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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 021734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL 
BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 112 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH FLAT
SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND MID-UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE CRESTING OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS VT...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST AND PREVAILING 850-700MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAVE ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO HOLD ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...PER VIS IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW
DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN AS PBL GRADUALLY MIXES
MORE DEEPLY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR BUT A BIT HAZY WITH JUST A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND/OR HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED
WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS IN
WRN ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH
ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY.

CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS 
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT 
CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 
INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL 
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS 
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS 
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD 
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN 
ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. 
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS 
AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL 
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS 
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE 
BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG 
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW 
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. 

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN 
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH 
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 
LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER
WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER
WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY,
BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL
JUST SHOW VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. LOWER
CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CANADA
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR (AND
POSSIBLY IFR AT SLK) STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING. FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASING CLOUDS BUT SOME STILL LIKELY TO
FORM AT MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK. WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY 5-7 KNOTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SE AT PBG WITH LAKE BREEZE)...BECOME
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT RUT WITH DRAINAGE
WIND)...BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA
THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



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