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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1212 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1210 PM UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING TUFF FROM THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHEAST PA. EVEN THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE
FORECAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. TEMPS
HERE WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WHILE AREAS JUST WEST
ENJOY A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MARINE LAYER (LOW CLOUDS)
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THIS AREA EXPANDING
WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THEN MIXING, LOW LEVEL DRYING,
WILL BREAK THIS OVC DECK INTO SCT/BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS. A SIGNIFICANT
MAX TEMP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST AS
T925 WILL BE 20-22C IN THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AROUND 17-18C. BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE MID/UPR 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE
IN THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISC..
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM PULLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
CANADA.

925MB TEMPS IN THE 18C-20C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 OVER THE NORTHERN FA AND IN THE MID 70S OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FA WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL MARINE FLOW
PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UL TROF PROGRESSES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF
APPROACHES LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT, AND PASSES THROUGH NY/PA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER DUE TO POOR LL AND ML
LAPSE RATES, COPIOUS MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PLAN VIEW PWATS
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. IT MAY PEAK ABOVE 1.75
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CAPE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC TROF STILL HANGING AROUND ON
MONDAY WHILE UL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CANNOT RULE
OUT CONVECTION EVEN ON MONDAY, SO WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
310 AM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE LONG TERM. BUMPED
POPS TO LKLY FOR TUE AS CDFNT PASSES THRU. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE
80S AHD OF FROPA BFR DROPPING SLIGHTLY BY WED, BUT STILL RMNG SLGTLY
ABV SEASONAL VALUES. 

FOLLOWING FROPA, FLOW ALOFT WL BCM ZONAL WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING
IN THRU END OF THE WEEK BFR SHIFTING EAST INTO ATLANTIC. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODELS WITH REGARD TO END-OF-WEEK SYSTEM WITH
00Z EC SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WORK OUT DETAILS AND HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC-CHC POPS, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT AVP/BGM DUE TO STRATUS
DECK. THIS DECK SHUD SLOWLY RISE AND GO SCT-BKN BY MID AFTN. VFR
TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TDA. PREV BLO...

12Z UPDATE...
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING AVP THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
14Z. FURTHER NORTH TOWARD BGM, MAY SEE JUST SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS
FLOAT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IFR
VSBY RESTRICTION AT ELM THROUGH 13Z BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL JUST SEE MID-DECK
MOVING THROUGH. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE SAME TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS EARLY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 IN AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL NY TERMINALS. 

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...






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