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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 202042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM RETURNING
INTO OUR AREA...BUT A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING IN CONTROL.
THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S
ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW
WARMING TREND ON MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TOWARD
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND
RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN.

BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO 
KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK 
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS 
UNDER THE INVERSION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING 
RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL 
CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM 
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT
JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE
PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME
TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS
MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO 
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FEET. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO 
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON 
SNOWMELT.  THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE 
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL 
STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW 
SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE 
MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR 
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED 
ALLOWING FOR  THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH 
WEST TO MOVE IN.  WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A 
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND 
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL 
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH 
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A SOLID CLOUD DECK FORMED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND HAS KEPT KPBG UNDER LOW OVERCAST MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND ON VIS SATELLITE IT APPEARS THAT THE
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLIDING NORTH. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SUBSIDENCE A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT. AS
THE STRATUS DECK FORMS THERE WILL BE SOME LIKE GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN NY SITES AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIKELY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/DEAL



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