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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 010359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HV OPTED TO LWR POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT. WK WV LOCATED
OVR SEPA MAY SPREAD AN ISOLD SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLES INTO NEPA
TONIGHT. THUS HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC ACRS FAR SE ZONES WITH AREAS
OF FOG EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A 
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURRING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPMNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON'T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP






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