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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 210755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
GOING INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END
OFF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT MONDAY...ONLY MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST.

VARYING AMOUNT OF HI/MID CLDS ACRS FA BUT ITS A BRISK LLVL JET IN
S-N VLYS THAT IS CAUSING A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS WITH CHMPL VLY THE
MILDEST. THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN FCST...THUS NO CHGS
NEEDED.

324 PM DISCUSSION...A GREAT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GREAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH MORE OF A SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ ONTARIO AND WILL NOT AFFECT THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT WITH THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD TO MOVE THROUGH. WIND
REGIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL STAY SSW AROUND 5-15 MPH.
BIGGEST DROP IN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET/EARLY
EVENING. LARGE T/TD SPREAD OVER THE AREA ATTM WILL SHRINK AFTER
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN EASTERN VERMONT/
DACKS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE WILL BE THE RANGE OF LOWS
FOR THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST AND REMAINING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE REST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY MORNING. FROPA OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH A
TAPERING OF MOST PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER...MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY WILL HAVE AREA MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL CLOUDS REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
BLANKETING THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. WITH RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH SOME SLOW
CLEARING IN VALLEY LOCALES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WITH
FROPA...PUTTING FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ENTIRE AREA MONDAY
AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH EASTERN CWA SEEING SITUATION OF EARLY HIGHS
WITH FROPA OCCURRING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH STRONG SSW GRADIENT DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WILL HAVE AREA SEEING AT OR BELOW NOUNAL TEMPS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CAA ON NORTHERLY FETCH. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
FACTOR IN OVERNGT LOWS TUESDAY. OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
ON MONDAY WITH 50S IN N NY/60S IN VT FOR TUESDAY WITH DIFFERENCE
BEING FRONT PLACEMENT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
L40S...COLDEST IN HIR TRRN TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN SSW WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTEN AS FRONT APPROACHES. LOOKING FOR 5-15 MPH WITH
AREAS 10-20 MPH WITH FRONT. WITH FROPA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SFC LOW PASSES OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHIFTS TO
MORE NORTHERLY REMAINING IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE UNTIL UPPER
SUPPORT PASSES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

PRECIP...MAIN P-TYPE WITH FROPA WILL FALL AS RAINSHOWERS...WITH
SOME RW/SW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR BLEEDS INTO REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSSIBLE
IN THESE SPOTS. OVERALL QPF FOR THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 0.30"
TO 0.60".

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL START
RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND THEN TURN UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE 
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THOUGH SO STRONG 
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING 
OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR THE FIRST 
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
FROM RADIATING EFFICIENTLY...BUT WILL STILL FALL TO BELOW 
NORMAL LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO 
THE 20S AND 30S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS WARM 
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO
WE'LL BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD...IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT STICKS
AROUND...BUT MAINTAINED SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT PULLS AWAY. LOWS
FRI/SAT NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE CONTINUED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CEILINGS
REMAINING AT 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MAY ALSO SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 03Z MONDAY NIGHT AT MSS/SLK. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AT BTV/MPV AND
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT RUT. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LIKELY AT MSS WITH 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000
FEET. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH 10-20 KNOT
GUSTS...BEFORE DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND
NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/NEILES/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







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