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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 302349
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
749 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS APPEAR TO
BE WEST OF OUR CWA AND EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE CWA THROUGH AROUND 10PM TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPS... OTHERWISE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AT 4 PM...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS BKN/OVC
DECK MAY BREAK UP BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL REFORM OVERNIGHT IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. REST OF FA IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS THEY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND LAKE PLAIN BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AND ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. 

LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE TN VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH TREND OF INCREASING POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/WRN CWA. 

DUE TO JUICY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND FEEL MUGGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...LEADING SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SINCE
IT BEGINS FAIRLY EARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY. IF ANY AREA RECEIVES HEATING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS IT WOULD BE THE FAR SE BUT EVEN HERE A MARINE
LAYER MAY BE IN PLACE. IF ENOUGH CAPE IS REALIZED SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE
RATHER STRONG. WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO 
BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS AND CHC FOR TRW WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO INCLUDED IN GRIDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING
PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. OTHERWISE REST OF AREA WILL BE
MAINLY DRY BY EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BUT
CONTINUED MILD IN HUMID AIRMASS.

MONDAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 80S.
THERE IS NO TRIGGER BUT DUE TO MOIST SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHC POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NE PA. MAXES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONT...WILL CAUSE LOWERING MVFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR MOST TERMINALS 
OVERNIGHT. IFR CIG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY HILLTOP
SITE KBGM TOWARDS DAWN AS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE TAF. 40 KT SSW
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT AGL WILL PRECEDE AN EMBEDDED WAVE FOR
MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS KSYR-KRME FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD AT OTHER TERMINALS. INITIAL WAVE
WILL YIELD SCT LATE NIGHT -SHRA KRME-KSYR...WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
AND FRONT ITSELF AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SHRA MOST LIKELY DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY OCCUR AS WELL. REGARDLESS...MOST TERMINALS STUCK WITH AN
MVFR CIG DURING THE DAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE CB FOR 
ANY TERMINALS YET AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT/EXCEPT ESE KRME/...VEERING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...POST-FRONTAL MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS.

MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP






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