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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER 
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD 
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY 
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF 
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL 
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH 
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH 
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION. 
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH 
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW 
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO 
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY 
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD 
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A 
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER 
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS 
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE 
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY 
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA 
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA 
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. 
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL 
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.  

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH 
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN 
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW 
WILL START LATER. 

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS 
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY 
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST 
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING 
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT 
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF 
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID... 
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP 
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN 
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY 
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO 
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS 
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG 
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD 
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY 
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO 
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS 
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE 
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE 
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE 
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR 
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING 
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE 
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO 
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER 
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD 
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER 
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR 
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY 
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK 
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING 
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH 
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE 
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE 
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND. 
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE 
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION 
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT 
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE 
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON 
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL 
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS 
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN 
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN 
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO 
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS 
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND 
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL 
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF 
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE 
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT 
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH 
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO 
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING 
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH 
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK 
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A 
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE 
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD 
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA 
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A 
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND 
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW 
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER 
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A 
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE 
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A 
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES 
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH 
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE 
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL 
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS 
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL 
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE 
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR 
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. 
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN 
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN 
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW 
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES
FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST 
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST 
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



WOOD





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