Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1239 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1214 PM EST TUESDAY...FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN
WITH BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW LIFTING ACRS CENTRAL VT
ATTM...WITH VIS AT MPV DOWN TO 1/4SM IN HEAVY SNOW. THIS BAND WL
SLOWLY SHIFT TWD THE CHAMPLAIN THRU THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW EXPECT. CRNT RADAR SHOWS SNOW BREAKING UP
ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...BUT EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
THRU THE AFTN HOURS. HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STORM TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM DUSTING TO 3 INCHES CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL VT...AND 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS RUTLAND/ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. WL HAVE TO
WATCH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT HERE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV THRU THE
AFTN HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL LLVL
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW ONCE
THE MID/UPPER LVL BECOME SATURATED...THE SNOW MAY STICK AROUND
THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AS WE ARE SEEING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT ON NORTH
FLW. COLCHESTER REEF SUBSTAIN AT 31 KNOTS AND DIAMOND ISLAND WAS
35 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE MENTION LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR
THE LAKE AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THROUGH 03Z. JUST WANTED TO GET THAT
OUT THERE FIRST.

CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. BANDS OF SNOW ARE SLOWLY
PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS VERMONT. IN SPOTS, THE SNOW DOES
BRIEFLY RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM, BUT IN
GENERAL IT'S MORE LIKE 3/4SM TO 1 1/2SM.  

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE INITIAL BATCH OF SNOW IS DRYING UP AS IT
MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
IT MAKES IT TO SLK, THOUGH IT APPEARS MSS WILL STAY VFR. RADAR
ALSO SHOWING A "BREAK IN THE ACTION" DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VT/NH
BORDER. IT COULD BE THAT THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE SNOW WONT LAST
ALL THAT LONG (6 HOURS OR SO) IN ANY SPOT. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALL THE WAY TO 12Z. 

GAVE IT MY BEST SHOT. IN GENERAL GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BULK
OF THE MODERATE SNOW & LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LAST UP TO 20-23Z
OR SO, WITH DIMINSHING SNOW THROUGH 03Z (AND MVFR CONDITIONS).
AFTER THAT, VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE. MAY END UP NEEDING TO AMEND
FORECASTS IF THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORECASTS NEED SOME
FIXING.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 20-25KTS SHOULD BE COMMON. PERHAPS SOME LOWER
30KT GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE TAFS, MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.

FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD, LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy