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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 050748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS 
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER 
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK 
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT SATURDAY...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KICKOFF THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEAN 850-925MB TEMPS OF 13-19C RESPECTIVELY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF
80-85F THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. AS THIS TAKES PLACE THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TRAVERSE THE INTL BORDER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE HARD TO
BELIEVE WE'LL SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM THIS ENERGY,
BUT A FEW ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED VERY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. OTHERWISE, PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW TO NIL THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB AS A WARM AND
MORE HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPS BUMP UP A DEGREE OR 2 CELSIUS EACH DAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOCALLY
NEAR 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. LOWS FOLLOW
SUIT THOUGH BEGIN CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S, BUT BECOME MILDER/MUGGIER SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING THROUGH
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT SATURDAY...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NERN CONUS GRADUALLY WEAKENS DURING THE PERIOD...IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPR MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING MID TO LATE WEEK.
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL ALSO BRING 30% OR HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED TSTMS BEGINNING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BNDRY MAY
SET UP POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL DURING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1-2"
RAINFALL WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY. MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR
ATTM...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE
WILL SEE A GRADUAL COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE MID-UPR 80S...AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 60S
(CONTRIBUTED TO BY ANTICIPATED MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION). HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE UPR
70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...AND BACK INTO THE MID-UPR 70S FOR
FRIDAY WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...RATHER QUIET AVIATION WX CONDITIONS...MAINLY
SKC/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANTICIPATE LIFR FOG AT
MPV 0630Z THROUGH 1230Z...AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR BR/FOG
POSSIBLE AT SLK. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BUT LOCAL SE
WINDS POSSIBLE AT PBG WITH LATE MORNING/AFTN LAKE BREEZE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV
AFTER 0630Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
INTERVALS OF IFR FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z MONDAY. 

12Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT
OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



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