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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 240611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND
A DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDE
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM  THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. PREVIOUS
FORECAST VERIFYING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND 
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN 
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE 
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR 
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE 
REGION. 

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE 
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT 
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE 
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS 
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE 
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE 
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES 
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON 
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM 
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. 
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS 
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE 
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN 
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS 
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN 
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND 
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX 
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE 
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY. 
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD 
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR 
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM 
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED. 
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO 
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND 
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE 
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW 
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. 
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. 
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF 
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE 
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT 
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-250-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99



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