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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 290254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT... 
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET 
UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR 
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A 
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY 
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS 
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT 
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY 
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A 
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT 
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE 
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE 
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON 
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S 
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME 
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER 
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS. 
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND 
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW 
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE 
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK 
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL 
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER 
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE 
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL 
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO 
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 03Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT
BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND 
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON 
TUESDAY. 

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT 
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH 
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE 
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE 
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF 
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY 
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY. 

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH 
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER'S HISTORY. BELOW 
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER'S HISTORY WHICH DATES 
BACK TO 1871. 


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873 
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST 
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON 
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY 
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/TMA
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




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