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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 240020
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
820 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM UPDATE... 
FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. TWEAKED DEWPOINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY FINGER LAKES REGION. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY SURPRISINGLY NARROW IN PLACES SUCH AS
CORTLAND...NORWICH...ELMIRA...AND ITHACA. COMBINATION OF MODELS
NOT HANDLING DEWPOINTS WELL...AND THE VERY QUICK RADIATIONAL
COOLING NOW OCCURRING. FORECAST ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...I HIT
THE PATCHY FOG EARLIER AND WITH MORE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. IN THE
MORE PRONE AREAS...ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG. MEANWHILE...DECK OF
CLOUDS IS HANGING TOUGH MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD CURRENTLY. RH
FIELDS IN 925-850MB LAYER SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS WILL TRY TO ADVECT
SOUTH YET WILL ALSO PROBABLY SCATTER OUT MORE WHILE DOING SO...DUE
TO SURFACE HIGH NOW IN WESTERN PA/SW NY BUILDING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SKY GRIDS THUS ALSO TOUCHED UP FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

4 PM UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT,
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO DENSE
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MAINE COAST GIVING
THE AREA A SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RESULTING SFC REFLECTION WILL TRACK FROM
COASTAL VA TO WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS FEATURE FARTHER
NORTH WITH EACH RUN. SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DUE TO ITS
TROPICAL ORIGIN BUT SFC HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF
NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS DRY OR IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PULLING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE. OVER THE NRN/WRN CWA PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE AREA LIKELY TO
RECEIVE RAINFALL TO LOWER 70S IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND
NRN CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH H5 HEIGHTS APPROACHING
590 DM. MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET AND WARM THIS PERIOD. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL EXTEND
FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A STRONG UL RIDGE
REMAINS FIXED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY. 

THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY RISK OF PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN
TANGIBLE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH WILL BE MORNING FOG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TO YIELD A BANNER VALLEY FOG NIGHT
FOR KELM. MODELS ARE ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...AND THUS I EXPECT KELM FOG TO SET IN EARLIER
THAN GUIDANCE...WITH KITH PROBABLY EXPERIENCING AT LEAST IFR VIS
AT TIMES AS WELL. KELM LIKELY TO REACH AROUND AIRPORT MINS 10Z-
13Z. OTHER THAN KITH-KELM FOG...VFR EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS...HOWEVER VALLEY FOG WILL EXIST BELOW KBGM-KAVP AND
PROSPECTS OF IT LIFTING TO TERMINAL LEVEL AROUND DAWN WILL HAVE TO
BE CONSIDERED /DECENT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT IS FIGURED AT THIS TIME TO PREVENT IT FROM OCCURRING/.
AFTER EARLY MORNING FOG CONCERNS...DRY AND VFR DURING THE DAY WITH
SOUTHEAST WIND 4-8 KTS...AND SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE AREA
DURING AFTERNOON AROUND 25 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH SAT...RAIN SKIMMING NORTHEAST PA LATE WED
NGT/EARLY THU COULD CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT KAVP...BUT THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SYSTEM. OTHER THAN 
THAT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RELATED TO EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP






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