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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 270815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY...PROVIDING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...BASE OF 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, PRODUCING PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
AFTER 18Z, MODELS SHOW THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
NH AND ME. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WHILE AT THE SURFACE, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL DECREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY WITH GENERAL
DRYING TREND WITH PWATS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH. CLOUDY
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND INTO THE EVENING
VALLEYS WILL CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM MID 60S TO MID 70S AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE BEHIND TODAYS MAIN TROUGHINESS MAY KEEP
CLOUDS LINGERING TONIGHT, BUT LOOKS TO EXIT SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAWN.
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW 925MB TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE
OPTED FOR GENERALLY DRY SCENARIO AS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC MAY DELAY PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. SO EXPECT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
THE GFS LEANING TOWARDS SLIGHTLY MORE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE REGION THAN THE ECMWF. AFTER THAT BOTH MODELS LOOK FOR A
RETURN TO SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL POPS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR NEXT WEEK.

AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS ON POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND KEEPS THINGS DRY FROM THAT
POINT ONWARD. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY WHILE SLOWING AND
DEVELOPING THAT SHORTWAVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE OPENING IT BACK UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE SUPERBLEND AGREES WITH THE GFS TIME LINE SO HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE TO STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND WITH POPS STAYING
DRY OVERALL FOR THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 NOT BEING OUT OF
REACH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK TODAY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN
SCATTERED NATURE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR. IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF



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