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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 200847
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
447 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE REGION WITH A WARM DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM ALONG WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAXING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOUDS AFFECT OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S...THOUGH WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY. WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE OUR
AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER
WHICH IS THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOME
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE
IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TREND. ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE
FEATURED IN BETWEEN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE
FEATURES AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS
LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN...BUT AS NOTED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH LOOKS
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL-
PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT
GETS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE TAIL-
END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS
COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT
WE'LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE'LL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. THE LOW WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
CEILINGS ALL 12K FEET OR ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







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