Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 282222
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
622 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY
DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 619 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO MESH WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN
THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR 
ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH 
AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS 
FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY 
DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT 
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND 
WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE 
RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH 
HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE 
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING 
BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO 
MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND 
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT 
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY
NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
60S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT
APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  

FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR
THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT'S ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY
ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO
INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
(DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN
TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN'T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE
WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS
A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH
FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY
CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON'T BE
ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S. 

MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE'LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY
PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS
MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH
SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID
MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT
SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT 
NIGHT.

TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT
UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. 

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
IS BACK ON "IT'S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS
DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE
BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB
THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS
THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED
DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS
FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT
MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS
TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT
THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I
KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND
5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE
WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS
FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT
KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION.

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM









National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy