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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221952
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT 
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOTS O' CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
THE COMMON FEATURES FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME.
ALL THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE SLOW MOVING, BUT THUS FAR NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS -- PERHAPS SOME SPOT AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2". NOT A LOT
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS, SO AS WE REACH CLOSER TO
SUNSET, EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LATER TONIGHT, A DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS (EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF
THE BORDER) WILL START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT. AT
THAT TIME WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS, I WOULD EXPECT FOG TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP. THUS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS OF VERMONT. 

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WON'T FALL TOO MUCH OR TOO
QUICKLY. THINK 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT
WEEKEND, WITH JUST ONE SMALL BUG-A-BOO. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
SLOW TO EVOLVE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, ANTICIPATE
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SHOULD RESULT
IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE PAINTED IN LOW RAINFALL
CHANCES, GENERALLY 15-25% FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THAT AREA.
CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO BE A WASHOUT. 

OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 11-12C, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL SET UP A CLEAR/CALM NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS, THIS WILL SET UP A
PERFECT SITUATION FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP -- ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH
COLDER HOLLOWS INTO THE 40S.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR WEATHER DAY (WELL, FOR SUMMER
FANS). HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. THUS LOTS OF 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
BE THE COMMON RESULT. 

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/CALM
CONDITIONS, SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BACK INTO THE 50S (40S IN THE COLDEST
SPOTS).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED PERIOD THE
FULL LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI BASIN SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE EASTERN US. QUIET WEATHER DURING THIS TIME, WITH WARMING 
TEMPERATURES. BY MID WEEK GFS DEVELOPS HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER 
EASTERN US AND TROUGH TO WEST, WHILE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT. AS A RESULT 
GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS QUITE A BIT WARMER. GFS 
850 MB TEMPS UP TO 17F ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 
TEMPS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ECMWF 
SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...SO FELT 
COMFORTABLE BUMPING UP WEDS MAX TEMPS OVER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THIS 
ALSO MATCHED PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. 

ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...AND 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN TEMPS...IS LOWER FOR THE LATTER 
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS STATES IS TAKEN BY THE GFS TO DIG AN EAST COAST 
TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TAKES THE 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT GFS GIVES ANOTHER DAY OF 
WARMTH WHILE THE ECMWF COOLS US DOWN ON THURSDAY. HEDGED A LITTLE 
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TOWARD THE GFS ON THURSDAY...BUT KEPT THE 
FORECAST MAXES THURS OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 80S.

BOTH MODELS BRING POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY WITH THE APPROACH OF A 
SURFACE FRONT DESPITE DISSIMILARITIES AT 500 MB. ORIENTATION AND 
SPEED OF THE FRONT VARIES...BUT USING A BROAD BRUSH IN THE FAR END 
OF THE EXTENDED YIELDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. TREATED SHOWERS WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE TAFS AS THEY MOVE
INTO AERODROME. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RAISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT SOME SOME LOWERING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DURING OVERNIGHT OURS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST. FIRST IN VT THEN MOVE INTO NY BY DAYBREAK.
TIMING IS KEY HERE...AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIFR FOG FORMATION AT KMPV. ALSO INCREASE FOG PRODUCTION
AT KSLK...DRYING WILL BE CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT THAT PLACE IS PRONE
TO FOG IN AND BROUGHT LIFR TO KSLK TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE TREND ON
SATURDAY IS TOWARD BREAKING OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND P6SM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT
AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AND VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON







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