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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 131119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH
BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALSO POPS FOR TODAY.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS CATCHING ONTO THE IDEA A LITTLE BETTER OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING INTO THE OTTAWA RIVER VALLEY
GRAZING THE NORTHERN TIER BTV ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. HAD THIS IDEA
GOING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST BUT WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
FEEL A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT, ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP ABOUT 10%.
STILL NOT THINKING ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING THOUGH, SO NO BIG
DEAL IN THE END.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES RANGING THROUGH
THE 30S AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING HIGH. ALOFT DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
WITH SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA STREAMING INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL JUST GO TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BTV
CWA THROUGH THE DAY, BUT UPSTREAM RADAR AND SURFACE OBS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO DO SHOW SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW FALLING
WHICH COULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY, MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT HERE THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASE FOR A FOR WHILE THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL EXPECT
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTENSIFYING AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLOUD
COVER REMAINING ABUNDANT, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY
MILD FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 20S TO LOCALLY LOWER 30S IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

BY DAWN SATURDAY, WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET WITH A WEAK WARM NOSE FROM
925-850MB SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
AND/OR FZRA ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. I SAY IT WILL
BE BRIEF BECAUSE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY WINS
OUT AND THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS SUFFICIENTLY BY MID-DAY TO
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE AT THE SURFACE, WHILE IT
SHOULD REMAIN WET SNOW AT THE SUMMITS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A
STRONG MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD SHUT
OFF PRECIP FOR A FEW HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. AT THAT TIME, PRECIP WILL
FILL BACK INTO THE REGION AND MAKE A SLOW TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED BUT WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO DIAL THAT IN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW EXIT TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MORNING,
BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO BLEED INTO THE
NORTHEAST. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
THE EXITING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY SEASONAL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT FRIDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER THEN EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AND FLOW TURNING WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTER A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUITE NICELY ON MONDAY WITH MOST SPOTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR 
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG COLD 
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. GFS SHOWING IT'S TYPICAL FAST 
NORTHERN STREAM BIAS WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL LEAN TOWARD 
CONTINUITY AND THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION ACCORDINGLY. 
BEHIND THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES TREND QUITE CHILLY (BY MID-MARCH 
STANDARDS) BY LATER IN THE WEEK, THOUGH SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL 
LARGELY REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHSN/FLURRY 
ACTIVITY HERE AND THERE AS WEAK BUNDLES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED 
MOISTURE PIVOT THROUGH THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER 
ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THICKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL CIGS IN THE 080-200 AGL RANGE. ANY PCPN
WOULD COME IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND MAINLY
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AFFECTING THE KMSS ONLY. GIVEN DRY LOWER
LEVELS AND LATEST WRF MODEL OUTPUT HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE OMITTING MENTION OF PCPN AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
NORTHEAST AT KMSS TERMINAL. BY LATE IN THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE CIGS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE. MOST TERMINALS REMAIN DRY, BUT HAVE OFFERED
VCSH AT KMSS AND CIGS TO MVFR AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC VFR LOWERING TO AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW/SHSN.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SHSN WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



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