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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 261506
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 944 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS
OVERSPREADING FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN CENTRAL VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM.
INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO
INITIAL SNOW WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF
ICE BENEATH THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW
VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO BIG
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RUNNING JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THINKING SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS WHAT WE'RE IN FOR. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINTER
RETURNS ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY
UNDER A MID-LEVEL DECK BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z
AND RAPIDLY SPREADS NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. SNOW ENDS AFTER 08Z NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 10-11Z VERMONT WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING IFR TRENDS TO MVFR AS
LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ005-016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>012-017>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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