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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 150851
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
451 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MORNING HOURS 
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BEFORE A PASSING 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE 
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE READINGS RETURN FOR THE 
WEEKEND...ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BLANKET MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH 
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM 
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER 
AND MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...ALLOWING FOR FROST ADVISORIES TO BE 
DROPPED...SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY ALL NIGHT 
AND TEMPERATURES THERE ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID-30S. AS 
SUCH...WILL ALLOW FROST ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 8AM.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING AS THE 
COLD POOL AND MOISTURE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE 
EAST...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A 
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEARING DOWN UPON THE REGION. THIS 
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DECENT CAP BETWEEN 
850-700MB WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. 
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG PVA 
AS THE CORE OF THE PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE RESULTING SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH 850MB 
TEMPS TO AROUND +6C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S 
WITH WARMEST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY 
WHERE LIMITED DOWNSLOPING MAY ADD A DEGREE OR TWO...PUSHING READINGS 
TOWARDS THE MID-60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING 
OUT AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT QUICKLY 
SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND WITH 
DRY AIR HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH THEN OFF 
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES 
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

A MOISTURE-STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIMITED 
MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT 
KEEPS CONCERN FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BEFORE
WASHING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL KEEP A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER 
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE 
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT 
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 OR NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO
MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF 
FROST CONCERNS AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE GULF OF 
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES 
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN 
FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. 

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA. 
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR 
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL HELP TO 
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS 
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CIGS BETWEEN 4-6KFT CONTINUE TO COVER VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE 
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS. WHILE CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP SOME FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING 
AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT RESPONSIBLE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST... 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION 
TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO 
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00-03Z ONWARDS. WEST-NORTHWEST 
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE LOCALIZED IFR 
CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH 
COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT 
WILL BRING WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FT TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES. 

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY 
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. 
THIS WILL GENERATE 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON THE EAST END OF LAKE 
ONTARIO. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE 
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








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