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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SWIRL CLEARLY VSBL IN THE RADAR MOSAIC OVER WRN PA MARKS THE CNTR
OF THE UPR LOW. NAM FCST A NEARLY DUE SOUTH MVMT OVRNGT BRING THE
CNTR OVER ERN VA BY 12Z WED. SFC LOW IS NOT YET WELL DVLPD...SO UPR
LOW DEEPENS SLOWLY. THIS IN TURN LIMITS THE ELY INFLOW. SO...WHILE
THERE/S PLENTY OF MOISTURE ARND...LIMTED INSTABILITY AND A MORE
SLY THAN ELY FLOW SHD LIMIT THE PCPN OVRNGT...AS IT HAS SO FAR
TODAY.

XPCT CONTD LGT SHWRS AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVRNGT...AND ONLY A
LIMITED DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BLOCKY PTRN CONTS WITH THE CLSD LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING AND DRFTG
NEWRD OFF THE ATLANTIC CST. WED ACTUALLY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS THE
DVLPG ELY FLOW HAS NOT YET PULLED THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BACK TO THE WEST AND INTO THE FCST AREA. AS THE LOW
CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTANT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING HIGHER
POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS
THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD. 

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML. 


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORENING TDA AS LOW PRES SLIDES SEWD ACRS THE
BGM FCST AREA. GNRLY VFR EARLY THIS MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA MAINLY
ACRS CNTRL NY. LOWER CIGS WILL DVLP THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES SLIDES
SEWD BUT TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS IS A DIFFICULT FCST. WE ARE
DELAYING THE ONSET OF WDSPRD MVFR AT ITH/ELM/SYR/ELM UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTN...ALTHO BRIEF MVFR IS PSBL THIS MRNG IN -SHRA. MVFR SHUD
GET INTO NE PA BY EVNG. WDSPRD MVFR/PATCHY IFR TNGT DUE TO CIGS/BR
AND SHRA. WINDS ON THE LGT AND VAR SIDE THIS MRNG...BECMG NRLY TO
NELY LATE TDA AND OVRNGT AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...






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