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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 292332
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
732 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU REFUSED TO GIVE UP THE GHOST TODAY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAPID CLEARING BETWEEN
6 PM AND SUNSET. 

GIVEN AMPLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOIST GROUND,
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 2 AM. '

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S.

1005 AM UPDATE...
WE HAVE LINGERED THE CLOUDS LONGER WITHIN THE SKY GRIDS THIS
MORNING, AND SUPPRESSED MORNING TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. STRATOCU
AREA EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD I-81 CORRIDOR IS PROVING TO
BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK. THE MODEL PROJECTED BURN OFF HAS NOT
OCCURRED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER LOWER CANADA WITH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY REDUCE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD CORE ALOFT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID OR UPPER
70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES. 

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THUS HAVE BROUGHT VSBYS UP AT ELM TONIGHT AS
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LOW IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 AT ALL NY
TERMINALS FOR LAST 6 HOURS. 

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...PVN




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