Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 261755
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1255 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR'EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT 
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A FRESH COATING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS 
TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE AND FINGER LAKES 
REGION. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO 
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING 
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS FOUND JUST TO THE 
EAST OF SE VIRGINIA. THIS LOW IS SPREADING PRECIPITATION INLAND 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A LIGHT GENERAL SNOWFALL NOW REACHING OUR 
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HAVE BUMPED SNOWFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS UP AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...AND 
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY MAY NEAR 4 INCHES 
FROM THIS STORM BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. 

FOR THE DETAILS...DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS 
COASTAL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR'EASTER WHILE 
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH 
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS 
EVENING...THEN LIFTING OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE 
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. 

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING 
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS 
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW 
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY 
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-3" OF SNOW WILL BE 
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 4" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS 
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER 
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE 
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT. 

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL 
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY'S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S... 
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION. 
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL 
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL 
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL 
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK 
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE 
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK 
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON 
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1 
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL 
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE 
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS 
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS 
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR 
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE 
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT 
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD 
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE 
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT 
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN 
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED 
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE 
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL 
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S 
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF 
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH 
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A 
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE 
WEEKEND. 

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW 
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN 
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA 
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX 
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES 
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED 
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES 
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA 
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES 
REGION FROM THE COASTAL LOW. THIS SNOW IS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN 
TO IFR RANGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS FOUND ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE 
SNOW. FOR THE AIRFIELDS EXPECT A REDUCTION TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY 
SOME IFR WHERE THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE BRIEFLY HIGHER. 

THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS 
BACKING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS 
FOR THE REMAINING 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERAL DRY 
CONDITIONS FOR THE AIRFIELDS. 

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR 
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR 
IN SNOW SHOWERS. 
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR. 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC 
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING 
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL 
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW. 

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN 
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY 
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF 
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 18 
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT 
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER 
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT 
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT 
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS 
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC 
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER 
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE 
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING 
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC 
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST 
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE 
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST 
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE 
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE 
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST 
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME 
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED 
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION 
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE 
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD 
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT 
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO 
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN 
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION 
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION 
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF 
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF 
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE 
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy