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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 240211
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
911 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW. 

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS. 

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN'T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY. 

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT. 

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE'LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF






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