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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011902
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF 
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY 
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE 
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A 
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER 
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION 
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SO FAR SNOW PRODUCTION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY LACKLUSTER AS 
THE INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY 
THIS MORNING LARGELY FELL APART TO FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW. 
THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS 
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BUT EVEN THERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE 
LIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A MORE 
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS NORTHERN 
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE STREAKS ENE INTO OUR REGION.

THIS EVENING THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER AS A BROAD MID 
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME SOUTHERN 
STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING FROM THE 
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 
MID LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. 
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE 
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH SOME ADDED CONVERGENCE AND 
LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF A 60 KNOT 700MB JET. 

GIVEN THE ABOVE...EXPECT THE STEADIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM LATE 
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...AND EARLY EVENING 
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AS 
THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE UNDER-PERFORMING SNOW 
TODAY WE HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS... 
WITH TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR TO 
JEFFERSON COUNTY AND EVEN A LITTLE UNDER 2 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE 
CANADIAN BORDER. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER PICKED UP MORE INITIALLY 
WITH THE FIRST BATCH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ALSO DO BEST WITH THE 
SECOND WAVE SO TOTALS MAY STILL REACH THE 3-5 INCH RANGE THERE. 
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND SOUTHWEST 
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 3-5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS 
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN THESE TWO AREAS 
TO COVER THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO 
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID 
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW 
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON 
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE 
OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT 
THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT 
THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN 
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING. 

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO 
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY. 
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON... 
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND 
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE 
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE 
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN 
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE
SUBSIDENCE BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK ENDS THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MONDAY FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON 
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING 
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS 
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH 
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR 
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME 
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO 
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A 
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF 
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING 
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD 
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES 
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY 
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY. 

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN 
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH 
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE 
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED 
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE 
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR 
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS 
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS 
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK 
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE 
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO 
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO 
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY 
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER 
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE 
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.  

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK 
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO 
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH 
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT 
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY 
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH 
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF 
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE 
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE 
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF 
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS 
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW 
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT 
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM 
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.  

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND 
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW 
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR 
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER 
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW 
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX. 
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. 
BECOMING WINDY. 
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION 
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE 
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS 
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE 
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO 
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING 
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS. 
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE 
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO 
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER 
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE 
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934. 

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW 
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW 
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW 
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY... 
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH 
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF 
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD 
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES. 
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH 
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE 
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL 
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS 
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF 
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY... 
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH 
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF 
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH 
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES. 
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH 
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F 
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS 
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL 
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS 
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO 
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS 
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY... 
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES 
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE 
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008-
     019>021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





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