Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Binghamton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBGM 282119
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
419 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT 
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT... 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SNOW STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY AND CHANCES WILL LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS... AS TEMPS HAVE MODERATED MORE THAN
EXPECTED. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPR 20S
ACROSS THE CWA. OTHER THAN THAT... PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1245 PM EST UPDATE...
A 1044 HIGH SITS OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
CHILLY WINTER DAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAVE RESULTING IN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE  WILL
CONTINUE DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ALLOWING LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL NY.

TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY IN THE SUNSHINE WITH THE LATE
FEB SUN. TEMPS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE
CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL START TO SWING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT AND WILL HELP REINFORCE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RIDE ALONG A BOUNDARY TOWARDS NORTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND HELP GENERATE OVERRUNNING SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE AFTER 09Z SUNDAY. EXPECT
FLURRIES AT FIRST... THEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DISCUSSED IN THE SECTION BELOW. COMPLETE DETAILS ABOUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STATED IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. 

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM UPDATE... MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE SUN-SUN
NGT SYSTEM. S/WV PHASING THAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR LATER TNT OVER
THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...WILL HEAD EWD SUN-SUN NGT...AND ACTIVATE A
STRUNG OUT SFC FRNT JUST TO OUR S...THEREBY ENHANCING WAA
FORCING/OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL. 

THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF LGT SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE CWA FROM ABT 12-15Z SUN...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
SNOW ANTICIPATED FROM ABT 21Z SUN-06Z MON...WITH THE SYNOPTIC PCPN
SHIELD PULLING EWD AND OUT OF CNY/NE PA THEREAFTER. INTERESTING
TERRAIN EFFECTS ARE NOTED ONCE AGN IN MOST MODEL SOLNS...WITH A
DEEP SWLY FLOW PATN LIKELY AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNSLOPING/ASSOCD PCPN MINIMA IN OUR FINGER LAKES/CNTRL SRN TIER
ZNS OF NY. SOMEWHAT HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE PROGGED OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...EXTENDING INTO WRN STEUBEN...AND ALSO FARTHER
E...GENERALLY NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...IT IS
IN THESE AREAS WHERE A WW ADVSY WAS ISSUED...RUNNING FROM 12Z SUN-
12Z MON. ALTHOUGH UPR JET FORCING/DEEP ASCENT SEEMS MAXIMIZED SUN
EVE...QUICK SYSTEM MOVEMENT SHOULD CAP AMTS WITHIN THE ADVSY
RANGE (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS EXPECTED...AT MOST).

MON...THE COMBO OF WRAP-ARND MOISTURE/LOW-LVL CAA WILL ELICIT A
LAKE RESPONSE...AND LEAD TO MORE PERSISTENT SHSN WITHIN MAINLY A
280-290 VECTOR ACRS OUR NRN ZNS. LES MECHANICS LOOK TO BREAK DOWN
BY LTR IN THE DAY/MON EVE...SO THIS SHOULD BE A MINOR EVENT...WITH
NO MORE THAN 1-3" EXPECTED ATTM. 

LINGERING -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END MON NGT...WITH DRY WX TO START
THE DAY TUE...AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILD ACRS NY/PA.
ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING SKIES MON NGT COULD DROP BLO
ZERO...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM LTR TUE-WED. ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC LOW DIFFER SOMEWHAT FROM
MODEL TO MODEL...THE BASIC IDEA IS THAT A MORE CONSOLIDATED SFC
LOW TRACKS NEWD FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ACRS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VLY. THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY PLACE CNY/NE PA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
A BRIEF TIME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF INITIAL SNOWFALL
TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX...AND PSBLY OVER TO A PD OF RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. PTYP DETAILS WILL BE TRICKY...WITH LOW-LVL COLD AIR
LIKELY TO BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE ACRS AT LEAST ERN SXNS OF THE FA.
THUS...FINE-TUNING ON THIS ASPECT WILL NO DOUBT BE NEEDED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STAY TUNED.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENTLY WARM
TEMPS/DEW PTS TO INITIATE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK IN AT LEAST PTNS
OF THE CWA. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT
WARM ADEQUATELY...OR FOR LONG ENUF...TO TRIGGER SIG MELTING. IT
ALSO SEEMS...FROM THIS VERY EARLY VANTAGE PT...THAT QUICK SYSTEM
MOVEMENT COULD LIMIT OVERALL PCPN/RAINFALL AMTS. ONCE AGN...WE'LL
BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITN IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM 
PORTION OF THE AFD WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY BY THURS 
MORNING. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THURS NIGHT. THESE 
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE  
BEHIND THE SECOND SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
THEN BUILD BACK TO THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET 
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO LOOK WELL BELOW THE 
SEASONAL NORM... THIS WILL CONTINUE THE COLD TREND INTO MARCH. 

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AROUND
03-05Z TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...AND
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT TAF LOCATIONS. THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OVER NE PA AS EARLY AS 11Z SUNDAY MORNING
OVER KELM. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY
AND IMPACT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. IFR VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER THE SNOW STARTS... THEN LINGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THEN
TRANSITION TO  SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...


SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY 
     FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY 
     FOR NYZ009-022-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy