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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220620
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE COAST OF MARYLAND TOMORROW
EVENING...THEN NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS...COOL
AIR... AND PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM UPDATE... 
VERY AMPLIFIED DIGGING TROUGH HAS NOW CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW...THE
CENTER OF WHICH IS DESCENDING UPON VIRGINIA...AND IN RESPONSE
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FROM CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BECOME STACKED THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL HALT MOVEMENT OF BOTH...LEAVING US STUCK IN THE
MOIST AND COOL NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SYSTEM FOR A LONG
DURATION.

THROUGH TODAY...IN ADDITION TO A SOLID OVERCAST SKY...WAVES OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PEPPER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-81. TO THE WEST...THOUGH GLOOMY...MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THUS RAIN AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT...MOST PLACES ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH EVEN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

THEN TONIGHT...SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF 850MB WIND /AS IN 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OVER NEW ENGLAND/ WILL FURTHER INJECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
SYSTEM. THANKFULLY WITH OUR COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE
COLUMN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE INTO INCREASE
FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WEST OF I-81...RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY JUST BE A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH...BUT TO THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
CATSKILLS...QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL EASILY ATTAINABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE ON THE WAY. BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE
FOOTPRINT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EXPANSIVE...WITH A TRAIN OF
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO BERMUDA...NORTHWARD TO NOVA
SCOTIA...THEN COILED BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

GIVEN ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...VERY NARROW DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS...LOWER TO
MID 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN...PERSISTENT FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
HIGHER POPS AND QPF TO THE AREA. ATTM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER RAIN MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI AS THE LOW KIND OF BOTTOMS OUT NEAR CAPE COD.

LTR FRI...BLOCKING RDG TO THE NORTH FNLY BEGINS TO MVE OUT
ALLOWING THE LOW TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN AND SRN ZONES LATE IN THE PD. 

TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL GNRLY BE A BIT BLO NRML DURING THE
DAY...BUT MILDER AT NGT. THIS MAY ALLOW TEMPS ON AVG TO EVEN BE
SLGTLY ABV NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA AS THE FLOW BCMS MORE NRLY TO NWLY...XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-
ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO
AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG
AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS
TO BE AT BGM AND AVP THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY
LATE AFTN AND SPCLY TNGT. NELY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NRLY 10
KTS BY MID MORNING AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...






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