000
FXUS61 KBGM 240304
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1004 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REGAIN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SOME SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RA/DZ MOVING NORTH
INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN PA. ACTIVITY IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO SIZABLE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT
THE PRESENT TIME AS NOTED ON KBUF/KALY 00Z RAOBS. AS SLIGHTLY 
HEAVIER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO 
COOL...THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE. AREA BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW HOUNDED
MILLIBARS...THUS CAN EXPECT ON -RA/-DZ ONLY. MAIN FORCING FOR THIS
EVENT CONTINUES TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER WV WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE NJ COAST BY
MORNING. WITH MAIN FORCING REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND NO SIZABLE
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...QPF SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND A MOISTENING AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. OTHER THAN THAT...EVERYTHING APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. ZONES ALREADY SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WITH RIDGING ALOFT THEN REDEVELOPS ON
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. E-SELY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY IN THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE 
POSSIBLE THROUGH DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN A FCST
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE ZONE OVER THE WRN SRN TIER/ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC-CHC FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH NOON. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WORKING INTO THE MSV-AVP REGION.

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT IN
SERIES OF UL TROFS RELOADS OVE THE WRN GTLKS AND UPR MIDWEST. A
MINOR WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNTRL NY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIGGING TROF AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

BLENDED MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE BUT HAVE LEANED WITH
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS ON WEDS/THURSDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSETTING THE ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPR 40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UPON US TO START THE PERIOD AS A
DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO
ROTATE EASTWARD BEGINNING THU NIGHT. BY FRI MORNING...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE SFC LOW WILL RESIDE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND MARTHA'S
VINEYARD EARLY FRI...WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION SHOWING A FURTHER
NORTH POSITION. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WELL DEVELOPED
INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY EARLY FRI WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SUGGESTING IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME DECENT QPF NUMBERS IF THIS MATERIALIZES AS SUGGESTED.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE P-TYPE. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS THE INITIAL P-TYPE BEING MOSTLY RAIN AS H85
TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...WITH VALUES FALLING TO
SUBZERO VALUES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...THE HEAVIEST QPF
WILL OCCUR ON FRI BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...WHICH LENDS SUPPORT TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT AS SFC
WET-BULB TEMP REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON FRI. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE MAIN H50 UPPER-LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY TAKING MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS WITH IT. BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TEMPS STILL RESIDE IN
THE UPPER 40S WOULD NORMALLY HINT AT DECENT LAKE EFFECT
EVENT...HOWEVER THIS DOESN/T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS PER GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE HEIGHTS REMAINING
STAGNANT AROUND 5 KFT. THAT SAID...WHAT LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE
WITH YESTERDAY/S RUNS IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS SO WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. FOR NOW CAN STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION SUFACES ALONG WITH AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FRI NIGHT/SAT...HOWEVER ALL THINGS POINT
TOWARDS A MODEST EVENT AT BEST AS TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
INITIALLY. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KAVP/KBGM BTW 08Z-12Z. AT KAVP, LIGHT DRIZZLE IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AROUND 09Z AT KSYR AND 03Z AT KRME. ON
TUESDAY, CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL STILL BE AROUND 4K FT.

LIGHT E/SE FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...MVFR/PTCHY IFR WITH RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.

* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
  FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
  BACK TO 1902.

BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.

TOP 5

1) 1946          276 DAYS       (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998          274 DAYS       (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009          271 DAYS       (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978          265 DAYS       (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941     263 DAYS       (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...RRM
CLIMATE...