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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 300944
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
444 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 444 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO
BE IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

CLIPPER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC...MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
LOW STILL LOOKS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEGATIVELY TILT.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHER NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER VT
INTO THIS EVENING. .

WITH CLOUDY SKIES, SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL
ARRIVE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE 20S. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL REACH NORTHERN
NY WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN VERMONT. ...WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID-
SATURDAY.

NEGATIVE TILTING OF TROUGH WILL SLOW THE LOWS PROGRESSION OUT TO
SEA, KEEPING MOISTURE AND A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HENCE, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TO ALLOW
SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...THOUGH UPSLOPE MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE LOW. 925MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S AND
WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPG WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND ONSET OF CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NORTHERN NY WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
AS IT WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME
DANGEROUSLY COLD, FALLING COLDER THAN -20 DEGREES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF NORTHERN NY IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS AROUND
-30 OR COLDER. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS COLD DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

ONCE SURVIVING THE DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AND HELP THE COASTAL LOW TO MOVE FURTHER TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO WARM
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE DOUBLE DIGITS.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, UPPER WAVE
WILL TRY TO BRING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO NORTHERN
NY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE RANGING FROM NEGATIVE MID-TEENS TO
NEAR ZERO. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS STILL HAVE THIS LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
BENCHMARK (40N 70W) ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND DEW
POINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ON MONDAY. ANY SNOW WILL
LIKELY HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE SURFACE ON MONDAY
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. LIKELY TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT OF
SNOW VERSUS NO SNOW ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREA REMAIN
DRY ON MONDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TUESDAY. EXPECTING MORE SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITHE SURFACE WIND GUSTS BECOMING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 21Z-24Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OFF
THE MAINE COAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY-12Z SATURDAY...SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS SNOW SHOWERS END.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

12Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY 
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH



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