Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Boston, MA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241940
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT THEN REBOUNDING
NICELY FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE
THEN BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

340 PM UPDATE...

POWERFUL LATE SEASON OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BLEND OF ALL DATA SOURCES YIELDS MINS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH
AS THE CT RVR VLY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CITY OF
BOSTON...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE WINDS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
DIMINISH AND KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40. 

AS FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...THE GROWING SEASON HAS ONLY BEGUN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HERE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTH COASTAL MA
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE M30S FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT 3 AM TO 7 AM.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. GIVEN GROWING SEASON
IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS HERE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. DID NOT
INCLUDE COMMUNITIES NEAR NARRAGANSETT BAY AS WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
DECOUPLE HERE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE U30S AND L40S. THUS LOWER RISK
OF WIDESPREAD FROST.

ELSEWHERE/INLAND TEMPS WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER NO HEADLINES GIVEN
GROWING SEASON FOR MOST LOCATIONS DOESN/T START UNTIL SOMETIME IN
MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

REAL NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH STRONG APRIL
SUN ANGLE WARMING AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INLAND. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING SEABREEZES BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY
BY LATE APR STANDARDS AND CONSIDERING WHAT THE WEEKEND AND EXTENDED
FORECAST OFFERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ROBUST TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD AND ARRIVES HERE FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH PARENT LOW ENTERING WESTERN NY
EARLY SAT...WHILE SECONDARY LOW SPINS UP NEAR LONG ISLAND NY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA 8 PM TO 2 AM...THEN
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 2 AM TO 8 AM. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST ATLANTIC INFLOW AND JET DYNAMICS TOWARD 12Z
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK

24/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. 
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME DISCREPANCIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE 
PERIOD. A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST FROM THE COAST...PASSING
OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND THE NAM IS CLOSEST PASSING OVER
NANTUCKET. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH SINCE THE 12Z RUN SO WENT
WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE QUICK TO MOVE TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN A BIT BETTER THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEMBERS AS TO WHETHER WE WILL BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OR TROUGHING. BETWEEN THIS AND THE MODELS
TENDENCY TO RUSH A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...HAVE A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST 
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE NORTHERN LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC 
WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE 
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WHILE THE NAM IS 
THE FARTHEST NORTH.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STEEP MID LEVEL RATES PROVIDE ENOUGH 
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AND AS SUCH HAVE MENTIONED 
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN 
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING 
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  WHERE EXACTLY THE BLOCKED PATTERN 
SETS UP WILL DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF WEATHER WE ARE LOOKING AT.  SOME 
MODELS HAVE A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD RESULT IN 
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA. HOWEVER...A SHIFT COULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

4 PM UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...GUSTY NW WINDS 30-40 KT CONTINUE THEN BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. VFR AS WELL.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH A DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START THEN QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN CT/MA 00Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN
MA 06Z-12Z. LOW RISK OF IFR TOWARD 12Z SAT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY INCREASING UP TO 25 KT TOWARD 12Z SAT ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
NW GALES UNTIL 8 PM OR SO FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE.

FRI...HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEABREEZES NEAR SHORE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

FRI NIGHT...RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. LOW RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH
WATERS. AS LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TOWARD SUNRISE SAT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

OUTLOOK...SAT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  N/NW WINDS AND SEAS 
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT CONDITIONS ARE 
CLOSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AND THEN
DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. UNTIL THEN EXPECT NW WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND RH VALUES 15-25 PERCENT. RECENT RAINFALL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...LESS RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE CT VALLEY
THUS RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR CT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>021-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...NOCERA



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy