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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 240007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
807 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT'S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). 

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE. 

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON'T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH 
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON 
HYDROLOGY...NASH 
MARINE...NASH



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