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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 191155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY
AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EST FRIDAY...BLOCKED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ENDING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW
WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP
AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF
INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT
TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS
AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER
HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT 
THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. 
MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK 
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN
THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY 
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER 
THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL 
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF 
THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND 
SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN 
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH 
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER
TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH
60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE
DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF IFR ALSO EXPECTED AT MPV THIS MORNING AND IFR
CONTINUING AT SLK INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN AT
BTV/SLK/MPV...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SAME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SITES MOST LIKELY
TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ARE PBG THIS AFTERNOON AND MSS TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...EXCEPT
LOCALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING
STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR.

00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



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