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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 060741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
241 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY BEFORE
HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...
FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
240 AM UPDATE...

CLEARING HAS WORKED THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AS BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE.
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS N-S OCEAN EFFECT CLOUD BANDS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT WITH DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS. RAP HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON TIMING AND SHOWS
THESE OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS BACKING ONTO CAPE COD THIS MORNING...BEFORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHES THEM OUT
TO SEA.

OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. AFTER A VERY COLD
START WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS INTERIOR TO TEENS AT COAST...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN LOW TO
MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.

THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
ALSO CHECKED RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH LOOK TO BE OUT OF
REACH...ESPECIALLY BOSTON!

BOSTON...9 IN 1872 /LOW THAT DAY WAS -8/
PROVIDENCE...22 IN 2007
HARTFORD...19 IN 2007
WORCESTER...16 IN 2007

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP
SNOWPACK SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS
AND TEENS. IT PROBABLY WON/T BE AS COLD AS IT IS THIS MORNING DUE
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT AS WARM ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATER IN DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT FOR NOW KEPT FORECAST DRY.
INCREASING SW FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER 
  TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK 

* PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR

OVERVIEW... 
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL 
PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD 
MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE 
INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS. 
HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN 
STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. 

SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... 
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A 
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND 
AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING 
BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... 
MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED 
BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE 
LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH CLOUD COME CLOSE 
TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED AS 
GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH COOLER 
TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST.   

THURSDAY... 
COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG 
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT.

VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020 NEAR OUTER CAPE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY 
AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR BLOCK ISLAND/RI SOUNDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND FOR OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
N WINDS TODAY AND MORE OF W/SW WINDS TONIGHT AND SAT. WINDS APPROACH
SCA LATER SAT AFTERNOON ON S COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT...SCA WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE EVENING THEN 
DIMINISHING. 

SUN AND MON...MAINLY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOW PROB FOR A 
FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. 

TUE...SW WINDS BELOW SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
 
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD



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