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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT TUESDAY...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING
IN A VERY PLEASANT SEPTEMBER 1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
82-86F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. POPS NIL AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CRESTS OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE WEAK FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS 18-20C...SO LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE
TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES
OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACH OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THURSDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
COOL A BIT...TO AROUND 14C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID-50S BUT WITH PROGGED
850-925MB TEMPS OF +12-20C RESPECTIVELY WE'LL BE SEEING A RETURN
OF MORE MID-SUMMER LIKE VALUES. HIGHS WILL START OUT
FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AN FRIDAY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S, BUT WARM INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE WAY OUT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NEILES



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