000
FXUS61 KBGM 182008
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
408 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW THROUGH
MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROF APPROACHES THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 4 PM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER NE PA WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING,
THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FA FROM RETURN
FLOW WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A WEAK SFC
WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES TO MUCH
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NE PA. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MOIST SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. IN THE
LAKE PLAIN WILL JUST ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS DUE TO LESS
MOISTURE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS WITH LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE PLAIN. 

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE SE PTN OF THE FA.

MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE, WITH BEST INSTABILITY IN THE LAKE
PLAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY
STALLS OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NRN PA. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED MILD AND WET PATTERN WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
UPSTATE NY TUE NGT TO THU. JUST IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
IN THU NGT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THU AFTN AND THU
NGT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT CONTINUES FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SE TO THE EAST COAST. MOSTLY DRY DAY. SATURDAY IN NW FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES AND SFC TROFS MOVING THROUGH. MAYBE
SHOWERS IN NY.

HAVE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODELS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO EVE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALL BUT SYR AND
RME 3 TO 6Z. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH 1500 FT CIGS 6 TO 9Z AT
THESE SITES. CIGS FALL FURTHER TO IFR 10 TO 14Z AT AVP AND BGM.
RME AND SYR FALL TO MVFR AROUND 10Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR
THROUGH 18Z. 

SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. 

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR INTO MON MRNG MAINLY SRN TIER
AND NE PA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THU...VFR FALLING TO MVFR LATE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC