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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 020215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE 
AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE 
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF 
WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND DRY 
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACRS
THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY ON TUES.
ALSO...MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE DACKS...AS SLK HAS ALREADY
DROPPED TO 1 1/2SM IN BR/FOG. THINKING BEST CHC FOR FOG WL BE BTWN
NOW AND EARLY TUES MORNING...BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. CRNT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACRS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEAR KART...WITH GENERAL MOVEMENT TWD THE
SLV. THINKING THIS SHOWERS WL SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT WL MENTION
SCHC/CHC...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS TWD 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH
LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM APPROACHING S/W TROF. LAPS SHOWS VERY
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES <300 J/KG...SO DID NOT
MENTION THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IT MENTIONED TWD THE MORNING
HRS WHEN BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. REST OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 50S NEK/SLK TO M/U60S SLV/CPV WITH
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I'VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON 
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL 
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY 
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD 
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE 
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPERHY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORAILY WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SFC 
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH 
ABV SEAONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S..

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR 
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH 
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY 
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LWRNC 
VLY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC FRNT SLIDES ACRS FA 
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SFC 
WAVE DEVELOPING ALG BOUNDARY THUS CHC LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT 
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED 
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RETURN TO KMPV AND KSLK AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS WHICH
WILL PERSIT TILL ABOUT 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH
MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...RJS







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