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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 060541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1238 AM EST FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT LOW
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST SECTIONS INCLUDING AROUND
-20F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND COLDER VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT AND
-3F TO -8F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR CONTS TO 
SHOW THE NORTHEAST CONUS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM 
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT 
PRECIP EVENTS. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AT 12Z...WILL 
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW 
DEVELOPING BY EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM FROM -20C TO -14C BY 
00Z SATURDAY...WITH FULL SUN WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S 
WARMER VALLEYS TO M/U TEENS IN THE MTNS. HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE 
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH 
PLENTY OF MARCH SUNSHINE. NEXT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY AND 
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR 
WESTERN CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER LIKE 
SYSTEMS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWS VALUES BTWN 0.20 AND 
0.25"...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL WILL 
RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL 
MENTION LIKELY POPS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF 
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPE
SHADOWING IN THE CPV. ALSO...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED CHANNELING OF
THE SFC WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...THINKING
EARLY EVENING LOWS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST
VALUES NEAR -10F WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH +10F IN THE
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE A SPOT 30F IN THE WARMER URBAN AREAS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. COOLER TEMPS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DEPARTING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW, FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER AND A ANOTHER TASTE OF SPRING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED MOVING 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE ZONAL AND FAST FLOW 
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIP THROUGH THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY 
A WEAK ONE SUNDAY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON MONDAY, BOTH LIKELY 
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE SNOW TOTALS 
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GET A 
NICE TASTE OF SPRING AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE 
RESULTING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES AT AND 
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 
40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WHILE I'VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD BE NOTED 
THAT WE'LL BE ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WITH 
ENERGY PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING, BUT WILL GO 
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY EXCEPTION
AT KSLK HAVING CHANCE FOR ICE CRYSTALS FORMING AND DETERIORATING
VSBYS TO MVFR. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FROM 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE,
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION KEEPS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID DAY. KMSS WILL
DEVELOP INCREASING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SW FLOW.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

O6Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY - 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM



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