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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 311746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
146 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT FRIDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL HALLOWEEN DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S REGIONWIDE...OR 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
THE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO
TO NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. 

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NE 5-10 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. JUST A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SOME SHOWER 
ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFFECTING ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 456 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WHERE AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BE JUST EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST...EXPECTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
HEAVIER QPF WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ALSO AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN
ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR
MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE
DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK
TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS
WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z
WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON
TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO
MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN
ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC
POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10".
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL
RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST
BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING
BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.

NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF
ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL
FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP
OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL
DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRETTY MUCH VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING MORE TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO AND POINTS WEST FROM THERE, AND THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS
AS TO HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE RAIN WILL GET AND HOW FAST THAT WILL
HAPPEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ANSWERS ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH
AND NOT ALL THAT FAST, AS THE ORGANIZING STORM WILL TAKE A PATH
KEEPING IT FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION. DO THINK SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING (PROBABLY AFTER 03Z).
LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS WELL AT MSS AND
SLK. WITH ANY RAIN/SNOW, WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPTATION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. HAVE JUST INCLUDED "VCSH" IN MOST TAFS FOR THAT.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOME
ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 
18Z SAT-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE
25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR

12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH
VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS
MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE
PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



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