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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 252002
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL TAPER 
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE CLEARING WILL BE 
SHORT-LIVED AS COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE 
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY 
ALONG WITH SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE COOL-DOWN WILL BE 
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION 
MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY 
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST OBS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO 
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. AS EXPECTED THIS BULK OF THE 
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE 
SYNOPTIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 
JET AND MAXIMUM DPVA ALOFT ALONG THE NOMINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT 
HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT IS FOCUSED. 
HENCE...EXPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW 
YORK TO BE LARGELY DRY CONSISTING OF A PERIOD OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER 
FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT/FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON 
INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE 
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGIN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT 
CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...THE DEARTH OF 
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE 
ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER 
DOWN-LAKE FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY 
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY 
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO 
FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE 
FLOW FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD 
COVER. 

LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDINESS WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY 
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN 
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH LAKE 
ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WILL LANGUISH UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...BUT DRY WEATHER. THE COOL 
AIRMASS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 
50S...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN LIKELY STAYING LOCKED IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK 
AND NEW ENGLAND. A LINGERING SHOWER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTH 
COUNTRY EARLY...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. 

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD OVER THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE. THIS 
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...WHICH COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL 
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 30S ACROSS WNY. REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST 
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT. 

WHILE THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS OUR REGION ON 
MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FORMING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN MONDAY 
AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE EJECTS OFF THE CENTRAL US ROCKY MOUNTAINS. 
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL GO FROM KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF CHICAGO 
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE DAY. 

THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW 
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH 
WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE 
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. 

THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CUT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A 
COLD FRONT FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR 
REGION...AND WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL WAVERING ON THE GLOBAL 
MODELS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG 
THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA WILL START TUESDAY DRY WITH EVEN SOME 
SUNNY BREAKS. THIS SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL 
BRING THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 
70S ACROSS THE REGION. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE 
FOLLOWING...BUFFALO...74/1946...ROCHESTER...76/1984...AND WATERTOWN 
75/1984. IF THIS FRONT IS DELAYED ENOUGH...WE MAY CHALLENGE SOME OF 
THESE RECORDS BEFORE COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. 

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY 
NIGHT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL PROGRESSIVELY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOW GREAT LAKES 
REGION...WHILE ALOFT A BROAD SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN. AS THE AIR 
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL BEHIND A RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGE (850 
HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ZERO WEDNESDAY 
MORNING DOWN TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT) LIGHT 
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL FROM TIME TO TIME EAST AND 
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL BE 
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS...THE BULK OF THE 
TIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY. 

THIS COOLING ALOFT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE 
WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. 

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE 
ARRIVAL/PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POOL OF COLD 
AIR. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DROP THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND FORMS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE 
VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT 
LAKES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY/SLIGHT 
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST ON OUR 
DOORSTEP...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO GUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO 40KT 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS FUNNEL 
DOWN LAKE ERIE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH 
OF WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING 
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND 
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER 
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF 
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING 
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH 
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES 
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT 
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN 
TOWARDS KGTB.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS 
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING 
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT 
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER 
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS 
WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL 
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF 
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS 
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY EVEN AS IT VEERS 
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FLOW AND COLD 
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN WAVES IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON LAKE ERIE 
AND 6 TO 8 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE 
LAKES...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR WAVE 
ACTION ON SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO TO SETTLE...UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. 
AFTER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS 
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE 
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







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