Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Binghamton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBGM 300007
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
807 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE REGION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE
DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA AND CHEMUNG BASINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING S/SW FLOW.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL DARK. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE HIGHEST READINGS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK SFC TROF THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY EVENING
AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES START ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SLIGHT CHC/CHC NE PA. 
AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
RATHER JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL AS FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY HEALTHY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ALTHOUGH CAPE LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INCLUDED LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY WITH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD DRY AS WAVE PASSES.

MONDAY...BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHC POPS DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR RDG OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW
MOVG INTO THE GTLAKES EARLY NXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FNTL SYSTEM WILL MOV
THRU THE RGN IN THE TUE/TUE NGT TIME FRAME WITH SHRA/TSRA. HIGH
PRES IS XPCTD TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA BY WED. SOME TIMING DIFFS
AFTER THIS POINT W/RESPECT TO NXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. WPC GUIDANCE
LOOKED GOOD BUT WE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS..1) SHOWED MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLDS WITH MIDWEEK FROPA, AND 2) LIMITED POPS TO HI CHC
GIVEN WE'RE STILL SVRL DAYS OUT. SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KELM AGAIN TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF IFR VISBYS. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT IS... WILL A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LOW DECK DEVELOPING
BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING AS BELIEVE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE FURTHER TOWARDS
THE WEST THAN GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT. DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
SCT MVFR DECK IN THE TAF ATTM. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH THE REGION TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR LATE IN HZ/BR. 

SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy