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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220137 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT...A CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500 HPA CONTINUES TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL LOW NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. AS MORE SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM. THE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. KCCX RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING IN A
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST MOTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY AID IN LOCALLY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF NEAR THE
DELMARVA REGION BY DAYBREAK. A CONVEYOR BELT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z/WED. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL 
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET 
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT 
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY 
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID 
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE 
REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OCCLUDED 
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THU IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE L50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN STRUCTURE 
WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN OVER THE 
REGION.  THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE MEANDERS 
OVER CAPE COD.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED
FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON
SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...AND ARE RATHER SHORT IN DURATION. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTH...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER SPORADIC AND LIGHT...WILL HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL WILL JUST A VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR LOW
STRATUS TO OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS OF
KMPV/KSLK. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THESE SITES DUE TO LOW STRATUS...AND SOME MIST AS WELL. SOME IFR
STRATUS IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KPBG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW. WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT BACK TO LOW END MVFR
AT KPBG. ELSEWHERE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR FOR
BTV/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN ANY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ALL SITES TO SEE MAINLY MVFR/VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THE
AFTN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FLYING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LOW
END MVFR/IFR FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO AVOID THE RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AROUND KBTV/KPBG...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.


OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE 
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE 
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE 
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN 
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS 
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON/WASULA



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