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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 262015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY'S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT'S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS. 
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO. 

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS. 

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL FROM NEAR KBGM EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KBGM AND KAVP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH WE DON'T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE ABOVE IFR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KELM AND KAVP. 

OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PCF






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