Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1240 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE ABOVE PREVIOUS
MAX TEMP SO SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT THERE, BUT AFTERNOON POPS AND
WX LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...TEMPORARILY DISSIPATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR WHILE CONTINUING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON SURFACE OBS PTYPE HAS BEEN
MAINLY RAIN WITH SOME A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...BUT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE PRIMARY LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL ALOFT TO
SUPPORT A PTYPE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE EVENING RUSH. DON'T EXPECT IT TO BE A BIG ISSUE THOUGH
AS ROADS ARE CURRENTLY JUST WET AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS
NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV
AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy