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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 241515
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FCST INCORPORATING
THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS...WITH PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO FIRE
WX ELEMENTS SUCH AS T/TD/WIND AND RH. THE MORNING INVERSION HAS
QUICKLY MIXED OUT WITH NNW WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15-30KTS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS /LOW RH AND GUSTY NW WINDS/ WILL
IMPACT THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF NY AND MOST
OF NORTHEAST PA...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
THIS EVENING. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH 850 TEMPS
RISING TO AROUND 0C. TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP LOW CENTER LOCATED SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WELL-MIXED BLYR
WILL SUPPORT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS INTO 25-30KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO 
MOVE NORTHEAST AND SFC RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. WAA ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO THE LOW 30S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG SFC LOW ON FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE
IF MODELS SLOW DOWN CLOUDS. DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTN AND MIGHT NOT
START ALONG I81 UNTIL SUNSET. STRONG STACKED LOW MOVES EAST INTO
OHIO DURING THE AFTN. THE BEST PRECIP WILL BE FRI NGT AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS ERN PA WITH AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS NY. PWATS RETURN
TO AROUND 1 INCH...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH.
DEEP LIFT BUT LL INSTABILITY NIL SO CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK WITH
NO TSTORMS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE LOW WILL WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS IN NY. 

SAT NGT SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE FAR NE.
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH CAA. RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE NEXT TO NOTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW.

315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY'S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG
PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE'LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI TODAY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. 

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF NY AND MOST OF NORTHEAST PA. FURTHER WEST
THE WINDS WILL BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. IN THE FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE LAST
5 DAYS. TODAY MIN RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. 10 HOUR FUELS
WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 8 AND 10
AM AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN. WINDS START TO DROP
ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENT SRN TIER MID AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 MPH AND DO NOT RETURN TO THE SAME
STRENGTH AS TODAY UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH FRIDAY AFTN
DOES FALL TO UNDER 30 PERCENT BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE
WEEKEND THREAT LOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-
     056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC/MS
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...



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