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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 200541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS
THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS THIS EVE. RADAR PPINE AND LOW LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED.
LITTLE OTHER CHANGE. 

730 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
GETTING INTO THE 80S. SHOWERS STRUGGLING. ONLY A VERY FEW AND
MOVING SLOWLY. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. TOPS TO FREEZING LEVEL SO
NO THUNDER IN THEM. REMOVED THUNDER FROM GRIDS. VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT SO ADDED. 

300 PM UPDATE...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHERE A
STRIPE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE.
DESPITE NOTHING ON RADAR NOW, I MAINTAINED A 20% CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM OR SHOWER IN THE FINGER LAKES/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON SBCAPES NOW AROUND 500
J/KG IN THIS AREA, ALONG WITH CLOUDS ALREADY PRESENT AND THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INSISTING ON SOMETHING POPPING UP. MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. OVERALL A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FROM TIME TO TIME, WE
WON'T BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. AS
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST, WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH, AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL NY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. 12Z NAM
AND GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD
OVER NY STATE. IN ADDITION AN AREA OF HIGHER PWATS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER) IS MOVING IN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE ARE NOT TALKING A WIDESPREAD CONCERN BUT GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PWATS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, I PUT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE HWO FOR MOST OF NY.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AND WEAKEN, SHOWER CHANCES
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH KELM FALLING TO IFR IN VISBYS.
KBGM AND KITH MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS THIS THROUGH 13Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY HAVE THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THEM BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF ATTM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH







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