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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 161837
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
237 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORDS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS NEAR 20 IN MANY PLACES. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FINGER LAKES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. RECORD
LOWS AT BGM/SYR/AVP ARE 22/22/23 AND WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
LOWS NEAR THOSE VALUES AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS. NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR THIS AFTN TO THU AFTN. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FINALLY GIVING UP TO THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOW VFR CIGS AT ITH BGM ELM
WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 20Z. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MAYBE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THURSDAY.  

NW TO N WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THURSDAY
MORNING E TO SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS. 

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
  
SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR AVP. MVFR IN CENTRAL NY. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...






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