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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200900
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO 
THE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TODAY 
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH 
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY 
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM 
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN 
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH 
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST ACROSS 
EASTERN MICHIGAN. THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF 
THE SURFACE LOW ARE HELPING TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING WHICH 
WILL PREVENT ANY THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MICHIGAN 
U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE 
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF 
OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE AS PLENTY 
OF DRY AIR IS PRESENT 5-15KFT PER 00Z KBUF SOUNDING. WHILE THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW 
YORK...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE 
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM 
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS 
MORNINGS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL 
SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE 
MID 50S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA 
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS 
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE 
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK 
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL 
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT 
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE 
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW 
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD 
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE 
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF 
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS 
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE 
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN 
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE 
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE 
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS 
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE 
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF 
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION 
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE 
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY 
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY 
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF 
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE 
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER 
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD 
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER 
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST 
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS 
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY 
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW 
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH 
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER 
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND 
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM 
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD 
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO 
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT  
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY 
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD 
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE 
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY 
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY... 
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF 
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF 
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS. 
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE 
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE 
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING
AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO LOWER INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS 
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJHW LATER 
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...   
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW 
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE 
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF 
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL 
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW 
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY 
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW 
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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