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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 252035
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. 

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... 
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH 
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER 
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE 
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND 
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY 
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES... 

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE 
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE 
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY 
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE 
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN. 
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES 
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS. 

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S 
EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS.  ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE 
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE 
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS 
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT 
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND 
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS 
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE 
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO 
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO 
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE 
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW 
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. 
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDENCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30 ALONG 
THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT 
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF 
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S 
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH 
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS 
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR 
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. 

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING 
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL 
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. 
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40 
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE. 

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT 
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS 
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS 
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON 
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY 
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ230>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



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