Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 231955
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE
EARLY FALL WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE ARE CLOUDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO MAINE. LINGERING 
CLOUDS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE TROUGH 
AXIS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS MAINE 
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SET UP A SUBTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE 
REGION. DESPITE THE SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE 
HIGH...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS SIMILAR TO 
LAST NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER THE 
SUBTLE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP SUPPRESS THIS TO SOME 
DEGREE. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE 40S 
TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIR 
WEATHER AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW 
AROUND THE HIGH WILL SET UP MODEST DOWNSLOPING...WITH WARMER 
TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PROMPTING A LATE SEASON LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF 
LAKE ONTARIO. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 
70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OFF THE GEORGIA 
COAST WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING 
RAIN NORTHWARDS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE SURFACE/MID LEVEL 
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS WESTERN 
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW WILL LIKELY CLIP THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING. THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO BUMP UP LOWS A COUPLE 
OF DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE 50S...THOUGH THE 
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S. IN ADDITION...THE 
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO RETARD FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

WHILE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS 
TO START THE DAY THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY LATE 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA...TAKING WITH 
IT ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND YIELDING STARLIT SKIES THURSDAY 
NIGHT...AND ALSO BRINGING A RETURN OF FOG TO THE SOUTHERN TIER 
VALLEYS. FAIR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WITH PERSISTENT 
SURFACE/MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE MIDWEST AND 
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK AS WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FILTERS ACROSS 
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CAPITAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
WITH HIGH CONTINUING TO ASSERT ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES 
EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENED OUT BY A 120+KT UPPER 
LEVEL JET STREAKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES 
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME OF THE WARMER 
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 70S. 
THE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN 
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

LOOKING AT MONDAY...WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE EXACT 
DETAILS...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT 
BASIN. THIS IN TURN WILL SEND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCURRYING INTO THE 
UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM WESTERN ONTARIO WHILE PUSHING A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS 
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS...BUT 
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 20Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE 
AREA OF CLOUDS REMAINS NE OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT THIS AREA WILL 
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS AT ART EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 
3K FT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN 
IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THIS 
SHOULD IMPACT JHW. ELSEWHERE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT 
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS. THEN EXPECT 
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
TODAY...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS 
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING A NEUTRAL TO WEAK 
ENSO EVENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. A SUITE OF 
THEIR DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK EL NINO 
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE 
UPCOMING WINTER. THIS COULD VERY WELL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WEATHER 
FOR OUR REGION.

WHILE THE PHASE OF THE ENSO EVENT (EL NINO VERSUS LA NINA) IS 
IMPORTANT TO WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS FOUND A MODERATE TO STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN 
THE STRENGTH OF THE ENSO EVENT AND THE TREND IN TEMPERATURES. SOME 
OF THE 'WARMEST' WINTER MONTHS (AS DEFINED BY AVERAGE MONTHLY 
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE) HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EL 
NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS...WHILE THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FOR HARSH 
WINTERS.

SINCE 1950...18 OF THE TOP 20 'COLDEST' WINTERS ACROSS OUR REGION  
HAVE TAKEN PLACE DURING A WEAK TO NEUTRAL ENSO EVENT. THIS MAKES 
SENSE GIVEN THE TELECONNECTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED JET STREAM 
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS FREQUENT 
INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR AND CAN BE REINFORCED BY A WINTER THAT 
FEATURES RIDGING ACROSS GREENLAND. SUPPORTING THIS ARGUMENT IS 
ANOTHER INTERESTING SET OF STATISTICS. SINCE 1950...WE HAVE HAD 
THREE WINTERS WHERE ALL FIVE WINTER MONTHS (NOV-MARCH) HAVE AVERAGED 
BELOW NORMAL...AND FIVE WINTERS WHERE FOUR OF THE FIVE MONTHS WERE 
BELOW NORMAL...ALL OF WHICH OCCURRED DURING WEAK ENSO EVENTS.

WHILE THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY ANY MEANS FOR A 
SECOND STRAIGHT HARSH WINTER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE PATTERN DOES 
FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES. ONE HAS TO BE VERY CAREFUL IN USING JUST ONE HEMISPHERIC 
PATTERN IN MAKING LONG RANGE FORECASTING THOUGH. FOR EXAMPLE...A 
PERSISTENT ICELANDIC LOW COULD HELP TO FLATTEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THEREBY NEGATE A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE 
PACIFIC.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...RSH







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy