Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 221934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY 
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING 
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE 
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD 
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR 
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH A SURFACE 
LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH. SPIRALING AROUND THIS UPPER 
LEVEL LOW ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT 
DISPLAY A PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND THEN THE ATLANTIC RISING NORTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA. 

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE HILLS 
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

EXPECT THE BETTER HALF OF TONIGHT TO REMAIN DRY. THE STREAMING 
MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS STILL WELL TO OUR EAST...AND 
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT THAT AN EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES 
AHEAD OF THIS STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL 
BE WHAT TRANSPORTS MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS WESTWARD. LATEST MODEL 
RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON A DEVELOPING TROWEL SIGNATURE TONIGHT 
OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS...INSTEAD FOCUSING THE RAIN AND INCREASING 
WARMTH ALOFT MORE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL 
LIKEWISE BACK OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT. 
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE 
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MUCH LOWER 
CHANCES OF THE RAIN BEING AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY BY DAWN. 
AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 
TONIGHT. 

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD 
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES. 
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP 
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY 
AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.  

THE COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SOCK THE 
HILLS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH MOISTURE 
REMAINING IN PLACE FORESEE THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN 
PLACE RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL CONTINUE 
WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THESE 
LOCATIONS...WITH THE POOREST VISIBILITIES FOUND ON HILL TOPS...AND 
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE VALLEYS.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY 
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT SOME VARYING 
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE COULD BE FOUND TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT 
FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE 
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF WNY...TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE 
LAKES...AND SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT 
LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS ALOFT WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW 
DEGREES OF 40. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. 
HOWEVER FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO 
UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE 
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE 
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY. 
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER 
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER 
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES 
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT 
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION 
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN 
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF 
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH 
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS 
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING 
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A 
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. 
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY 
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR 
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY 
MORNING. 

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR 
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT 
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS 
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY. 

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING 
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN 
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL 
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND 
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING 
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF 
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF 
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER 
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL 
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS 
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL 
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE 
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR 
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT 
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT 
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT 
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING 
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH 
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. 

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL 
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART 
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER. 
 
OUTLOOK...   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS 
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.  
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. 
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OVER LAKE ONTARIO 
WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACROSS ALL LAKE 
ZONES...AND FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFTS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH AT 
LEAST THE END OF TONIGHT. 

ON LAKE ERIE THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST WAVES 
TOWARDS THE TOLEDO END OF THE LAKE...AND SUCH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS 
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. 

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES 
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE 
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy