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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 230640
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STILL HAVE SOME RATHER LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FROST ADVISORY
CLOSELY. IF DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S...THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION AT THE
LAST MINUTE BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT THE TIME.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE  
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK 
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK 
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT 
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT 
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN 
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS 
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE 
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM 
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH 
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS 
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY 
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER 
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.  

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.  
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE 
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE 
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON 
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD 
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL 
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS 
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO 
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. 

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN 
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY 
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR 
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU 
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT 
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR 
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY 
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER 
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF 
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK



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