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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 210000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM A LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
BEFORE THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 623 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DEPRESS SLOWLY SOUTH. IT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
NY...AND EXTENDS EAST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST INTO CENTRAL VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING HEADLINES THAT ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BAND OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY OF NEW YORK. WE'VE ALREADY SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AND SHOULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES BEFORE THE BAND MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS
SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY IS NO LONGER A THREAT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUING FOR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN'T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW BAND AT KSLK HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE DONE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THE BAND
HAS BROKEN UP ENOUGH THAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I DON'T
HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH EITHER KRUT OR KMPV AT
THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
SHOULD DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE KSLK/KMSS SITES AROUND 05-06Z WITH
THE REST DROPPING TO MVFR BY 12Z. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO
WEST SOUTH WEST BEFORE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO STILL BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT IN THE 7-13 KT
RANGE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING IN THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE 1 TO 3 WAVES AND A LIGHT TO MODEST
CHOP ACROSS THE BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN
SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF
MARINE...JMG



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