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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 160025
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
825 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL SLOWLY END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON 
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY 
NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES 
MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 810 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF VERMONT
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ISSUING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR.
THIS IS RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WHICH HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
VERMONT...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN WESTERN/NORTHERN VERMONT. COLDER
AIR A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE EAST OF THE GREENS...WHERE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW WILL OCCUR 02-03Z. STILL LOOKING AT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THE WARMTH OF MONDAY INTO EARLY TODAY. DESPITE THE
COOLING...MANY RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH MANY RIVERS NOW IN
FLOOD. REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR
LOCAL AREA AND SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WELL QUITE THE WEATHER DAY AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CT RIVER BY 6 PM IF NOT SOONER...WITH ANAFRONTAL COLD RAIN/SNOW
LINGERING BY SOME 6-9 HOURS BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE
HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION QUITE WELL SHOWING COLDER AIR WORKING
IN ALOFT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND RAIN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH STREAMS/RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS TO RIVERS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA (SEE
HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...AS P-TYPE TRANSITIONS TO A
WET SNOW...SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NOTHING
TOO EARTH SHATTERING...BUT QUITE THE CHANGE AFTER YESTERDAY'S NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEY
FLOORS AND 1-3 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW POINT TOTALS NEAR
4/5 INCHES AT SUMMIT LEVEL. LOWS BY MORNING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S ACROSS NRN NY...AND LOWER TO MID 20S VT BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH 
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED 
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG






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