Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 301441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy