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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231432
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A 
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER 
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER 
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION 
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE 
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD 
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL 
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS 
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD 
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM 
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO 
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL 
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH 
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER. 

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS 
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND 
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR 
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS 
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45 
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY 
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH 
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE 
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC 
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD 
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS 
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85 
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS 
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET 
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS 
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR... 
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW 
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL 
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION 
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE 
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED 
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER 
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. 

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...  
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT 
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM 
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST 
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK 
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS 
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S. 

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS 
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK 
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND 
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE 
RAIN FREE. 

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85 
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE 
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A 
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS 
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE. 

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID 
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED 
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR 
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND 
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY 
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST 
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE 
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. 

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A 
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS 
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS 
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN 
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48 
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS 
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF 
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY. 

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A 
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED 
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL 
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE 
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW 
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES. 

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE 
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF 'COLD' AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH 
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE 
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT... 
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY 
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF 
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST 
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING 
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL 
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS 
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT 
OVER TIME.
 
OUTLOOK...   
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR 
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER 
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH 
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST 
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS 
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL 
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR







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