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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 222046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER
AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED 5PM TODAY THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING AREA OF MIXED PCPN ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NY AT 2025Z...WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ON STRONG S-SW WINDS OF 15-25
MPH (WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS). THAT SAID...STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS (20-25F DEPRESSIONS) AND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS ERN VT...WILL SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW...FOLLOWED BY INTERVALS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (TEMPS 30-32F).
OVERALL LOOKING AT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05" OR
LESS...BUT MAY CAUSE LIGHT ICING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES MAKING FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT FOR ERN SECTIONS OF
VT. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR INTERVALS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME
ICE PELLETS MIXED IN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW/ICE PELLETS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. CONTINUED SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL RESULT
IN SOME PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS. THUS...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
GENERALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AT
BTV...WITH LOWS IN THE 34-37F...RISING TO NEAR 38F AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD
YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST
SECTIONS.

DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO
OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO
35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY
THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO
SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY
BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
EAST WITH THE TRACK. LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. HAVE USED SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO DEPICT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY.
THEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAVE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL 
LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25 
TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 
KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY 
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE 
SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE 
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND 
SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     007-010-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI



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