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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT 
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOTS O' CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
THE COMMON FEATURES FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME.
ALL THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE SLOW MOVING, BUT THUS FAR NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS -- PERHAPS SOME SPOT AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2". NOT A LOT
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS, SO AS WE REACH CLOSER TO
SUNSET, EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LATER TONIGHT, A DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS (EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF
THE BORDER) WILL START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT. AT
THAT TIME WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS, I WOULD EXPECT FOG TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP. THUS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS OF VERMONT. 

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WON'T FALL TOO MUCH OR TOO
QUICKLY. THINK 50S ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT
WEEKEND, WITH JUST ONE SMALL BUG-A-BOO. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
SLOW TO EVOLVE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, ANTICIPATE
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SHOULD RESULT
IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE PAINTED IN LOW RAINFALL
CHANCES, GENERALLY 15-25% FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THAT AREA.
CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO BE A WASHOUT. 

OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 11-12C, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL SET UP A CLEAR/CALM NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS, THIS WILL SET UP A
PERFECT SITUATION FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP -- ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH
COLDER HOLLOWS INTO THE 40S.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR WEATHER DAY (WELL, FOR SUMMER
FANS). HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. THUS LOTS OF 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
BE THE COMMON RESULT. 

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/CALM
CONDITIONS, SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BACK INTO THE 50S (40S IN THE COLDEST
SPOTS).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. TREATED SHOWERS WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE TAFS AS THEY MOVE
INTO AERODROME. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RAISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT SOME SOME LOWERING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DURING OVERNIGHT OURS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST. FIRST IN VT THEN MOVE INTO NY BY DAYBREAK.
TIMING IS KEY HERE...AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIFR FOG FORMATION AT KMPV. ALSO INCREASE FOG PRODUCTION
AT KSLK...DRYING WILL BE CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT THAT PLACE IS PRONE
TO FOG IN AND BROUGHT LIFR TO KSLK TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE TREND ON
SATURDAY IS TOWARD BREAKING OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND P6SM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT
AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AND VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...HANSON






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