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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 261747
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1247 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE'RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER



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