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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
SATURDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE
60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE SYR AREA
ACROSS ITH INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. RADAR/SFC OBS STILL
INDICATE JUST SOME SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ALONG FEATURE
WITH BETTER RETURNS OVER THE NRN CWA. CURRENT POPS OF SLIGHT
CHC/CHC LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST OF I81 AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN ENDING SHORTLY
AFTER.

640 PM UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS ROC TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
WEAK RETURNS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT DUE TO
20-30 DEGREES DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ONLY SPRINKLES ARE BEING
REPORTED AT THE SFC. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHC/SLIGHT
CHC POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NRN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO WRN NY ATTM. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN SE ONTARIO. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL AT
THE SURFACE EXPECTING VERY LITTLE TO FALL THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY SCHC POPS NRN TIER OF
NE PA NORTH. 

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO SET
OFF THE LAKE EFFECT WITH 850MB TEMPS AT -4C. WITH NW FLOW SHOULD
ONLY KEEP THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. 

SAT AFTN WAA ALOFT KICKS IN AND SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. AT
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DROPPING THE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA SAT NGT EXTENDING NORTH TO
QUEBEC. COLDEST NIGHT COMING UP WITH LOWS MOSTLY 25 TO 32. SOME
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT SFC WINDS LIGHT.
HIGHS STILL IN THE L60S.

INITIAL SFC LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA LAYING DOWN A FRONT
IN SE CANADA. PRECIP WILL BE STAY IN CANADA WITH A UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW. 

FOR RAIN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE DIGS A TROF INTO THE UPPER LAKES. LOWERED POPS TO NOTHING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ONLY SCHC POPS FAR NW MON AFTN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS. 

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES WORKING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN NY HOWEVER
LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON VERY DRY
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...EXPECT LITTLE
MORE THAN A BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL DECK AS FRONT ROLES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SOME CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE. AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER...MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OFF ALOFT. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
HOWEVER...AM INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR MENTION BASED ON THE
ABRUPT CLEARING TREND NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

WINDS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN NY. NONE IN NE PA.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 

THIS AFTERNOON...RH FALLING INTO THE 30S BUT WINDS ONLY 5 TO 15
MPH. SATURDAY INCREASING WINDS AND SUNSHINE. ERN AREAS COULD HAVE
GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. RH FALLING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS AND SEE IF THE 10 HOUR FUELS DRY ENOUGH.

FUELS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 20 MPH ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. AFTN MIN
RH WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY AND 30S MONDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...CMG
FIRE WEATHER...






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