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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 011049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A 
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE 
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST 
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN 
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS 
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING 
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF 
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD 
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON- 
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO 
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS 
FOR THIS LABOR DAY. 

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO 
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC 
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS 
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS 
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS 
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM 
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH 
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z, 
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF 
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET 
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF 
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN 
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO 
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS 
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS. 

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT. 
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME 
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z. 
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY 
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.  

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH 
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS 
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS 
ONLY IN THE 50S. 

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT 
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT 
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS 
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE'LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE. 

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






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