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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 292340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
740 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A 
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN SOME 
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A 
MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH...BUT IT WILL REMAIN 
DRY.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE 
USUAL SPOTS AS TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS.  LOW TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER 
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF 
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE 
OVER THE REGION.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR AND WE EXPECT 
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE 
AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING 
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA.  LOW PRESSURE 
OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK FRONT THROUGH 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  BUT THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF THIS WILL 
BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.  OVERNIGHT 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL

DETAILS...

ALL MODELS FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE 
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH IN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  OUTSIDE OF ANY 
BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL DISCUSS BELOW...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY 
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED AND 
POSSIBLY THU IF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF A BIT. ITS POSSIBLE 
SOME LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST 
FLOW ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW TENDS KEEP 
DEWPOINTS BELOW 70...BUT CAN SOMETIMES ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO OVER 
ACHIEVE A BIT SO SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH. 

THE ONLY TWO CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND THEIR 
AFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOST GUIDANCE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...SENDING A 
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE.  MAIN AFFECTS WILL BE 
FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE PORTIONS OF THE COAST MAY 
NOT BREAK 80. WHILE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING LATER NEXT WEEK 
WEEK...APPEARS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND 
BRIEF COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD 
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A SPOT 
SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE 
BETTER CHANCE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL/POSITION OF 
BACKDOOR FRONT THU OR FRI.  BUT AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TENDS TO 
LIMIT CONVECTION SO NOT SOLD ON ANYTHING YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR OTHER THEN VERY LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR 
FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIT
OR MISS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME VERY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING 
PATCHY GROUND IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS
AND WAVES LOW. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  VISIBILITY SHOULD BE 
GOOD AS WELL...SO NICE BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK



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