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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 232316
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN MA AND RI...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN THE SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUED IN THESE BANDS
OF SHOWERS. IT WAS STILL QUITE GUSTY IN THE EAST WITH WINDS
GUSTING PAST 35 MPH RIGHT AT THE COAST. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THIS
EVENING A BIT OVER CT AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND 
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN 
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE 
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR 
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE 
REGION. 

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE 
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT 
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE 
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS 
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE 
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE 
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES 
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON 
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM 
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. 
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS 
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE 
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN 
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS 
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN 
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND 
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX 
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE 
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY. 
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD 
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR 
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM 
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED. 
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO 
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND 
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE 
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW 
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF 
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE 
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT 
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD/GAF
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/GAF
AVIATION...JWD/GAF/HR
MARINE...JWD/GAF/HR
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD



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