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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 041959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE 
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND 
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK INTO THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THIS TIME...WITH STRONGEST STORMS NOW OVER 
SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY 
FURTHER NORTH WHERE STORMS MOVED THROUGH EARLIER...AND THE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ACROSS 
NORTHERN AREAS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK RECENTLY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO 
BECOME SEVERE. 

LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY THIS 
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE NEARLY 
STATIONARY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY USHER IN COOLER AND 
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. 
MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER 
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 
60S.

CONVECTION WILL DECREASE LATER ON THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN 
COUNTIES WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COULD STILL 
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES 
INTO THE REGION...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED. 
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT TUESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT RATHER NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN...AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DURING 
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES AS COOL 
POOL ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE 
LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHS A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A
SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC
FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY NOT BE A CONCERN TO US AND THAT IS A SOUTHERN 
STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS APPLACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE 
FRI/SAT WANTING TO MAKE A MOVE NNE TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT 
FOR NOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NOT TO THREATEN AREA. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL TROFINESS AND MARGINAL INSTABILIT PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW OF 
THIS WEEK DIMINISHS A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SPLIT 
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOE NE 
NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...FRI AND SAT LOOK DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MAX T 
IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE 
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR PREDOMINATES...BUT EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS THRU 00Z
WED. SHOWERS/STORMS END BY EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 10 KTS BY EVENING.

VFR WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED -SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE WITH MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV-KSLK BETWEEN 07-12Z.

SCT -SHRA IN DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY IN NY AFT 15Z WED.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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