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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 250609
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY WITH
WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT
THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NOW INTO CENTRAL-EASTERN MA INTO
RI...AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HANDLING THIS TIMING WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

------------------------------------------------------------------

BACK EDGE OF CLOUD LINE MOVING ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY AND ADVANCING
STEADILY EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS MID LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM NY AND PA.

SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
40S...UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. A MODEST NW WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY
SO ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO MODIFY HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF 
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND  
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON 
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS 
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND 
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR 
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH 
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S. 
 
MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE 
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR 
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE 
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS 
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE 
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS 
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY 
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH 
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY 
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE. 

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE 
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF 
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END 
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS 
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN MA AND RI
AT 06Z/2AM...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
EXIT THE CAPE AROUND 14Z-15Z. THEREAFTER VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT
TO MODEST W WIND BECOMING SW TOWARD 21Z-00Z.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH SEAS A
BIT HIGHER. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED  
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. 
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR 
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE 
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS 
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD 
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND 
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...NOCERA/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/NMB



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