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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A
SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. 

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







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