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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 161746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
146 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PROVIDING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND A HINT
OF SPRING WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN A STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRI INTO SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS SNE WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WIND. LOTS OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK. MILDEST TEMPS AROUND 50 WILL BE IN THE CT
VALLEY COOLING TO MID 40S E COASTAL MA...BUT CLOSER TO 40 OVER
CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

MOISTURE FROM APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING AFTER 06Z FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12Z. ENTIRE COLUMN IS WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ALL RAIN. ONLY FORECAST WRINKLE COULD BE IF A FEW INTERIOR
LOCATIONS DECOUPLE AND WITH INITIAL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE A FEW
SPOTS MAY DIP AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A TIME TONIGHT. THUS
VERY LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE ALL OF THE AREA EXPERIENCES AN ALL RAIN
EVENT.

GIVEN ALL GUIDANCE HAS MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY 12Z WE WENT WITH LOW
LIKELY POPS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
ARCTIC FRONT.

TUESDAY...

PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THEN MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND REPLACED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING. ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS SLATED FOR 5 PM TO 8 PM.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS LATE IN THE DAY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND POSSIBLY UPWARDS TO 55 MPH. AS THE
EVENT NEARS WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
* COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI AND SAT BUT 
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARDS THE END 
OF THE WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THIS STORM AS MODELS VARY ON 
THEIR TRACK FOR THE LOW.  OVERALL...A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE 
LOOKS TO WORK FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.  SPECIAL ATTENTION PAID TO 
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
ANOMALOUSLY COLD /2 STD BELOW NORMAL/ AS WELL AS POPS AND TEMPS FOR 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MUCH 
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S ON 
WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 30S ON THURSDAY.  COUPLED WITH WINDS 
GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH...IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

FRIDAY...WHILE THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A COASTAL STORM WILL 
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY...THEY DIFFER 
QUITE A BIT ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.  THEY RANGE FROM TRACKING 
OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /BRINGING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN/SNOW TO 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/ TO WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK 
/LITTLE TO NOTHING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS A VERY LOW 
CONFIDENCE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.  THE LIKELY SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN 
THE MIDDLE WHICH WOULD STILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW TO MUCH OF 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 

SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DEPENDS GREATLY ON HOW FRIDAY 
TURNS OUT.  THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.  THIS WILL BRING 
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BUT HOW THIS WILL 
INTERACT WITH THE POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE 
LOW GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF 
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PROVIDING 
DRY...SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT SW TOWARD
EVENING. 

TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG 08-12Z.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MORNING SHOWERS/PATCHY FOG...THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR AFT 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WIND SHIFT TO NW WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DEVELOPING. 

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS
TO 40-45 KT POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS 
OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...

NNW WINDS 15-25 KT THIS MORNING DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TONIGHT...

WINDS BECOME SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS
TOWARD MORNING. 

TUESDAY...

ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THE AREA WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS LATE
TUE WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KT /NW GALES/! RAIN SHOWERS
REDUCE VSBY IN THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY GALES.  THIS WILL KEEP SEAS 
IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER WATERS.
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  A COASTAL STORM MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL 
WATERS LATE FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
*** SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD FOR BOSTON ***

2.9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL HAS BEEN RECORDED AT LOGAN AIRPORT SUNDAY BRINGING
THE SEASONAL TOTAL TO 108.6 INCHES WHICH BREAKS THE ALL TIME SEASONAL
SNOW RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107.6 INCHES SET IN THE
WINTER OF 95-96. RECORD KEEPING BEGAN AT BOSTON IN 1891.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
CLIMATE...



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