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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 042355
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER
THE WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM EACH WILL BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SKY COVER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE TOUGHEST
ASPECT OF TONIGHT'S FORECAST. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, CLEARING THE NORTH COUNTRY WAY TOO
QUICK THAN WHAT'S HAPPENING IN REALITY. FEEL THAT WITH CONTINUED
WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO STREAM IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING UNTIL LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST/DRIER
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. I'VE OFFERED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT RAP AND 12Z NAM RH.
 
MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE FRONT'S WAKE WILL ALLOW 
FOR 925 MB TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. LOW 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE MAV/MET 
MOS GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. 
VALUES RUN FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER NORTHEAST 
KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AREAS, WITH MID-TEENS FOR THE CHAMPLAIN 
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANY MELTED SNOW OR SLUSH DURING THE 
DAY STANDS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO SLIPPERY 
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ALL-IN-ALL, IT'S A FAIRLY QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH A RETURN TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

FOR THURSDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY 
WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING INTO 
THE AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY TEND TO BE GREATEST IN 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AS MID- TO HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER A MORE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE 
SOUTH. GREATER CLEARING EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT 
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S. 

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR, CALM (OR VERY LIGHT WINDS), AND COLD. 
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH 925 MB 
TEMPS OF -17 TO -19C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS AREAWIDE, WITH 
THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM (NEAR 20 BELOW). 

FOR FRIDAY: AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT 
AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-
TYPE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN 
ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH HIGHS WILL TOP OUT 
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, IT PROBABLY WON'T FEEL THAT WAY GIVEN 
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLIPPER SYSTEM 
APPROACHES FROM ONTARIO. THERE'S SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN 
THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE 12Z/04TH ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN ALSO LEND SUPPORT TO
THE FASTER GFS. FOLLOWING THAT NAM/SREF MEAN/GFS MAJORITY, I'VE
OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE SOURCES ARE LIMITED TO THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS IN THE TEENS
LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF TOWARD
MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL TREND DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL
AND A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. MOST NOTABLE
SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL THOUGH, LOOKS TO BE A
LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH TEMP PROFILES SUPPORTING SNOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL SO NOT EXPECTING
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UNDER PARTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S MONDAY, AND UP INTO
THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS
AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE IN SLK AND MPV WERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR A SMALL WINDOW
BETWEEN 08-14Z. AFTER 14Z...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT LEAVING ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
08-14 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOTH SLK AND MSS WILL LIKELY
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF



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