Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 241725
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1225 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS 
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY 
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS 
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN 
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW 
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK'S 
SNOWSTORM ONLY ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. 
WHILE THESE LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY 
EXACERBATE THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE 
CURRENT FLOOD RISK REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK 
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS 
BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 60S. 
CURRENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT 
ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND 
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM 
GAGES ARE REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE 
STARTING TO RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD 
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN 
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE 
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG 
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A 
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN 
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING 
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN 
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING 
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL 
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE 
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE 
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD 
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO 
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN 
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY 
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC 
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN 
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN 
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG 
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER 
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG 
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW 
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE 
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING 
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD 
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO 
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD 
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING 
UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING 
NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY 
SATURATED AREAS WILL BE RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION 
MAY START TO DRIVE SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION 
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND 
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE 
FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING 
MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG 
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 
TOWARDS MID 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE WARMEST 
AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER 
LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THANKS TO 
DOWNSLOPING. A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN IN TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE 
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE 
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN 
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE 
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT 
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER 
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE. 
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE 
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING 
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED 
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE 
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE 
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST 
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A 
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR 
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE 
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE 
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A 
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL 
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH 
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF 
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH 
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR  
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A 
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT 
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT 
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE 
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. 

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE 
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT 
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF 
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE 
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35KT TO INCREASE TO 40-50KT BY MID TO 
LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS 
WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
FROM W-E BETWEEN 20Z MON AND 03Z TUE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AS NOT 
TO CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND 
SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF 
40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION 
TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE 
LAKES. 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS 
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM 
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC 
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING 
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO 
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE 
LAKES. 

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH 
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. 
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN 
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-007-
     010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-005-013-014-
     020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-
         062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY 
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR 
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy