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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 151122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE 
TO PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 
TODAY, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS 
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BEFORE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS BRING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...MORNING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
REPORTS COMING IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT OF 1-3"
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FILLING BACK IN AS EXPECTED AND
ADDITIONAL FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OF ANOTHER 1-3" STILL
LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH A NOTABLE BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO
A STRONG MID- LEVEL DRY SLOT. CURRENTLY STILL PRECIPITATING AS
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE WE HAVE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES IN PLACE, BUT EXPECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE'LL SEE
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THERE AS WELL WHEN THE DRY SLOT SHIFTS
EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN TO OUR WEST
UNDER THE CORE OF A POTENT UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
WHICH IS ALSO AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD. AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES, THE
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH PRECIPITATION
FILLING BACK IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER FROM CURRENT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND TO ALL
SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND FEEL CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD ACROSS WHERE WE HAVE ADVISORIES
IN PLACE, BUT HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION.

TEMPS REALLY GOING NOWHERE TODAY, STAYING RATHER STEADY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY, LOCALLY NEAR
30KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN ON CHANNELED NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT SUNDAY...PRECIP IS BASICALLY DONE BY MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL
ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AGAIN AS HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
FIRST FRONT CONDITIONS WILL TURN MILDER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WE'RE LIKELY TO
SEE A ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. MILD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 20S, AND HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 304 AM EDT SUNDAY...COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY DEPARTURES OF -10 TO -20F STILL LOOK ON
TRACK AS OLD MAN WINTER HOLDS ON AS LONG AS HE CAN. BEST CHANCE
FOR SCT SHSN/BRIEF SQUALLS AND ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DEGREE OF AIRMASS
MODERATION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUING TO
BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. FOR SAKE OF
CONTINUITY WILL ADVERTISE A BLENDED APPROACH HERE SHOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES EDGING BACK UP INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... IFR/MVFR THROUGH 21Z AS UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW TAPERS
OFF AND ENDS AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME AS SYSTEM
EXITS EAST WITH SKIES TRENDING VFR THEREAFTER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING MODESTLY
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, ABATING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODERATE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ABATES TO LIGHT BY 12Z.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
SHSN WITH POLAR FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SUBSEQUENT ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE 06-12Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     VTZ003-004-006>008-016.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



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