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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 211050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END
OFF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 527 AM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ONE MORE DRY AND WARM
DAY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 527 AM EDT MONDAY...TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POPS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO LIKELY IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THE
EVENING...AND LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH TIMING OF FRONT
AND LOW IS SILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE
NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TEMPERATURES
ARE A LITTLE TRICKY FOR MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY DUE TO POSITION OF
THE FRONT. LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH
ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE 
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG 
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING 
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST 
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW 
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO 
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM 
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE'LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 01Z TONIGHT AT MSS/SLK AND 04Z AT PBG/BTV. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ONLY PUT VCSH IN FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH 10-20 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN/NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







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