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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 230836
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

415 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK INTO
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NH...SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. DETAILS
ON THE INDIVIDUAL STORM HAZARDS ARE BELOW.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION. 

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY. 

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT 
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM 
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE. 
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE 
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH 
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.  
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT 
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A 
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT 
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN 
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO 
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER 
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF 
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS 
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE 
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT. 

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



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