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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



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