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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 172145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
445 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE LATE TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FARTHER SOUTH A FEW SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OF 3 PM. THIS BAND WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS GRADUALLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WILKES-BARRE
AND SCRANTON AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH WITH PRECIPTIATION REMAINING
TO THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER EARLY THIS
EVENING IN MANY AREAS... THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BIT OF
LAKE ENHNACEMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -8 C. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING
AROUND -8 TO -10 C... WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A MINOR
LAKE RESPONSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE -10 TO -20
DEGREE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIGHT EVEN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT I THINK
THAT IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO AND I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ZL IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 30 TO 35 AND LOWS 20 TO 25 IN MOST PLACES.

BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE MIGHT BE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURNIG THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE..

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT AND SUN SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INVERTED TROF FROM A COASTAL STORM WELL OUT TO
SEA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY 2 INCHES OR LESS. 

DRY SUN NGT AND MON WITH A MILD SFC HIGH. MON NGT AND TUE MODELS
NOW TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COASTAL STORM NE INTO THE AREA WITH
MIXED PRECIP. ADDED SOME LOW CHC POPS. 

WED A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A LARGE BOMBING
STACKED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. WARM AIR SO PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FIRST FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
FLOODING AND SECOND FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ON THE TAIL END OF THE STEADY RAIN IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WED
NGT AND STAY COLD THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CAA WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW. GETTING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE SFC LOW IS WELL
NE NEAR OTTAWA. PRECIP STILL IN NY BUT LIFTING NORTH SO THAT ONLY
SYR AND RME WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. 

ELM WILL FALL TO MVFR CIGS AND BE MAINLY DRY. IMPROVEMENT THU MORN
TO VFR. BGM NOW HAS IFR CIGS BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR LATE
TODAY AS THE STEADIER PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. ITH LOW MVFR NOW AND
TONIGHT. ITH AND BGM IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR THU MORN.

AVP SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AND DRY. 

WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS THIS AFTN. W TO NW
WINDS TONIGHT AT 10 KTS THEN THU 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI... MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL AT
KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM DUE TO CIGS AND AT TIMES WITH -SHSN.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT AND SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

SUN NGT AND MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






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