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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261759
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1259 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NY 
AND THE FINGER LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST 
FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW FROM 
MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH JUST 
CONTINUED THICKENING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT
SOUTHERLY 850MB LLJ. ALSO...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT
REGIONS OF TWO JET STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST.


SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE 
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A 
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW 
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE 
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEST OF 
THE FINGER LAKES...AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE 
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER 
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE 
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL 
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW 
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN 
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION 
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A 
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH 
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING 
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE 
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO 
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW 
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN 
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND 
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN 
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT 
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR 
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z 
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT 
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING 
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW 
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS OF 1-3K FT AND IFR VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL
BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LIGHT SNOW WITH MAINLY LOWERING
CIGS. MVFR CEILING AND MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES. 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR 
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE 
MID APPALACHIANS AND RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS 
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND 
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST 
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/WCH
NEAR TERM...AR/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/WCH
MARINE...AR/WCH







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