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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 171134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE 
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY 
CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A 
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW 
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE 
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH ANY PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATING BY MID
MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...WITH ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...SO WITH SUNSHINE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY 
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 
0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE 
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS 
MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 
AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH 
DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS 
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY 
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING 
BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL 
LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST 
ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF 
THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL 
RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO 
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS 
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL 
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER 
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER 
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.
 
ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE 
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 
NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR 
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND 
+6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT 
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK WITH THE HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUING TO BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY GOING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER VT/NH/ME
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTL BORDER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK
SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC
SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME FROPA TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START
MENTIONING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
YORK...AND ACROSS VERMONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DIVERGE GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS 
SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY COMPARED THE ECMWF IN REGARDS 
TO THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. GFS DEVELOPS A 
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500MB MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE BEST 
AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE BTV CWA...WHILE 
THE ECMWF REMAINS OPEN WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SLOWER 
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. TO SUM IT UP...CONFIDENCE IS 
RATHER LOW WITH EITHER SOLUTION BUT WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY HAVE 
LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME 
LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL...SHIFT TO NEAR OR ABOVE 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK BELOW TO END THE 
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LINGERING MVFR/IFR AT KMPV WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY SKC THIS MORNING UNTIL 15Z WHERE
THEREAFTER MID CLOUDS START TO STREAM IN AT 05-15KFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT...THOUGH DON'T EXPECT ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY OR CIGS. WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...FOG WON'T
BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT EITHER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN
EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR THOUGH CHANCES EXIST
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







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