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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 242030
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALREADY EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS UP THE LAKE PLAIN AS A POTENT LLJ
RIDES UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WILL KEEP ADVISORIES INTACT, AS IT APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE NY. SUB-ADVISORY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN PA.

TREND OF MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH...NO
STRONG ADVECTION NOTED...AS COLD AIR SORTA BLEEDS IN SLOWLY. 

WITH NO SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA, THINK WE CAN MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
FROM LUZERNE INTO PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 315 PM... IN GENERAL THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS INCLUDING SPEEDING UP
THE ONSET OF SNOW SLIGHTLY AND ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH... BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE OTSEGO
COUNTY NY AND WEST TO INCLUDE LUZERNE... LACKAWANNA AND WYOMING
COUNTIES IN PA. GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST PA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NY ON THE
BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT AS THE NAM MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A COLDER AND FARTHER
EAST SOLUTION... WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/SREF AND LATEST ECMWF ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS OF NY WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW WESTWARD TO THE FINGER
LAKES. GEFS ENSEMBLE STILL SHOWING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW
MEMBERS WELL EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A FEW ALSO FARTHER
WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT THROUGHOUT
OUR AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF THE STORM...
WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN THE VALLEYS. THE
WATCH FOR 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FOR THE WILKES- BARRE AND
SCRANTON AREAS IS PRIMARILY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS... AS BUSY HIGHWAYS SUCH AS I-380 AND I-80 ABOVE 1500 FEET
WILL BE IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING SNOWFALL
IN THE VALLEY CITIES OF WILKES- BARRE AND SCRANTON TO BE MORE LIKE
3 TO 5 INCHES... BUT OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY.


425 AM UPDATE... 
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE 
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR 
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. 

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY. 
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE LLWS FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY LLJ MOVING UP LAKE ERIE TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO
LATER TODAY. 2000 FT WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. 

FREQUENT SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY UP THE LAKE PLAIN FROM ELM TO SYR.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MDP/MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






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