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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 281105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE'S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I'VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN 'DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON'T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN 'DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE 
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS 
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH 
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS. 
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND 
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS 
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN 
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70 
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS 
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. 
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO 
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW 
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST 
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO 
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO 
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF 
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND 
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS - 
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE 
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS 
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS 
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S 
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS 
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER 
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER 
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE 
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A 
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO 
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY 
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS 
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND 
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH 
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO 
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN 
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY 
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON











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