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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 302042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY'S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST
RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATES
ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAY
SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT AGAIN
WON'T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE
PLACID NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE'RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE'LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN AND INTO CPV AND VT OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH. ANY SHOWER/STORM MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INDICATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 05Z AND MVFR AT KSLK
AFTER 08Z. EXPECT THREAT OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS SEEING BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8-14KTS IN THE CPV...AND VFR
UNDER 10KTS ELSEWHERE. LGT TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-16KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM







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