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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND 
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND 
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID 
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR 
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION 
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH 
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE 
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING 
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE 
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN 
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT 
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN 
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS 
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR 
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT 
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW 
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY 
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM 
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER 
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY 
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF 
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE 
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO 
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN 
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN 
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN 
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM 
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME 
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN 
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY 
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM 
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST 
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO 
THE 60S. 

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL 
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS 
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A 
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY 
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A 
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY 
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM 
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES 
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT 
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY 
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL 
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB 
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS 
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST 
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT 
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING 
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER 
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL 
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT 
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH 
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C. 

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL 
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL 
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS 
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS 
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A 
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE 
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE 
REGION. DIURNAL STRATO-CU ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST 
WILL DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE OFFSET 
HOWEVER BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING 
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS 
POSSIBLE THAT THIS VEIL OF SMOKE MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE 
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN 
TIER RIVER VALLEYS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE FORECAST 
THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THIS 
AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH 
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR 
EAST.

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL 
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES 
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS 
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN 
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







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