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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220551
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT WHERE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AND
SPREAD MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL 
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET 
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT 
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY 
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID 
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE
L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN
STRUCTURE WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN
OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE
MEANDERS OVER CAPE COD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE
PLACED FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO
+2C AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW
U50S ON SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR AT BTV WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH TENDENCY TOWARD MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRIZZLE AND
PATCHES OF RAIN WILL BECOME PREVAILING IFR BY AFTERNOON AT MOST
TAF SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO AVOID THE
RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS
WITH SOME G20 KT AT KMSS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
FROM A CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY GUST
TO 20 TO 25 KTS KBTV/KPBG/KMSS...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE 
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE 
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE 
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN 
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS 
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



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