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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MILD AIR 
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 
WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW 
MOVING FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR 
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW 
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS 
ONTARIO...REACHING CENTRAL QUEBEC BY SUNDAY MORNING. BAND OF 
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION RESIDING WITH THE UPSTREAM THETA-E AXIS ACROSS 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO LARGELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ONLY A SMALL 
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE 
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND 
DURING SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR GETS ADVECTED 
ALONG AND NORTH OF SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS 
IS TO BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. 
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF 
THE CWA...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO 
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENDING 
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS 
UP TO LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF OROGRAPHIC 
LIFT...WILL A STILL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE SHOWERS LIKELY 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO 
THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SE OF 
LAKE ONTARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SHOWERS. 

MONDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION 
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS 
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 
HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C TO +3C WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MID TO UPPER 
50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE DAY. 

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY CLOUDS WILL 
PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKEST AND 
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH IS 
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WARMER AIR WILL 
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTERNOON HIGHS 
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT MAY 
BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH WEATHER ACROSS 
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS 
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN 
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN US. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE 
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE 
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE QUITE 
BREEZY...WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE 
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE 
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER 
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
COUNTIES. 

OUTLOOK... 
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A 
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. 
WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS 
AND WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. 

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY 
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ030-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




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