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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 181904
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME
SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WRAP ARND MOISTURE ASSCTD WITH THE
CYCLONE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ADVECTING SEWRD ACRS NC NY. THIS WRAP
ARND MOISTURE WILL BE S AND E OF C NY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSDC. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CONTINUING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE ARND -6C TO -7C WITH LAKE SFC
WATER TEMPERATURES ARND +5C. THIS IS A MARGINAL SET UP SO NOT
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. WENT FOR 1-3
INCHES ADDNL ACCUMULATION IN NRN ONEIDA CO. OTHERWISE AN INCH OR
LESS REST OF SNOW BELTS IN C NY. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE IN C NY OR NE PA EXPECTED. THERE WAS SOME MULTI BANDS
COMING OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO ONEIDA CO AND FAR
NRN ONONDAGA CO/S. THIS ACVTY IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD BY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. IN ADDTN...SOME BNDRY LAYER HEATING WILL POP
UP SOME SCT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACRS MUCH OF C NY AND FAR NE PA MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OTHERWISE MOST OF C NY AND NE PA WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN CLDS THRU
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST SHOT FOR SOME CLRG WILL BE
ACRS NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO...ESP FROM AVP-MSV AND POINTS S AND
E BY TONIGHT. THE WINDS TURN MORE NRLY LATER TONIGHT AND HENCE
EXPECT FLURRIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE!
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AGAIN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BUT WITH WARMING AIR ALOFT, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. BY SATURDAY
THE INVERSION REMAINS BUT THE THICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE THINS
OUT ENOUGH THAT WE HAVE A REALISTIC SHOT AT SUNSHINE. THE 0Z
CANADIAN, WHICH USUALLY HANDLES NORTHWEST FLOW, LOW CLOUDS WELL,
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WELL. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE SATURDAY,
OTHERWISE A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE... 

WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AT SYR/RME. WITH SHALLOW
TRAPPED MOISTURE THE SNOW COULD CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN
ADDITION A SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING DROPS THROUGH
POSSIBLY HELPING THE SHOWERS GET STRONGER. WITH A 300/310 LL FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD GET INTO ITH/BGM.

IN GENERAL MVFR CIGS EVERYWHERE. WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS RME/SYR
COULD FALL TO IFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AT RME. 

BGM AND ITH HAVE CIGS CLOSE TO 1K FT SO BGM COULD FALL TO IFR NEXT
8 HOURS IN SNOW SHOWERS.  

AVP AND ELM HAVE CIGS AROUND 2500 FT. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLY RISE TO VFR FRIDAY.  

W TO NW WINDS AT 10 KTS DROP TO 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT. 

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






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