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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 010457
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH
PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE
A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS. 

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE
TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR
REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES



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