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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 211120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE'LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT'LL FEEL LIKE IT'S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR. 

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







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