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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 300834
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
434 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY FALL 
WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A 
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM...COOLER...CLOUDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY 
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...MAINLY A WIND DIRECTION/CLOUD FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AS BACKDOOR SFC FRONT HAS SNAKED ITS WAY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHILE
FURTHER EAST HAS PUSHED WEST FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL PLAIN
INTO ERN PORTIONS OF VT. FRONTAL ZONE IS SHALLOW (UP TO ABOUT 2
KFT) AND TAKING ON CLASSIC DENSITY CURRENT FLOW BEHAVIOR...SO
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF GREENS LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY
THIS MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE. FOR TODAY WILL MAINTAIN PRIOR IDEA OF
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PARTIAL SUN MOST
PREVALENT IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHEST
CLOUD COVER IN VALLEYS OF ERN VT WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY MARITIME
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. ANY PATCHY -DZ IN ERN VT THIS MORNING SHOULD
END BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS PBL WARMS/DRIES SLIGHTLY. WINDS LIGHT
AND LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY...BUT QUITE VARIABLE AS EVIDENT FROM
CURRENT (07Z) SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY AT
KMSS...NORTHERLY AT KPBG/KBTV...SOUTH AT KMPV...SOUTHEAST AT KRUT
AND CALM AT KSLK...YOU GET THE PICTURE. ONLY OTHER SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS CLOSED H5 LOW DROPS ESE FROM THE
LOWER LAKES INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION BY EVENING. MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SMALL AREA WILL LIE IN A NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS (200-400 J/KG) COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ARM EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER. QPF WILL
BE SCT AND LIGHT AT BEST HOWEVER. STAYED AWAY FROM BIAS-CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE DATA GIVEN OUR SLIGHT REGIME CHANGE OFFERING VALUES
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S TO LOCALLY AROUND 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
SWRN ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...FROM TONIGHT ONWARD INTO THURSDAY
PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE/DRY FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NRN NY/VT WEATHER AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED H5 LOW SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND OFF THE
SOUTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST. CLOUDS AGAIN QUITE VARIABLE WITH
PARTIAL SUN EXPECTED HERE AND THERE...MOST PREVALENT CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST AND LESS SO EASTERN COUNTIES WITH EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER
EASTERLY MARITIME PUSH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH DAILY HIGHS WED/THU
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S (COOLEST ERN VT) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 434 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AWAITING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS AND THE INTERNATIONAL MODELING
SUITE...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING REMAIN APPARENT. THAT
BEING SAID...IT'S PRETTY CLEAR THAT A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM
DRY WEATHER/AMPLIFIED RIDGE PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING BASED ON
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTION OF SHARPLY NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) TELECONNECTION INTO EARLY OCTOBER.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. 
THE GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF IN PUSHING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN IS...I'M MORE APT TO BELIEVE THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING
THOUGH. THEREFORE...WHILE I STILL THINK LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED
I'VE SLOWED THE TIMING BACK UNTIL SATURDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN NY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR VT. GIVEN PROGGED SHARP 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS
AND SYNOPTIC/FRONTAL FORCING...A FINE LINE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO
THE FRONT WOULD BE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO. I'VE ACTUALLY SHOWN RAIN
AS OPPOSED TO RAIN SHOWERS AS POPS TREND TO LIKELY TO BETTER SHOW
THAT SCENARIO. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SENDS 925 MB TEMPS
TO AROUND +3 TO +5C BY SUNDAY AND MOSTLY STAY AROUND THAT RANGE
INTO MONDAY. ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SUNDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE-
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BUT WITH SLIGHT MODERATION TO TEMPS LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES INITIALLY BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE 
TRENDING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IT REALLY IS A MISMASH OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM SCT/BKN VFR AT PBG/BTV...MVFR
DUE TO LOW STRATUS AT MPV AND RUT...IFR STRATUS AT MSS AND
IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AT SLK. BACKDOOR MARITIME FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
STRATUS LAYER HAS MADE IT TO THE GREENS. WITH 925 MB FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY PER CXX VAD...BELIEVE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OF FAIRLY SHORT DURATION AT BOTH MPV AND RUT WITH GRADUAL TREND
TOWARD BKN/OVC VFR. AT MSS...LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT EXTENDS
INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A PREVAILING IFR STRATUS DECK
DRAINING DOWN THE VALLEY ON NE FLOW PER FOG PRODUCT. CONDITIONS
FAVOR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK (ALREADY AT 4SM BR AS OF 06Z
METAR). WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT EACH TAF...SOUTHEAST AT
MPV AND RUT (WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT RUT)...NORTHEAST 8-10 KTS AT
MSS...NORTH UNDER 5 KTS AT BTV AND CALM AT SLK.

FOR TUESDAY: EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY BLEED
SOUTHEASTWARD. DAYTIME INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AT MSS. BASED ON UPSTREAM POST-FRONTAL OBS...BELIEVE CEILINGS
COULD LOWER DOWN TO IFR ONCE AGAIN AT MSS AND PERHAPS SLK AS WELL
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06-15Z WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND MVFR/VFR AT KBTV AND ELSEWHERE.

15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 06-13Z EACH DAY.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO









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