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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200051
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
851 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE 
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL 
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH 
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE 
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY 
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING. 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST 
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME 
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR 
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED 
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG 
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS 
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A 
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY 
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY 
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND 
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS 
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN 
NOR'EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER 
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE 
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH 
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH 
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE 
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END 
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF 
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS 
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN 
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. 
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE 
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF 
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. 

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT 
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A 
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM'S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE 
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING 
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL 
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE 
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST 
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING 
NOR'EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID 
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF 
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND 
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR 
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR 
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND 
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR 
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND 
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY 
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. 

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING 
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER 
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME 
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR 
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW 
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH 
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER 
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND 
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM 
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD 
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO 
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT  
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY 
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD 
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE 
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY 
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY... 
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF 
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF 
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS. 
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE 
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE 
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND 
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING 
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING 
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...   
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING. 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA







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