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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE 
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE 
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES WILL END BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT AS PARTIAL CLEARING
OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
POPS NIL AFTER 23Z WITH LOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 
40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT/S
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ANTICIPATE SOME DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG AFTER 04Z
IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VERMONT...AND WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. W-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WILL GENERALLY BECOME VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS BY LATE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY. FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY SW-W AT 5-8 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE
WILL BE WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE LOW ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASING RH ACROSS NRN SECTIONS...ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS/FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18-20Z THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND
BTV-4KM WRF SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH 06-15Z THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NRN SECTIONS. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY PBL CONDITIONS...BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

LOOK FOR A NWLY WIND SHIFT AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT LATE 
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS REINFORCING SURGE 
OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPR 30S 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. LOWS WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (WARMEST IN THE 
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY) WITH HIGHS THURSDAY OF 55-60F FOR NORTHERN 
AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT
WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY 
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP 
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT 
WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT 
FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING 
INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A 
FREEZE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 33-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 
GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN 
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL...AND THE 
FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF 
CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME 
LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR 
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL 
INVERSION. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE
WEEKEND WHEN A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PRODUCING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA COMES OUT OF A COLD NIGHT BUT TEMPS TO
RECOVER UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST...IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA IN THE
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW
RH...1000-500MB RH LESS THAN 40%...WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS. EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS BUT 850 MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND WEAK
WARM FRONT SETS UP ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND 70S SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
SATURDAY AND CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY NEARER THE WARM FRONT...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW SPINS
UP AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. THE
NORTHEAST IS CUT OFF FROM BETTER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH...SO ONLY
MOISTURE SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH IS WHAT IT BRINGS ALONG WITH IT
ACROSS THE CONTINENT. EXPECT SIMILAR RAINFALL AS WITH LAST NIGHTS
RAINFALL...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES...COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A LOW ALOFT WITH LOW THICKNESS AND
COOL 850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE 12-18Z
TIMEFRAME TODAY AS CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED FROM
WEST TO EAST. THINGS SETTLING DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. NY
TAF SITES SCATTERED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND WINDSHIFT...AND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH VERMONT THROUGH 20Z
WITH SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AND WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING.
KEPT WINDS AT KBTV 240 DEG...AS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CHANNELING
PERSISTS. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR
THEN LIFR FOG AND CIGS TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...ESPECIALLY WITH
RECENT RAINFALL. CONDITION TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13UTC.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN EARLY
MORNING FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON






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