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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 032318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
618 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CC PRODUCT FROM THE
KBGM DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING SOME LOWER VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHERN PA INDICATING SOME MIXING
ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SLEET AT PLACES LIKE ELM. THE NAM HAS DONE
A VERY GOOD JOB INDICATING A STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB OVERSPREADING NORTHERN PA AND CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WITH ONLY ABOUT 3 HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE RANGING FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS... PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND A LITTLE MORE IN CENTRAL NY FROM
SYRACUSE TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. SLEET WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM AIR DEEPENS...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING... BEFORE EDGING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY
PLACES TOWARD 12Z.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE 
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC 
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. 
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS. 
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS 
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND 
DIMINISHING WINDS. 

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT 
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME 
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY. 
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO 
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE (PL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...WITH A LTL -FZRA PERHAPS MIXING IN)...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCNL IFR VSBY'S.

AFTER 03-05Z...THE STEADIEST PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF...LEAVING
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES OVERNIGHT. THE ONE PSBL EXCEPTION COULD
BE KAVP...WHERE A BIT OF -RA OR -FZRA COULD RE-DVLP TWDS DAYBREAK.

ON WED...AGN...MAINLY JUST MVFR CIG BASES ARE ANTICIPATED. A LTL
-RA OR -FZRA COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY AT KAVP...AND OCNL SNOW
SHWRS WITH IFR VSBY'S COULD IMPACT KRME FROM TIME TO TIME.

GUSTY S TO SELY WINDS THIS EVE...WILL DIMINISH OUT OF THE SW LATE
TNT...WITH WRLY WINDS BCMG GUSTY AGN FOR MOST TERMINAL SITES ON WED.

.OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...AND POSSIBLY KITH KBGM
KELM.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM






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