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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300824
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
424 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT 
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING 
HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG 
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE 
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET 
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND 
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST 
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW 
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING 
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA. 

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY BROKEN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN 
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE 
AND WEAKEN SE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE 
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME 
POORER...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE VALUES FALL AND LESS 
SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO END BY 
NOONTIME.    

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW 
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR 
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES ESPECIALLY 
THIS AFTERNOON. 

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST 
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. 

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER 
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A 
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A 
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL 
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS 
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD 
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. 

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE 
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE 
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY 
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO 
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES 
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR 
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO 
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION 
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE 
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON 
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH 
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1 
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON 
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. 
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING 
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS 
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE 
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL 
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED 
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT 
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW 
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE 
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS 
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM 
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH 
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY 
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING. 
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB 
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM 
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC 
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED 
STRATUS. 

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO 
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF 
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL 
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE 
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP 
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL 
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE 
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE 
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM 
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT 
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE 
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS 
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL 
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE 
NATION'S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS 
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST 
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE 
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS 
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z LARGELY LOW END VFR CIGS...AND SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE 
FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. ACROSS HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER SOME IFR CIGS ARE FOUND. EXPECT 
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THIS NORTHWEST 
UPSLOPE FLOW. 

A FEW PASSING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LAKES WILL LIKELY ONLY IMPACT KJHW TERMINAL...AND AT THAT ONLY A 
VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF ACTIVITY. 

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN 
THROUGH THE DAYTIME...AND SIDE TOWARDS VFR WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING.  

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS 
WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN 
LARGELY MVFR/VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW 
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING. 

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING 
LIKELY. 
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS 
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS. 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS 
NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR 
WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ERIE TO FALL...WITH WAVES NOW 4 FEET AND 
UNDER. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CANCEL THE SCA HERE. 

ON LAKE ONTARIO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WINDS AND WAVES ABOVE SCA 
THRESHOLDS. WHILE THE WINDS ARE WEAKENING SOME...WAVES STILL 4 TO 5 
FEET WILL MAINTAIN SCA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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