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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 020223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEEKEND WEATHER WILL FEATURE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS TYPICAL,
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COOL FRONT COMES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WILL GIVE US DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID OPT TO INTRODUCE A
SLIM...OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR FAR SRN VT AND
SLV COUNTIES OVERNIGHT PER RECENT RADAR/HRRR TRENDS...BUT OVERALL
98 PCT OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL RH CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA PER RECENT IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO HAVE ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE THE RH IS A BIT
THICKER. FURTHER NORTH PATCHY BR/FG STILL A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
AREAS...ESP NORTH OF A KSLK TO K1V4 LINE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TRACK...BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAVE A GREAT
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND IT'S TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS ON TIMING AND
EXACT LOCATION OF CONVECTION AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. MY BEST GUESS ON WHAT WILL
EVOLVE FOLLOWS...

SATURDAY: 
OFF TO OUR SOUTH WE'LL HAVE THAT COASTAL TROUGH IN PLACE WHICH
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US AND WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT
COASTAL TROUGH. SOME MODELS EVEN SHOW A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE ONE
INGREDIENT IN HELPING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA. ANOTHER
FOCUS WILL BE A SURFACE HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THICKER
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND SUNSHINE (AT LEAST IN THE MORNING) TO THE
NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH NO CAP -- SO ONCE WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BUBBLE
UP, FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN ELSEWHERE. NOT LOOKING AT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WIND FIELDS WON'T BE ALL THAT STRONG.

DID SOME TRAJECTORY FORECASTS AND OUR AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
AND NORTHERN VERMONT IS WHAT IS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ AREA TODAY. AS YOU CAN SEE, THEY'VE HAD
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. I EXPECT OUR RADAR TO LIKE
LIKE THAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE PAINTED IN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THICKER CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL. NOTHING OUT
OF THE ORDINARY -- ROUGHLY 1.3" OR SO, BUT THAT MEANS SOME
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT WON'T BE ALL THAT STRONG, SO
SOME VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE STORMS. AGAIN, LOOK AT WHAT IS GOING ON DOWN SOUTH TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
THANKS TO THE CLOUDS. WARMEST NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN
(UNTIL THE STORMS FIRE UP). 

SATURDAY NIGHT: 
EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO FADE IN THE EVENING AS THE
HEATING GOES AWAY AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS. A FEW MODELS WANT TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. I JUST DON'T BUY THAT
AT THIS TIME. WOULD THINK OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
CLOSER TO THAT COASTAL TROUGH. EXPECT A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME.


SUNDAY:
OVERALL THE PATTERN IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW, COASTAL FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE
IN THE DAY. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. AGAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY. 

SUNDAY NIGHT: 
AGAIN, EXPECT SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO FADE SOMETIME DURING THE
EVENING. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
TURN THE WIND FLOW WEST THEN NW BY WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRIER AS
THE REGION SEES MORE NW FLOW BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ABOUND FROM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPS 
COOLING FROM 12C-14C TO 10C-12C. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN THE M60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND M70S-L80S IN THE 
VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY. MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL 
RANGE FROM THE L50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH A FEW RESIDUAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL
OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. HOWEVER ANY FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE GIVEN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA AND FORECAST INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR OR LOWER FOG IS AT SLK...WHILE CHANCES EXIST AT
MPV/MSS AS WELL. PBG MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG/BR THIS
EVENING WITH HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE DUE TO A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER
THIS EVENING. BTV/RUT SHOULD SEE NO FOG. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER
12Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR RETURNING/CONTINUING FOR MOST. AFTER
15Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST 
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH...5 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME GUSTS AT BTV TO 15 KNOTS 02Z-06Z TONIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/BR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI






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