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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 302321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.
MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT
IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST GENERALLY HOLDING
UP WELL EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS NECESSARY WITH THIS UPDATE.

INFRARED SATELLITE REVEALS PERSISTENT STRATUS/STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS...THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN
COMBINATION OF BLOCKED/SUBCRITICAL FLOW EVIDENT IN PROGGED FROUDE
NUMBERS AMD WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES
IN MEAN 925-700 MB WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...OPTED TO
RAISE HOURLY TEMPS UP A BIT AND LOWS UP 2-5 DEGREES WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS ALSO LOOKED A BIT TOO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ADJUSTED THESE UPWARD BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL. EXPECTING
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD
SEE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM/'DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN
ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST
20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR
40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. 

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. 

QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON
EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE
12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...IN GENERAL, THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS
DON'T OFFER ANY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, THOUGH SUBTLE, THAT COULD EFFECT THE ACTUAL WEATHER
WE OBSERVE (AND THUS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE). WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL STORM TO MOVE BY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE REGION, BUT WE'LL NOTICE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER (COLD,
BREEZY, CHANCES FOR HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY). THE
PATTERN IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO BY TUESDAY WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THE WEATHER TURNING MILDER, THOUGH REMAINING UNSETTLED.
DON'T SEE A LOT OF SUNNY WEATHER IN OUR FUTURE. A FEW MORE DETAILS
FOLLOW...

SUNDAY: 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A SMIDGE WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AND
KEEP A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF. THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE STORM, AND DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR US. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, THE GFS DOES INDICATE ABOUT
0.05-0.10" MELTED EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT AND INTO THE 'DACKS. THE EURO IS DRY. THINK THE
OVERALL FORECAST IDEA WE'VE HAD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THERE TO
BE SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE 12Z GFS,
DID DECIDE TO INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE 'DACKS AS WELL.
NET RESULT, HAVE SOME 10-30% POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY,
HIGHEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO WRING OUT 1" OR SO
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT DURING THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS WE
ARE CONFIDENT OF IS A STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND (PERHAPS
30MPH+ AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT) AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT LEAST -5C, UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THINK EVEN FOR BTV, WE WILL FAIL TO HIT 40F. 

SUNDAY NIGHT: IF WE HAVEN'T CLEARED OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE
WILL BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE (DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS), TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL
PRETTY QUICK. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST SUB-30F TEMPERATURES FOR
BURLINGTON. LOWS INTO THE UPPER 10S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS, WITH
QUITE A FEW LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

MONDAY: LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. COULD BE A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE BUT
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY: WARM FRONT STARTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. SAW NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE CONSISTENT MODELS, SO
IDEA OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
WE'LL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (PUSHING 50F IN THE VALLEYS)

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD
TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, HOWEVER IT APPEARS A
FRONT WILL GET STRUNG OUT NEAR/ACROSS THE REGION AND BE A FOCUS
FOR ON-AND-OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIBBON OF
MOISTURE, BUT ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO KEEP WITH 50-60% CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS, IT WILL STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
NIGHT (50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AFTER 20Z WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NO OBSTRUCTION TO VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 
00Z SAT-18Z SUN -- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TURNING TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
18Z SUN-12Z TUES -- VFR. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTING OVER 20KTS
ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 12Z TUES ONWARD -- MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH



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