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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 201126
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO BRING SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH
PUTS THE REGION IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. GIVEN THIS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON IS
LOW...AND WOULD ALSO EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT IN BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ACROSS VERMONT
TONIGHT...SO HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD. THUS...HAVE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST POPS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO VERMONT ON THURSDAY.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS VERMONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC. THUS...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY MARKS THE START
OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A
BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH
THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN
VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS
WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND
WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR
CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD
BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN
12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S
WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND
MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY....LIFR IN FOG WL PREVAIL AT MPV UNTIL
13Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRNT. THESE CLOUDS WL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACRS NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES BY 21Z TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO VT
BY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY LLVLS...EXPECTING
SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO FALL AS VIRGA. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AT SLK BY THIS EVENING...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS
MORNING...TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY...WITH
EASTERLY FLW AT MSS. 

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY
AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD
INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








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