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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220848
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
348 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL AGAIN TODAY. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN MIDWEST IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MIXING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. 


4 PM UPDATE... 
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
340 AM UPDATE... 
WET PERIOD AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND
MIXES LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TUESDAY...WITH ANY 
LINGERING THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE CATSKILLS QUICKLY
ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. SW TO SSW FLOW WILL HAVE
MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT...BUT FOR TUESDAY MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED. RAIN CHANCES HIGHER TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS...BUT ALL RAIN TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE ABLE TO HARNESS THE
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN PARTICULAR CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A BROAD FEW
TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SPEED OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
AT THIS POINT THOUGH APPEARS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL
FOR WATER PROBLEMS. 

NEGATIVELY TILTING SHOWERY COLD-OCCLUDED FRONT TO BLAST THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. PRIOR TO
THAT...STABLE LOW LEVELS WILL PREVENT MUCH WIND FROM MIXING TO THE
GROUND...BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES THINGS UNSTABLE. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON WIND 
IN REGARDS TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES THURSDAY...AND STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN...YET THE ECMWF ALSO EXHIBITS CLASSIC
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER WAVE WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF GUSTY
WINDS. I HAVE PLACED 30-40 MPH GUSTS IN THE FORECAST...HIGHEST IN
FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NEW YORK TO WESTERN CATSKILLS...BUT
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS /FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH/ ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSESSED FURTHER WITH
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

MODEL TREND OF DECREASING MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR MASS
CONTINUES. IN THE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY /BEST COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL NY WITH LITTLE IF ANY IN NORTHEAST PA/ BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...925-850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS
COLD AS IN PRIOR RUNS. THUS MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY LOWER ELEVATIONS
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS CHRISTMAS DAY...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IF ANY INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW INITIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH A CIG AROUND
1200 FEET NOW AT KBGM, SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. SOME ICE PELLETS POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS. FOR NOW I
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THIS IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT KBGM, BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE JUST YET.

WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 KTS. 

OUTLOOK...

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE- THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN






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