Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY 
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER 
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z. 

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE 
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT 
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND 
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST 
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST 
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND 
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK 
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO 
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL 
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL 
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU 
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY 
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT 
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA 
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED 
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS 
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY 
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy