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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290455
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1155 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS 
IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY 
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS STRETCH ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER.
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS ARE SUBZERO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS TO STAY
ABOVE ZERO WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER SUMMITS AS AN
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY 
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING 
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG
THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND
LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SOME SHADOWING ACROSS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z
FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR
EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING
LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN
ADDITION...SYSTEM WILL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS.
FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW WITH
LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE
MTNS.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER
LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR
WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND
ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY 
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP. 
EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING
OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL
BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -20F
AND -40F ACROSS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND 
ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK 
CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN'T PHASE WITH THE 
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER 
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS 
RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO 
OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH 
CAN'T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY'S MODELS AND WHILE I'VE BACKED OFF A 
LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC 
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS 
TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A 
BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR 
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING AT MSS/SLK...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AND
IMPACTS WILL COME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY AT MOST SITES ON THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS AT MSS WILL TURN NORTHEAST
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN
SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI



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