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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 260651
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON
SATURDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. 6-9 SM VISIBILITIES FROM HAZE CAUSED FROM SMOKE
PLUME ALOFT ARE MORE IN THE 8-9 SM RANGE PER AREA METARS. I'VE
OPTED TO EXTEND HAZY CONDITIONS A FEW HOURS LONGER WITH STILL SOME
MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TAKING PLACE...THOUGH IT'S
OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE HARDER TO SEE NOW WITH NIGHTFALL.

REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP. BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE TO BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS NOW ACROSS ONTARIO/WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAS BOTH OF
THESE ASPECTS COVERED PRETTY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. FEEL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL DURING THE
DAY AND IT WILL TAKE BETTER FORCING THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVES IN. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVENTUALLY GETS IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUS LOOKING AT
SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. EVENTUALLY THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
HOWEVER AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING DIMINISHES DURING THE WEEK...ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL 
SHAPING UP TO BE MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF UPPER 
TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED 
WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF LIKELY POPS...BUT RISK OF THUNDER MINIMAL 
SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED IN GRIDS. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO MAINE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS 
FOCUSED ACROSS VERMONT. 

UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DIFFICULT 
TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH...AND 
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WITH COOL POOL ALOFT...BEST CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCE 
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR 
LOW CHANCE POPS MOST DAYS...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 850 MB 
TEMPS THEN PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN AROUND +10 C TUE/WED THEN 
MODERATING SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS 
SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...MODERATING TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED UNDER WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW.  

THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LOCAL IFR/VLIFR IN FOG AND STRATUS
7-12Z AT KMPV/KSLK WHERE CROSSOVER TEMP HAS BEEN MET.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT S-SW...THOUGH LOCALLY SW AROUND 10
KTS AT KMSS WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW AND CHANNELING IN
THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. 

GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS BECG SWLY AROUND 10
KTS AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF
SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TOWARD 06Z SUN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUN - 12Z MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.

12Z MON - 00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON






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