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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







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