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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 106 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO
WITH LATEST UPDATE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. STILL
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 356 AM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING ARE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHILE HIGH CLOUDS
ARE THICKENING TO OUR WEST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. EXPECT THROUGH THE DAY THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND DESPITE FILTERED
SUNSHINE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AS THE WARM FRONT NEVER REALLY GETS THERE, SO TEMPS WILL
RUN ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN THE LOW TO MID
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT MONDAY...FOR TONIGHT, UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR
EAST AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS, MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS, BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. FRONT IS PRETTY
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY WITH SNOWFALL
LINGERING OVER MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT IN GENERAL,
ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS THE THE CHAMPLAIN/LOWER CONNECTICUT/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND 1- 3" ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS COULD SEE UP TO 6".

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY BUT WE'LL
STILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC. WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, BASED ON CURRENTLY
PROGGED FROPA LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND LIKELY NOT FALL TOO MUCH BELOW FREEZING. VALUES WILL ONLY
CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING MID-MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT USHERS IN UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND 30S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BOTTOM OUT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH RELIEF IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S EXPECTED. OLD MAN WINTER HASN'T GIVEN UP YET!

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL
HAVE A SURFACE LOW EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A DEEPER LOW FURTHER NORTH OFF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. GFS MODEL HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HINTS AT PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY. WPC
MANUAL PROGS NOT BUYING INTO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SO HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND WITH CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY...AS THE
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR 03-06Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES AT
KMSS, KPBG, AND KBTV. LOOKS TO BE TWO PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ONE WITH
WARM ADVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER ONSET, THEN A LULL, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY (<1 HR) MODERATE AND SQUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TUE MORNING. TERRAIN WILL BE BLOCKING
THE FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NW SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THE FLOW BECOMES UNBLOCKED
LATE MORNING WITH SOME POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
CONTINUING UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH DEW POINTS
LOWERING AND RH DRYING OUT CIGS WILL BE RISING TO MVFR/VFR
ESPECIALLY AT KMSS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - WED BECOMING VFR UNDER NW FLOW. 
THU - VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
FRI - MAINLY VFR UNDER DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. 
SAT - BECOMING MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...SISSON



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