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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 011613
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1113 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING...TO NEAR LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
FOLLOW THE SYSTEM INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO ONLY
COSMETIC UPDATES WERE MADE TO TEMP AND WX GRIDS ATTM.

RGNL RADAR LOOP IS BEARING OUT WHAT MANY OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE
SHOWN...IN THAT OUR EARLIER BURST OF SNOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A
RELATIVE LULL EARLY THIS AFTN...AS LOW-LVL JET FORCING AND UPR-
LVL SUPPORT TEMPORARILY WANE. PRIND STILL ARE THAT SNOWFALL INTENSITY
WILL PICK UP AGN LTR THIS AFTN OR EARLY IN THE EVE (GENERALLY BY
22-00Z)...AS FORCED LIFT INCREASES AGN WITHIN THE EXIT RGN OF AN UPR-
LVL JET STREAK...AND ALSO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRNT. TO COVER THIS SCENARIO...HAVE SIMPLY WORDED THE WX
GRIDS AS "OCNL LGT SNOW" FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. NO CHGS WERE MADE
TO SNOWFALL TOTALS OR THE HAZARD GRIDS...AND WE SIMPLY FRESHENED
UP THE WORDING IN THE ADVISORY STATEMENT.

PREV DISC... OPEN WV WITH A NARROW SFC TROF PUSHING THRU THE
REGION TODAY. SHEARED SYSTEM HAS LIMITED FRCG AND JUST A GENTLE
BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE DAY. MODEL QPF OF ARND A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN THE LGT RETURNS
SEEN ON THE RADAR MOSAIC AND THE VERY DRY AMBIENT LWR LVLS. WRKG
IN FAVOR OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS IS THE THE LIFT IS WELL CNTRD IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMP ZONE. UNLESS OTR OFFICES FEEL
STRONGLY...WILL JUST MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX AND POPS
GRIDS AT THIS TIME AND AWAIT THE DVLPMT OF THE PCPN.

SENSIBLE WX FROM THE SHRT TERM MODELS SHOW AN INITIAL BURST OF
PCPN THIS MRNG FLWD BY A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PCPN. THEN...AHD OF
THE NARROW SFC TROF LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ANOTHER PD OF HEAVIER
PCPN SEEMS LIKELY. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BHD THE SFC TROF LTR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNGT BRINGING A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF THE PCPN.
WNW FLOW MAY DVLP SOME LGT LE SNOW LATE TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BLDS IN MON BRINGING AN END TO THE LE AND SETTLING OVRHD
FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG.

FIRST LAKE RUNNER IN QUITE SOME TIME APRCHS FOR TUE AS A WV DVLPS
A SFC LOW AND ZIPS IT THRU THE MIDDLE LAKES. SYSTEM DVLPS A STRONG
SW FLOW WAA PTRN WHICH QUICLY BRINGS CLDS AND EVENTUALLY PCPN INTO
THE AREA TUE AFNT AND TUE NGT. PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION INTO TUE EVE BUT THIS STRONG SW FLOW QUICKLY WARMS A
LYR ABV H8 TO NEARLY 10C IN THE SRN TIER AND NE PA. HWVR...OUR
LONG LIVED COLD AIR STUBBORNLY HOLDS ON BLO H8 SETTING UP THE
CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT LATE TUES NGT. IT/S DOUBTFUL
THAT TEMPS AT THE SFC WILL RISE ABV FREEZING...EVEN IN THE CNTRL
SRN TIER...THRU 12Z WED. 

ADJUSTED THE TEMP PROFILES AND PCPN TYPE TO REFLECT THE FCST THAT
COLD AIR WILL HOLD FAST INTO EARLY WED AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM 
PORTION OF THE AFD WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY BY THURS 
MORNING. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THURS NIGHT. THESE 
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE  
BEHIND THE SECOND SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
THEN BUILD BACK TO THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET 
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO LOOK WELL BELOW THE 
SEASONAL NORM... THIS WILL CONTINUE THE COLD TREND INTO MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND WILL DO SO
SHORTLY AT KSYR AND KRME. IFR VSBYS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. IN
GENERAL IFR VSBYS AND LOW END MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS AT KBGM WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z-06Z TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM NEAR
KELM TO KITH/KSYR/KRME WHERE A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE SNOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. BEST SHOT
AT ALT MINS WILL COME BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z, ESPECIALLY AT KBGM AND
KAVP.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 7 TO 12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS VEER INTO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS. 

.OUTLOOK...


EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW CENTRAL NY.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-022-
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN






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