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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 190228
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
928 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY
OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A 
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 928 PM EST THURSDAY...PATCHY -FZDZ HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND CENTRAL/NRN VT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS
PRIMARY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYERS ARE TRENDING UNSATURATED.
THIS HAS BEEN PICKED UP QUITE WELL ON THIS EVENING'S RAP SOUNDING
PROFILES AND HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL LIGHT GLAZE ICING ON UNTREATED/ELEVATED SURFACES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS BLOCKED
MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER THAN THE
PATCHY -FZDZ AND SOME PASSING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...A GENERALLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...ONLY ISSUE WILL BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACT ON RADIATIVE HEATING/COOLING AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRIFTS ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS AND SERN CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH FOR FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER/LOW SUN ANGLE...WILL KEEP ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING FAIRLY LIMITED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY HOLDING ON
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND TRENDED ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS ON LOW TEMPS DUE
TO POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COINCIDING WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MAXES OF MID TO UPPER 20S TO END THE
WEEKEND, TO LOW TO MID 30S TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, EDGING INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION, A WAVE AHEAD
OF THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW STRENGTHENS QUICKLY. TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND
SURFACE FEATURES STILL UNDER DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS, BUT STRONG
WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE PRESENT IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH 850 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 55 KTS. GFS BEING STRONGER AND
850MB WINDS EXCEED 65KTS IN AREAS. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS
THE SUMMITS AND NWRN SLOPES. THIS WILL BE A STORM TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE NE USA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT
MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND CONTINUING AT SLK FOR FRIDAY. PBG IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WHERE SOME LOCAL DOWNSLOPING HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AND THAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...POSSIBLY LASTING TO 12Z AT MPV/SLK. HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EXPECTED...IF
ANY AT ALL.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



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