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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 161811
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORDS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS NEAR 20 IN MANY PLACES. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS THURSDAY/... 
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FINGER LAKES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. RECORD
LOWS AT BGM/SYR/AVP ARE 22/22/23 AND WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
LOWS NEAR THOSE VALUES AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS. NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER TEENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM WITH MRNG UPDATE. H5 TROF AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WL BE MVG THRU CWA TO START OFF EXTNDD. THIS WL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF MIXED PCPN TO THE AREA ON SAT. 12Z EC IS QUICKER TO
BUILD IN SFC HIGH VS 00Z GFS AND IT KEEPS PCPN LINGERING INTO SAT
NGT WITH LGT AMNTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF LURKING
THRU MID-WEEK. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
UNDER OCNL BRIEF S/WV RIDGES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR
COOL DOWNS EXPECTED. 

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

12 PM TUE UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BUT POSSIBLY A MIX LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN STAYS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. FIRST
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF GOES THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY. ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN. WITH NO BIG TROF OR RIDGES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO BIG SWINGS LIKE TODAY
AND YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO THE TAFS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LINGERING WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT BGM AND ITH. IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH SO DID
NOT INCLUDE. EVERYONE VFR BY 17Z. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KTS THIS
AFTN. 


12Z UPDATE...
VFR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS AT KITH AND KBGM. AT KRME AND KSYR NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP. BY 16Z THIS
MORNING EXPECT MOST SITES TO BE SKC AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. ONLY CHANGE GROUPS WILL BE FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH
NW WINDS GUSTY THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TOWARD 00Z EXPECT WINDS TO BCM LGT/VRB AND THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

THUR THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.
  
SUN... VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...PVN/TAC
AVIATION...PVN/TAC
FIRE WEATHER...






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