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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011713
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. 
 
ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. 
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE 
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN 
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF 
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC 
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN 
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE 
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE 
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO 
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
 
THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND 
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE 
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY 
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK 
INTO THE 60S. 

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE 
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER 
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.
 
OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG. 
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO 
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT 
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW 
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT 
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL 
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



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