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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 240905
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
505 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN
VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE
CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT
SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND 18Z- 22Z.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES
YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL
SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW
WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH
VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH ISOLATED
READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

WILL CONTINUE T0 HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN HWO...AS WELL AS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER







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