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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 210806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE
WARMER ON TUESDAY...WET WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...EXPECT BRISK AND
COOLER CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
WET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
APPEARS THE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
TRENDS AT 07Z. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
CALM OR LIGHT/VRBL WINDS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRES RIDGE NOSES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO SLOWLY PUSH S DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE LIGHT
WINDS...LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL SET UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT S-SW WINDS UP TO PICK UP TO AROUND
10 MPH. TEMPS WILL RISE NICELY INLAND AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9C TO
+11C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS
TOPPING OFF IN THE 60S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 70 ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...
THOUGH IF THE SEA BREEZE KICKS OUT FAST ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
MILDER TEMPS COULD REACH THERE LATE IN THE DAY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE FINALLY SETTLES S OF THE REGION...SW WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPS
TO ONLY FALL BACK TO THE 40S...WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUESDAY...
SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL SIGNALING LOW PRES PUSHING E...APPROACHING
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OP RUNS SUGGESTING THAT
THE PRECIP WILL TRY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT...CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SCT SHOWERS TO PUSH ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR MOST AREAS...BUT THINK BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY TO THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO NE CT/W RI. 

MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AS SW WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE
60S ONCE AGAIN...WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...THOUGH
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S COAST....CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - COLD FRONT AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR LATE TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT  
 - BREEZY AND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE  
 - ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

A CONSENSUS BLEND IS PREFERRED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS MASS 
FIELDS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD BALANCE ALBEIT SOME AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES. 
THEREAFTER YOU ARE IN ONE OF TWO CAMPS TOWARDS THE LATE-WEEK: EITHER 
AN AMPLIFYING NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND 
SUBSEQUENT SLOWER WAVE PROGRESSION...OR A FAST-STRETCHED ZONAL-FLOW 
REGIME. PREFER THE FORMER WITH THE 20.12Z GFS SHOWING A TIGHTENING 
CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREFERRED THIS 
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD LEND TO THE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE 
NE CONUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER. 

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION TOWARDS THE LATER HALF 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUFFICIENT LIFT/DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THOUGH CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE
ON THE LOW-END OF THRESHOLDS. SOME HINT PER THE 20.12Z NAM OF
SHOWERS BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND PERHAPS THIS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO LINGERING HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR AS WELL AS A
WEAKENING JET STRUCTURE ALOFT. BUT FEEL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ASCENT
OF PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TO YIELD THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AGAINST AN INTENSIFYING LOW 
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. BLUSTERY NW FLOW AND LIKELY SCATTERED-BROKEN 
CLOUD DECKS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER. H925 
WINDS OF 30-40 KTS COUPLED WITH GOOD BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP TO 
H85. MAY NEED CONSIDER WIND-ADVISORIES CONSIDERING THE LEVEL OF COLD 
ADVECTION ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE LATE-APRIL SUN. 

CLOUDS CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE 
OF HIGH PRES. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL 
LATE. IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BUT BELOW WIND-ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. 
 
THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY WITH RH-VALUES LIKELY AROUND 30-PERCENT OVER 
THE INTERIOR...THE REGION IS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR PRECIP FOR THE MONTH 
OF APRIL. THUS AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE 
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ATTENDANT SHOWERY WEATHER 
SUBSEQUENT OF STRONG SW GULF-MOISTURE FLOW UNDERGOING BROAD-SCALE 
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WARM-FRONT BENEATH INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF THUNDER THOUGH ONCE AGAIN CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE ON THE 
LOW-END OF THRESHOLDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING 
THE EVENING PERIOD.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

PENDING BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY...A SERIES OF COLD-FRONTS WILL 
USHER RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALBEIT MOISTURE DEPRIVED...SO 
EXPECT LIGHT ACTIVITY. BREEZY NW FLOW TO THE REAR RESULTS IN THE 
RETURN OF COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN WILL START TO PICK UP OUT OF
THE SE-S UP TO AROUND 10 KT. HOWEVER...EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO KICK
IN ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S-SW WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT

TUESDAY...VFR. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR ALONG S COAST
AFTER 20Z IN PATCHY FOG AND SCT SHOWERS. SW WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY
ACROSS E MA/RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE ANTICIPATED BY
16Z-18Z TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING TERMINALS. EXPECT LOW END VFR / MVFR
OVERNIGHT. SHRA. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. BREEZY SW FLOW...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND...BACKING NW AND INCREASING.
IMPROVING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS FOR WEDNESDAY. SKC THURSDAY. BLUSTERY 
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS. 

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOWERING CIGS TOWARDS LATE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG 
WITH INCREASING SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. S WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ON THE EASTERN
OPEN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AROUND 15Z TO 20Z-22Z.

TUESDAY...S-SW WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 20 KT AS PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE. SEAS MAY REACH UP TO AROUND 5 FT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS LATE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS.
NO VISIBILITY ISSUES ANTICIPATED. GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO AROUND 25
KTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE WAVES BUILD UP TO 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACKING NW AND GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 KTS. WILL LIKELY NEED GALE FORCE WARNINGS FOR THE PERIOD.
WAVES BUILDING UP TO AROUND 7 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALES
SHOULD DROP OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY REQUIRING CONVERSION TO
SMALL CRAFT.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NW WINDS DIMINISHING AND TURNING OUT OF THE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE 
ENERGY TO DISSIPATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD DROP OFF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MAINSTEM CT RIVER.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED ALONG CT RIVER AT...

HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



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