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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 300804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HAVE RAISED
MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AS SKIES HAVE
BRIEFLY CLEARED ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FORECASTED
LOW. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN'T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I'M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE 'DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE'LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY. 

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



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