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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 242328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS IN
STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH
MORE SHOWERS FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER WISE,
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE BEING EXACTLY WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR -- WHICH HAS A BIG POTENTIAL ON HOW COLD IT COULD GET.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-EVENING, WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH CLEARING FINALLY
TAKING PLACE JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. 

GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS, HAVE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR EASTERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO A BLEND/COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE END IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 30S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK (PERHAPS SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF
THE 'DACKS). MEANWHILE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS VERMONT -- MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S. 

I SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF FOG IN ANY LOCATION THAT HAS A
FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WANTING TO DO MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY
REQUIRING DRY WEATHER, SHOULD PLAN FOR SATURDAY. THOSE THAT WANT
TO GO SNOWFLAKE CHASING SHOULD PLAN FOR SUNDAY. KEEP READING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY: THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
SO WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN, HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, MID/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME SUN, SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION -- ACTUALLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 60S OFF TO OUR WEST IN ONTARIO, I HAVE SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. COULD BE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOME VALLEY
REGIONS (DEPENDANT UPON HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE).

MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL START STREAMING IN FROM WEST TO EAST, AND
SHOULD THICKEN ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH IS A FAST
MOVER, SO SHOWERS WILL REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING
AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT NO LATER THAN MID-EVENING. DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN -- LESS THAN 1/4" SHOULD
DO IT.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT WITH FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH STILL ALLOWING FOR CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WE
SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE OROGRAPHICALLY LOCKED.
HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE GREENS AND 'DACKS,
LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO COOL, SO
THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS
(3500FT+) BY LATE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER
UNIFORM -- LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AT ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST
FOLKS LIVE.

SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. SUSPECT
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 2500FT BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE
SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT LEAST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THAT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH COLD AIR COMING
IN ALOFT, THIS WILL GENERATE PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL,
ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD MIXING TO BRING DOWN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH AT TIMES.

SUNDAY NIGHT: OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS FILTERING IN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, SO THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME -- BUT THINK 30S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
EXCEPT LOW 40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY AS THE REGION STILL
REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THIS
COLD FRONT. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WHICH BETTER FITS
PREVIOUS CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN
ACROSS VERMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SEVERAL TAF LOCATIONS NOW VFR...AND REMAINING
TO IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...AND WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER
TO MAINTAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBS SHOWING CLEARING LINE FROM ABOUT KMSS STRAIGHT SOUTH...WITH A
FEW HOURS CLEAR BEFORE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES IN TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD LIFR FOG AT KMPV AFTER
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...AND CONTINUED WITH THIS FORECAST AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DID NOT FORECAST FG/LIFR AT
KSLK AS RAIN HELD OFF THERE. VFR CIGS TO MOVE IN WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED RW IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON



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