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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT MONDAY..CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY
MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND
AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE
AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR
MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS



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