Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 192026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD 
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING 
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY 
CLOUDY DUE TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL 
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM 
ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. 
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK
AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND OVERALL AFFECTS ON RADIATIVE COOLING/TEMPERATURES.
NWLY FLOW STEADILY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH PRE-EXISTING INVERSION 950-900MB
LAYER...FROUDE NUMBERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS ARE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING A BLOCKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. SUCH A REGIME SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN STRATUS ON UPWIND
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE GREENS. HAVE TRENDED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING EAST OF THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD BIAS-CORRECTED NAM-MOS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS STRATUS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN MOST AREAS. THIS YIELDS A LOW OF
ABOUT 17F AT KBTV (VS. 5F ON THE GFS-MOS GUIDANCE). STILL A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH AREAWIDE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID TEENS.
WILL SEE LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO LOWS IN LOCATIONS
SEEING A BIT MORE CLEARING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW-N 5-10
MPH...THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING
WEATHER FEATURE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY
LIGHT FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS THE 950-925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAP A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM MORE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SATURATION BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHICH CAN SOMETIMES BE OVERDONE
IN THE NAM DURING THE COLD SEASON. A BIT OF A DIFFICULT CALL ON
SHALLOW STRATUS...SO HAVE INDICATED VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BASED ON LOW-LEVEL RH TRENDS BASED ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. IF THE
LOW- LEVEL RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE CORRECT...COULD SEE A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED (MOSTLY SUNNY VS. PARTIAL SUN
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPR 20S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (HIGHEST, SRN VT VALLEYS). AGAIN...IF MORE
NOCTURNAL CLEARING OCCURS THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED IN
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 319 PM EST FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF 
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION AS THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD GET RIVERS TO RISE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy