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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR'EASTER WILL LIFT
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC LATE
THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
INDIANA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING IS -8C...WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW AN INVERSION WHICH IS JUST ABOVE THIS.
THIS CAPS THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL...BUT HAS BEEN AMPLE
FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED ALOFT...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS AROUND
-14C WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. SO
FAR WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN LIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. 925MB WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE UPSLOPE LIFT AND RESULT IN
LIGHTER (OR NO) PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS...BUT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN 925MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER CLOUD TOPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL
LEAVE THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS 
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER 
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN 
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A 
NOR'EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST. 
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM 
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY 
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL 
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH 
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION 
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE 
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO 
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.   

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND 
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES. 
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING 
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING 
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL 
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE 
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH 
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP 
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER 
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT 
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION. 
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE 
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING 
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM 
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS 
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF 
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME 
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING 
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE 
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN 
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER 
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE 
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850 
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME 
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 02Z...BUF/IAG/ROC/ART CIGS HAD LIFTED INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY...WHILE JHW WAS IFR. JHW WILL LOWER AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT
INCREASES THERE...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT LINGERING
CIGS AROUND 4K FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A NOR'EASTER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP OUR
REGION BRIEFLY. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY WELL TO THE
EAST...WITH THE STORM HAVING ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR 
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE 
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A 
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL 
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS




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