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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1252 PM EDT TUESDAY...SLOW CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS
NRN NY IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH HAS
EXITED EAST OF VERMONT. STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES
ACROSS NRN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ACROSS VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST 5-10 MPH THIS
AFTN...WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE'LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT 
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER 
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB 
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH 
PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
60S IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH 
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT
FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY 
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING 
THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING 
CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 251 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE
WEEKEND WHEN A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PRODUCING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA COMES OUT OF A COLD NIGHT BUT TEMPS TO
RECOVER UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST...IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA IN THE
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW
RH...1000-500MB RH LESS THAN 40%...WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS. EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS BUT 850 MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND WEAK
WARM FRONT SETS UP ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850 MB
TEMPS WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND 70S SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
SATURDAY AND CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY NEARER THE WARM FRONT...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW SPINS
UP AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. THE
NORTHEAST IS CUT OFF FROM BETTER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH...SO ONLY
MOISTURE SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH IS WHAT IT BRINGS ALONG WITH IT
ACROSS THE CONTINENT. EXPECT SIMILAR RAINFALL AS WITH LAST NIGHTS
RAINFALL...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES...COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A LOW ALOFT WITH LOW THICKNESS AND
COOL 850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE 12-18Z
TIMEFRAME TODAY AS CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED FROM
WEST TO EAST. THINGS SETTLING DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. NY
TAF SITES SCATTERED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND WINDSHIFT...AND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH VERMONT THROUGH 20Z
WITH SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AND WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING.
KEPT WINDS AT KBTV 240 DEG...AS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CHANNELING
PERSISTS. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR
THEN LIFR FOG AND CIGS TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...ESPECIALLY WITH
RECENT RAINFALL. CONDITION TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13UTC.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN EARLY
MORNING FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON






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