000
FXUS61 KBOX 251958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW
DEPARTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDER. EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...25/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS OF 3 PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WAS IN THE GULF OF MAINE JUST EAST OF PORTLAND. A DRY SLOT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. REGARDLESS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THIS AREA.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA...15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND!

TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...SHIFTING
THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR EXISTS AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FT. GIVEN
THAT ITS LATE MAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ON THE GROUND
ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. ELEVATED SURFACES
SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS
TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MIGRATES NORTHEAST 
THROUGH THE MARITIMES.  UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS 
EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  PACIFIC UPPER LOW DIGS OVER 
THE ROCKIES MIDWEEK...THEN EJECTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 
NEXT WEEKEND.

MODEL PREFERENCES... UPPER CONTOUR FIELDS ARE SIMILAR FOR MUCH OF 
THE WEEK.  MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EJECTING PACIFIC LOW 
UPSTREAM LATE WEEK.  WE USED BLENDS OF HPC/GMOS AND GFS/ECMWF DATA 
AS AVAILABLE.

THE DAILIES... 

MONDAY-TUESDAY... UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY BUT STILL CYCLONIC 
FLOW ALOFT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.  LIMITED MOISTURE AROUND 
850 MB SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT DEEP 
ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWERS.  MONDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH AT WORST 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE TEMPERATURES.  BOTH 
MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 70S PVD-BDL AND LOW
70S BOS...WHILE MODEL TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT
VALUES OF 65-70. EITHER THE MODEL TEMPS ALOFT ARE WRONG...THE
PROJECTED MIXING DEPTH IS WRONG...OR MOS IS WRONG. WE FAVORED A
BLEND THAT EDGES TOWARD THE COOLER VALUES WITH A RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...DEWPOINTS 35-40.  COULD 
BE SOME FROST IN THE BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS BUT ELSEWHERE TEMPS 
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ALOFT WARMING...VALUES 
AROUND 9-10C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 75-80. COOLER AT THE COAST AS THE 
LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES.

WEDNESDAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE REGION.  
WARM FRONT REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARMER AIR MOVES 
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL 
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...AND STABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT POTENTIAL 
FOR THUNDER AS WELL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS 
AROUND 16C.  DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  MIXING 
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...DEWPOINTS POINT 
TO HUMID AIR WITH NIGHT MINS IN THE 60S.  SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  BUT THE 
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY KEEP THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND 
PRECLUDE SHOWERS.  SO THE PCPN FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE BY NEXT 
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT.

TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT. IFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANT EAST OF A WESTERLY RI TO ORANGE MA
LINE WITH MVFR TO ISOLATED VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THIS LINE. TIMING
OF SHOWERS...AND THE SUBSEQUENT REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY IS DIFFICULT
TO TIME EXACTLY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. SHOWERS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS OF SHOWERS/FOG AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERALLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR POSSIBLE 
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.  LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ROTATES IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AT SOME POINT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TAKE AWHILE TO KICK UP ON THE EASTERN WATERS SO ADVISORIES BEGIN
LATER OVER THOSE INTERIOR ZONES WHERE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SO HAVE OPTED
FOR GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
BUSIER HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
THRESHOLDS.  SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE OF THE 
CAPE AND ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE OF THE 
CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-6 FOOT 
VALUES ON THE OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS 
AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 12.2 FT
WILL OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. AFTER HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WAS ABOUT A HALF FOOT OF SURGE LINGERING AT
BOSTON. WITH ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO 0.7 FT SURGE...SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT IT COULD REACH 13 FEET EVEN WITH MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY BEING A MARGINAL EVENT BUT OPTED TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
ZONES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SPLASHOVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL CLIMATE RECORDS COULD BE REACHED OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE...AND WORCESTER WERE SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...HARTFORD HAS
TIED ITS RECORD LOW MAX OF 48 SO FAR. IF THEIR TEMPERATURE GOES UP
EVEN A DEGREE THE RECORD SET IN 1967 WILL HOLD. HOWEVER...THINK
THERES A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL TIE THAT RECORD IN HARTFORD.  

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOW AT WORCESTER...34 DEGREES...WOULD BREAK
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 35 DEGREES SET IN 1992. THE FORECAST
LOWS AT PROVIDENCE...HARTFORD...AND BOSTON ARE WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES
OF THE PREVIOUS RECORDS /SEE BELOW/.

HARTFORD -    FORECAST LOW - 39  RECORD LOW - 36 (1992) 
PROVIDENCE -  FORECAST LOW - 38  RECORD LOW - 35 (1972) 
BOSTON -      FORECAST LOW - 41  RECORD LOW - 39 (1882)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY 
     FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR 
     ANZ230-231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RLG
CLIMATE...RLG