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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010544
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE 
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN 
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE 
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WHILE FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY
BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE BULK OF WRN NEW YORK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HOLDING ON
EAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY 
FROM THE LAKES. THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM EARLY 
THIS MORNING. 

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER 
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY 
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER 
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR 
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN
TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW 
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS 
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS 
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES 
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST 
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES 
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE 
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP 
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS 
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS 
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE 
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS 
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING 
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE 
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND 
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR 
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF 
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL 
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL 
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.  

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO 
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE 
WAVES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR 
RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH







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