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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
116 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE TREND WILL BE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
THE FIRST CONVECTIVE CELL HAS BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN
FA, WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF 500 J/KG
MLCAPES. MOST OF THE FA HAS 100-250 J/KG OF ENERGY, SO THE ODDS ON
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, BRINGING
AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NY/PA. 

1035 AM UPDATE...
MORE BREAKS OF IN THE CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED ARE SHOWING UP IN
THE CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTION. FEEL MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WAY THE PRECIP IS DRYING UP AND
DYING OUT AS IT INCHES EASTWARD ACROSS NY/PA. WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF FAIRLY MILD MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
CUTTING BACK ON THE CLOUD COVER BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...WAVE WILL EXIT STAGE RIGHT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH 590 DM HEIGHTS BY TUE. ON MONDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S UNDER A PLEASANT
NORTHWEST BREEZE. TUE, AIRMASS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S FOR MAXES. THE BEGINNING OF THE LONGEST STRETCH OF
WARM WEATHER SO FAR THIS SUMMER. ENJOY!

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING AND ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH. BIGGEST POINTS ARE MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MODEL BLEND (SUPERBLEND) EXCEPT WENT SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS BY UTILIZING WPC GUIDANCE. 

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LONG RANGE AS THE STRONGEST AND
MOST PERSIST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF THE SUMMER WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.TO START THE
PERIOD, DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WHILE WE DO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN
FOR THE LATTER TWO DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING
THAT EVEN IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS
CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...THESE TEMPS
BEING A GOOD 10+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG TO FORM AT KELM MONDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...PCF/TAC
AVIATION...DJP



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