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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 030534
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
134 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE 
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE...
LAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW EXPIRING. STORMS HAVE
WEAKENED INTO A BAND OF SHOWERS NOW OVER THE CATSKILLS TO EXTREME
NORTHEAST PA...WHICH WILL EXIT IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
AT 745 PM...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN PROGRESS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR MOST OF OUR CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST ZONES. SEVERAL WARNINGS IN EFFECT...AND WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR /0-6KM 40-50 KTS/ PRESENT...DAMAGING WINDS HAS BEEN THE
MAIN PROBLEM. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN. DESPITE THE WIND...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER POOLING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...NOT A LOT OF LIGHTNING IN THIS
ACTIVITY BECAUSE OF VERY WARM LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AND CAPES LIMITED
GENERALLY TO 500-1000 J/KG.

ACTIVITY WILL FINISH CARRYING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. 
LATER TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY MOVING EAST ACROSS PA WHILE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW AT LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
LIGHT LL WINDS AND THE WET GROUND FOG SHOULD BE COMMON IN AT LEAST
THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY EVENING
AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE ZONAL. COOLER
AIR ON THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE LOW LEVELS INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THU AROUND 80 RISE INTO THE
M80S THU AND FRI. A STRONG COLD FRONT GETS INTO SE ONTARIO LATE
FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS WILL BE ACRS CNY/NE
PA THROUGH 13-15Z. IFR CONDS ARE MOST PROBABLE AT
KITH/KBGM/KELM...WITH DENSE FOG AT KELM...AND LWR CIGS AT
KITH/KBGM. FREQUENT MVFR CIGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP.

AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN DURG THE DAY WED...VFR SHOULD RETURN AREA-
WIDE...WITH THESE CONDS THEN LASTING THROUGH 06Z THU. 

W TO NW WINDS OF 5-8 KT TDY...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT AFTER 00Z
THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






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