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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 141419
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRAG A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, AND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. ANY RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT SATURDAY...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. RADAR
INDICATING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND ALSO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY
FREE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND
POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING REMAINS.
AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE...AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE...THE RISK OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TREND TOWARDS
LESS PRECIPITATION AMONGST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED WITH
THE 00Z RUNS WITH THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING GENERALLY
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. THUS, OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WE WON'T
SEE ALL THAT MUCH PRECIP TODAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THIS MORNING THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP, BUT ANY FZDZ SHOULD
QUICKLY CHANGE TO PLAIN DZ BY MID-DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS RISE
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST FORCING LIES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN VERMONT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. A GENERAL
1-3" OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS, WITH 4-7" LIKELY IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, AND 6-12" ATOP THE HIGHEST
SUMMITS OF NORTHERN VERMONT FROM MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AND COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL
TREND TOWARDS CLEAR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER AGAIN AS
HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. BULK OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT SO READ ON FURTHER BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AND LARGELY
FOLLOWED A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
UNFORTUNATELY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT YET ANOTHER SHARP
AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHSN AND LOCALIZED SQUALLS. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, BUT BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY INTO
THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP POLAR LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOURCE OF THIS AIR IS CURRENTLY
RESIDING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ALASKA WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGED IN
THE -10 TO -20F RANGE ON FRIDAY. OF COURSE THIS WILL MODIFY
CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR LATITUDES, BUT SAFE TO SAY
DAILY DEPARTURES AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY WED/THU OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LEANED ON THE LOWER END
OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO MAX TEMPERATURES. SOME SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY BUT VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH 18Z AS
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PCPN MOVE INTO THE AREA. PCPN
SHOULD BE GENERALLY SPOTTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING STEADIER
THEREAFTER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW PIVOT INTO THE AREA.
SOME CONCERN THAT WHILE SPOTTY, THERMAL PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT KMSS TERMINAL THIS MORNING, AND POSSIBLY
AT KMPV TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING. CONFIDENCE OF -FZRA OCCURRENCE HIGHEST AT
KMSS. AFTER 00Z -RA AND/OR -RASN/-SN TREND STEADIER WITH UPPER
LOW APPROACH. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-SHSN
TAPERING OFF WITH LESS COVERAGE AFTER 15Z.

21Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SHSN
WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR 
     VTZ003-004-007.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



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