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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
733 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE 
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE 
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND 
AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF 
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL 
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE 
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM 
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 
INDICATIVE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARE ALREADY OVER-SPREADING THE 
FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE MOVE 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 
FIRST OF A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER 
NORTHERN OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION 
OF THE JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
AS A FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE 
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH 
AND A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF 
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW 
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM 
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL 
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AS SUCH HAVE HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN 
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES AS WELL AS LEWIS COUNTY WHERE 
IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURE RISES LAG THE 
DEVELOPING PRECIP. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERIE AND WYOMING 
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE 
TIMING OF THE START OF RAINFALL VERSUS THE POINT AT WHICH READINGS 
WARM ABOVE FREEZING...AND FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A LATER START TIME 
AND HENCE OF A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BULK 
OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SPEAKING 
OF TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY 
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND 
THE FINGER LAKES WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND 
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S 
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE 
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE 
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF 
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY 
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT 
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE 
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE 
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING. 

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH 
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE 
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB 
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH 
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE 
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL 
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY 
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES. 

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD 
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS 
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE 
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW 
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM 
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE 
MENTIONED BELOW. 

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT 
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A 
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF 
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY 
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT 
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR 
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER 
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL 
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.   

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS 
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH 
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO 
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID 
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY 
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER 
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS 
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER 
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.  

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR 
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER 
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND 
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM 
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE 
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS 
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE 
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS 
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER 
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A 
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK 
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE 
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY 
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT 
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. 

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE 
NOREASTER' LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR 
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED 
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE 
TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CIGS 
WILL LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT 
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISPLACE 
CURRENTLY SUBFREEZING AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND 
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION WILL 
START OUT IN THESE AREAS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS 
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJHW BETWEEN 17-19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO 
LIQUID RAIN THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING 
RAIN WILL ALSO  BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY ACROSS THE 
BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO 
AFFECT KART/KGTB.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN 
ISSUE...BRIEFLY THIS MORNING AT KJHW AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND 
THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL 
JET MOVES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS 
INTO THE REGION.




OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. 
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. 
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF 
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND 
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES 
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED 
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT 
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS. 

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING 
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT 
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY 
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD 
MARINE...WOOD 
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK







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