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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180530
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS THE 
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECTING
THESE TO COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRIER CONTINUE TO
WORK SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE VERY
LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY...WHEN WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS WIND. TEMPS
WAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...OR ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID MARCH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS...WITH SOME SUBZERO
READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE TRADITIONALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC, PUTTING THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW. TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE MODELS KEEP
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS DISTINCT AND
SEPARATE BUT TRACK OF SOUTHERLY SYSTEM VARIES. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE TRACKED THE COASTAL LOW NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCH
MARK, BRINGING SOME SHOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST. GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE
KEPT THE COASTAL LOW FAR TO THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT AFFECTING OUR AREA. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY.

NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO
SE, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY, LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEYS WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CAN EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C TO -5C WILL BE REPLACED WITH -18C TO -15C
COME SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MEAN THAT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE M30S-
L40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TURN TO MUCH COLDER IN THE 20S ON
SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING. SCT-BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS IN CIG/VIS ACROSS VERMONT WILL END BY 08Z.
ADDITIONAL VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP IN WEAK INSTABILITY
AND NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER 15Z ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY MPV/SLK. COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THOUGH...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH VCSH FOR
NOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 20-28 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THU THROUGH 18Z FRI...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z FRI THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION AND COLD
FRONT CROSSES REGION.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AS SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 727 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...KTYX DOPPLER RADAR IS INOPERABLE
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE WITH A SUSPECTED MOTOR PROBLEM. THERE IS NO
KNOWN RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



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