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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. 

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. 

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF
SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT
SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS. 

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



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