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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250019
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS 
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY 
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS 
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN 
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW 
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY 
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND MUCH OF OF THE NIAGARA 
FRONTIER...EVEN TO THE METRO ROCHESTER AREA. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE 
OF THE FRONT...THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME MUCH STEEPER 
AND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE RISES WILL AID IN PUSHING THESE 
HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONG WIND EXPECTED MUCH OF THE 
NIGHT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR BROKE RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON 
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SNOW COVER 
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY 
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER 
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40 
DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER 
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL 
FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY 
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL 
SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY 
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND 
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT 
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. 
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP 
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. 
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN 
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES 
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME 
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION 
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED 
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING 
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE 
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A 
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED 
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE 
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE 
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING 
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY 
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW 
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE 
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE 
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES 
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS 
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT 
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW 
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED 
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE 
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING 
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT 
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST 
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM 
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF 
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS 
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY 
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER 
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES 
AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS 
ACROSS WESTERN NY AROUND 50KT AT 00Z THEN DIMINISHING TO 35-40KT 
AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL 
REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR 
CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE. 

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE 
LAKES. 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS 
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM 
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC 
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING 
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A 
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES. 

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH 
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. 
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN 
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-007-
     010>012-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-005-013-014-
     020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-
         042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR 
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD







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