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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST 
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS 
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST 
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST 
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE 
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER 
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS 
CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED 
ACTIVITY CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST 
AREAS WILL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL 
TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL LAKES...WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA 
NOTED ENTERING WESTERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE HAS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF 
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NY BY 
MID EVENING. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT IN ADVANCE 
OF THIS VORTICITY MAXIMA...EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS THIS 
EVENING TO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND THIS HAS 
SUPPORT FROM SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM 
AND GEM SOLUTIONS. 

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN 
ONTARIO AND REACH WESTERN NY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AN UNUSUAL LOW TRACK 
FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 
CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF 
SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING 
CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN 
TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 
EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS 
FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND 
MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT 
AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE 
LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE 
PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE 
GONE WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL 
SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER 
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE 
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL 
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN 
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER 
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH 
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC 
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW 
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST 
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD 
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY 
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY 
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. 
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT 
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED 
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY 
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF 
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL 
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD 
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT 
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND 
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD 
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH 
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL 
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. 

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT 
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO 
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW 
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT 
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.

EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE 
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE 
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR 
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE 
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT 
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO 
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS. 

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL 
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR 
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE 
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME 
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA 
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN 
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL 
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS 
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY. 

OUTLOOK...   
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN... 
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN 
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE FOR A FEW MORE 
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND 
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT 
NEAR THE LOW CENTER. 

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE 
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. 
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE 
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. 
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





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