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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 041121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY WITH AN
AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRSTREAM MAKING A RARE 
APPEARANCE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER
W-WSWLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY EVENING/S SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND SOUTH OF NEXT THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON GUSTY S- SW SURFACE WINDS (LOCALLY UP
TO 35 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME
CONTINUED MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE 1-3" OF SNOW THAT
FELL DURING THE 00-04Z PERIOD WEDNESDAY. STILL A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLD FLURRY OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVELS MIX OUT. HAVE
DROPPED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ALREADY GETTING SOME LOW-LEVEL CAA UPSTREAM...BUT INSOLATIONAL
HEATING SHOULD OFFSET FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WILL SEE TEMPS BRIEFLY
REACH 35-40F RANGE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL. THE WSWLY FLOW WILL HAVE AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
LEAVE A CHANCE OF A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
P-GRADIENT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP
WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING 
AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND RETURN OF
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY...AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND GENERALLY 20-25F FOR FRIDAY. STALLED FRONTAL 
ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SEE A
S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HRS. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE FRIDAY
AFTN. ALL IN ALL, A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL 
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN 
TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW 
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE 
FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS 
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME 
TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS 
TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE 
REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY 
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S. 

THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN 
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY MID-MORNING, ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
KSLK WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LAYER
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD, SO EXPECT KRUT TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 19Z. REST OF THE FORECAST EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AT ALL BUT KMSS AND KSLK WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY TO LESS THAN 10
KTS.

AN INCREASE OF VFR LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WEAKENING UPP
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



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