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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 310718
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD. 

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW. 

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD. 

FOR NOW...WE'LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP'S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE'VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. 

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRATO CU IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KITH/KBGM BUT NOT 
INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. BY MID MORNING JUST MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KSYR/KELM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E/SE AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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