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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221720
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PULLS EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. FIRST OF A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A
BIT OF A BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MORE PRECIPITATION FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CROSSING WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EST MONDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALSO WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
FURTHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WARRANT
MENTION OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICING DUE TO LIGHT NATURE OF THE QPF. A LITTLE BIT OF
COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH COLD AIR OFF ATLANTIC ON
SOUTHEAST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

ON TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE MAINLY STAY WITH THE
ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS MAX
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S DESPITE THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS AS THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE CHANCE FOR
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MILD WITH CLOUDS
REMAINING IN PLACE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE STEADIER RAIN AND THE WIND PICKING UP WITH
LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MENTIONED FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WARM AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. PRETTY DECENT SLUG OF QPF TO IMPACT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA...AND INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE VERY MILD AND HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE FOR NOW. TEMPS MAX OUT ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST MONDAY...ASIDE FROM THE NAM MODEL, THE 00Z/22ND
GLOBAL NWP SUITE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS CONSENSUS
DEPICTION OF A SUB- 980MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THE LOW
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH
WARM- FRONTAL STEADY RAIN INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT, A BRIEF BREAK
WHERE RAIN MAY BE A BIT LIGHTER BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY MILD TEMPERATURES (LOWS
IN THE 40S CHRISTMAS EVE), AND EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"
LIKELY TO LEAD TO AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS ON MAINSTEM RIVERS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING. FROM A WIND PERSPECTIVE, GUIDANCE TREND SEEMS TO BE
DOWNPLAYING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS
DAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1-1.25", STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SUGGESTS A BAND OF AT
LEAST MODERATE RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION BECOMES
MORE OF AN UPSLOPE CHARACTER BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EARLY HIGHS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND PROGGED 850 MB WINDS OF 50+
KNOTS, WIND GUSTS MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONGER CHRISTMAS DAY THAN IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EARLY HIGHS IN THE 40S,
FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

I STARTED TO TREND TOWARD SUPERBLEND HEADING INTO THE FINAL
WEEKEND OF 2014 AS THERE'S MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN. GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR NEAR/JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z AND MOVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SNOW...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE-12Z WED...MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS.
SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...EVENSON/LOCONTO



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