000
FXUS61 KBUF 241448
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM 
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE 
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING 
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES 
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WORKING INTO THE 
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS 
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING EXPANSIVE AREA OF OVERCAST. IT MIGHT BE AWHILE 
UNTIL WE SEE SOME CLEARING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME LIMITED
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE 
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM 
IF DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRISK NORTHWEST 
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO 
THE AIR.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF 
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL 
REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST 
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A 
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. 
FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN 
CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S 
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES 
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST EXISTS. 
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG 
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE 
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. 
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE 
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST 
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD 
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO 
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY. 
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME 
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS 
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS 
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE 
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD 
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST 
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. 

HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER 
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER 
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM 
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN 
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT 
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT 
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO 
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER 
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS 
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD 
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE 
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE 
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS 
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL 
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS 
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST. 


OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL 
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON 
         FOR LOZ030-042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP