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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 302352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY LATER
SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
225 PM THU UPDATE... PLUME OF LAKE-EFFECT -SHRA CONTINUES LATE
THIS AFTN FROM ROUGHLY KSYR SEWD TOWARDS ONEONTA. WE STILL EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN...THEN ULTIMATELY DSIPT BY THIS EVE. 

HOWEVER...THE THICK MASS OF SC CLDS OVER CNY/NE PA WILL VERY
LIKELY HANG IN LONGER...AS UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TNT...AND MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. MOST MODEL RH PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE BLYR AFTER
03-06Z...SPCLY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH WE DO LOSE
THE LAKE CONNECTION/UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...THE INVERSION
WILL REMAIN. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT WE'LL GRADUALLY LOSE THE SC
CLDS ACRS NE PA AND PTNS OF NY'S SRN TIER...WITH THE NRN ZNS
KEEPING THE LWR CLDS A BIT LONGER. 

TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TNT...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE LOWS RANGING IN THE 30S (WITH LWR 30S IN THE
POCONOS/CATSKILLS WHERE CLEARING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND UPR
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN CNTYS...WHERE THICKER CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR A LONGER PD OF TIME).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM THU UPDATE... THE WELL ADVERTISED DEEPENING TROUGH PATN
OVER THE ERN STATES IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS PD. 

ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL MODEL TO MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...LARGE-SCALE
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THAT A SRN BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...AND THEN CLOSE OFF OVER VA/NC BY SAT...ULTIMATELY
AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE...AND SPINNING UP A ROBUST SFC CYCLONE WELL OFF
THE COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG
A BIT BEHIND...AND CROSS NY/PA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.

THE SRN BRANCH TROUGH AND DEEP OCEANIC STORM STILL APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAR REMOVED TO OUR E AND S TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR FCST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRI NGT...SAT...AND SAT NGT...AS INSTAB/FORCED LIFT ACTS
UPON THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
FOR ANYTHING BUT LIQUID PTYPE FRI NGT AND SAT...HOWEVER BY SAT
NGT/SUN MRNG...WE SHOULD TREND TWDS SNOW. 

DEPENDING ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LVLS DRY OUT SAT NGT/EARLY
SUN...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FINGER LAKES SNOW
BAND DVLPMT...GIVEN A DEEP NRLY FLOW PATN...SUFFICIENT LAKE/AIR
TEMP DIFFS...AND POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE MOISTURE SUPPLY. ONCE
AGN...THE EXACT BLYR FLOW ORIENTATION AND LONGEVITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE KEY FACTORS IN THIS REGARD. 

FOR NOW...WE'LL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCTD POP'S FRI NGT-SAT NGT FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THINGS DRYING OUT BY SUN AFTN. TEMPS WILL
BE CHILLY THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S SAT...AND IN
THE 30S-LWR 40S SUN. READINGS SAT NGT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPR
20S-LWR 30S IN MOST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE'VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED. 

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AN SC DECK IS BREAKING UP TO SOME EXTENT AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NY AND PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WONT SEE IFR AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR
WILL BE AT BGM AND ITH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THEN FOR FRI
EXPECT MAINLY MID TO HI CLDS. SOME LOWER CLDS WILL POSSIBLY WORK
INTO KAVP LATE IN THE PD. 

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DJN






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