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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY'S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE'RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE'LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS






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