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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 240748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO YOUR FRIDAY. OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT
MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL
LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER 
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A 
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE 
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE 
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL 
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS 
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF 
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS. 
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE 
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL 
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF 
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS 
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL 
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS 
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN 
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW 
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY 
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE 
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF 
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT 
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD 
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND  
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY 
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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