Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 310247
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY 
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL 
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. MONDAY 
WILL BE DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A FEW WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM AND 
HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DISPLAYS A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR NOW IS 
FAVORING THE WARMER LAKES WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS. SHOWERS 
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE 
REGION REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STORM 
SYSTEM...WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING TO OUR WEST OVER THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE TOWARDS SW 
NYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE 
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY 
INCREASE THE COVERAGE AREAS OF ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. 

A WARM/MUGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SSW BREEZE 
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 
70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FIRST
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND +15C HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT 
AND AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE 
MILD SIDE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY 
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES NEARING OR 
EVEN BETTERING 1000 J/KG BY LATER IN THE DAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE 
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG ANY LAKE 
BREEZES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. 
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY 
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS 
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE 
BOUNDARY MAY PERSIST. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED JUST 
WEST OF NEW YORK STATE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...THE 
NIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PRECIP CHANCES 
STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON 
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...LOWER CHANCE POPS BY 
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 DURING 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND SBCAPES 
OVER 1000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -4C ALSO POINT TO POSSIBILITY OF 
STRONG STORMS. THE RISK OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT WITH 
ONLY LOWER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN 
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES 
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY 
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST 
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE 
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. DURING 
THE  OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD A FEW EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE TIME WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH SOME MVFR 
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY SHOWER 
OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BRING LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR A 
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. 

ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING HOURS TO DIMINISH FROM 
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE LINGERING 
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AT THE CLOSE 
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS WE HAVE PARTIAL CLEARING TOMORROW EVENING 
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF 
PERIOD OR THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE 
WITH IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. 

OUTLOOK...  
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT. WAVES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AROUND A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AS WAVES BUILD
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINE FOR LAKE ERIE...BUT HELD OFF ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR
NOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy