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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250612
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A
DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW
TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1224 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST TRACKING ALONG WELL WITH
SHOWERS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN VERMONT AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUING
IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUSTANINED
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN VERMONT, SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND
CURRENT POP TRENDS DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S AND NOT MUCH COOLING WITH THE
WARM SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS
CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

A NOR'EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN
THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND
OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT
MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST
SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT
THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW
RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND
APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING
MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS AT KMSS WITH GUSTS 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. REST OF SITES
WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET
ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/SLW
MARINE...DEAL



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