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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF
CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING
AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON






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