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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 172139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
539 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF 
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY 
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD 
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE 
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD 
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO 
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS 
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND 
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO 
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF 
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY 
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM 
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR 
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE 
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS 
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE 
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH 
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE 
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY 
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN 
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION 
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF 
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH 
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE 
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL 
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO 
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH 
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A 
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER 
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE 
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST 
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE 
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO 
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR 
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY 
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO 
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE 
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL 
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE 
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO 
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA  OF HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD 
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP. A COLD 
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. 

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS. 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.  
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...WOOD







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