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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 170244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SLEET MIXED IN. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET
ORGANIZED NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 PM TUESDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND
AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT
OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT
(ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM).
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL
COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW
1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE
FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO ALY
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI 
SHORT TERM...WFO ALY/MUCCILLI 
LONG TERM...WFO ALY
AVIATION...EVENSON



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