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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 171907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
307 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








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