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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 221210
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN ISSUE IS TO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY 
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND 
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND... 
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING SW
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS. 

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. 

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING 
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE... 
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS 
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR. 

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY 
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT. 

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS 
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS 
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS. 
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. 

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE 
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



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