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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281721
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW 
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE 
AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN 
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF 
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN FROM FINGER LAKES TO 
NORTH COUNTRY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER 
LOW CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND.   

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING 
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY 
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.  

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR 
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A 
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY 
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST 
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING 
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. 
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID 
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM 
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME 
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH 
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS. 

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN 
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER 
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO 
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY 
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST 
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE 
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME 
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING 
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON 
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO 
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES 
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS. 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND 
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE 
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE 
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL 
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE 
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A 
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC 
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE 
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF KITH AT 17Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1K FT 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA IN FINGER LAKES 
AND NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL 
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL 
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE 
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS 
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY 
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY. 

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A 
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE 
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT 
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE ERIE AND THE 
NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR 
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003-004-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON 
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







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