Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 302352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 418 PM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MORE LOW CLOUD MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD
EASTERN VERMONT FROM SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME AS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 418 PM EDT TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AND LOCKED IN ON THE UPCOMING
PATTERN SHIFT.

DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS 
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKING 
NORTHWARD TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. ATTENDING 
SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY WITH 
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO RICH GULF OF 
MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FEEL THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 
RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER SLOW...OFFERING A GOOD 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 
LOW END WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE PRONE REGIONS OF 
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG 50-60KT SOUTHEASTERLY JET 
AT 850MB PRE-FRONT. DOESN'T LOOK AS STRONG AT 925MB RIGHT NOW...BUT 
THEN AGAIN WE'RE LOOKING AT THE COARSE 40KM RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS. 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND 
INTO THE TIME-SCALE OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTIONS MODELS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE 
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THOUGH IN REALITY THEY WON'T BE TOO FAR FROM 
WHAT WE SHOULD BE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. WE'VE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR SO 
LONG THOUGH THAT IT'LL FEEL QUITE CHILLY. HIGH TEMPS SUN/MON/TUE 
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 40S ON 
THE MTN PEAKS...AND LOWS WILL RUN GENERALLY IN THE 40S VALLEYS TO 
30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BEFORE 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT INCREASING POPS AREA-WIDE FOR 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BY 05Z LOOKING FOR MVFR AT KBTV/KPBG/KRUT BUT LOCALLY
IFR/LIFR AT KSLK KMPV KMSS THROUGH 15Z WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE THE EAST AND SE FLOW OVER OVER THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE AGAIN WITH DIFFERING CONDITIONS AT
EACH TAF SITE AND SO LITTLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS RELATIVELY
HIGH AND SOME MIST ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KMSS INDICATING THE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. HAVE FOLLOWED LAMP GUIDANCE
FOR TRENDS IN CIG/VSBY WHICH AGAIN IS LIFR IN SPOTS WITH CIGS
300-500 FT.

IF WINDS DIE OFF VSBY COULD EVEN BE
LOWER (VLIFR <1/2 MI) AT SOME SPOTS BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE JUST
ENOUGH NE-SE WIND TO KEEP OUT FOR NOW.

LOOK FOR SLOW IMPROVING 14-18Z WITH RISING CIGS AND VSBY TO
MVFR/VFR.


OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM
06-15Z EACH DAY.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...SISSON







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy