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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 060452
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1152 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LATEST ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO 
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BY TO OUR SOUTH TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE 
FOR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...THE MERCURY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW 
NORMAL. THERE WILL THEN BE SOME MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS THIS 
WEEKEND...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECORD SETTING COLD WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...AS THE LATEST ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS MADE ITS WAY 
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE READINGS 
WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRIGID MOONLIT SKIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION 
COMING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL 
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WHILE GENERATING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. 
GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR AND A VERY LOW CAP OF ABOUT 5KFT... 
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER AN INCH.

RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING ARE: BUFFALO: 0/2007, ROCHESTER: 
-9/2014, WATERTOWN:-21/2014. 

THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION 
FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY MAY REMAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE BACKING WINDS CARRY THE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE IN
THE MORNING WILL HAVE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE BRISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT 
FROM A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO 
EAST. WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE 
QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS ON 
THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE COLDEST SOUTHERN 
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 
THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE 
REGION AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE...STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT 
AND CONVERGENCE CROSS THE REGION. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE JUST A LIGHT 
ACCUMULATION WITH AN INCH OR SO IN MOST AREAS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW 
INCHES EAST OF BOTH LAKES WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW INTO 
HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A 
LITTLE MORE PROGRESS WITH THE LAKE PLAINS RISING TO AROUND 30...WITH 
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE 
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE DISORGANIZED SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN 
THE LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SNOW 
SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW SHOWERS 
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH 
EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW UPWARD CREEP 
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE ON 
TARGET FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH HEIGHT RISES 
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE NATION. THE LATEST GFS 
AND ECMWF HAVE THE WARMING ARRIVING ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 
LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. IT STILL APPEARS THE WARMTH PEAKS WEDNESDAY 
WITH HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 40S...AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS 
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING 
A BROAD TROUGH INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT 
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING AT LEAST SOME COOLING... 
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY FRIDAY.

THE WARM-UP APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY 
WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND 
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE KEPT AT BAY THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH NO RAIN FALLING THERE WILL BE 
LITTLE OR NO FLOOD RISK INITIALLY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL 
SIMPLY ALLOW THE SNOWPACK TO CONSOLIDATE AND RIPEN. WHILE THE DEPTH 
OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL DROP...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WATER WILL 
BE RELEASED AS THE INITIAL MELTWATER IS RE-ABSORBED BY THE REMAINING 
SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG 
ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP ON 
THE STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WITHOUT RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF THE 
ICE MAY VERY WELL STAY LARGELY IN PLACE DESPITE A FEW WARMER DAYS. 
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS WARM-UP TO RIPEN THE SNOWPACK...BUT A GREATER 
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THE NEXT WARM-UP WHEN THE 
SNOW WILL BE MORE READY TO RELEASE ITS WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP TO PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR 
SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME 
LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MVFR 
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND FOR A SHORT 
TIME...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. 

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...THE 
LAKE GENERATED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED 
REGIONWIDE. 

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. 
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD 
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH WINDS AND WAVES 
(IN ICE FREE AREAS) REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CANADIAN 
WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THOUGH...SO NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD 
BE NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH/THOMAS
MARINE...RSH







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