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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 191916
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
316 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT 
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY FROM 
A SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.  SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED 
WITH H8.5 TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL 
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM 
NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP FAIR DRY WEATHER OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY...WITH MONDAY SLATED TO BE ONE OF THE NICER DAYS WITHIN 
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND...ANY 
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE CONFINED TO SITES NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO 
WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR PRTLY TO 
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL THUS COMBINE WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 
8C TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS 
THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S EAST OF LK ONTARIO. AS IS 
USUALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL 
WITHIN A COUPLE MILES OF THE LAKE SHORES WHERE LAKE BREEZE 
CIRCULATIONS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR STRETCH OF FINE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A PAIR 
OF SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN A 
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH...FROM 
GEORGIAN BAY TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES 
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR 
WESTERN COUNTIES AND THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH 
THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE DURING THE 
NIGHTTIME HOURS. 

AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING...A 100KT H25 JET 
OVER QUEBEC WILL INDUCE A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL 
LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS 
BEING MAINTAINED FROM CONTINUITY. THE WRN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE 
THE BULK OF THEIR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF SHOWERS 
EAST OF LK ONTARIO BEING FOCUSED ON THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER 6 DEG/KM WILL WORK AGAINST ANY 
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10 DEG F BELOW 
THOSE FROM MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60. 

RESIDUAL TROUGHING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY 
WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST 
OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE PRESENT. 
WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY...TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD STAY JUST 
MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY NUISANCE PCPN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO 
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY 
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH 
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME 
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE 
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE 
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH AS 
H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON 
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. 

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS 
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL 
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR 
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER 
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY 
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION. 

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER 
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT..THEN 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY 
MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







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