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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 300618
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1050 PM EDT UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TEMPS. FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY GO AWAY TONIGHT AS THE DECK WAS
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE SUN. DO NOT
THINK DECK WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY BUT BECOME MORE PARTY CLOUDY IN
NATURE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT AND BECOME ANOTHER CHILLY
EVENING/EARLY MORNING. TEMPS ARE LOOKING BE IN THE UPPR 40S TO
LOW 50S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. 


240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET. 

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. '

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES. 

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT, WITH AN INCREASING DECK OF MID CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT MOVING
IN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 13Z AT KELM WHERE VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY. WITH CURRENT TEMPS NEAR YESTERDAY'S LOWEST
DEWPOINT (CROSSOVER TEMP), IFR VSBYS ARE LIKLEY. THE BIG QUESTION
IS WILL THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NY NOW MAKE IT INTO KELM THIS
MORNING AND IF THEY DO, WHAT IMPACT WILL THEY HAVE. BASED ON SUCH
PRIME CONDITIONS NOW FOR FOG FELT IT WAS WORTH IFR RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 13Z. WITH THAT SAID I INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO SHOW THAT
CONDITIONS MAY VARY DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE 09Z
UPDATE IF CONDITIONS MERIT, I CAN MAKE SOME CHANGES INCLUDING
LOWERING VSBYS IF FOG IS ABLE TO LOCK IN.

RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE.
WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME IN THE 18Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME, I
TRIED TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES WITH A TEMPO GROUP. 

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
TODAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT OR NEAR CALM. 

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN






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