Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Binghamton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBGM 250557
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD 
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM...ALBEIT OF LOW
IMPACT...WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING /MAINLY NORTH/ ON
AN OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND IT IS NOT EXACTLY THE CLEANEST CONSIDERING THE
MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THERE IS A LAYER OF CLOUDS AT 4-6
KFT AGL THROUGHOUT W NY/NW PA. THOSE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS
WEST OF I-81 AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM FRONT. SO PERHAPS MORE CLOUDS THAN ORIGINALLY FIGURED FOR
TODAY...YET WITH MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH /WITH GUSTS INTO 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN DURING THE DAY AS WE GET
BRIEFLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL REALIZE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

MODELS ARE WELL AGREED ON PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN PASSING THROUGH 
FROM 4PM WNW TO 9PM ENE. IT WILL DO SO WITH LIMITED SHALLOW
MOISTURE...AND THUS GAPPY LIGHT SHOWERS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY WITH AID OF LAKE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
DYNAMICS. IN THE TWIN TIERS...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS
SCATTERED. SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR AREA INCLUDING THE WYOMING
VALLEY PA MAY GET NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL FROM THIS SYSTEM.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBE ROUNDS THE TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH QUEBEC...AND WHAT CAN BE CONSIDERED THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BLAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERTAKING OUR
AREA 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...THE INTRODUCTION OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...NORTHWESTERN CATSKILLS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY-TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
225 PM EDT UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY POST FRONTAL AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE MSLP INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA.
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE FALL LIKE AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR. 

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THIS PD
(THROUGH 06Z SUN). PSBL EXCEPTIONS ARE KRME AND KSYR...WHERE A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS IS PSBL LTR THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVE HRS...AS A SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN. SPOTTY -SHRA MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS WX FEATURE...BUT VSBY'S SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-15Z...SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE W OR
SW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY). WINDS
SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE. 

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG...SPCLY KSYR AND KRME. 

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy