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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260136
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
936 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE 
WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
SUNDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE COOL-DOWN WILL 
BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION 
MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY 
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS 
EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WORKING ACROSS THE 
REGION. AS OF 01Z...RADAR IS SHOWING AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TOWARD THE 
GENESEE VALLEY. THIS HAS SPRUNG UP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING 
LAKE ONTARIO BENEATH SHARPLY LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED 
STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO COVER FOR 
THIS. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS FAR WEST AS BUFFALO WITH 
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER BEING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA AS THE 
CELLS MOVE OFF THE LAKE. 

LATER TONIGHT THIS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF 
THE LAKES. THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ALOFT /LESS THAN 10KFT/ 
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER DOWN-LAKE 
FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY PROXIMITY 
TO THE UPPER LOW PRESSING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL 
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST-SOUTHEAST 
OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 
40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE 
STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER. 

LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDINESS WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY 
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN 
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH LAKE 
ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WILL LANGUISH UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...BUT DRY WEATHER. THE COOL 
AIRMASS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 
50S...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN LIKELY STAYING LOCKED IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK 
AND NEW ENGLAND. A LINGERING SHOWER MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTH 
COUNTRY EARLY...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. 

HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD OVER THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE. THIS 
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...WHICH COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL 
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD 30S ACROSS WNY. REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST 
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT. 

WHILE THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS OUR REGION ON 
MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FORMING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN MONDAY 
AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE EJECTS OFF THE CENTRAL US ROCKY MOUNTAINS. 
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL GO FROM KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF CHICAGO 
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE DAY. 

THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW 
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH 
WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE 
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. 

THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CUT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A 
COLD FRONT FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR 
REGION...AND WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL WAVERING ON THE GLOBAL 
MODELS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATER TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG 
THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA WILL START TUESDAY DRY WITH EVEN SOME 
SUNNY BREAKS. THIS SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH MILD SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL 
BRING THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 
70S ACROSS THE REGION. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE THE 
FOLLOWING...BUFFALO...74/1946...ROCHESTER...76/1984...AND WATERTOWN 
75/1984. IF THIS FRONT IS DELAYED ENOUGH...WE MAY CHALLENGE SOME OF 
THESE RECORDS BEFORE COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. 

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY 
NIGHT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL PROGRESSIVELY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOW GREAT LAKES 
REGION...WHILE ALOFT A BROAD SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN. AS THE AIR 
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL BEHIND A RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGE (850 
HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ZERO WEDNESDAY 
MORNING DOWN TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT) LIGHT 
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL FROM TIME TO TIME EAST AND 
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL BE 
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS...THE BULK OF THE 
TIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY. 

THIS COOLING ALOFT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE 
WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. 

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE 
ARRIVAL/PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POOL OF COLD 
AIR. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DROP THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND FORMS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE 
VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT 
LAKES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY/SLIGHT 
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT 
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE 
REGION. CIGS BRIEFLY SCATTERED OUT SOME BUT CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION 
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TONIGHT. A 
CLUSTER OF -TSRA HAS EVEN DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO 
WHICH MAY CROSS KROC AROUND 02Z. 

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK. EAST AND 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH 
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE 
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT. 
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT 
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS THINNING TO SCT/FEW OVERNIGHT ACROSS WNY 
BUT HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS CNY. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND A FRONT WILL PERSIST 
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS IT VEERS TO THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL 
MAINTAIN WAVES IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON LAKE ERIE AND 6 TO 8 FEET 
ON LAKE ONTARIO. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO 
SPRUNG UP OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE 
LAKES...HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER FOR WAVE 
ACTION ON SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO TO SETTLE...UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. 
AFTER RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS 
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE 
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD







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