Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 201749
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER 
TO THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS ALONG WITH 
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXPANDING ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 
PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE 
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING THIN/WISPY CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 
850 HPA WARM TO AROUND +4 TO +8C EAST TO WEST AND THIS WILL BRING 
WIDESPREAD 60S TO THE REGION. WARMEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS 
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE A FEW OF THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE MID GENESEE 
VALLEY MAY PUSH 70. 

THE FAR EASTERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A MIDWEST STORM
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND NORTHWARD. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A FEW
UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE STATE LINE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL BE MAINTAINED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN 
CONTROL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MORE 
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY WITH 
INCREASING CLOUDS FILTERING SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR 
ADVECTION REGIME IN A WELL MIXED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH 
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE 
60S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND EVEN COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE 
SHORE AREAS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE 
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THE GREAT 
LAKES...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND INTO SOUTHERN 
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH 
THE REGION. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED ALONG 
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TUESDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
ARRIVES AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMIC GET INVOLVED. FRONTAL 
MOVEMENT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THE LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A 
HALF INCH OR LESS. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK AT THIS POINT WITH ANY 
THUNDER THREAT VERY LOW. 

PRECIPITATION CHANCES END BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS MAY BE 
TEMPORARY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. 
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY 
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES... 
ESPECIALLY OVER FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. CRITICAL 
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MIX WITH 
SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO 
CHANGEABLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY 
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL PUSH 
EAST AND BOOST OUR MERCURY BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME 
DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST DURING THE 
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE 
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND QUITE COOL THOUGH 
AS H85 TEMPS OF -5C WILL HOLD OUR AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 
LOWER 50S F. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN THE SEASON 
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S. 

THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR STAR GAZING 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATING H85 TEMPS 
LEADING TO PLEASANT WARMING FOR THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL 
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DOOR 
WILL BE OPEN FOR A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER 
LAKES. SOME SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY 
FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT AND ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION. 

THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWER 
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. VERY THIN SCT 
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF 
TODAY. OVERNIGHT A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS 
BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVER NEAR THE CANADIAN 
BORDER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH 
MORE SUNSHINE NEAR THE PA STATE LINE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.   
WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH MVFR 
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH 
MONDAY WILL BRING MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES AND JUST A GENTLE 
BREEZE ACROSS BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS





National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy