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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 310858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST
PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP
CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY. 

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



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