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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280440
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1140 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO WESTERN NEW YORK ON 
THURSDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY 
AND CROSS THE STATE FOR PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW 
BRINGS A THREAT FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE 
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW 
WITH LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOGETHER WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS 
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING DISPLAY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS WNY AND 
NCNY. ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST 
COAST STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FADE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE ACROSS WNY.  

WITH FRESH SNOW-PACK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TOGETHER 
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DECOUPLING WIND FIELD ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MUCH 
OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WESTERN NY.  EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE 
DIGITS NEAR THE LAKESHORES AND 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER THE SOUTHERN 
TIER/EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.   

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OR JUST SOUTH OF NYS WEDNESDAY FOR 
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF WNY AND NCNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL 
QUICKLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL 
BRIEFLY PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE 
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD 
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS WITH THE 
COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION POSSIBLY DROPPING 
BELOW ZERO. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE 
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING 
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...AND ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RISE AFTER 
MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL QPF SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOW 
TRACK TO OUR NORTH...AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. 
AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW 
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE 
SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. LARGE 
SCALE ASCENT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL 
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH AN 
INITIAL PUSH OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALSO PROVIDING ASCENT. 
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE DAY FROM 
WEST TO EAST. A SURGE OF MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH 
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AIDED BY SSW 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S FOR AWHILE 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY 
WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION INITIALLY AT LOWER 
ELEVATIONS. 

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY...WITH 
ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH 
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PROVIDING 
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTINUE 
TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE 
FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE 
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION 
OF ADDED LIFT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOMEWHAT COOLER SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW THE GREATER SNOW 
AMOUNTS TO FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ALSO 
THE TUG HILL REGION. THIS MAY BRING TOTALS INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE 
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE 
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 
INCH RANGE...WITH MOST OF THAT COMING THURSDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE 
SURFACE LOW...WITH COLD ADVECTION FORCING TEMPS TO DROP SHARPLY FROM 
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS MAY STILL BE IN THE 20S 
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE TEENS AND 
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW 
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE RESPONSE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY 
DEVELOPING...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF 
CONNECTIONS TO UPSTREAM LAKES SHOULD KEEP THIS RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE 
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR MULTI-BANDS OVER A WIDE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE 
ONTARIO...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW LIKELY TO BE FOUND FROM THE 
EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE 
FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON MAY ALSO PRODUCE 
SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN 
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ON FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

LIMITED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS 
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD 
TEMPS MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND 
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR 
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND PROVIDE 
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. 

THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER 
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO TO THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACT AND PHASE. 
THIS TRACK AND STREAM INTERACTION WOULD PRODUCE A SOLID SHIELD OF 
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...INCLUDING OUR 
ENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL 
OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK 
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED 
AND WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME WITH TIMING ALMOST 24 HOURS 
DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE 
UNCERTAINTY AND THE TIME RANGE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW 
CONFIDENCE. NONETHELESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT HAVE 
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE.  

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS THE REGION 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BEING 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND...AND IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL 
WNY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
SLOWLY EAST. WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO 
THICKEN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NEARING US FROM THE WEST. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...FOR THE MOST PART 
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. 

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR IN SNOW BY AFTERNOON. 
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  WIND DIRECTION 
WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH 
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...ZAFF







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