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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 261805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1258 PM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHERN TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TRACK AS WE
ARE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LOW TEENS ALREADY SO MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SHOULD WORK OUT QUITE WELL TODAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS STILL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE FEW LIGHT ECHOS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHOWING UP TO THE SOUTH ON COMPOSITE RADAR WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FALLING AS PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY'S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL
SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE
SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY
7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...BKN/OVC HIGH LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COURSE OF TIME BETWEEN 12Z-00Z...BUT
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER WITH SNOW ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS. ARRIVAL OF
SNOW ESTIMATED AT 06Z KRUT, 08-10Z KMPV-KBTV-KPBG...AND GENERALLY
AFTER 12Z KSLK/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS
MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



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