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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 291915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND MILD AGAIN, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BREAKING DOWN AS A SFC LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST KEEPING THE SE ZONES COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF SEP. IN THE WARMER AIR OF CENT NY
SOME CU HAS FORMED BUT THIS WILL DISAPPEAR NEAR SUNSET. WITH LIGHT
TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM. LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE LOW AND MID 50S.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

SOME RAIN SHOWERS FINALLY POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM COMING SE FROM NRN MICHIGAN WILL CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AND SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING
COMES IN CLOSE TO MAX HEATING. AGAIN A BIG DIFFERENCE IN STABILITY
BETWEEN THE MORE STABLE GFS AND NAM. FOR NOW TOOK A BLEND AND
ADDED A LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN THIRD TUES AFTN AND
EVE. MODELS SHOWING MORE RAINFALL WITH THE BULK OF IT FROM THE ELM
TO AVP AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW. AFTER BEING SO DRY IT WILL HAVE
TO RAIN AT LEAST 3 INCHES FOR ANYTHING TO HAPPEN...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM LIKELY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. 

LATE TUE NGT TO WED UNDER THE COLD LOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CHANCES ONLY 20 TO 30 POPS. WED NGT THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND. 

THU A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CWA DRY. TEMPERATURES TUE TO THU STILL ABOVE NORMAL.  

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20 KFT OR HIGHER. 
THESE CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST AFTER 00Z AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE IDEAL NET RADITIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. 
HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KELM AT 5Z AND THEN VLIFR BTWN 8
AND 1330Z WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WHEN THE FOG BREAKS OUT OF
KELM. I DO HAVE SOME MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT KRME...KSYR AND A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT KITH AT 09Z TO 14Z. I DO ALSO HAVE A TEMPO
IFR GROUP AT KBGM BTWN 8 AND 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR IFR BR MOVING OUT
OF THE VALLEY AND BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE KBGM AIRFIELD AT 1600 FEET
WHICH HAPPENS OFTEN. GUIDC SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL. KAVP WILL BE VFR
THRU THE PD. AFTER 14Z...VFR WILL CONT UNDER A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
FIELD. 

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. 

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM.  ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA TUE PM.
FRI NGT...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA. 
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN






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