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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 230829
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
429 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY...MERCURY 
LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS LAKE 
ONTARIO TO A PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING. 
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PIVOTING SOUTH FROM 
LAKE ONTARIO/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED 
WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS 
LOOK TO BE EMBEDDED WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SOAK WITH AVERAGE QPF 
OF 0.10-0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND 
NORTH COUNTY ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 DEGREES BUT LOWER 30S ARE FOUND 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY 
PIVOT JUST TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH ONLY 
A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. THERE MAY 
BE SOME PATCHY AREAS WHERE THE TEMP DROPS TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING 
AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW 
IN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST 
AS ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW 
GROWTH ZONE AND WARMER THAN -10C WHICH SUPPORTS DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.

LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT TO PIVOT SOUTH 
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING 
DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE 
UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES. A RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH 
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST 
TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS WILL 
HELP ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NEW YORK WHICH WILL ACT TO 
ERODE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS FROM THE LAKE SHORES INLAND. SUNSHINE 
SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS WNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CNY BY 
EARLY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WILL 
KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO 
BREAK OUT OF THE 40S OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BREEZY 
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER WITH WIND CHILLS IN 
THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW YORK STATE WITH 
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH 
FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S 
INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. 
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL 
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A 
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB 
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. 
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MID 
50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE 
ERIE SHORELINE COOLER. 

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH 
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE 
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR 
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT 
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN 
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST 
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE 
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL 
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT 
THE MENTION OF THUNDER. 

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD 
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70 
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY 
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A 
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER 
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED 
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC 
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT... 
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A 
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS 
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH 
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH 
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM... 
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE 
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN 
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR 
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH 
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF 
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS 
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS 
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS 
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO 
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE 
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF 
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY 
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE 
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS 
LAKE ONTARIO. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN AND 
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 
MVFR/IFR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIZZLE/SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL 
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
SHIFT EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES OUT TO 
VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR. 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS 
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO 
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS 
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND 
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH







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