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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 130509
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING A MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT THURSDAY...A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH DIMINISHING
NW WINDS AS A STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WINDS ALREADY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WWD AT 02Z...BUT LOCALLY GUSTING TO 23 KTS AT MPV. SHOULD
SEE THOSE NW WINDS IN CENTRAL/ERN VT DIMINISH NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH
WEAKENING P-GRADIENT AND FURTHER PBL STABILIZATION WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING. THE LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP STEADILY...AND THEN LEVEL OFF A BIT DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST PER
UPSTREAM IR IMAGERY. LOOKING AT EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM
5-12F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE READINGS LOCALLY AT TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO IN FAR NERN VT WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR SOME AREAS OF SLEET. MODELS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX
OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL COOLING ALOFT TO CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT THURSDAY...STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANGEABLE
WEATHER WEEK COMING UP, BUT ISN'T THAT WHAT MARCH IS ALL ABOUT?
MODEL TRENDS STILL INDICATING A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MID/LATE WEEK. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS,
SO STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR THE MOST PART. DAILY
DETAILS ARE BELOW, FOR THOSE THAT ARE INTERESTED...

SUNDAY: UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH
DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TO MIX IN. COULD SEE 1/2" TO 1" ACCUMULATION IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, TO SEVERAL INCHES ABOVE 2500FT. SHOULDN'T BE
A BIG DEAL, AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN, EVEN THROUGH CLOUDS, I
DON'T EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE ALL THAT BAD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 20S UP ON HIGH.
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY END BY EARLY EVENING. 

MONDAY: SHORT LIVED RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. 925MB
TEMPERATURES AREN'T ALL THAT COLD -- (-3 TO -6C) AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LOTS OF SUN AS WELL.

MONDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE SPREADS IN, BUT SO DOES
WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO A 35-50KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET.
EXPECT LOWS TO HAPPEN EARLY ON, WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT. KEPT WITH JUST A RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
BASED ON TEMPERATURE AT THIS POINT, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD
BE A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION. A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT
THOSE DETAILS.

TUESDAY: STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING.
TRICKY WITH RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES, AS IT'S ALL IN THE
TIMING. NOTED THAT GFS MEX GUIDANCE GIVES BTV A HIGH OF 44F, BUT
JUST CAN'T SEE THAT GIVEN THE CRASHING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. WENT MORE FOR A HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S, AND THAT COULD VERY
WELL BE IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON, 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE -6 TO -9C RANGE, WHICH ONLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 30S. WELL
MIXED LOW LEVELS AS WELL, SO WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY BREEZY AS WE TAP
INTO THE WINDS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. NOTED THE SNOW SQUALL INDEX IS
FAIRLY ROBUST, AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY. AS SUCH, KEPT WITH CHANCE LEVEL POPS. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: GUIDANCE INDICATING A LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW TAPPING IN SOME COLDER AIR. MAY NOT BREAK FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY (925MB TEMPERATURES -12 TO -16C, AND A GOOD RULE OF
THUMB IS TO ADD +10C TO GET THE SURFACE MAX TEMPERATURE), AND
THURSDAY WE'LL HAVE A SLIGHT MODERATION (925MB TEMPERATURES OF -6
TO -12C), BUT STILL WIDESPREAD 30S WHICH IS STILL A GOOD 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. KEPT IN MENTION OF LOW POPS (15-30%) MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, AND WITH THE SUN HEATING THE SURFACE AND THE COLD AIR
ALOFT, WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO
FORM WHICH WOULD DROP SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO BKN/OVC
VFR CIGS GENERALLY FROM 080-150 AGL FROM 12Z ONWARD. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC VFR LOWERING TO AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SHSN WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...JMG



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