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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 272033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE 
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WARM UP OCCURS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W'S IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT. 1ST S/W ACRS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WITH
SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...WHILE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WL MOVE ACRS OUR FA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WL COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CAT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED ON THE BTV4/6/12 AND ARW/NAM
SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW WEAK REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES MOVING FROM SW TO
NE ACRS OUR FA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND MID LVL
MOISTURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND ENERGY
AND SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...TO LAKE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C...FROUDE #'S OFF THE BTV4 ARE VERY
LOW BTWN 0.40 AND 0.80...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW AND POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES REGION.
ALSO...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WL HELP ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS
THE EASTERN CPV/WESTERN SLOPES...TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAK
LIFT...BUT FLW IS LIGHT SO FORCING WL BE LIMITED. LOOKING AT LOCAL
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD RH >90% IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD FLAKE SIZE WITH THIS LIGHT EVENT.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH OR
TWO...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPE/NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CPV. QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10"
THRU FRIDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 10S MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...CHANGEABLE WX EXPECTED 
ACRS THE NE CONUS AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT 
BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLW. THIS WL RESULT IN 
WARMING TEMPS AND BREEZY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP 
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY...2ND VORT AND 
ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RH IS ACRS THE NEK OF VT BY 15Z AND NE OF 
OUR CWA BY 18Z. PROGGED NW 850MB FLW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND LLVL CAA 
WL RESULT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THRU 18Z. THESE COLD WINDS 
AND WARM LAKE WATERS WL HELP TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT LAKE CHAMPLAIN 
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY 
MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN PRECIP AMOUNTS WL BE 
LIGHT AND MAYBE A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS FROM JAY 
PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD TO SUGARBUSH. BLOCK FLW CONTS SO PRECIP 
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE CONFINED ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE SPINE OF THE 
GREEN MTNS INTO THE EASTERN CPV. SOME FLURRIES WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS 
THE NEK/DACKS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -12C AND -14C 
WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 512DAM AND SNOW 
PACK/CLOUDS WL RESULT IN BLW NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY L20S 
MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK LES BAND WL SLOWLY 
LIFT INTO THE WESTERN DACKS/SOUTHERN SLV BTWN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. 
HOWEVER...THE LLVL SHEAR WL BE INCREASING AS THE WINDS ARE VEERING 
AND WAA IS OCCURRING...SO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPS 
WL BE VERY TRICKY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND. 
THINKING LATEST MET TEMP OF 5F AT SLK IS WAY TOO COLD...GIVEN THE BL 
WINDS AND CLOUDS...SO WL ADD AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AND MENTION LOWS 
RANGING FROM NEAR 10F COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 20F CPV/SLV....WITH 
MID/UPPER TEENS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT ZONES. IF MORE CLRING DEVELOPS 
THAN EXPECTED A FEW READINGS NEAR 0F WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AS 
RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NOTICE WHITEFIELD NH GUIDANCE HAS A 
-1F OFF THE MAV AND 1F OFF THE MET. 

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LLVL WAA DEVELOPS WITH DEVELOPING 
SOUTHWEST FLW. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH 
LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR REGION BTWN 21Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY. 
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LLVL WAA FROM SW 85H JET OF 40 TO 
50 KNOTS WL CREATE A BAND OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACRS OUR CWA. 
INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW 
THRU 06Z SUNDAY...BUT PROGGED 85H TEMPS SURGE >0C BY 12Z 
SUNDAY...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN/CENTRAL VT STAY 
BLW 0C. THESE THERMAL PROFILES WL MAKE FOR A TRICKY OVERNIGHT LOW 
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST VALUES ACRS THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF 
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. THINKING TEMPS WL DROP QUICKLY SAT 
NIGHT...BEFORE WARMING UP TWD SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY CPV/SLV 
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP 
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY. THAT TROUGH WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON ELEVATION TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. AS
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RACES THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THAT WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SO ITS MORE OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. BEHIND
THAT FRONT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT RIDGING WITH A BROAD REGION OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DROP THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW STRONG LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ARE FORECASTING 850 TEMPS IN THE -16
TO -20 RANGE WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AND IN SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE UPPER TEENS LOW 20S AT
HIGHER ELEVATION. NONE OF THE MODELS RIGHT NOW SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE MUCH FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SO EXPECT TUESDAY TO JUST BE
VERY COLD AND DRY. AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF SHORE THE RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN ENOUGH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL
BE QUICKLY RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SO THE DROP
IN TEMPS TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
SLUG OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WESTERN NY TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE
WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SO I INCLUDED SLIGHT MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
KRUT. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 10Z AT KSLK. BY
05Z THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND KRUT AND EXPECT
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KPBG AND KBTV BY 09Z. EXPECT NORTH
TO NORTH EAST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



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