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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE
NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER
TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN
MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS
40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT
QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER







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