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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS 
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR 
SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT 
AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOL 
AND DRY WITH BRISK WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE 
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN 
TO THE SURFACE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE 
HIGHEST GUSTS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. THE SUNSHINE AND NARROW 
CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH 
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS NORTH OF 
THE FINGER LAKES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK 
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS BEING 
DRIVEN BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DROPPING ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHER 
ONTARIO. THE CORE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER 
WESTERN NEW YORK...PLACING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT 
EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INDEED MODEL PROGS PLACES THE SHARPEST DPVA 
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NOMINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT 
HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. HENCE...EXPECT THE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE LARGELY 
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SHOWERS WILL 
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN 
FACT..GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC 
FORCING COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS 
WELL. ELSEWHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF A PERIOD 
OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT/FALLING 
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE 
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGIN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT 
CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...THE DEARTH OF 
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE 
ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER 
DOWN-LAKE FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOIST IMPORTANTLY 
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY 
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO 
FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE 
FLOW FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS 
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO 
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE 
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS 
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR 
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE 
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN 
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE 
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE 
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT. 

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT 
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A 
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING 
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS 
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. 

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST 
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM 
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER 
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH 
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL 
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR 
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60 
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... 
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING 
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. 

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE 
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN 
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR 
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF 
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL 
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT 
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME 
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR 
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY 
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH 
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID 
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN 
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF 
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS 
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD 
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES 
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE 
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF 
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF 
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO 
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE 
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING. 

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR 
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS 
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO 
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN 
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO 
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER 
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY 
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN'S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE 
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE 
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A 
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS 
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK 
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO 
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY 
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE 
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM 
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY 
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE 
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN 
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST ON OUR 
DOORSTEP...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO GUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO 40KT 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS FUNNEL 
DOWN LAKE ERIE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH 
OF WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING 
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND 
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER 
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF 
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING 
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH 
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES 
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT 
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN 
TOWARDS KGTB.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS 
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING 
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT 
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER 
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS 
WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL 
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF 
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT 
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY 
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS 
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE 
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE 
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER. 

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH 
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS 
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. 

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND 
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION 
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS 
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC 
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH







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