000
FXUS61 KBTV 240317
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY 
FLOW OF MARITIME ORIGIN...WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD 
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS A FEW 
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
REMAIN THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED. A TREND TOWARD INCLEMENT AND POSSIBLY WINTRY WEATHER WILL 
OCCUR BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE 
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MARITIME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWWD
THRU THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF ERN
VT. MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN VT NWD TO NEAR KRUT. CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z
GFS...HAVE INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NWD
ACROSS VT OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE SERN PORTION OF OUR ADIRONDACK
ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES AT 40-50 PERCENT AND ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT AT 
KBTV/K1V4. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OR THE
DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
IT ONLY TAKES A MINIMUM ICE ACCUMULATION TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -ZR IN THE GRIDS...BUT ONLY FOR
LIMITED PORTIONS OF NERN VT/ADIRONDACK VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE...CLOUD
COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND THAT SHOULD HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH NELY FLOW AND
SATURATED CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM EST MONDAY...SFC HIGH...ALBEIT IN WEAKER FORM...THEN 
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS... 
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. BEST CHC FOR SUN WOULD 
APPEAR TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD 
WHERE PROXIMITY TO DRIEST COLUMNAR MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. OTW 
MAINLY A DRY PERIOD UNTIL LATER WED/WED NIGHT WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC 
LIFT AFFECTS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR 
SPRINKLES. ALL AND ALL THE DECENT STRETCH OF WX LOOKS TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE IN OVERNIGHT LOW 
TEMPS...WHERE COVERAGE AND/OR DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL STRICTLY 
GOVERN RADIATIVE PROCESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...IMPORTANT STRETCH OF TIME WITH THE
LONG THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER
EVENTFUL. SO WILL DETAIL DAY BY DAY.

TURKEY DAY...MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT AND IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO FCST HAS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AND HAVE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE. DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH WARMER AIR UP TOWARD OUR REGION SO TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE CLOUDY. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCAL TRAVEL
ISSUES.

FRIDAY...GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS AND
MODELS ARE NOW PRETTY SIMILAR. THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY
HIGH. THAT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. STRONG DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RATHER QUICKLY...AND TREK
TOWARD CAPE COD. STRONG 850MB WINDS WILL TAP LOTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION IN PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LAST ALL DAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT...AND THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1"+ OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. NOT LOOKING AT FLOODING ISSUES...BUT CERTAINLY RISES ON
SMALL CREAKS MAY OCCUR. 

FRIDAY NITE/SATURDAY...TRICKY PART OF THE FCST. AS UPPER TROF CUTS
OFF...THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...LIKELY BELOW 980MB BY
EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COPIUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL
AROUND THE LOW...SO THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. NO STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH TO
PROVIDE ANY DRY/COOL AIR INTO THE SYSTEM...RATHER ITS FROM THE
DYNAMIC COOLING FROM STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS
SO WRAPPED UP...THAT IT APPEARS THE COLDER TEMPS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES BEGIN TO SUPPORT
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NITE. FREEZING LEVELS BY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2000-3000FT...SO ACCUMULATING
SNOWS PROBABLY DOWN TO ABOUT 1500FT TO START THE DAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON...FREEZING LEVELS DROP A LITTLE BIT MORE...SO EVEN AT
THE VALLEY FLOOR WE SHOULD RAIN/SNOW MIX. CERTAINLY ABOVE 1000FT
IT WILL BE ALL SNOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH A SUB 980MB LOW OFF TO OUR
EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA...FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT UPSLOPE
FLOW CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

LOTS OF THINGS COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT WITH MODELS
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. LOOKS TO BE AN VERY
ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOW EVENT. RAN A FEW SCENARIOS HERE TO SEE
WHAT WE MAY GET. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY SEE
BETWEEN 1/2" TO 2"...BUT YOU GET OVER 1000FT AND WE ARE TALKING 
SEVERAL INCHES. FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AMOUNTS OVER 10" BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVELERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK AND TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WX SHOULD BE QUIETING DOWN. PERHAPS
STILL SOME -SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUING NW
UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL. FOR THE MOST PART...TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FINE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE SOME TOUGH SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDS ON HOW THINGS PAN OUT ON SATURDAY.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BECOME
BIGGER. HINTS IN MODELS THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP
SOMEWHERE NEAR US. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME -SHRN/-SHSN. PLAYED IT
CONSERVATIVE AND FOLLOWED GMOS...SO SMALL CHC OF PRECIP AND TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR EXPECTED 
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ALL SITES BECOMING VFR/MVFR TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST 
CONTINUES TO STREAM ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS 
EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE COVERED MUCH OF THE 
AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT 
THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AND ALL SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS 
1500-3500 FT BY 02Z. ONLY EXCEPTION IS KMSS WHICH IS ALREADY SOCKED 
IN AT 1/4SM AND VV001 IN FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
STRAIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 3-5SM 
/2SM AT KMPV/ AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FOG. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE 
AFTER 14Z AS CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WHILE FOG DISSIPATES. MOST 
AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON THOUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE. WINDS 
WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 5 
KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE LATE 
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED 
RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH IFR BECOMING 
MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO 
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY IFR IN SNOW AT 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHILE VALLEYS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL 
IFR IN RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW
EVENT OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST
MEASURABLE SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10
LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH 
THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.

                 SEASON TOTAL
RANK   DATE      SNOWFALL (INCHES) 
1.   12/7/1937     45.1 
2.   12/5/1915     54.4 
3.   12/1/1948     40.7
4.   11/30/1918    69.6
     11/30/1953    83.6
     11/30/1960    51.6
7.   11/28/1913    56.5
8.   11/27/1941    57.7
9.   11/26/1982    80.5
10.  11/25/1957    94.9

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MB
CLIMATE...