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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 270349
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1149 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATE THIS EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR WEST
VIRGINIA WHILE A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER HAS LARGELY FALLEN
APART...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AS
THE REMNANTS OF THIS MOVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A CONSENSUS OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/HRRR/RGEM)
CONTINUES TO RE- DEVELOP SHOWERS AS THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND THIS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. THE 00Z BUFFALO
SOUNDING SHOWS A CAP AT ABOUT 750MB...BUT WITH DRY AIR AT THIS
LEVEL...THIS LAYER SHOULD COOL WITH MOISTURE. THIS SAID...THE
FRONT IS MAINLY DRY UPSTREAM...SO THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE IF THEY DO DEVELOP AS FORECAST.
ITS ALSO DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER
GIVEN THERE ARE NONE UPSTREAM HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO ISOLATED. QPF SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH...BUT WITH PWATS FORECAST TO RISE OVER 1.75 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH OF NEW YORK WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST IN ITS
WAKE. THIS HIGH WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DRY AIR
CLEARING SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAYS TEMPS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTION
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF 
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND COOL AIR 
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA WILL COOL THINGS OFF WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF 
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A TASTE OF EARLY AUTUMN ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS 
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE 
PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING FOR READINGS 
TO DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES WILL 
RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AS A WARM FRONT 
LIFTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH 
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE 
FRONT...NONETHELESS THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY NICK THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH 
COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THESE ARE AREAS 
THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO ANY MOISTURE THAT MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE 
TOP OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 
70S AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE 
REGION...HOWEVER THE REAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 
LOWS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND WARMER WEATHER TO COME THIS WEEKEND...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING 
FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARDS 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ON 
SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S...MAKING FOR A 
BALMY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE OTTAWA 
VALLEY SUNDAY...AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE AREA 
REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODELS 
DIFFER ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION 
WITH THE GFS FAVORING A TYPICALLY FASTER OPEN WAVE CROSSING SUNDAY 
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF OPTS FOR A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT 
CROSS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS DIFFERENCE WITH 
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES 
TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AS NOMINALLY COOLER AIR 
WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED TO CLIMB AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES 
OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ACROSS 
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO IMPACT 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 03Z...CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR/IFR IN SOME
SPOTS. UPSTREAM THESE ARE SPOTTY AND WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHERE CIGS WILL LOWER BUT THE
BEST CHANCE IS AT JHW WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...MAINLY WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. AFTER THIS...CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN 
TIER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF 
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND 
LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO
WITH A WNW DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE
HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER WEDNESDAY WITH SCA POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS. WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR WIND
FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/SMITH







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