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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 031933
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE 
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD 
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN 
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. 
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF 
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA 
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE 
OVERWHELMING THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON FOCUSING MAINLY ON SUBTLE BOUNDARIES. A BAND OF SHOWERS 
JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE 
INTERSECTION WILL PUSH SOUTH AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS 
AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WIN OUT AND WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE 
BREEZE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ALONG SUBTLE TERRAIN AND DIFFERENTIAL 
HEATING BOUNDARIES. ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING 
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND 
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN 
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA 
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH ONSHORE ALONG 
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT 
FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW STRATUS 
MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIER LATE TONIGHT. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL 
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR EARLIER 
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A 
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS 
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY 
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S 
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY 
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC. 
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND 
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED 
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A 
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. 

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH 
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS 
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE 
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START 
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A 
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER 
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S. 
 
EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME 
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO 
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD 
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER 
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE 
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.  

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER 
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH. 
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL 
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW 
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE 
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST 
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG AND INLAND 
FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL 
PRIMARILY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR WILL LINGER ACROSS HIGHER 
TERRAIN. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT COVERAGE 
WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM 
THE LAKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE LAKE PLAINS MORE CLEAR.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE 
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE. 
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH 
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER 
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH 
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR VSBY. 
A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA 
LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK 
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN 
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE 
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. 

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY 
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND 
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE 
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL 
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE 
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL 
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED 
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE 
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS 
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING 
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT 
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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