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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER 
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED 
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED 
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE 
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN 
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN 
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD 
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I'M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE'LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I'D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE'LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. 

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY. 

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER








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