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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220524
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING, AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN STEUBEN AND
SCHUYLER COUNTIES BUT THESE ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF ANY FORCING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN DRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. REST OF FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. 

525 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW JUST A COUPLE OF CELLS OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND DRY ELSEWHERE, STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS
PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. CUT POPS TO SLIGHT CHC ACROSS
THE REGION WITH DRY WX EXPECTED AFTER 02Z.

230 PM UPDATE...
A LOW LEVEL WARM CAP IS STOPPING CUMULUS TO GET MUCH HEIGHT AND
DROPPING RAIN. A VERY FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED. CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE HEATING STOPS BY 5 AND SHOWERS
END THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY THERE WITH CAPES OVER 1K BUT LIS
NEAR 0. WEAK SHORT WAVES AROUND BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
CAP EVERYWHERE. LATE TONIGHT AGAIN SOME PATCHY FOG WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DENSE FOG SO LEFT THE FOG OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...

TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG CAP WILL PREVENT
MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AGAIN. THE MODELS SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE CATSKILLS. A TRIGGER IS HARDER TO FIND BUT THE CAP IS A LITTLE
WEAKER. AGAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
DURING THE PEAK HEATING. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S. 

TUE NIGHT ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT WITH WARMER LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND HIGHER DEWPTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 

WED WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AND
AHEAD OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL
TIMING BUT MOST HAVE CONVECTION COMING INTO THE FINGER LAKES
MIDDAY AND MAKING MOVING TO THE POCONOS EARLY EVE. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE DONE WITH BY MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A 5
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE. WILL HAVE THE INSTABILITY BUT THE SHEAR
IS WEAK AT 20 KTS. THIS DUE TO WEAK WINDS WITH ONLY A 35 KT LLJ
THEN NO INCREASE IN SPEED ABOVE THAT. AGAIN A QUESTION ON HOW MANY
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOWER AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION. GOOD 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING IN ON THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES. 

WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT THURSDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE DEEP AND DECREASING AHEAD OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO COVER A
FEW DAYS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN THE COMPLEXITY
OF A CHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES OVER. A LARGE...BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROF TO ENHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GENERALITIES OF THIS
PATTERN SUGGEST A COOLER THAN NORMAL (MEANING 70S VERSUS 80S) AND
RELATIVELY WET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE DETAILS OF THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL POSITIONING DURING
THIS PERIOD. IT IS THEREFORE NOT PRUDENT TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
WHETHER OR NOT RAINFALL WILL BE MORE DOMINANT AT NIGHT, OR DURING
THE DAY. GENERALLY... PLAYING THE DAYTIME CARD DUE TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY FACTORS IS THE BETTER BET...BUT THE VARIABILITY IS SO
HIGH THAT A STANDARD MIDDLE GROUND OF CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF A
PERSISTENT BROKEN MID DECK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT
KELM BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT
KBGM.

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MAY DECREASE THE COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

WED/THU...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP






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