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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 012122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAY
LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE COAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS ANOTHER DOSE OF VERY COLD AIR STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL TODAY AS ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. A FEW SCT CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BUT
OVERALL A QUIET DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY FROM A
VERY CHILLY MORNING WITH HIGHS TOUCHING 32F HERE IN TAUNTON AND IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. THIS IS ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS WE HAVE
SEEN WITHIN THE PAST WEEK AND COULD BE THE WARMEST THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHLIGHTS... 

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO
  PTYPE ISSUES

OVERVIEW...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROGRESSIVE BUT RATHER POTENT
MID LEVEL TROF WHICH MOVES EAST INTO SNE MON AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND
APPEARS TO JUMP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...TRACKING NEAR
OR JUST S OF LONG ISLAND TO ACK DURING MONDAY. WITH ARCTIC HIGH
IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE BUT
WARMING ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR THE S
COAST. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF WITH 0.75-1.00" WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE NEW ENG...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILE. NAM IS THE COLDEST BUT LIKELY A RESULT OF IT
BEING FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER WHILE
ECMWF A BIT WARMER AND ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST ALOFT. GIVEN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ALL MODELS SHOW WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER MOVING NORTH ALONG THE SNE COAST DURING MON. THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS DETERMINING HOW FAR N THE MIX LINE
GETS.

SYSTEM REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 700 MB AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL NEW
ENG LATE MON SO NOT LOOKING AT TYPICAL BANDING SIGNAL ASSOCD WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC STRONG
OVERRUNNING EVENT AS MILDER AIR AND MOISTURE OVERRUNS VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SNE WITH ARCTIC TO THE NORTH.

1) TIMING AND PTYPE

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CT VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL
QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. GOOD SNOW
GROWTH AROUND 12Z AND STRONG MID LEVEL OMEGA WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD FRONT END THUMP WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CLOSER TO THE S COAST MID/LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD. WE
BLENDED THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET BRIEFLY
GETTING TO MA/N RI BORDER BY MIDDAY BEFORE COLLAPSING SE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER S...DEEPER WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND POSSIBLY SOME
RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE ISLANDS. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT UNTIL EVENING FOR THE
OUTER/CAPE ISLANDS.

THIS IS STILL A VERY TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT SO PTYPE WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A MINOR SHIFT IN THE SFC AND 850 MB LOW TRACK.  

SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE MORNING AS
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SNOW GROWTH NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE...BUT STILL SOME DECENT SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. 

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WHERE DEFINITELY NO MIXING ISSUES. EXPECT SNOW ACCUM AROUND A
FOOT FOR THIS REGION...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER S ACROSS RI AND SE MA DUE TO MIXING ISSUES. WE HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE S COAST TO UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS MAY FALL SHORT OF 6
INCHES ON CAPE COD...BUT WE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING DUE TO
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME ICE. 

FOR THE ISLANDS...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ACCUM 2 TO 5 INCHES...LEAST ON NANTUCKET.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
MASS COAST MONDAY AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) TEMPS

A VERY STRONG COASTAL FRONT WILL SET UP DURING MONDAY WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS NORTH OF I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-495
WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE NUMBERS FAR N/NW MA...WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 30S SE MA. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE
COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE EVENING AS THE COASTAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPS PLUMMET.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... 

CONTOUR FIELDS TUESDAY SHOW A FLAT FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM GETS STITCHED TOGETHER FROM THREE PIECES: POLAR SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN CANADA...PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
ASHORE IN BC MONDAY...AND REMNANTS OF BAJA UPPER LOW EJECTING
EAST LATE TUESDAY. ALL THREE PHASE OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LATER...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVER
THE WEEKEND. TRAILING TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING JET AND APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

NORMAL CONTOUR HEIGHTS FOR JAN-FEB PERIOD ARE 5400-5450 METERS. 
FORECAST CONTOUR HEIGHTS ARE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL 
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. PAST THAT 
THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE 
DETAILS. WE USED A BLEND OF THE DATA.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE A DRY 
DAY. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH OVER-WATER 
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN AIR-WATER 
TEMP DELTA OF 18-20C TO MAINTAIN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST 
OUTSIDE OF OUTER CAPE COD IN THE MORNING BUT WITH A DIMINISHING 
TREND ALONG WITH THE WIND.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE EQUIVILENT TO -20C 
TO -24C...SUPPORTING CHILLY MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 
20S.

WEDNESDAY... AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. 
COLD FRONT THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND 
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TWO JET STREAMS IN PLACE 
WEDNESDAY ACTUALLY CLASH WEDNESDAY...LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 
SOUTHERN JET AND RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE NORTHERN JET...BUT MODELS 
SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALY ACROSS NORTHERN 
MASS TO EXPECT SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN 
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS COULD 
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. 

