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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 240830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE COLUMN. WAA
ALOFT AS AN UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS WARMER BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 50S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING
TO AROUND 0C. AFTER THE LL INVERSION BREAKS BY 10 AM WILL BE WELL
MIXED. BOMBING LOW MOVING SLOWLY PAST NOVA SCOTIA TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE SUSTAINED
AT 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ENOUGH WIND FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

TONIGHT UNDER A NORTH TO SOUTH STRETCHED SURFACE HIGH. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO COME IN AHEAD OF A
STRONG STACKED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG SFC LOW ON FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE
IF MODELS SLOW DOWN CLOUDS. DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTN AND MIGHT NOT
START ALONG I81 UNTIL SUNSET. STRONG STACKED LOW MOVES EAST INTO
OHIO DURING THE AFTN. THE BEST PRECIP WILL BE FRI NGT AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS ERN PA WITH AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS NY. PWATS RETURN
TO AROUND 1 INCH...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH.
DEEP LIFT BUT LL INSTABILITY NIL SO CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK WITH
NO TSTORMS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE LOW WILL WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS IN NY. 

SAT NGT SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE FAR NE.
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH CAA. RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE NEXT TO NOTHING. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW.

315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY'S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG
PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE'LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI. 

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 AM UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHER
WEST THE WINDS WILL BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. IN THE FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE LAST
5 DAYS. TODAY MIN RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. 10 HOUR FUELS
WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 8 AND 10
AM AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN. WINDS START TO DROP
ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENT SRN TIER MID AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. 

TONIGHT WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 MPH AND DO NOT RETURN TO THE SAME
STRENGTH AS TODAY UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH FRIDAY AFTN
DOES FALL TO UNDER 30 PERCENT BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE
WEEKEND THREAT LOW. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...TAC




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