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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 021758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AND 1 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. FIRST CHSOWERS LINGERING OVER NE CWA SO UPPED POPS
THIS MORNING. NOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAX FORECAST SO UPPED
TEMPS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING TO OCCUR BEFORE
SHOWERS COME IN AFTER 3 PM IN NW AND CLOSER TO 8 PM IN SE.

415 AM UPDATE...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
ELMIRA, AND A FEW MORE OVER THE TUG HILL GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF
OUR WEATHER THROUGH NOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF DETROIT WILL BE THE
TRIGGER FOR A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
18Z.

FOLLOWING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/ARW/NMM FOR TIMING, A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
OUR CWA TOWARD 18Z. IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FOR
THE BULK OF OUR AREA WILL COME CLOSER TO 21Z AND SHOULD IMPACT A
LINE FROM NEAR UTICA/NORWICH/BINGHAMTON/TOWANDA BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. AFTER 21Z THE LINE SHOULD SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH NEPA BY 03Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE
MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDE GOOD MID LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 KM BULK SHEARS 45+ KTS),
WHICH WOULD FAVOR BROKEN OR SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH IS PLAYING OUT IN MINIMAL MLCAPES. THE
NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 1,000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE THE RUC/ARW/EURO/GFS ALL SHOW VALUES CLOSER TO 500 J/KG.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO AND GRIDS WITH
GUSTY WIND WORDING, TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. WE WILL CAREFULLY
WATCH THE MESO ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A GREATER CONCERN. LASTLY, WHILE THE STORMS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE TODAY, PWATS DO BRIEFLY CLIMB TOWARD 2"! WITH
THAT IN MIND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. NO PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ASIDE FROM ANY STORMS MOVING OVER URBAN AREAS, WHERE
RAINFALL RATES CAN ALWAYS POSE A PROBLEM WHEN THEY GO ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN AN HOUR.

CONVECTION DIES DOWN BY 03Z, WITH DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARM AIR, AS A BUBBLE OF
VERY WARM AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADS EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE AFTER A BRIEF COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS NEAR 80, WE WILL REBOUND
WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER AIR
IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. READ MORE BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRI WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AS A WSW FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG
BRINGS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FNT APRCHS FOR SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TRWS.
HIPRES BLDS BACK IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR THRU THE END OF THE
PD. SOME HINT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE FNT COULD STALL OUT OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT IT LOOKS FOR NOW LIKE THE FNT WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABV NRML FOR THE
PD...XCPT FOR MON WHEN THEY WILL BE NEAR NRML. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

COLD FNT APRCHG THE AREA THIS AFTN TRIGGERING CONV OVER SW
ONTARIO. MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE FNT AND
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS WITH RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 21Z OND 02Z OVER THE
AREA. XPCT GRADUAL CLRG BHD THE FNT WITH VERY DRY AIR MVG IN.
XCPTN WILL BE AT ELM ONCE AGAIN AS THE ATMOS DECPLS AND WET GND
HELPS DVLP DENSE FOG AND VLIFR FOR SVRL HRS BEFORE DAWN. VFR
RETURNS TO ELM AND CONTS ELSWHERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. 

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN...VFR. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






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