Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 300239
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD 
FRONT MAY THEN BRING A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... 
BEFORE FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION 
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH 
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...NARROWING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS 
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH 
OUR AREA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...FAIR AND DRY 
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF 
WESTERN NEW YORK...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF 
THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. THE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL 
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE 
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS 
TO LARGELY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 
40S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO 
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW 
DEVOLVING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK. 
TOGETHER...THESE FEATURES SHOULD BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD 
COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF 
ROCHESTER...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BOTH 
BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN 
PARTLY SUNNY AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES... 
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...TO THE MID 70S 
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE 
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS 
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL 
PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST. THE 
PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY 
FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY 
WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL 
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL EARLY OCT VALUES...WITH THE 
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE COMING AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. 

THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SYNOPTIC DESCRIPTION IS A LITTLE SIMPLISTIC 
THOUGH...AS THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A PESKY CLOSED H5 LOW IN 
THE VCNTY OF NW PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT TO THE 
SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE 
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT A 
LEFTOVER SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK 
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER A CAP BASED ARND 3K FT WILL KEEP A 
WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES 
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.  

FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A 
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE 
ABLE TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH H85 TEMPS ARND 10C 
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 (MID 
70S GEN VALLEY).

MORE DEFINITIVE CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE H5 
RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND ITS CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH 
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH 
TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL GENERATE A DEEPENING 
CUTTER STORM IN THE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AN 
AVERAGE OF 12C...WHICH IS WELL ABV NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. 
THURSDAY SHOULD THUS BE AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE 
REGION WITH SOME VALLEY THERMOMETERS AND SITES NEAR THE IAG 
ESCARPMENT PUSHING CLOSE TO 80F. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE 
DOWNRIGHT WARM WITH READINGS ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS NOT FALLING OUT 
OF THE 60S. TO PUT THIS INTO SOME PERSPECTIVE...OUR NORMAL MAX TEMPS 
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR STRETCH OF INDIAN SUMMER WILL COME TO A CLOSE DURING THIS PERIOD 
AS MUCH COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS 
WILL BE SOME 20 DEG F LOWER DURING THE WEEKEND THAN FROM READINGS 
DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

SYNOPTICALLY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEPENING CUTTER 
STORM THAT WILL LIFT ALMOST DUE NORTH FROM CHICAGO FRIDAY...WHILE 
SWEEPING A PATTERN CHANGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY 
(ESP EAST OF THE GEN VALLEY)...A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY SHOWERS 
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT LATER IN THE DAY-FRIDAY 
NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE AXIS OF 
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH WILL BECOME ALIGNED OVER THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 
WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF ZERO C...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE LAKE 
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR SITES EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...NARROWING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS 
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH 
OUR AREA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...FAIR/DRY VFR 
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL 
COOLING VLIFR/LIFR VALLEY FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
TIER OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PROBABLY AFFECT KJHW FOR AT LEAST A FEW 
HOURS. 

ON TUESDAY...ANY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE 
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH ITS 
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVOLVING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT 
CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK. TOGETHER...THESE FEATURES SHOULD BRING A 
GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS 
SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR 
THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS STATED...CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN VFR ONCE ANY VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES 
TUESDAY MORNING. 

OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN 
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 06Z-15Z EACH DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROWING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WHILE KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES IN 
PLACE. 

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 
REGION ON TUESDAY...A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR 
WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THEN LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL 
INCREASE WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE ON EASTERN 
LAKE ERIE WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN 
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND USHERS IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS AND 
MINIMAL WAVES. 

LATE IN THE WEEK...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WHILE SWINGING A STRONG 
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER 
WINDS...WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES BECOMING POSSIBLE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/WCH








National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy