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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301434
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1034 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK PROVIDING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1035 AM UPDATE...
MORE BREAKS OF IN THE CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED ARE SHOWING UP IN
THE CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTION. FEEL MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WAY THE PRECIP IS DRYING UP AND
DYING OUT AS IT INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NY/PA. WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF FAIRLY MILD MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
CUTTING BACK ON THE CLOUD COVER BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 4 AM SHOWED SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN PA/NY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
PRODUCING THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY. WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF FEATURE WILL COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY THEREFORE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS MODELS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
300-700 J/KG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...WAVE WILL EXIT STAGE RIGHT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH 590 DM HEIGHTS BY TUE. ON MONDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S UNDER A PLEASANT
NORTHWEST BREEZE. TUE, AIRMASS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S FOR MAXES. THE BEGINNING OF THE LONGEST STRETCH OF
WARM WEATHER SO FAR THIS SUMMER. ENJOY!

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING AND ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH. BIGGEST POINTS ARE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MODEL BLEND (SUPERBLEND) EXCEPT WENT SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS BY UTILIZING WPC GUIDANCE. 

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE STRONGEST AND
MOST PERSIST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF THE SUMMER WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.TO START THE
PERIOD, DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WHILE WE DO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN
FOR THE LATTER TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING
THAT EVEN IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS
CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...THESE TEMPS
BEING A GOOD 10+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT ALL SITES. A MID CLOUD DECK HAS
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO
MOVING EAST BUT WEAKENING AND ISOLATED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. NOT INCLUDED WITH RESTRICTIONS NOR
EXPECTED. SHOWER OCCURRENCES WILL BE BRIEF. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP.

SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT SO FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM. 

LIGHT EAST OR CALM WINDS UP TO 14Z, THEN INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KTS
FROM THE SW AND W. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC



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