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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 281746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1246 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE
FRONT MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A POLAR
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER MON BRINGING A
RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER TUE. A WARM FRONT MAY THEN BRING ANOTHER
RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
CAPE...PRECIP HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS THE INVERTED TROUGH HAS PULLED
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
MAKE IT OVER THE BERKSHIRES FROM NEW YORK STATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.  

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS WITH
CLOUDS PULLING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST BUT MORE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ONLY ONES SEEING FULL SUNNY SKIES NOW IS THE SOUTH
COASTS OF CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT MOST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THATS AS WARM AS WE ARE GOING TO GET TODAY GIVEN THE LOW
SUN ANGLE AND THE CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ON THE OUTER CAPE WILL EXIT THE COAST BY
02Z...THEN SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. W-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY EARLY TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...BUT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E. CORE OF COLDEST
H85 TEMPS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WILL DROP TO
-10C TO -13C OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A NEW SNOWPACK ACROSS S NH/N CENTRAL AND W MA...WILL SEE TEMPS
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS THERE...WHILE MID TO
UPPER TEENS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS OVERNIGHT.
READINGS WILL HOLD IN THE 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED 340 AM

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY BUT DRY SATURDAY
* MUCH MILDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* RETURN TO CHILLY WEATHER TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

00Z GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD OFFERING A TYPICAL LATE FALL 
WEATHER PATTERN...AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS 
RESULTS IN LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. AS FOR THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS 
AND ECMWF...OTHER THAN TYPICAL TIMING /GFS FASTER WITH FROPA MON/ 
AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE THESE MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS. THUS WILL USE A 
MODEL BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 
 
DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY...COLD START TO THE DAY AFTER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING 
TONIGHT. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MU30S...WITH U20S AND L30S 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE TEMPS ARE 10-15 DEGS COLDER THAN 
NORMAL. HOWEVER PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL 
TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE CHILLY TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THUS INCREASING 
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS 
SUGGEST ANY LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THEN 
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ALL RAIN. COLUMN 
STRUGGLES TO SATURATE SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HENCE 
NOT A HIGH IMPACT EVENT. 

SUNDAY AND MONDAY... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHEAST STATES AND THIS YIELDS MILDER AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD UP 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S ACROSS 
RI AND EASTERN MA BOTH DAYS. POLAR COLD FRONT MAY YIELD THE RISK FOR 
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS /POSSIBLE ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS/ LATE MON/MON 
NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE ECMWF SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN GFS. GIVEN 
TIME RANGE WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND.

TUESDAY...1042 MB HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED POLAR AIRMASS SETTLE OVER 
NEW ENGLAND TUE WITH TEMPS NEARLY 20 DEGS COLDER THAN MON! HIGHS 
ONLY IN THE 30S...MU20S HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIP POSSIBLE WITH A WINTRY MIX GIVEN COLD 
AIR WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO DISLODGE.

THURSDAY...TREND IS FOR DRIER BUT A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...ANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST THAT HAVE LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR.

SATURDAY...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOWERING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN LATE AT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS...AROUND 2000
FEET...WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY TO 40-45 KNOTS AND MAY
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

MONDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE OR AT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH 
TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AGAIN
UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GUST
TO 25 FT ACROSS CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUND AROUND MIDDAY SO
HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFT THERE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
SUBSIDING. 

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS EARLY THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT 
NIGHT. THUS FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER DURING THE 
DAY. RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU THE REGION. MODEST SW WIND 
DEVELOPS BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND SO MODEST SW WINDS 
CONTINUE.

TUE...COLD HIGH PRES DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     MAZ022.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



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