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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 250546
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
146 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT THEN REBOUNDING
NICELY FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE
THEN BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS E OF NEW ENG WITH BACK EDGE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE
AND E COASTAL MA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEARING TAKING
PLACE. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. TEMPS NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO WE RAISED TEMPS AND DROPPED THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

REAL NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH STRONG APRIL
SUN ANGLE WARMING AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INLAND. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING SEABREEZES BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY
BY LATE APR STANDARDS AND CONSIDERING WHAT THE WEEKEND AND EXTENDED
FORECAST OFFERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ROBUST TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD AND ARRIVES HERE FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH PARENT LOW ENTERING WESTERN NY
EARLY SAT...WHILE SECONDARY LOW SPINS UP NEAR LONG ISLAND NY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA 8 PM TO 2 AM...THEN
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 2 AM TO 8 AM. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST ATLANTIC INFLOW AND JET DYNAMICS TOWARD 12Z
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...LOW CONF ON WASHOUT
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MID NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER THE EC IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE ON PUSHING OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN THEN THE GFS.
OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE ON THE ENSEMBLES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT SPREAD OUT. HOWEVER
WITH BOTH THE NAO AND AO FORECASTED TO BE NEGATIVE AND WITH THE
PNA EXPECTED TO BE MORE POSITIVE...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
OF A BLOCKING/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE 
REGION PUSHING A DOUBLE BARREL LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. 
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WHICH CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BY WOBBLING OVER THE 
MARITIMES INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE ROCKIES 
ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US 
BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING RIDGES BUILD 
STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US. 

DETAILS...
 
SATURDAY...
A DOUBLE BARROW LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AGREE THAT HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO GOOD ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME AND DESCENT
JET DYNAMICS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE
NW PORTION OF THE LOW. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION...ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP...MORE SHOWERY WEATHER... WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SO THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE
REGION LOSES THE GOOD MOISTURE PLUME HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE MAY MOVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. YET THE JET DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IN FAVOR FOR HEAVY RAIN...SO HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW. HOWEVER
FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE THE BETTER
PARAMETERS ARE LOCATED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES...EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON 
SATURDAY RESULTING IN A MUCH COOLER COAST THEN ORIGINALLY THOUGH. 
HAVE DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. HOWEVER ACROSS 
THE CT VALLEY...IF CLOUDS BREAK OUT THEN TEMPS COULD SOAR INTO THE 
MID 50S THANKS TO THE HIGH APRIL SUNSHINE.  ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE 
TRACK OF THE LOW COULD CAUSE CHANGES IN THE TEMPS. 

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE APPEARS THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS 
LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING OFFSHORE 
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INCREASING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. 

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO SET-UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID
TO PERHAPS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...APPEARS THAT A TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP. HOWEVER HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN EXACTLY EACH ROUND OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST WILL RESIDE. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT COOL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

TODAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.  

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR IN THE EVENING THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR DURING SAT. RAIN OVERSPREADS
WESTERN CT/MA 03Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN MA 06Z-12Z. RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERY PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF
A TSTM SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE ISLANDS. E/NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT ACK DURING SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WX
POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 PM UPDATE....

TONIGHT...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 34 KTS. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SITES STILL AT 33KTS. BECAUSE THE TREND IS
DOWNWARD DUE TO THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT DECIDED TO CONVERT
GALES TO SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS WELL AS INTO
TONIGHT. 

FRI...HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEABREEZES NEAR SHORE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

FRI NIGHT...RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. LOW RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH
WATERS. AS LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TOWARD SUNRISE SAT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY
BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS UP AS
WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 MPH. EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...



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