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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 281135
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...
WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING, RUNNING ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
CENTRAL NY WITH LAKE CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME FLURRIES OCCURRING.
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE A CLEAR SKY IS PRESENT, ALREADY IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN SOME AREAS, BUT CLOSER TO ZERO IN OTHERS. FELT ALL
GUIDANCE HAD ITS FLAWS AND MODIFIED CURRENT TEMPS, LOWERING A FEW
DEGREES IN CLEAR AREAS FOR MORNING MINS, WHILE HOLDING IT STEADY
WHERE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN TOUGH. AGAIN OVERALL PRETTY COLD AGAIN
BUT BIG VARIATIONS WILL BE THE STORY THIS MORNING.

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK OVER
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. BEYOND THAT ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL
BE QUIET BUT CHILLY, YET AGAIN.

TONIGHT THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF SNOW FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE 0Z
GFS/EURO/CANADIAN/NAM ALL SHOWING PRECIP MAKING IN INTO OUR FAR
WEST BY 12Z SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY HERE, ESPECIALLY
RIGHT AROUND 12Z ITSELF. ONLY TALKING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY HERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN MOVED UP JUST
A TAD ON SUNDAY, VERSUS OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL NOT MUCH TO
CHANGE TO OUR SNOW TOTAL MAP BEYOND SOME COSMETIC TWEAKS. STILL
LOOKING FOR A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. FOR AMOUNTS I USED A BLEND BETWEEN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE 0Z EURO/GFS, WITH A BIT OF WPC GUIDANCE ALSO IN MY BLEND.
THE NAM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEMED A TAD TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY OVER
NEPA. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL IN THE SQUEEZE PLAY WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND EAST, AND A MINIMUM IN THE MIDDLE. ONE AREA OF
HIGHER SNOW FROM OHIO/WESTERN PA/NY WILL EXTEND JUST INTO STEUBEN
COUNTY. FARTHER EAST HIGHER TOTALS OVER EASTERN NY WILL LIKELY
EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS UP THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTY.
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND, A MINIMUM DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL BE
LIKELY FROM NEAR OR WEST OF THE SCRANTON /WILKES-BARRE AREA UP TO
NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BINGHAMTON, WEST THROUGH ELMIRA AND ITHACA.
SEE OUR WEBSITE OR FACEBOOK/TWITTER FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL MAP.

SNOW ENDS QUICKLY ON MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SNOWS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE BELOW NORMAL, TEMPS
WON'T BE AS BAD AS THEY HAVE BEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE... 
BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES TRANSITORY.
POTENT STORM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AGAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE...BUT AVERAGE IS ABOVE FREEZING NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AM BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NE.
RIDGING ALOFT WITH WAA AT MID LEVELS. OVERRUNNING PRECIP STARTS AS
SNOW TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. THE GFS IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS FASTER
THAN THE EURO. TUESDAY OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C SO
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. WARM AIR HEADS TO SURFACE
WEDNESDAY CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO RAIN EVERYWHERE. THE STORM
TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOVING NE INTO SE
ONTARIO WED AM. COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED PM CHANGING THE PRECIP
TO SNOW. 

CAA THU NGT AND FRIDAY SO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY SO DRYING ESPECIALLY NE PA. GFS
AND EURO AGREE ON A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
FRIDAY NGT WHICH MAY BRUSH THE NY ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LAKE CLDS AND VERY LGT FLURRIES THIS MRNG WILL QUICKLY BREAK UP
AND BRING ALL STATIONS TO VFR CONDS AS HIPRES BLDS INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS INTO
THIS EVE...WHEN CLDS BEGIN TO INCRS AHD OF A WV MVG THRU THE OH
VLY INTO CNTRL PA. XPCT LGT SNOW TO BRK OUT LATE INN THE TAF PD IN
THE SRN AND CNTRL TAF STAIONS BRINGING CIGS AND VSBYS BACK INTO
THE MVFR RANGE. 

.OUTLOOK...


SUN-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM






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