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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261153
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC 
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT 
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS 
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A 
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR 
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE 
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EXPECT IS 
TO SLOWLY FILL IN AND BUILD NORTHWARD.

SURFACE LOW FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL JUMP TO 
OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA 
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A 
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR 
REGION...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB JET FROM 
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES 
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A BROAD MID 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS WELL...WITH 
COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET STREAKS TO OUR 
WEST AND EAST.. 

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO 
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF 
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS 
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES TODAY FROM THE WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE 
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A 
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW 
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE 
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEST OF 
THE FINGER LAKES...AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE 
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER 
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE 
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL 
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW 
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN 
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION 
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A 
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH 
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING 
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE 
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO 
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW 
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN 
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND 
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN 
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT 
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR 
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z 
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT 
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING 
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW 
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NEAR 
THE PA STATE LINE...AND IS EXPECTED MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH 
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW 
BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS. 
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH 
VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN 
EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MVFR CEILING AND MVFR/IFR VSBY PATTERN 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES. 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR 
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE 
MID APPALACHIANS AND RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS 
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND 
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST 
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH







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