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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 210536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT. 
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY. 
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY 
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850 
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE 
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE 
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW 
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS 
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT 
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT. 

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I 
HAVEN'T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY 
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEA OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES VERY LITTLE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE DRY WEATHER.
AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
READINGS WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR. 

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI






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