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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. 
 
ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. 
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE 
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN 
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF 
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY 
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER 
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK 
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE 
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE 
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS 
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT 
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG 
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN 
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE 
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC 
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY 
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C 
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES 
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY 
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO 
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER 
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS 
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT 
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE 
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C 
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT 
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST 
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST 
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY 
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING 
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS 
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY... 
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS 
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.
 
OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG. 
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO 
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT 
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW 
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT 
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL 
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



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