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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271823
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
223 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
END THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CONDITIONS OTHERWISE REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY... BEFORE
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND BRINGS THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH IS FORECAST TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 18Z...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OFF LAKE
ERIE...AND ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS
WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THESE SHOULD FALL APART ALTOGETHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL
INFLUENCES AND SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...THOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE ABOVE SAID...THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECAST
UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU HAS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED WITH HEATING OF OUR STILL- COOL AIRMASS ALOFT...AND
GIVEN CURRENT SKY COVERAGE/TRENDS FEEL THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AT A MINIMUM... AND QUITE
POSSIBLY RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN BOTH THE ABOVE AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT /AS PER A NUMBER OF TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS FOR OUR
CWA/. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG AND A BIT INLAND
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THE
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
COINCIDENT WITH THIS...HAVE ALSO LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH
TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST PLACES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW
EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A WEAK LOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM LIFTS A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THUS WILL CONFINE CHANCE
PROBABILITIES TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50 AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY.

ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS/STRENGTH OF
THIS GREAT LAKES SYSTEM REALLY LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN
THIS WEEKENDS FOREAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS WE MOVE 
INTO NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK...THE ONLY FLY IN THE 
OINTMENT MAY END UP BEING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY 
PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE APPALACHIANS 
EVEN AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER 
THE MIDWEST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HAVE KEPT A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND WESTERN NY 
DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD THE REMNANTS OF 
THIS SYSTEM LIMP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY 
AND INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO 
THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL LOWER-END VFR CONDITIONS UNDER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CU/STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS... WITH ANY SPOTTY LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LIFTING TO VFR OVER
TIME.

TONIGHT...EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO LARGELY
PREVAIL UNDER SCT-BKN STRATOCU. WHILE A LITTLE PATCHY IFR VALLEY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...THE
PROBABILITY OF SUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT REMAINS.

ON FRIDAY...ANY FOG THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...ANY LEFTOVER VFR
STRATOCU SHOULD FINALLY MIX OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...BEFORE SOME HIGH CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN
BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR DURING FRIDAY.
 
OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ASSOCIATED 
BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKES THIS 
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO 
THE REGION. AFTER THAT...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE FIRST PART 
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR



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