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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 130733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING
NW WINDS AS A STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WINDS ALREADY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WWD AT 02Z...BUT LOCALLY GUSTING TO 23 KTS AT MPV. SHOULD
SEE THOSE NW WINDS IN CENTRAL/ERN VT DIMINISH NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH
WEAKENING P-GRADIENT AND FURTHER PBL STABILIZATION WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING. THE LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP STEADILY...AND THEN LEVEL OFF A BIT DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST PER
UPSTREAM IR IMAGERY. LOOKING AT EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM
5-12F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE READINGS LOCALLY AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO IN FAR NERN VT WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR SOME AREAS OF SLEET. MODELS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX
OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL COOLING ALOFT TO CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT FRIDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER THEN EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AND FLOW TURNING WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTER A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUITE NICELY ON MONDAY WITH MOST SPOTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR 
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG COLD 
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. GFS SHOWING IT'S TYPICAL FAST 
NORTHERN STREAM BIAS WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL LEAN TOWARD 
CONTINUITY AND THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION ACCORDINGLY. 
BEHIND THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES TREND QUITE CHILLY (BY MID-MARCH 
STANDARDS) BY LATER IN THE WEEK, THOUGH SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL 
LARGELY REMAIN DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHSN/FLURRY 
ACTIVITY HERE AND THERE AS WEAK BUNDLES OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED 
MOISTURE PIVOT THROUGH THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER 
ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO BKN/OVC
VFR CIGS GENERALLY FROM 080-150 AGL FROM 12Z ONWARD. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC VFR LOWERING TO AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SHSN WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



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