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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 181502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL 
PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS 
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO LOOK POSSIBLE AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS 
WILL KEEP COOL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIN MOISTURE 
PROFILES AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE WEAK 
LIFT FROM A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS OF -12C 
WILL SUPPORT JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL KEEP SOME BREEZY WINDS 
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING 
INTO THE LOW 30S TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 
20S. UNDER CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOW TEMPS 
TONIGHT FALL ANOTHER NOTCH WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO AND THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STEADILY INTO THE REGION FRIDAY... 
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THERE MAY 
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING DURING THE MORNING 
HOURS...BUT EXPECT THESE TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL 
SOUNDINGS/CROSS-SECTION MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOW 
CLOUDS HANGING ON FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCKING IN STRATUS DURING THIS TIME. 

INCREASINGLY DRIER PROFILES DURING SATURDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING 
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO THE AREA. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY 
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH 
COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF THE 
YEAR...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S 
FRIDAY TO THE LOWER/MID 30S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL. 12Z 
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING JUST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AND DO NOT PHASE THIS SHORTWAVE LIKE RUNS 
EARLIER IN THE WEEK DID. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR 
FLURRIES TO OUR REGION...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT 
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MOST 12Z 
GUIDANCE DOES NOT EVEN BRING MEASURABLE QPF TO THE REGION. 
OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AFTER THIS...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO 
DEVELOP. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION TUESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT AND 
SPARK STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN 
STATES WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS 
SUPPORTED BY AN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG 12Z AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF 
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OF 
AROUND 965MB ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC 
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND 
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION 
THERE ARE A FEW CONCLUSIONS THAT CAN BE DRAWN. FIRST...THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS. 
MODEL VARIABILITY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN AND 
WHERE...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ALSO...THE INITIAL ROUND OF 
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT 
OR WEDNESDAY. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES WELL TOO WARM TO 
SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY. SO AS IT STANDS NOW...CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO 
BE A RAINY AND WINDY DAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CHRISTMAS DAY AND 
BEYOND. THIS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE OVER PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BUT 
SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE 
MOST NOTABLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY MAY AGAIN BE STRONG 
WINDS...WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STALLING THE STRONG LOW NEAR THE 
UPPER LAKES. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK 
AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST 
STILL A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT 
AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW 
ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE 
REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKES WILL 
ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SATURDAY 
TO MONDAY...VFR. 
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A 
PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH







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