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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 131044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING PEACEFUL DRY WEATHER. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BRIEFLY AT THE ONSET
BEFORE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN OCCURS FOR SATURDAY. COOLER AIR WILL
RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0640 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS AND
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LED TO LIGHT WINDS AND
WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
ARE DROPPING OFF TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. FOR THE DAY TODAY,
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH A BREEZY WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH
DEVELOPING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WHILE ANOTHER ONE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
MORE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, WILL LIFT NE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO
THE ESE. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO BRING TEMPS ALOFT ABOVE FREEZING EVEN BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW. STILL HAVE CONCERNS
HOWEVER....SFC TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S THIS EVENING
REACHING VALUES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS. AS A RESULT, AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD 09Z TIME
FRAME THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
NORTH TOWARD ONEIDA COUNTY. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN EXACTLY WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES, WHICH WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE
CONSIDERING THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE RISING LATE TONIGHT, DECISION
WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT.

ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS TEMPS
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AND A DRY SLOT TRIES TO WORK IN. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THIS IS NOT LOOKING TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT OF A RAIN EVENT AS SOME GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECTING AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF A QUARTER UP TO A HALF INCH OVER NE PA WITH A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL NY. THUS, MAJOR HYDRO
ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. 

PRECIP RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT IN A MORE SHOWERY FORM AS UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST FROM ONTARIO ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
DURING THIS PERIOD AS CAA ADVECTION ALSO SETS UP IN THE LOW LEVELS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW. THUS EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINOR.

SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND CONTINUING UNSETTLED ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SYSTEM. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. N/NW WINDS WILL ALSO BE BRISK DUE TO TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW TO THE EAST AND SFC HIGH
OVER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...
SOME VERM MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODELS AND WPC
GUIDANCE TRENDS. NO BIG CHANGES...THOUGH THE MIDWEEK SNOW SHOWERS
NO LONGER APPEAR PROBABLE TO LAST INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
ACTIVE UNSTABLE PATTERN. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THEN
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH WAA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
CLIPPER DROPS SE THROUGH THE AREA MON NGT WITH MORE MIXED PRECIP.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH IT CLOSES OFF IN NEW ENGLAND AND SE
CANADA KEEPING THE TROF OVER THE NE US. A COLD NW FLOW WILL GIVE
MOSTLY CENT NY SNOW SHOWERS WITH LESSER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
NE PA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY INTO THURSDAY. MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THURSDAY BUT LEANING WITH THE COLDER EURO WHICH
KEEPS THE NW FLOW GOING. ANOTHER WAVE DROPS INTO THE NE US TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
QUIET VFR TAF PERIOD...THOUGH CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO LOWER
TOWARDS 06Z SAT WITH RESTRICTIONS TO SHORTLY FOLLOW. UNTIL THEN...JUST
FEW-SCT HIGH THIN CLOUDS. VARIABLE WIND BECOMING LIGHT ESE KRME...SE
KSYR...AND S OR SSW KELM-KBGM-KAVP. KITH WIND ALSO VARIABLE
INITIALLY BUT INTO 10-14 KT RANGE FROM SSE LATE MORNING ONWARD.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...MVFR LIKELY AND POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SAT
/POSSIBLE -FZRA KRME EARLY/...THEN MIXED RAIN-SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUN.

SUN NGT-MON...VFR.

MON NGT AND TUES...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DUE
TO THE RECENT MILDER DAYS. THE RAIN ON TAP WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO CONTINUE WORKING AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK AND RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME AREAS
POTENTIALLY SEEING RIVER LEVELS REACHING NEAR OR JUST OVER ACTION
STAGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA AROUND WILKES BARRE. THAT
ALL SAID, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY TYPE OF WIDESPREAD MAIN STEM
RIVER FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS, AND ANY RESULTANT PROBLEMS, AS RIVER RISES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT OF ICE IN SPOTS.

IN THE LONG RANGER RANGE, GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP NEXT WEEK WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THE THREAT OF HYDRO ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...






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