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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 231534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, BUT WARMER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
REMAINING SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH STRENGTHENING CLOSED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH TO ALMOST AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY BE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS AND
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AS MODEL ANOMALIES FOR 925MB AND
850MB SHOWING 3 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
THINKING IS REINFORCED BY NAM AND GFS 850MB JET OF 70+ KTS PRESENT
EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THIS STRONG JET, WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY COULD SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP AS
DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C PLUS
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS 55-60F. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND GENERAL
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH
FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL
COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND
BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND.
MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS
1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS
EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT
ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK,
FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
TODAY, THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT
SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF AREA. RADAR INDICATING
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. KSLK/KMPV IN IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND MIST, AND REST OF AREA MVFR
CIGS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION VIS WILL
IMPROVE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. KMSS/KSLK
WILL SEE RAIN FIRST AROUND 08-09Z, THEN INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 12Z. CALLED PRECIP TYPE RAIN AT TAF SITES
WHERE EXPECT SURFACE TEMP WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL LIQUID PRECIP
HOWEVER GENERAL AREA COULD HAVE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP
AT THE ONSET.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR AND IFR IN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME POCKETS OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES KMPV/KRUT, LESSER AT
KMSS/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



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