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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 281732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA. 
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO 
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW 
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST 
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO 
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO 
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF 
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND 
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS - 
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE 
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS 
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS 
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S 
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS 
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER 
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER 
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE 
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A 
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO 
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY 
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS 
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND 
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH 
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO 
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN 
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY 
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








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