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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 170557
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR....YIELDING TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. CLOSER
TO THE COASTLINE...COLD AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS UP AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
STAY ABOVE 32F. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE CAPE. HAVE
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GROWING SEASON FOR AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH-
COAST DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL APRIL 20TH...SO THERE WILL BE NO FREEZE
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES 
AND ACCOMPANYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. 
TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT LENDS TO INCREASING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. 
THE LONG FETCH OFF THE COLDER WATERS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY FOR 
THE EASTERN-COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY-AIR 
INVERSION COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING PER SUNSHINE SHOULD 
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. OTHERWISE 
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EXPECT A MILDER DAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT 
RETREATS NORTH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER-40S TO 
LOW-50S. 

THURSDAY NIGHT...

STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE 
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH A CONTINUED 
BREEZY ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE 
REGION KEEPS LOWS ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WHILE 
ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-20S. EASTERLY WINDS 
WILL LIMIT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH SHELTERED VALLEYS 
OVER N/W NEW ENGLAND MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NEAR THE COAST ON FRI...OTHERWISE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN
* FEW SHOWERS COULD BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS SAT
  MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONTERMINOUS USA WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICT REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND CONFIGURATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION TO THE
FLOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND
GFS DEPICT MILDER 850 MB TEMPS COMPARED WITH THE LAST FEW PRIOR
RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER REGION BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD KEEP BOTH
EAST AND SOUTH COASTS QUITE CHILLY GIVEN OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. 
  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
HERE AND THERE BUT KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE MOST AREA.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE JUST ENOUGH OF A RISK FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO BRUSH THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AND DID KEEP A LOW
CHANCE POP THERE. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTH COAST. AS BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETS EMBEDDED INTO
THE DENSER UPPER AIR NETWORK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD GROW ON THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON MORNING
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STILL REMAINING DRY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LIKELY
REMAINING DRY IN OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6C TO 8C MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TUE. THERE IS ALSO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN FLOW. FOR NOW THINK QPF WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHOULD END UP PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.

WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE N TO NW FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE APRIL SUN AND DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
TEMPER THE IMPACT FROM COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. 

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A PYM-WST LINE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH  OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL
TAKE LONG TO SUBSIDE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THU EVENING OUTSIDE OF
HARBORS...BAYS AND SOME SOUNDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 6 TO 8
FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS INTO THU. SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME
IN RESPONSE TO ESPECIALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
MARITIMES AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC COAST.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO OFFSHORE
LOW PRES MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NW FLOW BEHIND LOW PRES THAT FORMS ON
COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ANTICIPATED.

MON AFTERNOON...INCREASING SW FLOW AND FETCH MAY CAUSE WINDS AND
SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 25 KT GUSTS AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FETCH TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD 
MIDDLE HADDAM 
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
MARINE...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...



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