Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Burlington, VT banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS 
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER 
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING, BUT THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T BE UNTIL MID-WEEK 
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT SATURDAY...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KICKOFF THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MEAN 850-925MB TEMPS OF 13-19C RESPECTIVELY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF
80-85F THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. AS THIS TAKES PLACE THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TRAVERSE THE INTL BORDER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE HARD TO
BELIEVE WE'LL SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM THIS ENERGY,
BUT A FEW ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED VERY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. OTHERWISE, PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW TO NIL THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUE THEIR SLOW CLIMB AS A WARM AND
MORE HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPS BUMP UP A DEGREE OR 2 CELSIUS EACH DAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOCALLY
NEAR 90F IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. LOWS FOLLOW
SUIT THOUGH BEGIN CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S, BUT BECOME MILDER/MUGGIER SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING THROUGH
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND WARM DAY FOR LABOR DAY. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A DRY DAY
FOR LABOR DAY. THUS...HAVE STUCK WITH THE LOW SUPERBLEND POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS MODEL AGAIN HINTING AT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS IT DRY AND KEEPS ANY
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE REGION IN CANADA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND POPS ON TUESDAY AND
JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRINGING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. 

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGESTING A DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...SO
HAVE LOWERED SUPERBLEND POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20
PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...RATHER QUIET AVIATION WX CONDITIONS...MAINLY
SKC/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANTICIPATE LIFR FOG AT
MPV 0630Z THROUGH 1230Z...AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR BR/FOG
POSSIBLE AT SLK. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BUT LOCAL SE
WINDS POSSIBLE AT PBG WITH LATE MORNING/AFTN LAKE BREEZE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV
AFTER 0630Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
INTERVALS OF IFR FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z MONDAY. 

12Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT
OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...BANACOS



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy