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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES 
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING THE STEADIER RAIN EAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO MAKING SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW 
ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS STEADIER RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE REGION IS MOSTLY DRY...WITH JUST A FEW 
SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE NIAGARA RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A 
BRIEF PASSING SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN 
HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER 
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE 
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO 
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. 

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL 
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR 
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING 
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A 
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING 
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND 
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE 
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND 
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY 
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE 
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH 
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A 
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY 
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME 
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE 
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM 
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. 
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST 
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER 
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. 

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND 
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT 
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO 
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW 
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH 
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY 
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW 
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY 
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END 
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. 

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING 
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS 
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY 
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND 
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING 
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A 
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP 
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS 
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT 
SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE 
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG 
WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST 
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY 
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER 
SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE 
MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP 
WITH LOCAL IFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES 
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO 
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS 
AND POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. 

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS 
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND 
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE 
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK... 
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS 
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO 
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT. 
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND 
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR





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