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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 231751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER...AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 13Z...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK AND MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. THERE IS A BIT MORE PRE-FRONTAL CLEAR SKY...AND THEREFORE
SOLAR INSOLATION THIS MORNING WHICH IS AN ADDED CONCERN FOR
INSTABILITY. MODIFIED KBUF AND KALY 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST MEAN LAYER
MIXED CAPE VALUES REACHING ABOUT 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
DECENT. MID-LVL WINDS ABOUT 35 KTS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...BUT
THEY ARE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY/NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN GENERAL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS HANDLING THE
TREND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TODAY AND EXITING THIS EVENING. CENTRAL NY LOOKS TO BE THE
GENERATION AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME SUBTLE
TIMING CHANGES TO DELAY DEVELOPMENT BY A COUPLE HOURS OR SO...AND
LIMIT COVERAGE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO A MORE SCATTERED NATURE.
MAY HAVE TO DO SOME MORE TRIMMING OF THE LIKELY POPS IF THINGS
DON/T FIRE AS EXPECTED...AND MESOSCALE MODEL RADAR SIMULATIONS ARE
HINTING AT A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE AS WELL. 

UPDATED HAZ WX OUTLOOK TO MENTION PSBL SEVERE FOR EASTERN NY ZONES
AND NEPA. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA
INTO THE MID-UPR 80S WITH MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE THAN PREV THOUGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... THE SFC FRNT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE TNT AS
IT HEADS TWDS THE EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...WE CONTINUE TO CARRY
SOME LINGERING SHWRS OVERNIGHT IN OUR SRN AND ERN ZNS...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS AS YOU HEAD FURTHER N AND W.

ON THU...WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A SUNNIER AFTN...AS THE MAIN UPR-LVL TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH THE SFC
FRNTL ZN FARTHER EWD AND OFF THE COAST. THE MAIN STORY THU WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS AND LWRG HUMIDITY LVLS (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S).

FRI LOOKS LIKE A REAL WINNER FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...AS SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE W TO BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALG WITH
COMFORTABLE TEMPS (HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S-LWR 80S)...AND CONTINUED
LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST 
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT 
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF 
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY 
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR 
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED 
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WMSECTOR ALONG WITH 
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR 
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH 
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH 
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE 
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR 
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA 
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND 
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR TSRA TO
CONTINUE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL TRY TO TIME
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IN INDIVIDUAL TAF FORECASTS. EXPECT TSRA AT
SYR THROUGH 19Z, RME THROUGH 20Z AND REMAINDER OF TERMINALS
THROUGH 22Z, POSSIBLY 23Z AT AVP. AFTER LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO SET IN IN WAKE OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER 14Z THURSDAY EXPECT
NW WINDS FROM 10-15KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THUR-SAT...VFR.

SUN/MON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




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