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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210556
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
156 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED RIDGED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE 
TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER...WITH TODAY FEATURING A 
LITTLE MORE WARMTH AND CLOUD COVER THAN SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN 
TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK BY 
DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
REGION TUESDAY SPREADING THESE RAIN SHOWERS EASTWARD...WITH COOLER 
AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST 
COAST. MEANWHILE...A FEW WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND COMBINE WITH 
INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW 
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT NEAR 
THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ON THE LAKE 
PLAINS WITH MID 30S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS 
COUNTY. SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...SO 
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING AND LOW LEVEL 
WARM ADVECTION INCREASE.

ON MONDAY ONGOING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST 
850MB TEMPS TO AROUND +9C BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY AND 
ABOUT +7C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE HAVE NOTICED OVER THE PAST 
SEVERAL YEARS THAT WARM AIRMASSES DURING THE PRE GREEN-UP STAGE OF 
SPRING WILL OFTEN DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST BY MODEL 
GUIDANCE...DUE TO LACK OF TRANSPIRATION FROM PLANTS AND TREES. WITH 
THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE ABOVE EVEN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS 
IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH 
MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS 
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S. 

GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE ERIE SHORE COOLER AND ALSO 
AREAS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUCH AS OUR 6KM WORKSTATION WRF SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHWEST 
FLOW WILL NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM 
DEVELOPING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS 
APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM MONROE COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE 
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW IS A LITTLE WEAKER...SO HAVE GONE WITH COOLER 
TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES OF THOSE COUNTIES.

FINALLY...THERE MAY BE TWO SMALL AREAS WHERE WINDS BECOME A LITTLE 
BREEZY TOMORROW...DUE TO MORE UNIQUE MESOSCALE PROCESSES OF THE 
GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST 20-25 KNOTS OF WIND A FEW 
THOUSAND FEET OF THE DECK. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL NOT IMPACT 
LAKES ERIE OR ONTARIO...WHERE A DOME OF COOLER AND STABLE LAKE AIR 
WILL RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS. IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF 
THESE STABLE LAKE DOMES...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL ESSENTIALLY 
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE STABLE LAKE DOMES...FOLLOWING ISENTROPIC SURFACES 
TO THE SURFACE. THIS OFTEN PRODUCES SMALL CORRIDORS OF SOMEWHAT 
STRONGER WINDS FROM ABOUT THE BUF AIRPORT NORTHEAST INTO GENESEE 
COUNTY...AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST JEFFERSON COUNTY. 
WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THESE TWO AREAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS 
ADVANCING TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES 
WHILE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS 
AMPLIFYING TROUGH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE 
LOWER LAKES AND DEEPEN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND 
THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT RANGING 
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  

TUESDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHWESTERLY 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE 
PWATS TO JUST OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS ABOUT +1.5SD FOR MID TO LATE 
APRIL CLIMO SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. QPF IS A LITTLE 
HIGHER WITH 12Z RUNS AND IS EXPECTED TO RANGE 0.20-0.40 INCHES. WEAK 
NORTHWEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE LAKES COMBINED WITH COLD AIR 
ADVECTION AND A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE THICK CLOUD 
COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN 
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. 
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SYNOPTIC 
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 30S WITH LOWER 30S FOUND 
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. THIS BRINGS A 
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HILL TOPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODIFIED ARCTIC SOURCED HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER 
WILL BE AROUND EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO CLEAR OUT SKIES WITH 
FULL SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLEAR SKIES 
OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING AND 
KEEP OUR SURFACE HIGH TEMPS LIMITED TO ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 40S 
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR 
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO 
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A POSSIBLE THREAT OF PATCHY FOG 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A 
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BUILD A RIDGE 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ALL 20/12Z MODEL PACKAGES ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST 
COAST ON FRIDAY BEING REPLACED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TROUGHINESS 
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATE WEEK RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK 
UP TO NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WESTERN TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTERS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN A 
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE WILL SEE ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND 
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BRINGING ANOTHER 
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL 
HELP BOOST TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LEADING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS 
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MID OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS 
WESTERN NY BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE 
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LOWS WILL STILL DIP INTO THE 30S. 
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA 
BUT A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A NOW SLOWER MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF 
COOL AIR WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES OF 
SHOWERS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST 
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP REINFORCING COLD 
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 
MAY DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND 
LOCATIONS AND HILLTOPS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS 
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS 
TODAY...MAY OCCASIONALLY TOP 10 KNOTS...THEN WEAKEN SOME THIS 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY BACKING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 
TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.  

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.   
WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH MVFR 
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF AND AWAY FROM THE 
NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVELY 
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. THE COLD LAKE WATERS WILL ALSO 
STABILIZE THE AIR OVER THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON THAN OVER LAND AREAS. LOCAL LAKE BREEZES WILL PRODUCE 
ONSHORE WINDS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY 
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONDITIONS 
POSSIBLY APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON LAKE ONTARIO 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...AR/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...AR/HITCHCOCK







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