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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 282032
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS 
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY 
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE 
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE S/W 
ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON 
TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C 
AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD BL 
TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE 
RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT 
LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT 
VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO 
10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY 
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING 
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC 
LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 
12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW 
ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH 
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 
TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS 
THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 
5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES 
PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME 
UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH 
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 
TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED 
OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW 
FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON 
FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW 
ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO 
MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE 
FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES 
THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY 
IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. 
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH 
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE 
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY 
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP. 
EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS 
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE 
LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM 
SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS 
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH 
FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE 
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND 
TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD 
WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL 
HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT BY 00Z ALL SITES
WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS ABATING TO NEARLY CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
MID-LEVEL BKN-OVC DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND AFTER 12Z ACROSS VT. PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TO MVFR BY 00Z
FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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