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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251803
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. 12Z BUF
SOUNDING IS DRY AND STABLE AS EXPECTED. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. 

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI'S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION. 

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HV FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE AS MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON OVERALL PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROF
IN THE EAST THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM. DISCREPANCIES EXIST
WITH REGARD TO SFC PATTERN AS 00Z EC HAS WELL-DVLPD SFC LOW ALONG
THE NY BIGHT 12Z TUE WHILE 12Z GFS AND CMC HAVE A SFC TROF ALONG
THE EAST COAST AT THIS SAME TIME. MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HV SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SFC LOW AT THE SAME TIME. 

ONLY IMPACT THIS HAS WUD BE HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS FOR TUE AS
ANY SFC LOW IN THE AREA WL ADD TO THE CONVERGENCE AND COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HTG THIS WUD LKLY BOOST POPS INTO THE LKLY RANGE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS HV KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS, WHICH IS BASICALLY WHAT WPC HAS. 

EACH AFTN WL HV THE CHC FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO DIURNAL HTG AS
UL TROF LINGERS ACRS ERN HALF OF THE NATION. TEMPS WL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODERATE AFT FROPA OCCURS ON TUE MRNG WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S AND LOWS IN THE L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
A FEW RENEGADE CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FLOATING OVER TERMINALS UNDER A
SMOKE LAYER. AFTER 00Z, VFR CLDS WL DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST A THIN BKN200
DECK OVER TERMINALS. MID-DECK EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AS UPR LEVEL
SYSTEM WORKS IN AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. 

ONCE AGAIN THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT BECOMES FOG POTENTIAL AT ELM.
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WITH
IFR ONLY OCCURRING FOR 30 MINUTES THIS MORNING, THINK THE CHANCES
ARE PROBABLY EVEN LESS FOR TONIGHT. THUS HV KEPT JUST 2SM VSBYS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z SATURDAY FOR ELM. 

WSW AROUND 5KTS WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, THEN
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-8 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE/WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN AFTERNOON SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




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