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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB
WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING
RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER
AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO
VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS
ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS
BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY
BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR
THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT
KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE
VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH
KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW
MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL 
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25 
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY 
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE 
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE 
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND 
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-
     004-007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES
MARINE...MUCCILLI



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