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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 012321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE 
AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE 
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF 
WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND DRY 
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 717 PM EDT MONDAY...A COUPLE VERY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON
CRNT OBS...OTHERWISE FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE POOLING IN THE SLV...WITH SFC DWPTS AT MSS OF 70F AND
72F AT OGS...SO HAVE MENTION LOWS AROUND 70F ACRS THE SLV.
ALSO...EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DWPTS ACRS THE IMMEDIATE CPV
THIS EVENING WITH READING IN THE M/U60S...RESULTING IN LOWS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE UHI AREAS. BOTTOM LINE ANOTHER
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG EXPECT AFT 06Z.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST UNDER LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AS DYNAMICAL FORCING AND GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM AN ADVANCING H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK
COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER. PATCHY FOG
ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED LOCALES...ESPECIALLY EASTERN VT
WHERE MEAN LL FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER. LOW TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF
RELIABLE GUIDANCE...GENERALLY 60S...LOCALLY NEAR 70 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I'VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON 
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL 
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY 
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD 
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE 
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORAILY WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SFC 
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH 
ABV SEAONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S..

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR 
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH 
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY 
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LWRNC 
VLY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC FRNT SLIDES ACRS FA 
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SFC 
WAVE DEVELOPING ALG BOUNDARY THUS CHC LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT 
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED 
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER
06Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL END OF PERIOD IN NY
AND AFT 18Z MON IN VT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW








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