Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 281800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PRODUCE BRIGHT SUNSHINE 
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME NUISANCE 
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE HIGH 
EXITS THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A WAVY FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL GENERATE 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE 
WEEKEND...WITH A LITTLE GREATER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN 
TIER. A WARMER...SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION BY MID 
WEEK WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG 
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF 
BRIGHT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT IT WILL 
REMAIN COLD. H85 TEMPS IN THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS WILL ONLY SUPPORT 
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S F...AND WHILE THESE 
READINGS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL STILL BE 
SOME 15 TO 20 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. 

WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BASK UNDER SUNNY SKIES THIS LAST DAY OF 
FEBRUARY...A COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES 
IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS NUISANCE ACTIVITY WILL BE 
SEVERELY LIMITED BY SEVERAL FACTORS...INCLUDING A LOW CAP OF UNDER 
5K FT AND SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER AT THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. ALSO 
WORKING AGAINST SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY 
SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN 
FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL SHIFTING 
NORTH INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING WITH 
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. 

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE EAST 
EAST COAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK TO THE 
SOUTH...THUS PUSHING ANY LIGHT LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES NORTHWARD 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF JEFFERSON COUNTY WHERE THEY WILL END 
COMPLETELY BY LATE EVENING. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WESTERN 
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATE 
AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE 
THICKENING CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES COULD EVEN SUPPORT 
SOME LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ILL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO 
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER REACHING OVERNIGHT 
LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NIGHT...
MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A 5 TO 10 DEG RISE IN THE MERCURY BY 
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND 
A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND WARMER OVERRUNNING AIR WILL SET THE 
STAGE FOR THE NEXT ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUASIZONAL WITH A SERIES OF DIFFUSE VORTICITY 
MAXIMA...BUT THE DRIVING FORCES FOR THE SNOWFALL MAY BE FOUND IN THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EVEN FURTHER ALOFT AT JET STREAM LEVEL OF 300MB.

FORCING WILL ONLY INITIALLY BE ISENTROPIC WITH A BROAD REGION OF 
WARM ADVECTION EARLIER SUNDAY...THEN FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A DEEPER 
LAYER OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 160KT 300MB JET 
STREAK OVER NORTHERN IL/IN/OH...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

WARMER PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AN EXPECTATION OF
RELATIVELY SMALL SNOWFLAKES SHOULD HOLD SNOW RATIOS DOWN TO AN
AVERAGE OF 12:1 DURING MUCH OF THE EVENT UNTIL COLDER AIR
CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE WAVE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH TREND FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF A DAY AGO...AND
THIS HAS PROMPTED FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER
NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TOWARD 30 THEN ONLY SLIP INTO THE 
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FALLING SNOW AND CLOUD 
COVER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE 
DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SOME LIMITED SNOW 
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TOWARD 
THE UPPER 20S EARLY THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD 
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM. PACIFIC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM WITH CLEARING 
SKIES GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES 
DROPPING TO AROUND 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST AS WE ARE FINISHED CLEARING THE DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS FROM 
SUNDAYS STORM...ANOTHER STRONGER AND WARMER STORM WILL QUICKLY 
APPROACH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN ICY MIX 
FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITH 
ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF A FULL 
LATITUDE WESTERN STATES TROUGH TUESDAY TRIGGERING A RAPIDLY 
DEEPENING GREAT LAKES CUTTER TYPE LOW. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF 
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY 
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERRIDE COLDER SUB-FREEZING SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A WARM NOSE 
IN VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO 
CHANGE TO AN ICY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SECTIONS POSSIBLY EVEN 
GOING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARD 40 DEGREES. 

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT AND 
POSSIBLE TRAILING STRONG WINDS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF PLAIN RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE 
RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE TRACK OF THIS 
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN 
FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT 
PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET CROSSING DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK INDICATING THE START OF THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER 
OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL 
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS WITH THE 
WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO 
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WESTERN CANADIAN 
SOURCED HIGH WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY 
DRY WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SUB-FREEZING 
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT OFF THE 
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR FOR MOST OF THE 
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO WHERE A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW 
FLURRIES...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY MAINLY 
VFR. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES SSW...SO ANY REMAINING 
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE CARRIED NORTH INTO CANADA. 

OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO 
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY AROUND 09Z OR SO WITH VSBY 
DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL 
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH VSBY COMING 
DOWN TO IFR AS IT DOES SO. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THE LOW 
LEVELS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON 
SUNDAY...WITH SOME IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK... 
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW. 
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO 
VFR. 
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY MIX 
DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. 
BECOMING WINDY. 
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL PUSH EAST TO THE 
COAST TONIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THUS 
KEEP WINDS AND WAVES (IN ICE FREE AREAS) BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CRITERIA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY 
PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE GENERATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT 
TO MODERATE SNOW...THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT 
WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL 
THEN FRESHEN AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PUSH 
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS 
WILL BE LIKELY ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUR REGION WILL SEE THE FIRST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OVER
A MONTH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR TO ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER STUBBORN COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. A BRIEF
SURGE OF NEAR SURFACE WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE ALL THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE COLD AIR COMES RUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN THE HALF TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT WILL
FALL IN SOME SORT OF FROZEN WINTRY PRECIP. THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY ABSORB A GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HELP TO
REDUCE RUNOFF. ALL OF THE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE VERY
EXTENSIVE ICE PACK...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO ALLOW THE ICE TO BREAK
UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS...FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY BE MINOR FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS BLOCKING STORM
DRAINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY 
     FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK





National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy