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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 291426
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL 
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. 
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH 
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH 
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND. DRY 
AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY 
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD 
PROGRESS OF DPVA AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES 
AND INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF A 
WEAK WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THICKER 
CLOUDS ARE ON THE DOORSTEP OF FAR WESTERN NY AND THE NORTH 
COUNTRY...WHILE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY WILL SEE SUNSHINE 
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. 

WITH SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THE GENESEE VALLEY AND 
CENTRAL NY WILL REACH TO NEAR 80 TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S MORE 
COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH AN EARLIER ONSET 
OF THICKER CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NE OH/WRN PA THAT MAY 
ALSO CLIP FAR SW NY LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY 
BUT DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS ON SUNDAY WILL 
FEATURE AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS 
AND PLAINS STATES. FURTHER EAST...BROAD/WEAK TROUGHING AND AN 
ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED FROM THE 
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTH TO WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS IS WHAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY 
LEVEL BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST AND THE START OF SEPTEMBER. 

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING OUR 
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STILL PROVIDE MINIMAL LIFT TO 
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A 
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE 
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST... ALBEIT WEAK...INSTABILITY AND CLOSER 
TO DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE 
MOVES OVERHEAD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY 
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH VERY 
MILD AND HUMID OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL 
TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF LARGELY DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER-LIKE 
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN 
THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTLY LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 
60S. LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME BREAKING DOWN OF 
THE RIDGE BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AROUND 
THURSDAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSING SOUTH 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT COULD TRIGGER SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE 
GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE WARM AND HUMID 
AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL A MORE CLEAR 
PICTURE CAN BE SEEN IN GUIDANCE. NO REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE 
ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS GREATER THAN 12KFT 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3500-5000FT ACROSS WNY THIS 
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THE 
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. 
 
 
OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS / ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR. 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE 
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



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