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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 231748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY THIS MORNING THEN SOME SUNNY
BREAKS BY AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE RAINY
FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1215 PM UPDATE...THE AREA OF LGT PCPN HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER/LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...WE'VE INCLUDED A
CHC OF SPRINKLES FROM ABT THE TWIN TIERS NWD THROUGH 18-20Z.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF CLDS/SPRINKLES...SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ON SAT
IMAGERY ACRS PA...AND WE THINK SKIES WILL BECOME AT LEAST PTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTN. 

THEREAFTER...CLDS WILL INCREASE AGN BY EARLY EVE...WITH RAIN
SETTING IN BY 03-06Z.

PREV DISC... 10 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW COSMETIC CHGS ARE NEEDED ATTM.

A WEAKENING AREA OF SHWRS/SPRINKLES CONTS TO LIFT NEWD LATE THIS
MRNG FROM WRN NY/NWRN PA...ASSOCD WITH A VERY WEAK S/WV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SWLY FLOW PATN ALOFT. WE FEEL A FEW
SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE NRN FINGER LKS THROUGH ABT
MIDDAY...BUT THAT'S ABT IT...WITH MUCH OF THE FA STAYING DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. 

A BAND OF THICKER CLDS TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED FEATURE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH OUR WRN/NRN ZNS THROUGH 16-18Z...BUT OTHWS BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD DVLP WITH TIME TDY. INSOLATION COMBINED WITH
925-850 MB WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S-MID
50S.  

EARLIER DISC... AT 415 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF I81 WITH THE PRECIP FALLING AS JUST RAIN SINCE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. SFC HIGH PRES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE LESS WEST AND LITTLE MORE EAST. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY RISE ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY...ONCE THE SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THE REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH T85 AROUND 10/12C WILL BRING
TEMPS CLOSE TO RECORDS. MAXES WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION, LAKE PLAIN AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA THE TRAILING SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH FROPA. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL END
BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING OCCURS FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST
OF REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS TUE
NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LL
JET PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH NY AND PA. 

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGELY
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS KICKS OFF BETWEEN 0Z AND 4Z, WITH 1500-2000
FT WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER 40 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN
4Z AND 8Z, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR PUSH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THE MOISTURE WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AT BGM.

WARM SECTOR ARRIVES BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY, THOUGH SKIES MAY
REMAIN OVERCAST. MODELS ARE NOT QUICK TO CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP






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