Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Binghamton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBGM 270556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
A COLD WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR IS KEEPING THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OUT OF PIKE/SULLIVAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE SNOW IN THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER
TURNED OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH SNOW TO H20
RATIO. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY,
SO WE MAY STILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

NO CHANGES TO FLAGS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR'EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR'EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.  

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR'EASTER WITH CLDS 
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C 
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT 
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST 
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG. 

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO 
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL 
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS 
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW 
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT 
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN. 

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH 
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT 
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY. 

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN 
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR. 

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. 

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES. 

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW. 

OUTLOOK...

 
TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy