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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 280818
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL DEVELOP LAKE EFFET SNOW
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SOHWERS ON
SATURDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SHRP UPR WV OVER WRN NY ATTM MVG SLOWLY EAST. SOME LGT LAKE
EHANCED SNOW SHWRS ALONG AND AHD OF THE UPR TROF MVG INTO THE FCST
AREA ATTM. AS THE WV PULLS OUT...A WELL ALIGNED WLY FLOW DVLPS
AVERAGING ARND 280 DEGREES. WITH RSNBL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE
AND A FAIRLY HI INV...SINGLE BAND LE EVENT IS XPCTD TO DVLP OFF
ONTARIO INTO THE NRN ZONES. MVMT OF THE UPR WV HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOWER TANH XPCTD SO THE BAND HAS NOT YET DVLPD...BUT THIS IN TURN
SHD ALLOW IT TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DRIER
AIR...LWRD INV...AND STRENGTHENING LL SHEAR WEAKENS THE BAND. HAVE
GONE AHD AND XTNDD THE ADVISORY THRU 00Z TO CVR THE XPCTD BAND TIMING.

SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN EDGED UP A BIT...AND OF COURSE XTNDD INTO
THE EVE. TOTAL AMTS NOT ALL THAT MUCH MORE SINCE THE ONSET IS
DELAYED...AND BAND SHD CONT TO DRFT NORTH...ESP NEAR THE END OF
THE ADVISORY PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SVRL FACTORS BRING AN END TO THE LE BAND IN THE FCST AREA
INCLUDING SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND A MORE SWLY FLOW DVLPG AHD OF
THE NEXT WV. OVRNGT HRS SHD GNRLY BE DRY OTR THAN THE CHANCE OF A
BIT OF ERIE LE AND WEAK OVERRUNNING PCPN INTO SAT MRNG.

GNNRLY OVC SAT AS THE WAA CONTS AND STILL THE CHANCE OF SOME LGT
PCPN...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES WITH STRONGER UVM AND SOME
LAKE MOISTURE AVBL. GNRL WSW FLOW WITH POCKETS OF MID LVL MOISTURE
AND LIFT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVC SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LGT PCPN. TEMPS ON SUN HI ENUF FOR FOR ANY PCPN TO BE LIQUID.
TEMPS SUN WILL RISE TO TO ABV NRML...BUT GUID MAY NOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTING FOR THE SNOW CVR...ESP OVER THE ERN ZONES SO HAVE GONE
SLGTLY COOLER IN THE GRIDS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE... 
SEVERAL CONCERNS REGARDING THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS HIGH. THE
BIGGEST ISSUE SEEMS TO BE THE HANDLING OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE
OVERALL 500 MB PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO BERING SEA LOW. AGREE WITH
WPC THAT LEANING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF SUITE IS BETTER AS THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW SHOULD AMPLIFY PRETTY GOOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST
CONUS. THE GFS/GEFS IS QUITE FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE. THIS GIVES US
ISSUES RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE ON MONDAY...AS GFS HAS COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MON...WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GGEM ARE
POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. THINK WE HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIP DURING
THIS MONDAY PERIOD. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
GO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL GIVEN THAT PESKY GFS SOLUTION BRINGING IN
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.

ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT AFTER A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE MON
NIGHT...TUES IS COVERED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY.
THEN...CONFIDENCE REALLY BREAKS DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SOME FEATURE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY 12-24 HOURS...SO HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH NO SPECIFIC TIMING.

GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PTYPES
DEPENDENT ON MAINLY DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ITH AND ELM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH. SYR AND
RME WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MORNING HOURS WITH NW FLOW
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT BGM AND AVP. AREA OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ENHANCED BY UPR-LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM
WRN NY AND BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO ELM AFT 10Z, ITH AFT 11Z, BGM
AND SYR AFT 12Z AND RME AFT 15Z. 

AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES EXPECT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID
TIME FOR ALL BUT RME WHERE MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON A TAD
LONGER. 

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW AROUND 5KTS WILL BECOME SWRLY TWD 00Z. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PVF






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