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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 050504
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
104 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE 
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND 
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS BASED ON
CRNT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FCST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT TUESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT RATHER NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN...AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DURING 
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES AS COOL 
POOL ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE 
LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY NOT BE A CONCERN TO US AND THAT IS A SOUTHERN 
STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE 
FRI/SAT WANTING TO MAKE A MOVE NNE TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT 
FOR NOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NOT TO THREATEN AREA. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL TROFINESS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC
FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND
WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO
CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...FRI AND SAT LOOK DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MAX T 
IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE FOG/MIST WITH IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV, SLK AND
MSS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BKN CLOUDINESS WITH
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM CHAMPLAIN INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST IN SHORT ORDER, BUT THERE'S SOME
QUESTION ON IF MID-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD CAN CLEAR OUT ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE MIST/FOG FORMATION. A POCKET OF CLEARING BACK INTO THE
OTTAWA VALLEY SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT MSS AND PERHAPS SLK. THOUGH
ITS CURRENTLY CLEAR AT MPV NOW, IT'S LESS CERTAIN THAT CLEARING
COULD HAPPEN ONCE CLOUD DECK MOVES IN. IN EACH CASE, OPTED FOR
TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH UNDER 5 KTS.

THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN, TIED PRIMARILY TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING PERIOD. HI-RES GUIDANCE POINTS SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT. ROUGHLY FOLLOWED THIS BY INDICATING
6SM SHRA FOR THIS TAF FORECAST. STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS (GUSTS UNDER 20 KTS) BECOME LIGHT WEST BY
EVENING. 

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV
AND SLK TERMINALS. 

12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SPOTTY DIURNAL-DRIVEN
SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...DAYTIME VFR WITH EVENING IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV
AND SLK TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO



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