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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 270623
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL NOW TO CUT OFF...THE
SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR OFFSHORE AND THUS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. OUTER
EDGES WILL STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN EARLIER FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE CAN MEAN A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
/THAT IS...LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS/ FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM ...AS IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STORM GET PUMMELED EITHER WAY
REGARDLESS...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN
ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW REMAINDER OF
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE COMING DAY...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. WAYNE-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE STILL UNDER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BUT
WITH LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP WAYNE
EARLY. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. IT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FOR NOW THE ADVISORY IS STILL IN PLACE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
REACHING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND-CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON-ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CREATE BLOWING 
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR'EASTER WITH CLDS 
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C 
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT 
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST 
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG. 

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO 
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL 
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS 
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW 
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT 
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN. 

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH 
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT 
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY. 

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN 
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR. 

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. 

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES. 

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW. 

OUTLOOK...

 
TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






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