Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 160628
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
228 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL 
THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH 
SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AREA RADARS SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN 
GREAT LAKES. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A QUARTER 
INCH OR LESS FROM LAKE ONTARIO NORTHWARD TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE 
NY/PA BORDER. KBUF SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS IS NOW PUSHING 
EAST OF LAKE ERIE SO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.   

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS 
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SHOWERS 
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS 
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER EVEN THESE 850 
HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS ALONG WITH WINDS 
VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES 
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. 
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH 
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO 
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.   

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE 
REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS 
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE 
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES 
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING 
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY 
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW 
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT 
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW 
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE 
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY 
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER 
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER 
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE 
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE 
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER 
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE 
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A 
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT 
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING 
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY 
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE 
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS 
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT 
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL 
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT 
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY 
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. 
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE 
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING 
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. 
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND 
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY 
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. 

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. 

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW 
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING 
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT 
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING 
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD 
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE 
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR 
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST 
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY 
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE 
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A 
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE 
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO. 

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS 
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF 
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT 
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER 
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS 
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW 
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A 
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY 
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD 
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT 
LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK 
STATE. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ARE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY THROUGH 12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD 
BE VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS. 

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NY THIS 
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS 
OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR  
CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO 
NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z 
WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. 
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW INLAND FROM 
THE LAKES TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR 
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH 
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD 
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 
FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE 
LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH 
WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE 
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO 
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT 
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT 
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT 
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy