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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. 

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE 'DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S. 

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND 'DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS 
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN 
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW 
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY 
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE 
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF 
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT 
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD 
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY 
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH



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