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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 302018
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
418 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 418 PM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MORE LOW CLOUD MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD
EASTERN VERMONT FROM SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME AS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 418 PM EDT TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AND LOCKED IN ON THE UPCOMING
PATTERN SHIFT.

DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS 
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKING 
NORTHWARD TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. ATTENDING 
SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY WITH 
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO RICH GULF OF 
MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FEEL THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 
RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER SLOW...OFFERING A GOOD 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 
LOW END WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE PRONE REGIONS OF 
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG 50-60KT SOUTHEASTERLY JET 
AT 850MB PRE-FRONT. DOESN'T LOOK AS STRONG AT 925MB RIGHT NOW...BUT 
THEN AGAIN WE'RE LOOKING AT THE COARSE 40KM RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS. 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND 
INTO THE TIME-SCALE OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTIONS MODELS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE 
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THOUGH IN REALITY THEY WON'T BE TOO FAR FROM 
WHAT WE SHOULD BE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. WE'VE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR SO 
LONG THOUGH THAT IT'LL FEEL QUITE CHILLY. HIGH TEMPS SUN/MON/TUE 
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 40S ON 
THE MTN PEAKS...AND LOWS WILL RUN GENERALLY IN THE 40S VALLEYS TO 
30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BEFORE 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT INCREASING POPS AREA-WIDE FOR 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION FORECAST WOES CONTINUE FOR THE 18Z 
SUITE WITH LITERALLY ZERO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAVING A CLUE AS TO 
WHAT THE CURRENT OR FORECAST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE. THAT SAID...HAVE 
OFFERED BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS WHICH 
I'M FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT...BEYOND THAT...VERY MUCH LESS SO. STILL 
DEALING WITH A SOUTHEAST STRATUS DECK FROM BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS 
SLOWLY LIFTING BUT HAS PROGRESSED WESTWARD OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS 
INTO THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MEANWHILE STRATUS LAYER AT MSS 
FROM FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH ON NORTHEAST FLOW IS ALSO SLOWLY LIFTING 
OUT...AND KMSS SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF VFR COMING UP HERE SOON WITHIN 
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
SHIFTS SOUTH THINK WE'LL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS FROM VFR TO MVFR
AREA-WIDE WHERE MVFR ISN'T ALREADY PRESENT...AND REMAIN THERE
OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AT EACH TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE N-NE FROM KBTV WESTWARD...AND
SE AT KMPV/RUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z THU...CEILINGS TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV WITH EAST FLOW.

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM
06-13Z EACH DAY.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







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