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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 040926
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. 
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER 
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING CROSSING WESTERN PA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW 
YORK. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK 
SYNOPTIC LIFT IS PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW 
YORK AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG A WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND. 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM AROUND 30 IN THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID 30S TOWARD THE 
FINGER LAKES. IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS ARE FREEZING OR BELOW EXPECTING 
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
FALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN 
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE PRODUCING A TRACE OF 
ICE MAKING FOR SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES THIS 
MORNING. 

RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A REDUCTION IN RADAR RETURNS WITH DRY AIR 
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HOLD A THIN 
LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 1-2KFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE WEAK 
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF SUPER-COOLED WATER 
DROPS SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH 
THE MORNING. SOME UNTREATED SURFACES COULD EVEN ICE UP AS 
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A MOISTURE STARVED ARCTIC 
FRONT...PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WILL DROP SOUTH 
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL SET OF A SHARP 
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE TEENS AND 
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY 
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD AIR WITH THE FRONT BRINGS A TEMP PROFILE 
SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH THE DRY AIRMASS THE FRONT IS 
MOVING THROUGH HAVE HELD THIS AT LOW CHANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME 
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES TOWARD THE PA 
LINE. A WEAK BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE COLDER AIR STEEPENS LOW LEVEL LAPSE 
RATES. ONLY A TRACE TO A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARCTIC 
FRONT WITH UP TO AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN WEAK 
LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE 
PERIOD...AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE 
WORKING INTO THE AREA TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. 
HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN ALOFT THURSDAY 
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS INCOMING 
AIR MASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD 
WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR 
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS AS 
VALUES DROP INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW RANGE. 

A BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY COMBINED WITH 
850 MB TEMPERATURES DIVING TOWARD -22C AND AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO 
OF DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD DELIVER SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE OPEN WATERS 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE 
COVER AND THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS... 
THERE STILL SHOULD BE MINOR LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS. TIME OF YEAR WILL 
FAVOR DIFFUSE BANDING...WITH A MORE CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE 
UPPER COLD POOL. 

AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME 
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY LIKELY REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND ONLY 
IMPROVING TO AROUND 20 FOR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT 
FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE ARCTIC 
AIR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE 
AREA WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH 
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST. 
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK 
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP 
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE 
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE 
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND 
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET 
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET 
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY 
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST 
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK 
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE 
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH 
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF 
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT IS PRODUCING THE THREAT 
OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 
LINGERING LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE 
INTO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO OVC VFR AS 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS 
THE MID WESTERN STATES. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE 
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO 
NORTHWEST AND A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

OUTLOOK... 
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STORM OVER QUEBEC 
AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE 
FOR THE NY NEARSHORES OF LK ONTARIO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CRITERIA FROM EAST TO WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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