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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241705
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 102 PM EDT THURSDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWERING RH VALUES. RED FLAG WARNING STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH LATEST 1PM OBS AT VSF SHOWING RH DOWN TO 32% AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING RH VALUES TO DROP BTWN
20 AND 30% THIS AFTN IN THE WARNING AREA. VIS SATL STILL SHOWING
CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK.
THESE SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
DEVELOPS FROM LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WL WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 4
DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S MTNS TO M50S WARMER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 1130Z THURSDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS BELOW 1500 FEET AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY. 

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 15% AND 25% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM








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