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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON



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