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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 230026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA. 

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE 
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE 
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING 
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO 
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED 
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS 
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES 
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING 
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY 
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE 
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES 
UNTIL AFT 06Z. 

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. 
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING 
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING 
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE 
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG. 

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN 
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN 
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF 
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD 
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL 
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE 
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z 
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV 
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50. 

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN 
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE. 

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL 
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN 
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING 
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN 
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE 
M50S ON FRIDAY. 

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND 
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE 
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN 
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON 
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. 

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM






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