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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 192336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN'T UNTIL
TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SATURDAY...LEFTOVER CLDS HAVE MELTED DURING THE
LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA. UPDATED
TEMP TRENDS AS TMPS IN SOME LOCALES ROSE ABOVE TREND LINES DUE TO
APRIL SS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST.


323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWSSOME
LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON'T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG
NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH
FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE
CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS TO
THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST
NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO
THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER COVERAGE
OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB RH. A NUMBER
OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. I'VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I'M NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS 
INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH 
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM 
CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN 
VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. QPF 
PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY. 
UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR 
A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL 
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH). UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY 
NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
EARLY TUESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF MODEL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL
HAVING SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TOUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE FOR A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS IN EARLIER IN THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
RAPIDLY DECREASING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNIG. NORTH WINDS TO 5 KTS THIS EVENING
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE
BUT ONLY TO 6-8 KTS. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  

OUTLOOK OOZ MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/SLW
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NF






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