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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 251726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY 
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL 
ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT
SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 114 PM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER WITH LATEST UPDATE
TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
VERMONT AT THIS TIME...WHILE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. THICKER CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS LIE JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO HOWEVER.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN NY MID PM BUT NOT IN
VERMONT TILL LATE PM/EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKING AT MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE
7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS
RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY
COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT
OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO
WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000
FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS.  FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH 
THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE 
NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING'S GLOBAL 
SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN 
PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND 
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB 
CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF 
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE 
SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF 
LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT 
INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE 
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 
565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING 
HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY 
SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO 
EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT 
INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT 
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT 
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN
THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY 
DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER 
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE'LL RETURN TO MORE FALL-
LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV
CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT
THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY.
HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BAND OF RAIN APPROACHING ALONG COLD FRONT.
FORECAST TO REACH ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 19Z...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
21-22Z AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR
INDICATE VIS TO REMAIN VFR IN PRECIP. AFTER PRECIP/FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW FRONTAL INVERSION WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEST AFT 00Z. OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY TERRAIN INDUCED RW/SW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
GENERALLY AWAY FROM TAF SITES SO DID NOT INCLUDE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW.

12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



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