000
FXUS61 KBGM 241123 CCA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
623 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING. ANOTHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THE REACH ABOUT THE HALF WAY POINT ACROSS
THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. ONCE IT
EJECTS...THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO FLIP FLOP SOMEWHAT OVER THE TRACK OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN COAST
LINE BEGINNING TODAY ACTUALLY. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF IN ITS
LATEST RUN...PUSHING THE LOW WELL EAST WHICH WILL KEEP ANY AFFECTS
OF THAT SYSTEM WELL AWAY FROM THE CWA. IT DOES INDICATE ANOTHER
LOW THAT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL
GENERATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA TO BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. SO ALL IN ALL...THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY HAS NOT CHANGED. THE
ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE OPTED TO NOT BITE OFF QUITE YET ON THIS COMING IN SO FAST.
ALTHOUGH...THE GFS IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
BROUGHT IN SOMEWHAT SOONER AS WELL. WILL NEED TO SEE MORE
CONSISTENCY IN THE RUNS BEFORE ADDING SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LONG TERM AS CWA WILL BE BHND DEPARTING STORM 
SYSTEM. AT SOME POINT EARLY ON IN THE EXTNDD...CLDR AIR WL FILTER 
INTO FA. MOST OF THE 00Z MODELS DROP H8 TEMPS WELL BLO 0C BY 12Z FRI 
WITH INCREASINGLY CLDR AIR PLUNGING IN BHND THE SYSTEM ALOFT. WITH 
NW FLOW COMING OFF THE GREAT LKS AND UL LOW PROGGED TO SKIRT THRU FA 
DRG THE DAY FRI...LKLY POPS CERTAINLY APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPS ON 
FRI WL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CAA AND WILL CONT WITH NR/LWR 40S FOR THE 
AFTN ALTHO MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF FALLING TEMPS DRG THE DAY. 

WITH TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE 40S...HV RETAINED RA/SN MIX FOR HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN LKLY ACRS LOWER TERRAIN. BY FRI 
NGT...EXPECT MOST PLACES TO SWITCH OVR TO ALL SNOW WITH POSSIBLE 
EXCEPTION OF LK PLAIN AND LOWER VLY AREAS WHERE RA/SN WL CONTINUE. 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS TUG HILL AND SUSQUEHANNA REGION MAY SEE SOME 
ACCUMS WITH LES KICKING IN. HWVR...MARGINAL SFC TEMPS HOVERING ARND 
FRZG MAY IMPACT HOW MUCH ACCUMS OCCUR HERE. 

LES CONTS ACRS UPSTATE NY THRU SAT NGT UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ALTHO 
LOWERING INVERSION HGT EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN DCRSG CVRG THRU THE 
WEEKEND.  FLOW LKLY BACKS OUT OF THE SW ENUF TO END PCPN BY SUNDAY.  
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MED RANGE MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER STORM 
SYSTEM DVLPNG OVR SERN STATES BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EVOLN THRU 
MS/OH RVR VLYS WITH GFS MUCH QUICKER IN BOOTING LOPRES NORTH AND 
EAST. THEREFORE NO CHGS MADE AFT MON AS BOTH MODELS INDICATE SOME 
FORM OF PCPN POSSIBLE BY MON AFTN.

TEMPS WL SETTLE OUT NR NORMAL OVR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BUT SYR EARLY THIS MRNG. WILL LIKELY
SEE VRY LITTLE CHG IN CONDS THRU THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTS TO SURGE INTO THE AREA ON SE FLOW. EXPECT THOSE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY AT IFR TO RISE TO MVFR INTO THE AFTN. BY SUNSET...CONDS
DETERIORATE AGAIN AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AND
MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR CONDS DVLP. 

WINDS OUT OF THE E-SE ARND 5KTS NEXT 24 HRS.

OUTLOOK...

WED/WED NGT...MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS. 
THU...VFR. 
THUR NGT-SAT...MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED BY FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. THE AIRPORT IN SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT
SEEN AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER.
THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING
AN INCH OR GREATER OF SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE
ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST
VERIFIES...IT WOULD MOVE US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK
THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET
THROUGH THIS SUNDAY (11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
AT THE AIRPORT.

* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
  FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
  BACK TO 1902.

BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.

TOP 5

1) 1946          276 DAYS       (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998          274 DAYS       (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009          271 DAYS       (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978          265 DAYS       (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941     263 DAYS       (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
CLIMATE...