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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 232011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED. 

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT'S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). 

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE. 

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON'T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4". 


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES. 

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH



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