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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 280538
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN
ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP IN IT'S WAKE AND PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
220 PM EST UPDATE...
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ONEIDA...
ONONDAGA... AND MADISON COUNTIES. THE ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT
STARTING TONIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE
HAVE INCREASED THAT WE WILL SEE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS... THUS
DECIDED TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY. EXPECT THE BAND TO DEVELOP AFTER 02Z
TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL. PLEASE BE SAFE
AND HAVE A HAPPY THANKSGIVING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1245 PM EST UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS.

A SLIGHT RIPPLE OF A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE STILL LOCATED OVR THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER
PORTIONS OF NY AND PA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE
MENTIONED WAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CONTINUATION OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE
AS AND LIFT NE OUT OF THE AREA.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL THEN START TO PUSH IN THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BEHIND
THE TROUGH AXIS.

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO HAVE MORE OF A SINGLE BAND
SIGNATURE AS THE MEAN WIND WITHIN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES AROUND 290 TO 300 DEGREES. THE SINGLE BANDS MAY
FLUCTUATE EARLY ON BUT REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL
INTENSIFY AS A CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE BRIEFLY SETS UP OVER THE
REGION. THIS IS WHEN YOU HAVE STRONG OMEGA AND SATURATION WITHIN THE
OPTIMAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. BY 16Z WE LOSE THIS SIGNATURE.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE BAND WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH. LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THE BAND SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION AND FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD THE CWA WX WILL BE QUIET.

SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND DRAG A WEAK WARM FRONT... MAINLY ALOFT... ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW CONTINUOUS WAA ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHICH MAY RESULT IN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NY AND PA.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH SUN. PRECIP WILL START
AS SNOW... THEN AS THE TEMPS ALOFT WARM DUE TO STRONG WAA LATE SAT
NIGHT... SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN.

THERE WILL BE SO MUCH WAA... THAT TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE. TEMPS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL START BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM THEN
RISE WELL ABOVE THE NORM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE... 
SEVERAL CONCERNS REGARDING THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS IS HIGH. THE
BIGGEST ISSUE SEEMS TO BE THE HANDLING OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE
OVERALL 500 MB PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO BERING SEA LOW. AGREE WITH
WPC THAT LEANING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF SUITE IS BETTER AS THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW SHOULD AMPLIFY PRETTY GOOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST
CONUS. THE GFS/GEFS IS QUITE FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE. THIS GIVES US
ISSUES RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE ON MONDAY...AS GFS HAS COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MON...WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GGEM ARE
POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. THINK WE HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIP DURING
THIS MONDAY PERIOD. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
GO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL GIVEN THAT PESKY GFS SOLUTION BRINGING IN
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.

ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT AFTER A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE MON
NIGHT...TUES IS COVERED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY.
THEN...CONFIDENCE REALLY BREAKS DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EACH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE SOME FEATURE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY 12-24 HOURS...SO HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH NO SPECIFIC TIMING.

GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PTYPES
DEPENDENT ON MAINLY DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ITH AND ELM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH. SYR AND
RME WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MORNING HOURS WITH NW FLOW
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT BGM AND AVP. AREA OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ENHANCED BY UPR-LVL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM
WRN NY AND BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO ELM AFT 10Z, ITH AFT 11Z, BGM
AND SYR AFT 12Z AND RME AFT 15Z. 

AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES EXPECT VFR REMAINDER OF TAF VALID
TIME FOR ALL BUT RME WHERE MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY HANG ON A TAD
LONGER. 

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW AROUND 5KTS WILL BECOME SWRLY TWD 00Z. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON 
     EST TODAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PVF






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