Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 240614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHRINKING...BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN VT...AND IN THE HIR TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
MORNING...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED
5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
GREEN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND
700FT ELEVATION...BUT WARM GROUND AND LIFT QPF WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
MIXING AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AT MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S IN WARMER VALLEYS. NRN NY WILL BE ON COOLER
SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA...MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CPV AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. EXPECT
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN VT BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH'S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS
WL LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE
NEK ON THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER
CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
FRIDAY AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT RUTLAND
AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE
FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP
HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR
STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR
SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN
LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN
RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY
ACRS THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD
VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
AND YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
AND MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy