THE WHOLE 7
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH THIN
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG LIGHT WINDS AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS
PRESENT OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH MON NGT...VFR.

TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERY FRONT PASSES TUE...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WED MRNG ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU...VFR.

FRI... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM UPDATE...
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WL DROP DOWN TO NEAR 20% IN NEPA AND BETWEEN
25-30% ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KAH
FIRE WEATHER...PN




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