Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 310833
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE 
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS 
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
DRAWS CLOSER TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH 
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN 
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER 
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS 
THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A FEW RAIN 
SHOWERS BLOSSOMING THIS MORNING OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH ACTIVITY 
LIKELY EXPANDING TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT 
BOUNDARY. COOL AIR ALOFT OVER THE WARMER LAKES IS BRINGING ENOUGH 
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING TO ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS OVER THE WATER 
BODIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN NIAGARA 
FRONTIER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL 
MAINTAIN STRATUS WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE. THIS WILL 
KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK RATHER CLOUDY...WHILE A FEW BREAKS ARE 
POSSIBLE TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP 
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP 
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE 1.5 PV 
SURFACE...A SPLIT IN THIS SHORTWAVE IS SEEN...WITH THE MAIN 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN EASTERN US...WHILE A DOWNWARD INTRUSION 
OF ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE CANADIAN NIAGARA PENINSULA TONIGHT. 

THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE LOW 
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE WEAK LOW DROPPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF 
OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS 
FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW 
DEEPENING. TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CENTER THE BETTER 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE WILL FIND LIKELY SHOWERS REACHING WNY LATER 
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAINING 
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE EAST...WHICH WILL 
LARGELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY... 
LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR SHOWERS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY 
LARGELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL PV INTRUSION/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR 
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 
THIS SECONDARY...DEEPENING ATLANTIC COASTLINE LOW WILL FOCUS LOW 
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN END OF THE 
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALOFT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL LIGHT 
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT. 
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL FALLING PRECIPITATION 
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS LIQUID.  

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER THICK THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH IN 
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE WILL PROVIDE FOR A SMALL DIURNAL 
TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BEST THEIR MORNING 
TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A 
FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF 
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WARMEST AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TO 
THE SW OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE YET STILL WARM 
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF CHILLY AND WET AS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS 
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL 
ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WITH AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE OUR 
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER 
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY 
COOL FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM/SREF TEND TO BE WARMER THAN GFS/RGEM 
GUIDANCE...BUT USING A CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO 
-3C TO -5C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MIX 
WITH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN 
AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW 
700MB...PRIMARILY FROM UPSLOPING AND MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH 
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON 
SATURDAY WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST 
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT 
WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM 
CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH 
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE KEEPING THE SURFACE TO 
700MB COLUMN MOIST. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER SNOW 
WITH MOST OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRY. IT MAY BE JUST COOL 
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS DRIZZLE OR 
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS 
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE A 
SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE 
COASTAL LOW. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...LINGERING 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY...EVOLVING INTO 
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS. IT STILL APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL 
BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS 
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY 
RESULT IN A FEW ICY SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ANY WET SPOTS 
FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR 
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE 
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE 
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE 
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FLOW BACKING TO 
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY 
AND BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 
A 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY 
WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. 
ALTHOUGH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD 
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO 
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO 
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE 
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW 
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT 
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY 
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN 
FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES 
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 

00Z/12Z MODEL ECMWF/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A 
FRONTAL WAVE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE 
PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND USE A MULTI-MODEL 
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE 
REGION...THOUGH A WEALTH OF STRATUS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN INTO 
HIGH END MVFR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE NEAR LAKE 
ERIE AND ALSO LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS IN 
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING OF CIGS. WILL PLACE A VCSH IN THE KBUF/KIAG 
TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THESE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. 

LATER IN THE DAY THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
NUMEROUS AS THE WARM FRONT'S PARENT LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS 
LAKE ERIE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN 
NEW YORK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PLACED IN THESE TAFS...WHILE 
HOLDING JUST A VCSH FOR THE KART TERMINAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO 
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SETTLE 
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER 
LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM AND INTENSIFY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE 
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...COMBINED 
WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY 
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AGAIN MOST LIKELY FARTHER WESTWARD.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE 
NORTH-NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE 
COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER 
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER 
THAN 50 PERCENT FOR KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO 
MAY ALSO BRING IFR CIGS FOR KROC...IN ADDITION TO KIAG AND KBUF. 

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND 
FLURRIES. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN 
END OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE LAKES. 

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE 
THIS WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE 
FIRST ON LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE 
ERIE. 

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD 
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO 
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE 
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE 
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND 
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA 
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS 
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS 
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY 
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM 
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST 
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST 
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy