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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220824
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...BUT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1223 AM EST MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CLOUDS AS OF 9 PM
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SOME 2-3 DEGREES
BASED OFF LATEST GUIDANCE AND TD VALUES. EARLIER MINS APPEARED
JUST A TAD TOO COOL. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A FEW STRAY FLURRIES HERE AND THERE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP A THERMAL PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
NEVERTHELESS SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ALL RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STEADIER RAIN AND WIND STILL
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST MONDAY...ASIDE FROM THE NAM MODEL, THE 00Z/22ND
GLOBAL NWP SUITE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS CONSENSUS
DEPICTION OF A SUB- 980MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THE LOW
WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STILL BE CONTENDING WITH
WARM- FRONTAL STEADY RAIN INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT, A BRIEF BREAK
WHERE RAIN MAY BE A BIT LIGHTER BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY MILD TEMPERATURES (LOWS
IN THE 40S CHRISTMAS EVE), AND EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"
LIKELY TO LEAD TO AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES FROM CURRENT
LEVELS ON MAINSTEM RIVERS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING. FROM A WIND PERSPECTIVE, GUIDANCE TREND SEEMS TO BE
DOWNPLAYING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS 
DAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1-1.25", STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SUGGESTS A BAND OF AT
LEAST MODERATE RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION BECOMES
MORE OF AN UPSLOPE CHARACTER BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EARLY HIGHS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND PROGGED 850 MB WINDS OF 50+
KTS, WIND GUSTS MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONGER CHRISTMAS DAY THAN IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EARLY HIGHS IN THE 40S, FALLING
THROUGH THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

I STARTED TO TREND TOWARD SUPERBLEND HEADING INTO THE FINAL WEEKEND 
OF 2014 AS THERE'S MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. 
GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR NEAR/JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES. 


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MOSTLY DUE TO
PERSISTENT STRATUS, TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAFS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. INTERVALS OF MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST OF THE
TAFS GIVEN VERY LIGHT BL FLOW, SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND WEAK
INVERSION. ANY MIST TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. WINDS VERY LIGHT
TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY 4-6 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAINLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. WHILE LOW- LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED, EXPECT P-TYPE TO INIIALLY BE A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE,
BECOMING A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX AS COLUMN SATURATES FURTHER. I'VE
MENTIONED P-TYPE AT RUT BUT KEPT IT TO VCSH ELSEWHERE AS RUT HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE-12Z WED...MOSTLY MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS.
SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST THRU THE DAY. 

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO



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