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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 311804
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
204 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. A CHILLY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MIX IN FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY BY LATER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
STILL A STRIPE OF SUNSHINE FROM SCRANTON THROUGH DELHI FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINDER OF AREA HAS INCREASING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPOTTY 
HOWEVER.

VERY SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...EN ROUTE TO CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW WHILE CROSSING SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND AT THE NC-SC COASTLINE BY 18Z SATURDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS...5 TO 6 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS...YET ALSO FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ONLY PERIPHERAL IMPACT. WE WILL STILL
GET THE UPPER TROUGH AND GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS...BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOCUSING FEATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL MAKE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. 

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH/CUTTING OFF
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PA/NY...KEEPING SOME LIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN-CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...MINOR FRONTOGENESIS-
CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS
ENSUES AT THE SURFACE WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. IN
EFFECT...A 700MB PSEUDO-FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION OVER OUR
AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.

MEANWHILE LACK OF JET SUPPORT...AND THE DIMINISHING TO EVENTUALLY
ELIMINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPLIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION RATHER SPOTTY ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY
WILL ALSO BE QUITE MINOR...AND NOT YET ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE
RESPONSE. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD
ENOUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SNOW TO MIX IN EXCEPT PERHAPS
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS /AND EVEN THAT IS
IFFY-SPOTTY/.

LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S TO NEAR 40...THEN TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL PROVIDE MILDER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 

A COLD FRONT SWINGING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 

AFTER THE MILD START, TEMERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR BGM AND ITH, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY NON-RESTRICTIVE. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






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