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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 301936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY FALL 
WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A 
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM...COOLER...CLOUDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY 
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER STILL PERSISTING ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND ALSO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...SEEING
SOME BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HAVE HAD TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE IN CLOUD
COVERED AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MONTPELIER (MPV) WHERE IT WAS STILL
59 AS OF 1 PM EDT...AND 56 AT MASSENA (MSS). CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...FROM TONIGHT ONWARD INTO THURSDAY
PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE/DRY FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NRN NY/VT WEATHER AS
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED H5 LOW SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND OFF THE
SOUTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST. CLOUDS AGAIN QUITE VARIABLE WITH
PARTIAL SUN EXPECTED HERE AND THERE...MOST PREVALENT CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST AND LESS SO EASTERN COUNTIES WITH EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER
EASTERLY MARITIME PUSH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH DAILY HIGHS WED/THU
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S (COOLEST ERN VT) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AND LOCKED IN ON THE UPCOMING
PATTERN SHIFT.

DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS 
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKING 
NORTHWARD TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. ATTENDING 
SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY WITH 
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO RICH GULF OF 
MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FEEL THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 
RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER SLOW...OFFERING A GOOD 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 
LOW END WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE PRONE REGIONS OF 
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG 50-60KT SOUTHEASTERLY JET 
AT 850MB PRE-FRONT. DOESN'T LOOK AS STRONG AT 925MB RIGHT NOW...BUT 
THEN AGAIN WE'RE LOOKING AT THE COARSE 40KM RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS. 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND 
INTO THE TIME-SCALE OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTIONS MODELS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE 
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THOUGH IN REALITY THEY WON'T BE TOO FAR FROM 
WHAT WE SHOULD BE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. WE'VE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR SO 
LONG THOUGH THAT IT'LL FEEL QUITE CHILLY. HIGH TEMPS SUN/MON/TUE 
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 40S ON 
THE MTN PEAKS...AND LOWS WILL RUN GENERALLY IN THE 40S VALLEYS TO 
30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BEFORE 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT INCREASING POPS AREA-WIDE FOR 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION FORECAST WOES CONTINUE FOR THE 18Z 
SUITE WITH LITERALLY ZERO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAVING A CLUE AS TO 
WHAT THE CURRENT OR FORECAST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE. THAT SAID...HAVE 
OFFERED BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS WHICH 
I'M FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT...BEYOND THAT...VERY MUCH LESS SO. STILL 
DEALING WITH A SOUTHEAST STRATUS DECK FROM BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS 
SLOWLY LIFTING BUT HAS PROGRESSED WESTWARD OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS 
INTO THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MEANWHILE STRATUS LAYER AT MSS 
FROM FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH ON NORTHEAST FLOW IS ALSO SLOWLY LIFTING 
OUT...AND KMSS SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF VFR COMING UP HERE SOON WITHIN 
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
SHIFTS SOUTH THINK WE'LL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS FROM VFR TO MVFR
AREA-WIDE WHERE MVFR ISN'T ALREADY PRESENT...AND REMAIN THERE
OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AT EACH TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE N-NE FROM KBTV WESTWARD...AND
SE AT KMPV/RUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 00Z THU...CEILINGS TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV WITH EAST FLOW.

00Z THU - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM
06-13Z EACH DAY.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







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