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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
434 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AND PROVIDE 
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL 
THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY WITH 
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY WILL 
BE DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A FEW WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM AND 
HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MUCH OF THE REGION STILL CLEAR EARLY 
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CLIPPING AREAS ALONG THE 
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE THICKER CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN LARGELY 
IN CANADA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES 
BENEATH A STOUT MID LEVEL RIDGE AIDING IN KEEPING THE CLOUDS AT BAY. 
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING IN MOST AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY 
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN ITS WAKE 
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS 
WESTERN NY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL 
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE OF AROUND 1500J/KG BY MID 
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY KEEP SOME CINH 
IN THE PROFILE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC 
SCALE SUPPORT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE 
THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WESTERN 
NY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED 
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST 
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON 
WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE. 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 
+17C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER 
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY WITH SOME ADDED BOOST FROM SSW DOWNSLOPE 
FLOW. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THIS EVENING ANY WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE CHANCES 
FOR SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. 
HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE INCREASING 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN THE 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. AT THE SURFACE 
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND 
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A BELT OF 30-35 KNOT FLOW IN THE 
900-700MB LAYER WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZING CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE 
TRANSPORT. PWAT RISES TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO MOISTURE WILL BE IN 
AMPLE SUPPLY. 

GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND GOOD MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER... 
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR LATER TONIGHT. 
ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PROFILES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT AND 
TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...LIMITED 
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION 
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER TIMING OF THE 
GFS AND SREF MEAN OVER THE FASTER NAM SOLUTION...WHICH APPEARS TO 
BRING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION INTO THE DEPARTING MID 
LEVEL RIDGE TOO FAST THIS EVENING.

A WARM/MUGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SSW 
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 
LOWER 70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID TO UPPER 60S 
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON 
SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES LESSENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES. THEN EXPECT PLENTY OF USABLE DRY TIME FROM SUNDAY NIGHT 
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAINLY ALONG AND INLAND OF ANY LAKE 
BREEZES...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND ELONGATE AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN 
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. ACTUAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS 
AS THOUGH IT WILL NEVER ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO NEW YORK 
STATE...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW RIDES EAST ALONG IT. HOWEVER A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE 
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO ENHANCE 
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 
DAY. PWATS WILL RUN BETWEEN 1.75"-2" AHEAD OF THE SURFACE 
BOUNDARY...THEN DROP OFF QUITE A BIT BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH PWATS 
LOWERING DOWN AROUND 1.25" DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN SHORTWAVE 
ENERGY AND BEST FORCING ALOFT WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF NEW YORK 
STATE. SO EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE 
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE 
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND THE LACK 
OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY 
RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN FACT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A NICE 
LAKE SHADOW MAY FORM OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON 
THANKS TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW BLOWING IN OFF THE NORTHEAST END OF 
LAKE ERIE. THE SAME TREND MAY OCCUR TOWARD WATERTOWN OFF LAKE 
ONTARIO A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH 
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS HIGHS 
ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 

EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT 
AND AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE 
WARM SIDE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY 
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES NEARING OR 
EVEN BETTERING 1000 J/KG BY LATER IN THE DAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE 
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG ANY LAKE 
BREEZES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. 
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW 
ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE 
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED 
JUST WEST OF NEW YORK STATE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT 
SAID...THE NIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PRECIP 
CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NOTABLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY 
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH THE 
ECMWF JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON TIMING. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...A 
WEAK BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO 
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN 
TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
BRINGS A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
STALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUE CHANCE OF 
PRECIP AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS 
WILL BRUSH THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO 
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS 
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD WILL ALSO DEVELOP 
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER 
LAKES WITH CIGS IN THE 035-050 RANGE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE 
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY 
CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE 
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS/VSBY WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR 
BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO 
SATURATE. ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 
BRIEF/LOCAL IFR.

OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY...MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. 
IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BECOMING MAINLY VFR IN THE 
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WITH 
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE MODERATE 
THIS MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH CHOPPY 
WAVE CONDITIONS FROM GALLOO ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT. THESE WINDS AND 
WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE HURON LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN 
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE 
ERIE AND THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WINDS AND WAVES 
POSSIBLY APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND 
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON 
ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







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