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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 181742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY...PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE RISE
BUT MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SE FROM
ATLANTIC MOISTURE HAVE SLOWED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. AS A WEAK
COLD APPROACHES LATE TODAY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN TEMPS AND
CLOUDS NO CHANGES. 

345 AM FRI UPDATE... SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE LYR CLOUD DECK
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND FROM NJ/ERN PA ATTM. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...THESE CLDS WILL ONLY HAVE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO
MAKE MORE INROADS TO THE N AND W EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH AN ERODING
TREND BACK TWDS THE COAST ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE. OTHWS...WE
SHOULD SEE MORNING SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND THICKENING MID AND HIGH-
LVL CLOUD COVER DURG THE AFTN. 

A WEAK SFC BNDRY STRETCHED FROM LAKE HURON SWD THROUGH ERN LWR MI
AND NWRN OH AS ABT 08Z. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS FEATURE
MOVG EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVE...PUSHED ALG BY A S/WV
SEEN OVER THE UPR MIDWEST ATTM. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE ALG THE SFC FRNT...OVERALL DYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS
TO BE MEAGER...AND THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IS ALSO LIMITED.
THUS...WE'LL ONLY ADVERTISE THE PSBLTY OF SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA
AFTER ABT 18Z IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS. ANY ADDTNL LGT PCPN SHOULD
HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVE FARTHER S AND E.

FURTHER 925-850 MB WAA TDY SHOULD HELP PROPEL READINGS CLOSE TO 60
IN OUR LAKE PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 AM FRI UPDATE... THE ABV MENTIONED WEAK COLD FRNT IS SLATED TO
COME ACRS THE CWA IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVE...GENERALLY
ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY HIT AND MISS SPRINKLES/-SHRA IN CNY...AND LTL
OR NO PCPN IN NE PA.

LOW-LVL CAA LATE TNT AND SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BLO A DVLPG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN A POST-FRNTL SC DECK IN PTNS
OF CNY...ALG WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLRYS. ONLY PTLY CLDY
CONDS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S THROUGH NE PA. 

A LARGE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD ACRS NY/PA FROM CNTRL/SRN ONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WX SAT THROUGH SUN. ANY EARLY
MRNG CLDS SAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE BY
AFTN...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NGT...AND SUNNY CONDS
SUN. HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE
TDY...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S MOST LOCALES. A RETURN WAA FLOW
DVLPS AGN ON SUN...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRNT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WE'VE KEPT SUN NGT
DRY...WITH JUST SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN OUR NRN/WRN
ZNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY FOR MON NGT AND HV PULLED POPS
DOWN TO SLGT CHC CWA-WIDE WITH LKLY POPS FOR TUE AS FNT COMES
THRU. LINGERING PCPN EXPECTED TUE NGT AS UL TROF SWINGS THRU. 12Z
GFS INDICATES H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR THE COAST WHILE 00Z EURO KEEPS IT
AS AN OPEN WV. FOR THE TIME BEING HV GONE WITH CHC SHOWERS ON WED
FOR ERN SXNS. 

1020MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST ON THUR LEADING TO DRY
WX THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD. HIGH TEMPS FOLLOWING FROPA ON WED
WL DROP TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A DAY AND THEN REBOUND UNDER
S/WV RIDGING. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH TAF VALID TIME. MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02 AND 07Z AT
KSYR AND KRME. FOLLOWING WEAK FRONT TONIGHT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
BKN-OVC VFR CIGS ARND 5KFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 13Z WITH KELM AND KAVP SKC
AFTER THIS TIME. 

WINDS AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BECOME WNW FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE-WED...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM FRI UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%), SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WILL TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP TONIGHT MOSTLY IN NY SO 10
HOUR FUELS SHOULD BE BACK BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AGAIN WINDS UNDER 20 MPH SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. ATTM MONDAY WINDS
WILL BE BELOW 20 MPH BUT THIS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. NEXT
CHANCE OF A SOAKING RAIN TUESDAY BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO DELAY
THIS. 

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY TO MONDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...




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