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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 300656
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY, AND THEN A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AS OF YET. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MODEST K INDICES (25
TO 30) FORECAST BY THE GFS. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOR
THUNDER MAINLY FOR SWRN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND NAM HANG ON TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT GUT FEELING IS THIS IS OVERDONE. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT COOL SHOWERS WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND UPPER WAVE ARE SLOW TO MOVE ON WEDNESDAY
SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, ESPECIALLY EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, AND THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION. 

RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RDG AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE FAIR
NIGHT THU NGT. ALL THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LVL TROF WILL PASS THRU NY AND PA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST...THE EURO IS THE FASTEST AND THE
CMC ALSO HAS PRECIP AFFECTING NY AND PA FRIDAY. SO WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT PASSES BY FOR SATURDAY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME LINGERING SHRA WITH CHC TO
SLGHT CHC SHRA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY CUD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHRA IN NC NY DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM
LES SHRA SINCE H850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C AS PER EURO.
THE GFS IS QUICKER LIFTING THE COLDER AIR AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OUT ON SUNDAY BUT HAS SOME WEAK WAA SHRA SO AGAIN SOME POPS ARE IN
ORDER FOR SHRA NC NY.

HAVE POPULATED EXTENDED WITH HPC AND WILL COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO'S FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUBLISHING AND SENDING TO
NDFD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUE UPDATE... LOCALLY DENSE VLY FOG WILL BE IN PLACE ACRS THE
TWIN TIERS AGN EARLY THIS MRNG. THUS...WE ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDS
AT KELM...PERHAPS FALLING BLO AIRPORT MINS AT TIMES. MORE BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO PSBL TWDS DAYBREAK AT KRME AND
KITH...WITH PATCHY LWR CIGS AND BR. 

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...VFR SHOULD BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD. HIT AND MISS SHWRS...AND PSBLY AN
EMBEDDED TSRA...ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER CNY/NE PA LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVE. FOR NOW...WE'VE INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP
TO COVER THIS SITN. 

LTR THIS EVE...DEPENDING ON RAINFALL COVERAGE AND THE DEGREE OF
CLEARING...AREAS OF FOG/LWR CIGS COULD DVLP. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WE'VE GONE WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 03Z. 

OUTLOOK...

WED TO FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY KELM. ALSO...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
-SHRA WED AFTN. 

FRI NGT...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA. 

SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...MLJ






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