Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Binghamton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBGM 180134
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL BE WITH US THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING STORM
SYSTEM...COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. RADAR RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY BUT STILL PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES OR
A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT THIS POINT. WE ARE HAVING TO CONTEND WITH
VERY DRY AIR AT THE MOMENT AND OUR BOUNDARY LAYER CALMING DOWN
FROM A WINDY DAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES AND MOISTURE INCREASES
A BIT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER CNY. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING MOST AREAS, WITH AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF SYRACUSE. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


715 PM UPDATE...
LOWERED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS OUTSIDE OF
A FEW FLURRIES, WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
DO INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN ECHOES SO INCREASING CHANCES AFTER
9 PM FOR SNOW SHOWERS, STILL LOOKS GOOD. WE ARE SEEING QUITE A BIT
OF CLEAR SKY ACROSS OUR AREA NOW. ON THE WHOLE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS
TO FILL BACK IN OVER CENTRAL NY INTO THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. BEST CHANCES FOR A CLEAR SKY
TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW. 


320 PM UPDATE... STG NW FLOW AND ASSOCD CAA WILL STAY WITH
US TNT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL STAY UP FOR A WHILE THIS
EVE...EVEN AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PEAK GUSTS
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH.

THE AMBIENT AMS THAT IS COMING INTO CNY/NE PA IS QUITE DRY...THUS
OUR FAR WRN ZNS AND ALSO MUCH OF NE PA SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TO PTLY
CLDY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVER MOST OF CNY...LINGERING BLYR
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE CONDS AND WEAK LK EFFECT
MECHANICS...TO PRODUCE CONTINUED SNOW SHWRS AND FLRYS. OVER SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A 310-320 FLOW TYPICALLY FAVORS...LGT
ACCUMS ARE QUITE PSBL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM UPDATE... WED INTO WED EVE...CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW SHWR/FLURRY PATN FOR
MOST OF CNY...WITH MAINLY DRY WX ACRS OUR FAR SRN AREAS (NE PA AND
SULLIVAN NY).

LATE WED NGT-THU NGT...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACRS
NY/PA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED BLO NORMAL TEMPS
(HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THU...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BOTH
WED AND THU NGTS).

ON FRI...MODEL CONSENSUS STILL BRINGS A FAST MOVG SFC WV ACRS THE
MID-ATL STATES...WITH A SWATH OF LGT PCPN TO ITS N. THE EC IS THE
FARTHEST N...SUGGESTING THAT PCPN MAKES IT WELL NWD INTO
CNY...WHILE THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM KEEP THE PCPN SHIELD MORE
SUPPRESSED. FOR NOW...WE USED A COMPROMISE OF THESE
IDEAS...PERHAPS LEANING TWDS THE MORE SWD SUPPRESSED SCENARIO.
TEMPS ALOFT SEEM COLD ENUF FOR MAINLY SNOW...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY
AND YEAR...WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RAIN SNOW MIX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 PM TUE UPDATE... 

STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THEY
START TO DIVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS HANDLING ENERGY WORKING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN US FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS SHOWS THE EXITTING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY DRYING
OUT FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROP RAPIDILY ON
SATURDAY INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPPS THROUGH THE AREA USHERING IN COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY BE GUSTY WITH
DECENT GRADIENT LIKELY. SFC HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
DRYING AND CLEARING..LESSENING THE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS. HERE IS
WHERE THE MODEL SHOW HUGE DIFFERENCES...THE EURO HOLDS THE SFC
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS SHOWING PUSHING A WEAK TROUGH
INTO THE AREA BY TUES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE EURO...AND HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW FLOW CAA PTRN WILL GENERATE OCNL SNOW SHWRS THRU THE TAF PD AND
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS,,,ESP OVER NY...WITH LONGER PDS OF VFR
IN BETWEEN. TGT GRADIENT BHD THE DEEPENING NORTH ATLANTIC LOW WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS...ESP THIS EVE...AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE
MARCH SUN HELPS MIX DOWN THE HIGHER WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM LWR CLDS/SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY
TERMINALS.

THU...VFR.

FRI INTO EARLY SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN OR SNOW

SUN...VFR...OCNL MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
230 PM TUE UPDATE...SPORADIC ICE JAMS ARE BEING MONITORED AROUND
THE REGION WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT JAM CAUSING SOME FLOODING
ON THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BETWEEN TUNKHANNOCK AND WILKES-BARRE IN
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. OTHER REPORTED BLOCKAGES ARE ON THE CHEMUNG NEAR
ELMIRA...AND A SMALL STREAM IN THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AREA. ICE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND
ADDITIONAL PROBLEM AREAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...ABS/DGM
HYDROLOGY...






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy