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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



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