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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 010541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS FOLLOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MODERATING TEMPS WEDNESDAY THEN VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1240 AM UPDATE...
SKC ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY SPILL INTO W ZONES OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
T/TD GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE COLLAPSES TOWARD THE MID ATLC
COAST OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES CANADIAN BORDER. SKIES
ARE CLEAR BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN EASTERN NY MAY DRIFT INTO
WESTERN NEW ENG OVERNIGHT. STILL GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT
TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. WHERE WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. CURRENTLY 1 AT
ORE. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS NW MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

TOMORROW...

850MB ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. HOWEVER 
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS 925 MB TEMPS JUMP FROM -13C TO
-8C. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO PERHAPS THE LOW 30S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS... 

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...
 
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN 
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE 
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE.  THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE 
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  BIGGEST 
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF 
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON 
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN 
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF 
THE REGION.  EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW 
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY.  SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING 
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND 
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR 
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING 
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY 
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN 
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE 
MODELS.  RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY 
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE 
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL 
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING.  GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND 
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS 
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS.  BULK OF SNOW 
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE 
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES 
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC.  8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE 
REGION.  HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON 
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA 
BEING MET.  AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE 
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS.  IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS 
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY 
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE 
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY 
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT 
INCREASES.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH 
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG 
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT 
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.  

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY 
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS 
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL 
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS... 

* COLD PATTERN CONTINUES THRU NEXT WEEKEND
* CLIPPER LOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAN COASTAL LOW WED/THU

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 12Z DETERMINISTIC...12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS 
ENSEMBLES THAT THE POLAR JET WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TIER STATES 
INCLUDING NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH STREAMS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNPHASED WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THIS 
PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE CLIPPER LOW ENTERING THE NORTHEAST 
WED/WED NIGHT. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT 
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH 
POSSIBLE COASTAL-OCEAN STORM IMPACTING OUR REGION AROUND THU. 
HOWEVER LATEST GUID INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MID LEVEL TROUGH 
WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW FOR A SECONDARY LOW 
TO IMPACT THE REGION. THEREFORE LEANING TOWARD A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK 
AND JUST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT. HOWEVER AT 
THIS TIME RANGE CAN/T BE TOO DETERMINISTIC. THUS WON'T TOTALLY 
DISCOUNT CLOSER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...BITTERLY COLD TUE BEHIND DEPARTING MON NGT COASTAL 
LOW. THEN COLD EASES WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FOLLOWED 
BUT YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE CLIPPER. AS 
FOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST TEMPS COLDER THAN 
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 

SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB FOR AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. 

VFR THIS EVENING DETERIORATES TO IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR/LIFR IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY MON. PTYPE
MAY TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDDAY
FROM PVD-TAN-PYM SOUTH AND CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS. NE WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS E
COASTAL MA MONDAY...WITH 25 KT ACROSS RI AND REMAINDER OF E MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. 

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW RISK OF MVFR
ALONG SOUTHEAST MASS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER 06Z...BUT GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT EXPECT SCA
WAVES TO REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
PERSIST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS/HIGH SEAS AND THE RISK OF HEAVY 
  FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT***

WINDS/SEAS QUICKLY RAMP UP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. GALE WATCHES ISSUED FOR
EXPECTED 40+ KNOT NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BY MON MORNING. 
SEAS BUILD TO 15+ FEET ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY WATCH.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST 
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...NW GALES LIKELY ALONG WITH FREEZING SPRAY...POSSIBLY 
MODERATE TO HEAVY. MAINLY DRY WITH GOOD VSBY EXCEPT FAR OFFSHORE 
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON.

WED...WINDS EASE AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS CLIPPER LOW ENTERS THE 
GREAT LAKES AND NY STATE. NOT AS COLD SO FREEZING SPRAY UNLIKELY. 
VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.

THU...ARCTIC FRONT WITH NW GALES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE TO 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** MINOR TO PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING 
  POSSIBLE MON/MON NIGHT EASTERN MA COASTLINE ***

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN   
NANTUCKET AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WITH NAM THE FASTEST AND GFS   
FARTHEST NORTHWEST. ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. MODEL CONSENSUS   
BRINGS STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...CLOSE TO LOW   
TIDE. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS UP WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE MINOR   
COASTAL FLOODING. 

THE FIRST TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN IS THE MONDAY MID MORNING. HOWEVER 
ALL WAVE GUID SUGGEST SEAS LESS THAN 10 FT AT HIGH TIDE GIVEN 
ARRIVAL OF STRONGEST WINDS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO 
YIELDS SURGE VALUES OF A FOOT OR LESS. 

AS FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRO TIDES ARE ABOUT A 
1 FT LOWER. HOWEVER A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT IS POSSIBLE. 
ESTOFS AND ETSS ARE LOWER...SO I BLENDED THE TWO GUID SOURCES AND 
ADDED 50 PERCENT TO COME UP WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. IN 
ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT DURING THE EVENING 
HIGH TIDE. ALL OF THESE FACTORS YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF MINOR 
COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING. 

WHILE WINDS...SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS 
COASTAL STORM THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MODEST IMPACT ESPECIALLY FOR 
THOSE COMMUNITIES SUCH AS MARSHFIELD MA THAT WERE HIT HARD EARLIER 
THIS WEEK WHERE COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS SEAWALLS WERE DAMAGED. 
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK IS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET THE GREATEST RISK OF 
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWARD FROM CAPE COD TO CAPE ANN 
WITH PERHAPS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM HULL/COHASSET/SCITUATE/ 
MARSHFIELD/PLYMOUTH TO SANDWICH HARBOR.
/DUXBURY

GIVEN IT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND STILL 
48-60 HRS OUT IN TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY 
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR SURPASSING RECORD 
LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND THAT IS NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT 
THE STRONG WINDS.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY 2/3...

BOSTON         -5 SET IN 1881 
PROVIDENCE     -6 SET IN 1961 
WORCESTER      -7 SET IN 1931, 1955 AND 1971 
WINDSOR LOCKS  -3 SET IN 1955
BLUE HILL OBS  -7 SET IN 1955

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
     FOR MAZ020>024.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>019-026.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR 
     ANZ231>235-237.
     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY 
     MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
     250-251-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ233>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR 
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR 
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



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