Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Boston, MA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE THEN BRINGS RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A DRYING TREND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER WILL GET UP TO 850 MB WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE 1-2C AROUND 18Z. THIS SUPPORTS MAXES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD COOLING
SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DEAMPLIFIES A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENG. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
AND TRACKING NE TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK DURING SAT. BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...BUT MODEST ATLC INFLOW AND DECENT MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING FROM SW
TO NE. RAINFALL THROUGH SAT EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 0.50" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

DRY SLOT LIFTS NWD INTO THE REGION BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP
BECOMING SHOWERY AND A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS S OF NEW ENG BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
THUNDER OVER THE ISLANDS SAT AFTERNOON AT THE EDGE OF THE DRY
SLOT. A CHILLY DAY SAT WITH E FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT INTO THE 50S IN THE CT
VALLEY. GUSTY E/NE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS SAT.

ROBUST MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE APPROACHING NEW ENG FROM THE GT
LAKES BY LATE SAT AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS BUT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER MID-WEEK

25/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. 
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME DISCREPANCIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE 
PERIOD.  A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN 
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW STICKING AROUND OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAS BEEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW EXACTLY THE BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT PATTERN.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION COULD SEE A FEW OF THESE
RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLDER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS
AND ANY SNOW THAT FALLS SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN LOOKS
TO DEVELOP. WHERE EXACTLY THE BLOCKED PATTERN SETS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF WEATHER WE ARE LOOKING AT. AT THIS
POINT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS START TO TRANSITION OUT OF THE 
BLOCKING PATTERN ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER.  
HOWEVER...WITH MODELS TYPICALLY TRANSITIONING BACK INTO A MORE 
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MORE QUICKLY THAN ACTUALLY
OCCURS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

TODAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.  

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR IN THE EVENING THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR DURING SAT. RAIN OVERSPREADS
WESTERN CT/MA 03Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN MA 06Z-12Z. RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERY PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF
A TSTM SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE ISLANDS. E/NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT ACK DURING SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG. LOW
PROBABILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IN
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING TO S IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER EASTERN WATERS THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

A PERIOD WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EXPECTED OVER THE S COASTAL
WATERS SAT AS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS...INITIALLY
E/SE WINDS THEN BACKING TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS REDUCED
IN RAIN AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. 

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS 
INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE 
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY...PARTICULARLY ON THE OUTER 
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH MIN RH NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy