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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.
 
ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE 
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW 
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO 
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL 
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST 
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES 
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. 
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT 
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY 
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S 
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN 
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS 
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE 
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE'LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE'LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS. 

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR 
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







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