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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251722
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND MILD 
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND
COOLER SUNDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK. DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PASSING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE...
STRONG S/WV HAS MADE IT INTO SRN ONTARIO AS OF 17Z WITH LINE OF 
SHOWERS GETTING EVER CLOSER TO NRN LK ONTARIO. QUESTION CENTERS ARND 
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WL MAKE IT INTO CWA THIS AFTN. PLAN TO CONT JUST 
SCTD SHOWER MENTION MAINLY FOR FAR NRN ZONES AFT 20Z AND SHOWERS WL 
QUICKLY WORK THRU BY 00Z. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, HV RMVD THUNDER FOR 
THIS AFTN AS NO CGS OR IN-CLD LGTNG HAS BEEN NOTED AT ALL TDA OVR 
CANADA. 

ANOTHER WV ALONG WITH MAIN CDFNT WL FOLLOW ON INITIAL S/WV'S HEELS 
QUICKLY BHND. AFT INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS QUICKLY MVS THRU AFT 00Z 
EXPECT TO SEE DVLPMNT UPSTREAM AND MV IN ACRS WRN ZONES TWD 
MIDNIGHT. THIS WL ALSO BE A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS ACRS CNTRL NY 
OVRNGT, MAYBE AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AFT THIS 
TIME H8 CAA WL COMMENCE RAPIDLY AND LKLY RESULT IN DVLPMNT OF LK 
EFFECT SHOWERS IN 295 DEGREE FLOW.  DELTA T'S INCRS TO > +13C AFT 
07Z AND EXPECT CVRG TO WARRANT LKLY POPS TWD 12Z IN NW FLOW. 

EXPECTING MIN TEMPS TO BE WRMR THAN LAST NGT EVEN WITH CAA 
OCCURRING. PLENTY OF CLDS WL RESULT IN "WRMR" TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT. 
EXCEPTION WL BE NEPA WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO ARND 40 IN DEEPER VLYS, 
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...
COOL BLUSTERY DAY SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN 
SHOWERS...THEN QUIET MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY DAWN SUNDAY. 
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUBZERO SUNDAY...MEANWHILE
LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 12-14 CELSIUS. THIS COLD
AIR ALOFT WITH STOUT WNW FLOW OFF OF LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO 
SUNDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LAKE-MODIFIED AIR MASS
MIXING TO AT LEAST 10 KFT AGL...WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
YIELD CLOUDS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND EXTENDING TO SOME OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...EVEN A
BIT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. INDEED...THE 85OMB RIDGE DOES
NOT EVEN REACH US UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE
WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS FIGURED SUNDAY...THEN SOME DIMINISHING OF
IT SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LOT OF MIXING
SUNDAY WILL YIELD 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND DRY WEATHER. THOUGH REMAINS OF LAKE STRATOCUMULUS WILL FALL
APART...HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WARM FRONT WILL ALSO ALREADY BE
STREAMING IN OUT OF THE WEST. WE WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT HOW
WIDE THAT WINDOW OF IT WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY MILD MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD...THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
125 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS HV COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM MVG IN
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. WHILE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH EC
REGARDING TIMING OF FROPA LATE TUE NGT, LATEST CMC IS SLOWER AND
DOES NOT BRING FROPA THRU UNTIL WED MRNG. EITHER WAY, HV GONE WITH
WPC GUIDANCE FOR SYSTEM WITH CHC SHOWERS. NW FLOW WL FOLLOW SYSTEM
AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN CANADA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR LK EFFECT
SHOWERS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN ON THUR. 

TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL ABV NORMAL ON TUE AHD OF SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 70S DRG THE AFTN. CDFNT PASSAGE WL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TWD NORMAL VALUES THRU THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABT 00Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION IS KRME...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE MRNG (14-15Z). 

BY EARLY THIS EVE...A SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENTER UPSTATE
NY...IMPACTING KSYR AND KRME. FARTHER S...VFR SHOULD REMAIN THE
RULE...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT
KITH/KELM/KBGM...SPCLY TWDS DAYBREAK. SPOTTY -SHRA ARE ALSO
FORESEEN...BUT VSBY'S SHUD REMAIN AOA 6SM.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 14-16Z...SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE W OR
SW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN (GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE LIKELY). WINDS
SHOULD VEER INTO THE NW LATE IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG...SPCLY KSYR AND KRME.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...MLJ






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