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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030554
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE A 
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF 
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A 
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST 
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MORE FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
THIS THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AND IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS WILL FEATURE MID SUMMER WARMTH WITH
STICKY HUMIDITY LEVELS. 

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING THAT WOULD PUT A DENT IN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS.  

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER 
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW 
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN 
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW 
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS 
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A 
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY 
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL 
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS 
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS 
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY 
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD 
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID- 
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND 
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO 
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE 
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL 
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK 
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A 
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP 
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY 
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE 
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. 
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL 
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN THE 
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AND IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE
BY 14Z. 

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK TROUGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...THE BULK OF 
THE DAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. 

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY 
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF 
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME 
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR 
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK



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