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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 311940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE PREVAILING NW FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. PER RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...FRONT WILL
GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY...WITH JUST A BAND OF
CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE STEADILY RISING ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND ANY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
QUITE SHALLOW. CONVERGENCE IS ALSO LIMITED BY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSAGE AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH LEAD TO VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ALL IN ALL...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW EARLY GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH PBL STABILIZATION. IT APPEARS DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SUFFICIENT CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT WILL STILL PERMIT PATCHY FOG
FORMATION IN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT LOCALLY
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS
WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE
CLEAR CONDITIONS. 

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO
+19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS
FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...BKN TO OVC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FINALLY
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS NOW. WINDS ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AT ALL
SITES. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z OR
00Z. MORE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z AT KSLK/KMPV WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME MVFR BR AT
BTV AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY
AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



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