Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171913
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE 
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY 
CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A 
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW 
TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE 
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO
+6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING ...WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY 
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 
0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE 
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS 
MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 
AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH 
DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS 
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY 
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING 
BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL 
LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST 
ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF 
THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL 
RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO 
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS 
WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL 
ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER 
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER 
UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.
 
ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE 
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 
NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR 
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND 
+6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT 
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING 
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS 
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY 
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND 
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER 
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.   

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO 
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR 
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY 
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE 
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH 
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS
BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON'T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID
PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY
SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD
HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT
THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY'LL HAVE LONGER
TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS
DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I'D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT
LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY,
CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS. 

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR 
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH









National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy