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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 261143
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION 
TODAY...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY IN NEW YORK. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR EASTER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO FIGHT VERY
DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK...FEEDING IN FROM ARCTIC HIGH IN QUEBEC /TEMPERATURES THERE
ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS MORNING/. GRIDS
TWEAKED FOR DETAILS BUT OVERALL ON TRACK WITH JUST AN INCH OR SO A
DRY FLUFF THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FOCUS ON THE FINGER LAKES
REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE NOR
EASTER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SEE BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS CLIPPER REACHING COAST TONIGHT AND UNDERGOING
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS INTO A STRONG NOR EASTER...MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OF COURSE THE LARGER PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SKIM SOME
OF OUR AREA. WINTER STORM WARNING HOISTED FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-DELAWARE-OTSEGO.

IN THE MEANTIME...AT 415 AM...THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES...WITH SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW
NOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND EDGING NORTHWARD...JUST REACHING AVOCA
IN THE PAST HOUR AS WELL AS WELLSVILLE-OLEAN IN WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NY. IT IS RUNNING INTO VERY DRY AIR AS IT DOES SO. EXPECTING
1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM THE SYSTEM AS IT HEADS TO THE
COAST THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO COOPERSTOWN
LINE DUE TO EASTERLY FEED OF VERY DRY AIR AROUND ARCTIC HIGH IN
QUEBEC. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEFORMATION ZONE
FORMING ON WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER CIRCULATION...EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF. AMOUNTS
THERE TODAY INTO EVENING MAY BE MORE LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES /STEUBEN-
YATES- SENECA/...NOT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS
CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...SO THE
SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...PRONE TO SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING AS
WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE... 
SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND EASTERN JOG TO THE TRACK IS NOTED IN
MODELS FOR THE NOR EASTER. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT...AND
REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION...YET ALSO HAS DROPPED OFF
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS
DESPITE THIS STORM BEING ALMOST UPON US. STICKING POINT SEEMS TO
BE HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF...AND THUS WHEN THAT
UPPER LOW CAN PULL IN THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THE
EARLIER THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER OUR HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL IN
POCONOS-CATSKILLS.

IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DESPITE LOWER EXPECTED
SNOW TOTALS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTIES FOR 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. REPLACED REMAINDER OF WATCH WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FOR BOTH THE
WARNING AND ADVISORY...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AFFECTED COUNTIES. THOUGH THE WARNING/ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 1 PM TODAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAIN IMPACT
TIME WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BOTH IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL
RATES AND INCREASING WINDS CAUSING SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING OF THE
DRY FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY-WARNING
COUNTIES...TO AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING
AND ESPECIALLY THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE TO UTICA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH
WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO BLOWING DRIFTING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TUESDAY WHICH WILL CHANGE
THE ORIENTATION OF DRIFTING SNOW ON ROADWAYS.

STORM PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCLUDING SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION...WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES 
TO PERSIST FOR A TIME...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

HIGHS MAINLY UPPER TEENS-MID 20S TUESDAY...AND LOWS SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW
WIND CHILL TO EVENTUALLY REACH SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
140 PM EST UPDATE... 
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE
TO START OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUNSHINE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS CLIPPER WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURS AND
BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DECIDED TO
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AND MAY CREATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER. THE FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD THE LARGER
DISCREPANCIES THERE ARE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE... THUS DECIDED TO
TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND KEPT LOW POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM... BUT WILL
MODERATE ON THURS AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON TILL ANOTHER COLD FROM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
AND ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED.

SNOW HAS ARRIVED AT KBGM AND KAVP AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH. WHILE WE DON'T EXPECT MODERATE OR HEAVY SNOW, WIDESPREAD
1SM TO 2SM IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS. SOME IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBGM AND KITH DUE TO THE ELEVATION OF THE TERMINAL. I
DID USE A TEMPO GROUP AT KELM AND KAVP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A LULL FROM TIME TO TIME. 

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...IFR VSBYS IN SNOW.
TUE...IFR VSBYS IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY KAVP. MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE IN
SCT. LIGHT SNOW.
 
TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








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