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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 291148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW 
ENGLAND WILL BRING PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH 
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN 
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTH 
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE...
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NRN VT AND IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE THRU 15-16Z (PER RAP LOW-LEVEL RH
TRENDS) OWING TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND PBL MIXING...AND PATCHY
EARLY AM FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z WITH NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
VICINITY OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW -
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LEANED TOWARD WARMER NAM-
MOS GUIDANCE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 72-76F RANGE. ALL IN ALL A
VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNDER RESPLENDENT BLUE
SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL DRIFTING 
EWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOULD
SEE SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CHANNELING EFFECTS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN DUE TO WARM LAKE WATERS...WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF 15-25 KT SOUTH WINDS BY 09Z OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING RH IN 300-500MB LAYER...SO
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOG WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT WHERE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE PBL
WILL BE LIGHTEST AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 40S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL 
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BETWEEN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND A WEAK SFC LOW AND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WAA
IS PROGGED BY 00Z NAM/GFS...WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +15 TO
+16C BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. ISSUE ON TEMPERATURE
WILL BE CLOUDS...AS HIGH 500-300MB RH SUGGESTS FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH CIRRUS/ALTOSTRATUS LAYER. ADJUSTED A BIT ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-83F FOR MOST VALLEY
SECTIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IT COULD BE UNDER FULL SUN. S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AREAWIDE...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB...LIKELY REACHING THE UPR
50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING 
ACROSS NRN NY...AND PERHAPS FAR NRN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. 
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SAT NIGHT...COMBINED WITH 
WARMER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING 
FROM THE UPR 50S ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...TO 65-68F IN THE 
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. 

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES MID-LEVEL UVV WHILE WEAK 
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING (SBCAPE 
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG). DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY 
IMPRESSIVE...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS. COMBINED 
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...NOT 
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD 
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE NOT A "WASHOUT"...THESE SHOWERS 
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2.00" IN BOTH THE NAM 
AND GFS. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY DOWNPOUR MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEFINITELY WOULD BE
GOOD TO HAVE AN INDOOR BACKUP PLAN FOR ANY PLANNED OUTINGS ON
SUNDAY GIVING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT FRIDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS GOING
FORECAST OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL GOOD. NOT
MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND THUS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS LOOKING
AT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
16Z BEFORE ALL SITES BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
EXIST AT KSLK THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR LIKE ALL OTHER SITES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 5 AM...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WAVES OVER THE BROAD PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL
BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...TEAM BTV






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