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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011258
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL 
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 854 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOMEWHAT SLOWER DISSIPATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. INCREASED HEATING/PBL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. STILL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES 83-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
TODAY. FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. RISING 700-500MB
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 18C THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...OR ABOUT 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 1ST OF SEPTEMBER. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV
TODAY IS 76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS 
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN ADVANCE OF 
THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A 
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH 
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING 
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS COOL 
A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 
80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE'LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DISSIPATING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z, AND AGAIN AT KSLK/KMPV
TONIGHT AFTER 07Z. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WE'LL JUST SEE A FEW
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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