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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 310849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE AREA VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO NE PA THAN CENTRAL NY. ALONG WITH THIS BETTER MOISTURE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
NRN PA. MUCH OF CENTRAL NY WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DM ON TUESDAY. A DRY PERIOD IS
IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BOTH TUE AND WED. WEDNESDAY, A
SHORT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN PA/NRN
VA. THIS FEATURE IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS PARTS OF NE PA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUE/WED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH THE NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. GENERAL THEME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE FOR THE CHC OF A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER MID- LEVELS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER
588 DM AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY DAY
AND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST A VERY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ECMWF SHOWS SOME FALLING HEIGHTS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY... HOWEVER NO AGREEMENT FROM THE
GFS AND BOTTOM LINE IS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
130 AM MONDAY UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE GONE LEAVING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. KELM HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO VLIFR BELOW FLIGHT
MINIMUMS. THIS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 13Z. KITH ALSO
EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
REST OF SITES SHOULD FALL TO MVFR VSBY 9 TO 12Z. ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS
TOWARD 12Z WHICH COULD MIX IT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG FROM CRASHING
EVERYWHERE. 

TODAY SOME VFR BROKEN CUMULUS FORMING EVERYWHERE WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BGM/ELM/AVP. RESTRICTIONS NOT LIKELY.

THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR AGAIN. 

WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY W TO
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TONIGHT AGAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. 

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. 
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...TAC



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