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE UPPER 
TROUGH PHASES AND DEEPENS. COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE OFFSHORE 
WATERS WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE COMBINED UPPER JET. 
THIS WOULD SUGGEST ONE OR MORE WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT 
AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN RI 
AND EASTERN MASS DURING THURSDAY. WE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SNOW 
SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. GENERAL SNOW TAPERS OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AS 
THE FRONT AND ITS WAVE MOVE FARTHER TO SEA. BUT COLD AIR IS DRAWN IN 
WITH AIR-WATER DELTA OF 18-20C AND STRONG GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST 
WINDS. SO EXPECT MORE OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP 
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FETCH THAT FAVORS HITS ON THE MID AND OUTER CAPE. 
THE GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO GENERATE SUB-ZERO WIND 
CHILLS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CHILLS OF 10 TO 15 
BELOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY WITH 
CLEAR SKIES INLAND AND LINGERING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW OVER OR JUST EAST 
OF OUTER CAPE COD. EASTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF 
SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR. THIS FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF NEW 
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP 
TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IF IT DOES...IT IS POSITIONED 
CORRECTLY TO FORM ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THAT LOW 
WOULD THEN MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AT THE END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD. 
AS THIS COMES AT THE END OF DAY SEVEN...WE WILL KEEP POPS JUST TO 
OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

BEFORE 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR
CIGS ACROSS N CT/RI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. 

VFR WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. IFR/LIFR IN
MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE MAY TRANSITION
TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY FROM HFD-PVD-PYM
SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS
TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT
ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA. SNOWFALL RATES WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1-2 INCH PER HOUR AND COULD BE AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER
HOUR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CANAL. 

MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING. 

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 
KNOTS IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE... MVFR OR BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. 
BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS NORTHERN MASS.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE... VFR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. MVFR 
OR BRIEF IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR EASTERN MASS AND RI.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT
EXPECT SCA WAVES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY WILL PERSIST.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP DURING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MA COASTAL
WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE COD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS MORNING...DIMINISHING 
BY AFTERNOON. SEAS START AT 5-9 FEET AND SHOULD SUBSIDE IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH AS THE 
WINDS ALSO DIMINISH. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE OUTER CAPE 
IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA BY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT RACE EAST FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES. EXPECT LESS WIND BUT ALSO REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW OR RAIN 
SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO 
NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  SEAS START 
THE DAY BELOW 5 FEET BUT THEN INCREASE TO 5-8 FEET ON THE OUTER 
WATERS AND ON RI SOUND BY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE 
NEEDED.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE 
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
MAY GENERATE FREEZING SPRAY BY THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. 
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEPARTING FRONT AND PASS EAST OF 
THE WATERS...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW...AND INCREASE 
THE WIND TO 25-30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY 
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY... NORTH WINDS REACHING 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AT NIGHT. SEAS 
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING 
AREAS OF LOWER VSBYS ON THE WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. A SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

*** POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE 
  MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE BUT NO 
  MAJOR PROBLEMS EXPECTED***

SEAS WILL NOT REALLY BE RAMPED UP IN TIME FOR THE MID TO LATE MONDAY 
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY 
BE ENOUGH EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND TO RESULT IN A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM 
SURGE.  ITS MARGINAL...BUT MAY SEE SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL 
FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE.  WHILE SIGNIFICANT 
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AREAS FROM HULL...TO SCITUATE...TO 
MARSHFIELD AND DUXBURY WERE HIT VERY HARD FROM LAST WEEK/S BLIZZARD. 
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY DELAY SOME OF THE CLEANUP AND 
REPAIRS ON GOING IN THAT REGION...SO FELT IT WAS WORTH ISSUING AN 
ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION.

THERE IS ANOTHER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE LATE MONDAY EVENING...BUT 
ITS A FOOT LOWER AND BY THEN WINDS ARE ALREADY OFFSHORE.  
THEREFORE...ITS REALLY JUST THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE THAT WERE 
CONCERNED ABOUT AND ANY ISSUES FROM THAT WILL LIKELY BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY 
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD 
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE CHILLY AS WELL...BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE RECORD COLDEST MAX
TEMPS FOR THE DATE.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881 
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961 
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971 
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON          14 SET IN 1917
PROVIDENCE      12 SET IN 1917
WORCESTER        8 SET IN 1955
WINDSOR LOCKS   12 SET IN 1917
BLUE HILL OBS    9 SET IN 1917

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ023-024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>022-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR MAZ016-
     019-022.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR 
     ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/KJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



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