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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 212318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
STARTING OFF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE... A NARROW BAND OF SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EWD ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS EVE...ALG AND JUST AHD OF A
SHARP COLD FRNT. OVERALL...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...AND AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD WEAKEN
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. USING CURRENT FORWARD MOTION
AS A GUIDE...THIS NARROW BAND OF PCPN SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA IN
THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. 

POST-FROPA...WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL FOR MOST OF THIS
EVE...BEFORE SCTD SHWRS (TIED TO BOTH A STG S/WV AND A DVLPG LAKE
RESPONSE WITH PRONOUNCED CAA) SETTLE BACK INTO CNY OVERNIGHT
(MAINLY AFTER 04-06Z). 

WE TWEAKED POP/WX/SKY/TEMP GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THE VERY NEAR-
TERM...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...BUT THE OVERALL
THEME OF THE FCST STILL LOOKS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE.  

PREV DISC... 310 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW
ENTERING WESTERN NY. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF JUST SHOWERS, WE ARE
NOW GETTING A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER ONONDAGA
COUNTY. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD WIND FIELDS
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY (MLCAPES
OF AROUND 800 J/KG) ARE ENOUGH TO WATCH ANY STORMS FOR STRONG
WINDS. LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK LAPSE RATES. WHILE
A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED, ISOLATED WIND THREAT IS STILL ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO. IN ADDITION I WILL CONFINE CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER THAN 55% WITH JUST SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS QUICKLY END OVER NEPA WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT,
BUT LINGER OVER CENTRAL NY ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
310 PM UPDATE...

A CLASSIC FALL DAY EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S,
PLENTY OF STRATOCU, A BREEZE, AND LAKE AND/OR COOL AIR ALOFT RAIN
SHOWERS. BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL NY AND EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER THREAT BY AFTERNOON. BEST
SHOT FOR ANY AMOUNT OF SUN WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST (PIKE
COUNTY PA). HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF F THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTROL OUR WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE TUESDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS
AROUND 588 DM OVER THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS 
IN THE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE TN
VALLEY BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MAY INITIATE WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS MODIFYING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. A NARROW LINE OFF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. INCLUDED A TWO HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR SHOWERS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OVERNIGHT
BEHIND BOUNDARY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN BECOMING GUSTY BY MID
MORNING MONDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN
VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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