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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER









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