Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Binghamton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBGM 201756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM CENTERED IN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH RAIN. THE LOW WILL STAY ON THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN
OVER OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE GRIDS AS
THE WAA HAS DVLPD SOME PTCHY VERY LGT RAIN THIS MRNG. HAVE ALSO
SLOWED THE WRM UP AS THE CLDS HAVE LIMITED THE SFC WRMG ESP IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER. NO OTR CHGS ATTM.


630 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPS AND CLOUDS. CLOUDY SKIES ALREADY
HERE BUT SOME OF THAT IS HIGH AND THIN. A THICKER MID DECK WILL BE
HERE BY THE END OF THE DAY. IN THE FINGER LAKES WITH THE MID DECK
TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S. ON THE OTHER END, LACKAWANNA AND
LUZERNE STILL DOWN AROUND FREEZING. THIS WILL END THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. PNS SENT TO THAT EFFECT. ONONDAGA TO YATES ONLY
COUNTIES LEFT AND THAT ONLY TO THE 25TH, WHICH IS 2 WEEKS AFTER
THE MEDIAN FIRST FALL FREEZE DATE. 

330 AM UPDATE...

A SFC LOW OVER THE U P OF MI IS STRENGTHENING AND DROPPING SE
TOWARDS OUR CWA. THIS LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE
MOVEMENT IS SLOW SO TODAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. WAA SO AFTN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

COOL WET PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW AND TROF MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CLOSE OFF JUST OFF THE NJ COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SLOW
MOVEMENT ONCE ON THE COAST SO CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTER CLOCKWISE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO NY/PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL KEEP
IT COOL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN ANY 24
PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE SO THAT BY TUESDAY IT
SHOULD BE RAINING EVERYWHERE. BEST CHC OF STEADY RAIN TUES AFTN
WITH SFC LOW PASSAGE. LATER IN SHORT TERM HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT. NEXT WV WL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z AT RME,
SYR, ITH AND ELM. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF AT BGM UNTIL CLOSER
TO 08Z-12Z. ONCE STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN, EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
TO FOLLOW. MVFR WILL LIKELY REMAIN THRU 18Z TUESDAY.

DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED AT RME, SYR AND AVP WITH LGT/VRB ELSEWHERE.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 3-8 KTS AFTER 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUES THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy