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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 230745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO END AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TO RETURN. DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
OVERALL THE AREA IS PRETTY QUIET THIS MORNING. WE HAVE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT DO NOT HAVE ANY CONCERNS AS THESE
SHOWERS ARE JUST A LIGHT STEADY RAIN. A LOW STRATUS DECK HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY
MID MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE DAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. 

THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FINALLY STARTING TO CHANGE AS THE UPPR LVL
TROUGH IS GONE AND THE ROBUST UPPR LVL RIDGE IS STARTING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS HAVE LEFT YET. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
SOUTH AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR RIDGE OVER THE REGION
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF QUEBEC 
TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CWA WILL EVENTUALLY
PUT A CESSATION TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY TO BE OVER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 

DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ON THE
COOLER SIDE REMAINING IN THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT THUS VALLEY FOG
WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP. IN LOCALIZED AREAS VISBYS MAY BECOME
QUITE LOW DURING AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM EDT UPDATE...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPR LVL RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO PREVENT SHORTWAVES FROM SLIDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE.
THE UPPR LVL RIDGE WILL SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. DUE TO THE PREVIOUS MENTIONS SKY CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE AND FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S. EACH NIGHT
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING
THE NIGHTS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
AREA ON TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT MODELS DO NOT AGREE.
A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH WED BUT MIGHT BE DRY. CHANCE POPS THU
AND FRI...AND MAYBE SAT. OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH COULD CAUSE THE FRONT
TO STALL.

330 PM UPDATE...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE
MAIN QUESTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS HOW LONG IT TAKES TO BEAT
IT BACK DOWN. ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER BY SENDING A DRY WEAKENING
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
AND A WETTER FRONT THURSDAY. GFS MEANWHILE MAINTAINS THE
RIDGE WITHOUT AN INITIAL DRY FRONT...YET ALSO SENDS A WET COLD 
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND STRONGER THAN THE VERSION IN ECMWF.
HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH WPC GUIDANCE...WITH DRY WARM PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...THEN 30-40 PCT CHANCE POPS INCLUDING POSSIBLE
THUNDER BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEING NEARLY A WEEK
OUT...DID NOT WANT TO HIGHER THAN THAT UNTIL MODEL DETAILS CAN BE
FIRMED UP BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR MOSTLY 9 TO 12Z WITH MVFR
VSBYS...BEFORE RISING BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z THEN TO VFR BY 20Z. IFR
MAY STAY OUT OF AVP. CHC OF SHOWERS AGAIN BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY
AT ANY ONE SITE TO PUT AN EXACT TIME. BEST CHANCES WILL BE KAVP
MIDDAY. 

E TO SE WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS. 


OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THROUGH WED...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG MAINLY AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






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