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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING 
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO 
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER 
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS
TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY'S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF 
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. 
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN 
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX 
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S 
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING 
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER 
40S. 

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN'T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE'LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE'LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES 
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN'T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG



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