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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 201550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1050 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY MORE BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1045 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
12Z OBSERVED DOWN STREAM SOUNDING FROM OKX INDICATES MODEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INCREASED
HIGHS BY A FEW DEGS GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS. INTERESTING NEAR SHORE
BUOYS AND TIDE GAGES INDICATE WATER TEMPS IN THE U40S...HOWEVER
OFFSHORE BUOYS CONSIDERABLY WARMER /TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
WITH BUOY 44097 SOUTH OF BID REPORTING A WATER TEMP OF 56! THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE L50S ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH ACK
ALREADY AT 52!

ENJOY THE MILDER TEMPS AND SUNSHINE AS MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SNE THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD SW LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OCEAN TO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MOCLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...BUT
COLDER 30S IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD ADVECTION MORE PRONOUNCED
THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH INTERIOR AND 30-35 MPH IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENG TONIGHT WITH GOOD COLD
ADVECTION PROMOTING GUSTY W WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE TROF PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY N ZONES AS LAKE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF. ELSEWHERE...MOCLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MINS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLUMN IS DRY WHICH WILL YIELD MOSUNNY
SKIES BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS -13/-14C
SUPPORTS MAXES UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NW HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP
MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH NW GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
* MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
* RAINSTORM LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
20.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...WITH A DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AMONGST BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IS THROUGH THE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AND PHASING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FOR SUN-MON...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE
TIMING OF A FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND OCCLUDING. THIS OCCLUDING SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
SIMILARLY TO THIS WEEKS COLD TROF. HOWEVER...THE AXIS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND MAY REMAIN W AND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP AS THIS
WEEKS SYSTEM. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SO
WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF AFTER MON.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
THE LONGWAVE TROF WHICH BROUGHT THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER FROM THE S. THIS WILL INITIATE
MODEST RETURN FLOW WITH GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DWPTS...THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FULLY LEAVE THE LOW-LVLS...SO SUSPECT THAT HIGHS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SAT IN SPITE OF RISING
DWPTS AND RETURN FLOW. MAINLY DRY INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND MON...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SLOWLY OCCLUDING LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE W. FIRST IT/S WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUN...AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE FLUX...MAY YIELD SOME MIXED PRECIP FOR THE
INTERIOR...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GIVEN NEAR SFC TEMPS MAY
BY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SUN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
60 KT SLY LLJ /3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ ALONG WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES /2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND RISING K-VALUES SUGGESTS
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ALSO...THE STRONG JET COULD YIELD GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES OR EVEN A FINE LINE
THAT COULD BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SFC. THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA.

TUE THROUGH THU...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS TO THE W...BUT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES ATTEMPTING TO NOSE OVER
FROM THE W...IT MAY BE THE DEEP COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. WILL
YIELD A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE TROF GETS BY THAT POINT. FOR
NOW WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FROM NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1045 AM UPDATE...

NO CHANGE FROM 12Z TAFS. WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. HOWEVER WE WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------

TODAY...
VFR. AN ISOLATED FLURRY POSSIBLE WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SW
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS NW...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS. 

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/FOG. MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LULL INTO SUN
EVENING. BEST TIMING FOR RAIN/FOG IS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

1045 AM UPDATE...

WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST GUSTS MAY BE
CLOSER TO 30 KT...RATHER THAN 35 KT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE GLW AS IS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR OVER WARMER
WATERS PROMOTES GOOD MIXING. A PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED TODAY
OVER OPEN WATERS ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...THEN ANOTHER
PULSE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF GALES ON FRIDAY...BUT NW GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS UPWARDS TO 10-12 FT OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS DURING
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...THEN SW WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-250.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY



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