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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 220816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF 
A STRONG COLD FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING 
CONFINED TO ONLY THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH 
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEW YORK WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE EARLY FALL WEATHER...ALONG 
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF THIS WRITING...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IS AWASH IN 
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING SPOTTY DRIZZLE... 
SPRINKLES...AND LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF A
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OF MUCH COOLER AIR AND FAIRLY PLENTIFUL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED AS IT CROSSES
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF DEEP UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY TO 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...BEFORE PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR 
REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...BURGEONING HIGH PRESSURE AND 
DRIER AIR CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL 
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE SETTLING 
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.

WHILE ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN OUR WEATHER...THIS 
PROCESS WILL ONLY BE VERY GRADUAL THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE FLOW...AS WELL AS LAKE INFLUENCES DUE TO THE 
COOL AIRMASS THAT WILL BE PLACE ALOFT. TOGETHER...THESE WILL KEEP 
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF 
TODAY...WITH ANY PARTIAL CLEARING LARGELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS 
EVENING. IN ADDITION...ANY SPOTTY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL ALSO 
ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH...ENDING FIRST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 
BY MIDDAY/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND LAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER ON TONIGHT...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE 
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSES IN OUR DIRECTION 
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD 
OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY WITH A LITTLE PATCHY VALLEY FOG FORMING 
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WILL DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE 
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO CELSIUS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED 
WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPS 
LIKELY GETTING NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TODAY...AND THESE 
WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER OWING TO A CONTINUED FRESH NORTHWESTERLY 
BREEZE. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO 
MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 30S SPRINKLED IN ACROSS THE 
DEEPEST INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COMMANDING...BROAD BASED RIDGE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY PLACING A PROTECTIVE DOME OF 
DRY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE COUNTRY. WHILE THIS STAUNCH FAIR WEATHER 
GIANT WILL INITIALLY SPAN FROM COAST TO COAST...A TRAIN OF 
SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL FEED INTO AND DEEPEN 
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BUCKLE THE 
FLOW A BIT AND PROMOTE AMPLIFICATION OF THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SO THAT BY LATE WEEK...PROFOUND HEIGHT DEPARTURES 
WILL BE FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.   

THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER 
FOR OUR REGION WITH A GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THAT WILL 
SEND OUR TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE A 
LOT OF DETAILS TO COVER WITHIN THIS UNUSUAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT 
LETS TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN A BIT ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS. 

AS WE OPEN THIS STRETCH ON TUESDAY...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT 
OVER QUEBEC WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND 
NEW ENGLAND STATES. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (JEFF/LEWIS CO'S) TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FEEL 
THAT THE BULK OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE 
ADIRONDACKS. WILL CARRY SLGT CHC POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TUG... 
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS 
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD 
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 

TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLY MILDER DAY THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AS 
AN ALREADY ON GOING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SEND H85 TEMPS TO 
ARND 8C...UP FROM ZERO C JUST 24 HOURS PRIOR. THIS PROCESS WILL  
LIKELY GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ALTO-CU AS WELL. IN ANY CASE...WE 
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH THE 
HIGHER H85 TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F FOR 
MOST AREAS.  

THE HEART OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND 
TUESDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL BECOME ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF NOVA 
SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HOW STRONG WILL THE SFC HIGH BE? FORECAST MSLP 
VALUES OF 1036-37MB WILL TRANSLATE TO LEVELS THAT ARE ONLY 
EXPERIENCED IN THAT AREA/AT THAT TIME OF YEAR TO A ONCE IN 30 YEAR 
RETURN INTERVAL. IN ANY CASE...THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON THE WARM 
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS WILL BE HELD AROUND 10C...SO AFTER A NIGHT OF 
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 40S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)...WE CAN ANTICIPATE 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
SUN.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT FIELD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC 
STATES WILL BE BLOCKED FROM ADVANCING NORTHWARDS BY RIDGING OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES WHILE AT THE SFC STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM 
THE GREAT LAKES FROM JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED 
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE LATTER AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ONCE 
AGAIN PROMOTE PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A GENEROUS COVERING OF 
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. IN FACT...THE WARMER VALLEYS COULD REACH 
75.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
YOU WILL NOT FIND THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT 
THAN YOU WILL DURING THIS PERIOD AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BASED 
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN LOCK STEP AGREEMENT OF DEPICTING A VERY 
ROBUST...DOMINEERING H5 RIDGE OVER THE THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH 
AMERICA. THE HEART OF THE 588DM RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 2-3 STD HGT DEPARTURES FOUND ACROSS A LARGE 
PORTION OF EASTERN CANADA. ANOTHER WAY TO SPIN THE NUMBERS FOR THIS 
FEATURE IS THAT THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE HAS A RETURN (OCCURRENCE) 
INTERVAL (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) OF ROUGHLY ONCE IN A >30 YEAR 
PERIOD. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A SUBSIDENCE CRUSHING 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND 
VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER.

MEANWHILE...H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10C ON FRIDAY TO 
BETWEEN 12 AND 14C FOR BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 
IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. THESE VALUES WILL 
BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE SEPT VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY 
UPSLOPE FLOW OF COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN CONCERT 
WITH AN INCREASE IN WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTRIBUTIONS 
FROM THE LAKES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD 
LOWER-END MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF IFR FOUND ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THIS MORNING...WITH MUCH MORE 
SPOTTY/BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOME OF OUR LOWER 
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. 

FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON THROUGH THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE AND 
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN CONCERT WITH 
DIURNAL INFLUENCES...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS FIRST 
LIFTING TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 

ONCE THESE DISSIPATE...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND TO PREVAIL 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME 
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC PUSHES IN OUR DIRECTION. THE 
ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE 
SOME LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN SOUTHERN 
TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN 
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF 
LAKES ERIE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT 
ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

AFTER THAT...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH 
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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