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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 051719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1219 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE
40S NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST THURSDAY...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWN AGAIN BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS OUR FA. CURRENT TEMP HERE AT
BTV IS ONLY 12F...WHICH IS 26 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 0F AND -10F. 

SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH NASHVILLE VT WEB CAM SHOWING A BRIEF
SNOW SQUALL WITH VIS BELOW 1/2SM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO
JAY PEAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES ASSOCIATED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP NEAR
-22C BY 18Z THIS AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS TO NEAR 10F SLK TO 15F MSS TO UPPER TEENS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND LOWER TO MID 20S LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE COLD AIR WILL
TAKE THE LONGEST TO ARRIVE. HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES TO MATCH THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW-LEVEL CAA ONGOING FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE EARLIER TONIGHT. PER EARLY AM IR
IMAGERY...STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
FILTERED SUN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. AFTER OUR
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS YESTERDAY (HIGH OF 40F AT
BTV)...NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S (15-20DEG
BELOW AVG). BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
ZERO...AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW EARLY
MORNING FLURRIES. NW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING
TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
DEEP-LAYER RH DECREASES AND MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. WINDS
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO 5 MPH OR LESS...WITH LOCAL KATABATIC FLOWS
LATE. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO
-10F...BUT COULD SEE SOME -10 TO -20F READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF FAR NERN VT. 

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SETTING UP A PLEASANT THOUGH
CONTINUED COLD DAY FRIDAY. SOME MODEST MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT S-SW DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY IN THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ANTICIPATE SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH WITH VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW MID-LATE AFTN. TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES...WITH FRIDAY/S HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. 

NOT AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
ALSO...LOOKING AT P-GRADIENT SUPPORTING S-SW WINDS 5-10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK. 

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION BRINGS OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.15-0.25" PER 00Z GFS. SNOW
AMTS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 1"...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL
CONCERNS. HIGHS GENERALLY 25-30F RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 259 AM EST THURSDAY...LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 
RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW AND GREATER MODEL DIFFERENCES AS 
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS DO AGREE 
ON WARMING TREND IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
COUNTRY. 

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. RIDGING BUILDING IN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 
OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER, AS 
LOW PRESSURE STAYS FAR TO OUR NORTH, TRACKING OVER JAMES BAY.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT 
WEEK. OVERNIGHT/MORNING MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS, WARMING 
INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-M30S SUNDAY 
WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES 
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT KSLK/KMSS/KPBG
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW. WINDS OF 8-15KTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT
KMPV. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING, FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 5KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



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