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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







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