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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 311756
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1256 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH 
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS 
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING STEADY AND 
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWS TO MOST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF 
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS CAUSING SOME LIGHT LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SOUTH OF THE LAKE WHICH ARE LIMITED 
BY DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS. IT WILL REMAIN COLD 
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS 
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK WHILE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO STAYS IN THE 
COLDEST AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND 
REACH THE NY/PA STATE LINE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN AHEAD OF THIS 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE AROUND -13C AT 850MB WHICH IS MARGINALLY 
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z 
NAM/RGEM BRIEFLY SHOW A WELL ALIGNED WNW FLOW DOWN LAKE ONTARIO 
AROUND 06Z WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SE 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (WRF/ARW) ALSO 
HINT AT THIS IN QPF FIELDS. THIS MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO TO 
WAYNE/N CAYUGA/OSWEGO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MODEST LAKE 
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING BUT JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE 
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

00Z BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED (BUT SOME) MID-LEVEL 
MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT. IF THIS MOISTURE IS NOT AMPLE TO PRODUCE 
CLOUDS AND SOME SEEDING...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN AREAS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLDER NORTH. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 
WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD END THE RISK FOR FREEZING 
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS 
TOO LOW FOR ANY HEADLINES...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE 
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR NY WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...

LATEST 31/00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT 
WINTER STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL 
NEW YORK. IN THE MID-LEVELS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 
EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE 
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS TRACK THE CENTER 
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY 
NIGHT THEN ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER ON MONDAY. THIS IS A FAVORABLE 
TRACK FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS SYNOPTIC 
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL COMBINE WITH 
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. 

A BLEND OF 00Z WPC AND GLOBAL MODEL QPF WAS USED IN THIS LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE TO PRODUCE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS. THE QPF BLEND
WAS COMBINED WITH SMOOTHED HOURLY COBB METHOD SLR VALUES TO YIELD
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS OF ABOUT 10:1 SUNDAY INCREASING TO ABOUT 14:1
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CLOSE TO 16:1 ON MONDAY ALL AS A COLDER AIRMASS
LOWERS THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE TO THE SURFACE PRODUCING
MORE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. STORM TOTAL FORECAST SNOW
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 8-10 INCHES ALONG THE NY-PA BORDER TO 2-4 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY SHARP
GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM.

THE STORM WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY WITH SNOWFALL 
TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE 
ONTARIO WILL BRING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS 
MONDAY NIGHT BUT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 5KFT OR LESS WILL KEEP THE 
MULTI-BANDED SNOWS VERY SHALLOW.

COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND AN INCREASE IN FORECAST 
CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z MODELS RUNS HAS LED TO ISSUANCE OF A WINTER 
STORM WATCH BEGINNING 7AM SUNDAY FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND 
WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING 
CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS EXISTS. FOR THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO 
AREAS AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER 
TO ADVISORY LEVEL SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING. IF 
LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM NORTH 
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS BY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR BUFFALO AND 
ROCHESTER WHICH MAY REQUIRE A WATCH OR WARNING WITH LATER UPDATES. 
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES AT THE STORM EVOLVES.

A COLD NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE 
TEENS SUNDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EVEN BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AS THE STORM DEEPENS WILL 
LIKELY BRING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE -TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE 
-TWENTIES FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED...WEAK LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD LIFT 
NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY FALL APART ALTOGETHER ON TUESDAY AS THE 
FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE 
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE LATTER THEN BRINGING A BRIEF PUSH OF 
"MILDER" AIR AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE 
OF THIS SYSTEM...RENEWED ARCTIC COLD AND AT LEAST SOME LAKE ONTARIO 
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS 
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM W-E. THIS WILL INITIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...BUT EXPECT SNOW TO AND
AND CIGS TO RISE BEHIND IT. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD LAST INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
DROPS FROM N-S AND BRINGS SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IFR IN SNOW IN MOST AREAS...VFR/MVFR 
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AT ART.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND IT. THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. EACH OF
THESE SYSTEMS MAY PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING 
     FOR NYZ003>006-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-002-010-011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING 
     FOR NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...APFFEL




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