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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 281856
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE: UPGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO A WARNING
OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND REPORTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SHRP UPR WV OVER WRN NY ATTM MVG SLOWLY
EAST. SOME LGT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHWRS ALONG AND AHD OF THE UPR
TROF MVG INTO THE FCST AREA ATTM. AS THE WV PULLS OUT...A WELL
ALIGNED WLY FLOW DVLPS AVERAGING ARND 280 DEGREES. WITH RSNBL
INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE AND A FAIRLY HI INV...SINGLE BAND LE
EVENT IS XPCTD TO DVLP OFF ONTARIO INTO THE NRN ZONES. MVMT OF THE
UPR WV HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN XPCTD SO THE BAND HAS NOT YET
DVLPD...BUT THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW IT TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR...LWRD INV...AND STRENGTHENING LL SHEAR
WEAKENS THE BAND. HAVE GONE AHD AND XTNDD THE ADVISORY THRU 00Z TO
CVR THE XPCTD BAND TIMING.

SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN EDGED UP A BIT...AND OF COURSE XTNDD INTO
THE EVE. TOTAL AMTS NOT ALL THAT MUCH MORE SINCE THE ONSET IS
DELAYED...AND BAND SHD CONT TO DRFT NORTH...ESP NEAR THE END OF
THE ADVISORY PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SVRL FACTORS BRING AN END TO THE LE BAND IN THE FCST AREA
INCLUDING SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND A MORE SWLY FLOW DVLPG AHD OF
THE NEXT WV. OVRNGT HRS SHD GNRLY BE DRY OTR THAN THE CHANCE OF A
BIT OF ERIE LE AND WEAK OVERRUNNING PCPN INTO SAT MRNG.

GNRLY OVC SAT AS THE WAA CONTS AND STILL THE CHANCE OF SOME LGT
PCPN...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES WITH STRONGER UVM AND SOME
LAKE MOISTURE AVBL. GNRL WSW FLOW WITH POCKETS OF MID LVL MOISTURE
AND LIFT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVC SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LGT PCPN. TEMPS ON SUN HI ENUF FOR FOR ANY PCPN TO BE LIQUID.
TEMPS SUN WILL RISE TO TO ABV NRML...BUT GUID MAY NOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTING FOR THE SNOW CVR...ESP OVER THE ERN ZONES SO HAVE GONE
SLGTLY COOLER IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THEN BY MID WEEK THE ECMWF/GFS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANED HEAVILY
ON THE ECMWF. 

PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST WITH STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NRN CWA BUT VERY DRY
AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL END ACTIVITY BY LATE NIGHT. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO NRN NEW
ENGLAND. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED, SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA PUSHING A WARM/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL
CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH P-TYPE BEING PRIMARILY SNOW
SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY WITH
SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT DUE TO DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE KRME/KSYR
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AT KRME, MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR/BELOW ALT MIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 02Z.
AT KSYR, FLURRIES WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH 22Z. REST OF TERMINALS WILL HAVE STRATO CU AROUND 4K FT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN THEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK WAA OCCURS. AS THE LOW VFR CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING A MID DECK WILL DEVELOP FOLLOWED BY CIGS
AROUND 4K FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WINDS NW AT 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

TUE...VFR.

WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR 
     NYZ018-036-037.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






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