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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 191944
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE... 
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS 
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT 
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY 
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE 
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE 
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING 
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ 
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY 
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN 
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON'T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. THE DETAILS
ON EXACT TRACK AND RESULTANT WEATHER ARE NOT PINNED DOWN DUE TO
THE DISTANCE OUT IN TIME OF THE EVENT...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM FEATURING MAINLY
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM LATER NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DO LOOK MARGINAL ENOUGH AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT TO WARRANT MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DOMINANT...SUCH AS THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.

ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS POTENTIAL LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH ON THE FRONT SIDE SOUTHERLIES...AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH THE WESTERLIES IN THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BE RATHER GUSTY. GIVEN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS...SNOW ACCUMS RIGHT
NOW LOOK MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT COUNTRY AS PRECIP MAY SHUT
RIGHT OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND OCCLUDED
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY COULD EASILY
SURGE BRIEFLY WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THUS WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A SLIGHT CATEGORY LIFTING OF CIGS THIS EVENING...AND SOME POSSIBLE
VFR WHERE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE EROSION OF CLOUDS NEAR KAVP
AND KRME. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR OVERCAST RULES THE DAY. RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WANE...HOWEVER
THE FICKLE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT TIMES INTO
TONIGHT. REALLY NO CONFIDENCE ATTM TO KEEP INCLUDING IN THE SFC
TAF FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT PILOTS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER IN CLOUD
MIXED TO CLEAR ICING IN THE APPROACH PATTERNS...BUT SUB CLOUD ICE WILL BE
HIT AND MISS AT THE TERMINALS.

POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS. 

SUN TO MON...BECOMING VFR CIG.

MON NGT TO WED...MVFR/IFR. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...THEN PERIODS
OF RAIN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB






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