Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 301113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

JUST SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING. VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION BUT STILL EXPECTING
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TODAY.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALL NIGHT AROUND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE WARM LAKE WATERS GENERATING INSTABILITY WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE
EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WESTWARD TODAY BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THEY MAY
CLIP NW VT THIS EVENING SO KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TODAY FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/LG CAPE TO NEAR 1000 IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY PER THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR AND WHAT TRANSPIRED YESTERDAY TO OUR WEST.

850 TEMPS AROUND 9C SO HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH
WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL
ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG
FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD
TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU.

TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT
ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING
AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY
IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING
US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C
SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ' WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG  
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE 
ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN 
THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE 
PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 
RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO
THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE
LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB 
TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS 
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK 
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES 
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF 
SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY 
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR 
THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER 
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS 
ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE 
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy