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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 230747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING POTENT SHORTWAVE. TEMPS AT
500 MB COOL TO -26C UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR MOCLDY SKIES TODAY AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACTING ON THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECENT
850-500 MB QG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND BEST
FORCING. TOTAL TOTALS SPIKE IN THE THE 50S SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM AND GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS SMALL HAIL IS A
POSSIBILITY.  

2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.  

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH 
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN 
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE 
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK 
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.  
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE 
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL 
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE 
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH 
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. 
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH 
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH 
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT 
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN 
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING 
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST 
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF 
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN 
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING 
WEATHER. 

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE 
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED 
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY 
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS 
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY 
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...KJC



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