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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230618
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER






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