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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR'EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT 
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH 
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING AS A NOR'EASTER 
STILL BRINGS ITS IMPACT LARGELY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE...WHILE 
JUST BRUSHING BY OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING 
SNOWFALL...

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. 
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN 
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR'EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST 
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW 
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING 
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. 

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING 
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS 
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW 
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY 
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE 
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS 
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER 
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE 
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT. 

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL 
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY'S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S... 
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION. 
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL 
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL 
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL 
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK 
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE 
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK 
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON 
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1 
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL 
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE 
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS 
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS 
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR 
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE 
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT 
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD 
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE 
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT 
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN 
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED 
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE 
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL 
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S 
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF 
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH 
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A 
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE 
WEEKEND. 

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW 
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN 
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA 
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX 
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES 
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED 
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES 
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA 
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL 
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY 
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW 
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY 
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS 
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY 
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS 
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. 

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR 
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR 
IN SNOW SHOWERS. 
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC 
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING 
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL 
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. 

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN 
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY 
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF 
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS







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