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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 021429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS 
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY 
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER AND
DEWPOINTS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE. LEANING MORE
TOWARD HRRR/RAP OUTPUT INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NY...THEN INTO VT BY EARLY EVENING. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL A POSSIBILITY...ESP DACKS
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SRN VT IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL BIG
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THIS FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST...AND HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE MORNING VCSH FROM TAF SITES TO FOCUS ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER...BUT CHANCES TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY 20-23Z
AND VT 22-01Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AS STORMS PASS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON






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