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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 182123
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
523 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE 
BRINGS FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF NEW 
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD PUSHING 
INTO WESTERN NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE CLOUD SHIELD...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND 
SPRINKLES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A 
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO 
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN 
FREE. 

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY BUILD SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING 
SKIES TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING 
BEFORE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS 
THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY 
HOLDING TONIGHT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT'S LOW 30S. SATURDAY HIGHS 
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT OVER THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD 
WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL 
MAKE ITS WAY ASHORE AND EVENTUALLY HELP TO GENERATE OUR NEXT BIG 
WEATHER MAKER NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM 
DISCUSSION BELOW. UP THROUGH THAT TIME THOUGH...THERE WILL BE NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO DEAL WITH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND ALL 
THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST...PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH GENERALLY 
STARLIT SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO 
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO OUR MINS WILL 
RANGE FROM WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER THE WRN COUNTIES 
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

THE HEART OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS 
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF 
BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND 
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO OUR H85 TEMPS...WHICH 
IN TURN WILL SUPPORT A WARMER AFTERNOON (COMPARED TO SAT) AS MOST OF 
WRN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS OF 65 TO 70. IT WILL BE A LITTLE 
COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND CERTAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE 
MILES OF THE LAKES WHERE WELL DEVELOPED LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS 
COULD CAP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE 
WILL CRUISE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY. THE CORRESPONDING LOWERING HGTS AND DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CONSOLIDATE A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE ANY REAL
BAROCLINICITY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EVEN NICER DAY FOR MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF
WRN NEW YORK WITH LOW-MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO (AGAIN...NOTABLY
COOLER ALONG THE LAKE SHORES).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY 
NIGHT AS THE CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND 
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP. SOME SHOWERS COULD 
BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE...PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS 
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 
CHANGEABLE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AVERAGING TOO FAR FROM 
NORMAL. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...DRY WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE 
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN EVENTS WITH UNDER A 
QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN TUES/TUES NIGHT AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS 
PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY.

ON TUESDAY...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH WHILE IT 
WILL PUSH ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY 
PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY 
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE BASE OF ITS SUPPORTING 
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THESE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL 
BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO. 

IN FACT...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL 
HELP TO IMPROVE THE WEATHER OVER THE WRN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY...AN 
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY 
MORNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN 
PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER 
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 21Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY WITH 
LOWERING CIGS AND SOME -SHRA.  HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE -SHRA THE 
FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS. VFR 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES WILL 
SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER 
TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH VFR/UNLIMITED CIGS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. 
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/CHANCE SHOWERS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS 
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER 
LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...AR/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR/LEVAN
MARINE...AR/LEVAN







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