Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 230132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY 
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING 
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE 
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD 
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR 
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.
OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CLIPPING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE. 

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY 
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE 
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY. 
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER 
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER 
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES 
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT 
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION 
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN 
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF 
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH 
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS 
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING 
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A 
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. 
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY 
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR 
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY 
MORNING. 

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR 
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT 
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS 
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY. 

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING 
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN 
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL 
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND 
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING 
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF 
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 01Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR
HAS REACHED ROC/JHW...AND RAISED CIGS TO MVFR AT THESE
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT JHW. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
 
OUTLOOK...   
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART. 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES. 
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES. 

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES 
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE 
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy