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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 011432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND DURATION BRIEF. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...THE FOG HAS ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATED WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING HAZE PATCHES. SEA BREEZE RUNNING A LITTLE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE ALONG MA E COAST AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT IN UPDATE. REDUCED
THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
DO EXPECT CUMULUS FORMATION AND WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT TAPERED BACK A LITTLE THE POPS. NAM
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON INSTABILITY. HRR DOES SHOW
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS DEVELOPING ABOUT 30 MI EITHER SIDE OF A
LWM-ORH-BDL LINE 16Z-22Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND MEDIOCRE
INSTABILITY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSTMS TO REACH SVR THRESHOLD AT
THIS TIME.

ADJUSTED TEMPS JUST A TAD HIGHER ACROSS SE AND E INTERIOR
MA...OTHERWISE LOOKS GOOD.

7 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF THEM DENSE...CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THEY ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MASSACHUSETTS.
REGARDLESS...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THESE
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN
CT/RHODE ISLAND AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ON SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST 
  THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY 
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT 
MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN 
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP 
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST MAY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD 
SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  

SATURDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL 
WORK NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST.  GIVEN WEAK 
BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE 
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS.  THIS CASE IS NO 
EXCEPTION...AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST 
48 HOURS.  WE DO THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL SEE A 
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER BACK INTO 
THE INTERIOR.  PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST 
SECTIONS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS 
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  INSTABILITY IS VERY 
LIMITED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

ALL IN ALL...WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE 
RAIN SHIELD ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WE DO THINK AT LEAST THE 
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SEE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WHICH 
MAY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND 
ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE 
POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE 
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. 

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST SHIFTS 
WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN 
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT 
LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS TIME.   
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD 
EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT 
THIS TIME PERIOD AND ACROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST 
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RI...AND SE MA. THE 
NAM INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT IT 
IS ALONE IN FORECASTING THAT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME 
BEING. 
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE 
BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE 
MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND.  EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS OF 14Z FOG HAD BURNED OFF
LEAVING JUST A FEW HAZE PATCHES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY KICKED INTO E COASTAL MA. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER 
THAN LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS 
LATE. 

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY 
AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A 
TIME.  THIS MAY RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A 
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND REFLECTED THAT IN A
TAF UPDATE. ALSO...THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND 
TONIGHT.  LOW PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR 
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR 
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -RA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW 
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA.  COLD FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP 
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD...BUT SOME REDUCTIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS IN RAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER 
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.  RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH 
SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN FOG.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER 
EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



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