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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 312044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES 
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO
-15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS
LIMITED IN VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD
COVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...TO +5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT
WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. 

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. 

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. 

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



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