Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 300116
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
816 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS 
EVENING SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 
GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
EAST OF BOTH LAKES. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A 
RETURN OF FAIR...BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW 
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. AS THE OVERNIGHT 
PROGRESSES...THE RELATIVELY WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT ACROSS THE 
ADIRONDACKS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL PUSH OFF TO 
THE EAST AS WELL...CONTINUED HGT FALLS AND THE ONSET OF COLD 
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE 
SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS EVENT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE 
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 
LESS THAN AN INCH PER HOUR WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TOTALS OF A 
COUPLE INCHES IN MOST AREAS...WITH 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE 
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO 
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL COME INTO PLAY. WILL THUS KEEP THE 
WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER. 

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WITH READINGS DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS WNY 
BY DAWN TOMORROW...AND UPPER TEENS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE COLD 
NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW 
SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH 
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND 
BOSTON HILLS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER TOMORROW WITH SINGLE 
DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION BY MID 
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. 
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO. DESPITE THE COLD AIR...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 
RELATIVELY LOW AROUND 5K FEET...AND THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF 
UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE ORGANIZED. 
EXPECT SPOTTY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH FROM MONROE 
COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW 
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FROM 
UPSTREAM LAKE HURON MOISTURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE THIN 
SPOTS ON LAKE ERIE...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH JUST A 
SPOTTY DUSTING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 
LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW 
ZERO FARTHER INLAND. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GET MUCH COLDER WITH 
NO OFF-LAKE FLOW AND SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE. EXPECTED LOWS OF 
15 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL STILL BE A 
BREEZE ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THIS WILL 
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND 
ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF 
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING 
OFFICES AND HAVING AGREEMENT THAT THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND 
CHILL FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 

ON SATURDAY ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE 
CRESTS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL 
BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. AFTER A COLD 
START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 20S BY LATE 
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIRMASS. 

SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT 
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY BE 
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH MAY ALSO PICK 
UP SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LIMITED OPEN WATER ON 
LAKE ERIE...AND ALSO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS MAY 
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. ON SUNDAY 
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHT LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO 
WITH SOME VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. A FRESH BATCH OF 
COLDER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS IN MOST AREAS WITH 
SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUNDS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF 
KEEPING A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO 
MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH A 
SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW IS NOTED IN THE 12Z 
ECMWF. THE CANADIAN GEM WHICH HAD BEEN HANGING ONTO THE SYSTEM OVER 
THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS ABANDONED IT WITH THE 12Z RUN...TAKING A MUCH 
WEAKER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A LOOK THROUGH THE INDIVIDUAL 12Z 
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A MAJORITY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL 
GFS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL RUNS WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND 
FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. WITH THE ONGOING ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY AND 
THE FACT THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 
OVER ALASKA...THERE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME FUTURE MODEL CHANGES 
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK. EVEN THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS 
MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND COLD 
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME 
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE MAINTAINED MID RANGE CHANCE 
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF COLD 
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY NOT 
GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MANY AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 
MAY DROP BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY COLDER THAN 20 BELOW 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR.

OTHERWISE A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS STRONGER 
SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WOULD BRIEFLY BRING A PUSH OF MILDER 
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE BY THURSDAY. 
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY THURSDAY 
AS FLOW APPEARS TO ALIGN BETTER AT THAT TIME THAN EARLIER IN THE 
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF 
OF TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH VSBYS 
RANGING FROM 1-3SM. MEANWHILE CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 800-1500 FEET 
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO...WITH CIGS OF 
1500-2500 FT ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. 

ON FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION 
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO LESS
THAN 2 MILES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS 
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
SYSTEM WILL VEER TO WESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT THEN NORTHWESTERLY 
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL GENERATE WAVES UP TO 7 FEET FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON. SUCH...SCA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>008-
     012-019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     NYZ006>008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/THOMAS







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy