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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 261935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL SEE CLOUDS ENCROACH UPTON THE REGION FROM THE NW AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. EARLY IN THE EVENING...PWATS WILL PEAK AROUND 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE SLV WITH SOME INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BTWN 00Z AND 06Z.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY AND ALSO A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SUSTAINED S/SW
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE FROM U50S-U60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DECREASE...RESULTING
IN ONLY A SLGT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN VT...WHERE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS DECREASING FROM
14-16C IN THE MORNING TO 10-14C DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER NRN NY TO THE L/M80S IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COOLING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SLGT CHC FOR FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LVL
WAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. NW FLOW SETS IN EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING A RETURN
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL. THURSDAY WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE M60S-L70S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S-
50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL
INDICATING A SIMILAR UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF
ANYTHING, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EACH OTHER
COMPARED TO THIS POINT 24 HOURS AGO. THIS LENDS TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. DAILY SPECIFICS...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, SO SUNNY AND DRY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES 8-10C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MID 70S. CHANGES BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
A RATHER POTENT TROUGH RAMPS UP. BASICALLY MEANS INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AT NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP THINGS WARMER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODEL BLEND OF LOWS IN THE 50S LOOKS GOOD TO ME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
PUSHING 1.75" OR A BIT HIGHER, SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
NO STRONG TRIGGERS ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WE WILL SEE SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. GFS AND EURO DO SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY, SO
KEEPING THE MENTION OF T-STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.  AS
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES, INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OR
JUST PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE THE SITUATION. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY: MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY, SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM. STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND AND HAVE
PAINTED IN 30-50% POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY: FINALLY WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OVER, LOOKS LIKE WEATHER
WILL BE STARTING TURN DRIER. NOT LOOKING AT ANY COLD AIRMASS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL -- IF NOT
A LITTLE BIT ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR ACROSS THE AREA. AND THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE CASE FOR NEARLY ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DESPITE A
WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY, THOUGH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND
MASSENA. CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT I ONLY MENTIONED VCSH.
GUIDANCE STILL WANTS TO HAVE SLK AND MPV GET FOGGED IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS. WITH WINDS GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD,
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE BEST SITUATION FOR FOG. DID MENTION 2SM IN
LIGHT FOG FOR MPV, BUT NOTHING AT SLK.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 
18Z WED-00Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







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