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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



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