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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 260814
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
414 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...TODAY IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND COOLER WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. A DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
410 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...MARKED BY A GUSTY LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF PEA
TO DIME SIZE HAIL. 

WITH THAT FRONT GONE NOW...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY...WITH THE 850MB ZERO CELSIUS ISOTHERM ALREADY EN ROUTE
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES THERE STILL IN THE
LOWER TEENS CELSIUS...AND A CYCLONIC FLOW CONNECTING UPSTREAM TO
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES BASIN...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SOON
TO ERUPT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK TO WESTERN CATSKILLS
THIS MORNING. ON-AND-OFF SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST THERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE SLACKENING WITH
TIME DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT COMPRESSING THE SATURATED
LAYER. MEANWHILE...THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION WILL HAVE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN ERODE IN SOUTHERN TO
WESTERN REACHES OF OUR AREA TONIGHT /WHILE REMAINING STUBBORN
NORTH AND EAST/.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECTING A STOUT 15-20
MPH WNW WIND WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH DURING PEAK MIXING TODAY. THOUGH
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES DOWN FROM SATURDAY...IT WILL
FEEL EVEN COOLER.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO LOW 40S. IN LOCATIONS WITH
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...EVEN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS I DO NOT EXPECT
SNOW TO MIX IN BECAUSE SATURATED LAYER WILL COMPRESS TO POINT OF
BEING ENTIRELY WARMER THAN MINUS-5 CELSIUS...THUS NO INTRODUCTION
ICE CRYSTALS FROM THE TOP OF THAT LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
410 AM UPDATE... 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN MONDAY DESPITE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION-RELATED HIGH THIN CLOUDS ALOFT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL BEGIN. CLOUDS
THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND I AM
EXPECTING NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE LATE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
FROM WARM FRONT LOOK PRETTY SCANT /DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STAY IN
CANADA/...BUT I STILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FROM NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH MOHAWK VALLEY.

WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AS WE SPEND BRIEF
PERIOD IN WARM SECTOR...WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. SOME
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SPEEDING UP PACE OF INBOUND COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS KNOCKING ON OUR FINGER LAKES ZONES LATE IN THE
DAY...SO I HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES POPS THERE VERY
LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE BEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. SHOWERS LIKELY NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...MORE IFFY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE A RETURN TO COOLER
WEATHER, ESPECIALLY COMPARED WITH THE BALMY TEMPS OF EARLY IN THE
WEEK.

THE END OF THE WEEK TOWARD HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN NIGHT LOOK
INTERESTING. THE OVERALL SETUP OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH OUR AREA BEING IN THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. THE EURO AND GFS
DIVERGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION MUCH MORE RAPIDLY, PULLING
IN VERY COLD AIR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 850 TEMPS DROP TO AS
LOW AS -8C TO -12C BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE AROUND THIS
WOULD BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, EVEN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z EURO IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM, AND THIS WOULD MEAN THE MAIN PUSH OF
COLD AIR WOULD BE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHEAST, THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. SO WHILE COLD, 850S ARE ONLY IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE,
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY JUST RAIN. WPC GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR LOWS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER I DIDN'T WANT TO LEAN TOO FAR AWAY FROM
OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN. I DID WANT TO SHOW SOME MENTION OF
SNOW GIVEN THE CHILLY TEMPS ON WPC GUIDANCE. FOR NOW I HAVE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HALLOWEEN NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH RAIN
ELSEWHERE. A EURO SOLUTION WOULD STILL SUPPORT THIS, WHILE IF THE
GFS IS RIGHT A WHITER SOLUTION WOULD BE NEEDED. ON DAY 7, WE ARE
STILL PLENTY FAR OUT FOR A BROAD SOLUTION RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... BAND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS SEWD ATTM...AND IS NOW SAFELY REMOVED FROM OUR TERMINAL
SITES. 

A BRIEF PD OF CLEARING BEHIND THE ABV MENTIONED ACTIVITY...SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUD COVER TWDS
DAYBREAK...WITHIN A MOIST UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW REGIME. A FEW LAKE-
EFFECT -SHRA MAY ALSO DVLP...BUT VSBY'S WILL LIKELY STAY AOA 6SM. 

ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL EARLY THIS MRNG OVER MANY OF OUR
CNY TERMINAL SITES (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM)...CIG BASES SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BIG STORY TDY WILL
BE THE GUSTY WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE EXPECTED. 

THIS EVE...WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT CIG BASES MAY ALSO
WELL LWR...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ANTICIPATED BY 02-03Z.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...VFR.

LTR TUE NGT-WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ






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