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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 220004
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
704 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING 
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE 
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN 
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE 
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE 
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF 
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
NOW EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST. BEHIND THIS TROUGH HEIGHTS WILL 
BUILD ALOFT...COUPLED WITH WARMING. BUT FIRST WE HAVE THE TAIL END 
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO STILL DEAL WITH...

OFF LAKE ERIE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE 
BAND OF SNOW OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALL THAT REMAINS IS A 
BROADENING PLUME OF FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...A SIGN 
THAT THE BAND HAS LOST ITS DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. THIS AREA 
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MAY DRIFT 
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT WILL NOT DROP ANYTHING MORE THAN A 
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.   

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND HAS GAINED 
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG 
HILL. THIS BAND MAY BRIEFLY DROP 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ON THAT AREA 
THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS MAY DROP A QUICK 3-5 INCHES IN THAT AREA. 
OVERNIGHT EXPECT A RAPID DEMISE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH CAUSING 
DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH TO END. WHAT REMAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH 
ACROSS WATERTOWN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW FLURRIES.    

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AWAY 
FROM THE LAKE BANDS OF SNOW...THOUGH BY LATE TONIGHT SOME INCREASE 
IN CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AS WARMING ENSUES. 

FOR TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE 
MOTION PROVIDING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. 
SYNOPTICALLY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 250 HPA JET WILL 
PROVIDE SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IN 
ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN LOW QPF RAINFALL. THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE LACKING IN 
THE P-TYPE AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAY LINGER 
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN 
THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AT THE ONSET OF THE 
PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO LATER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN AND FOR NOW 
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 NEAR THE LAKE 
SHORELINES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREE SEPARATE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER 
LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD 
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE. THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL 
SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY 
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH A 
DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST BATCH APPEAR 
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON 
SUNDAY AND BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH 
JUST A SPOTTY COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE THIRD WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A STRONG 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS 
THE LOWER LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT 
DOES NOT LAST LONG...BUT MAY PRODUCE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF 
STEADIER RAIN. THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH AS FAR AS QPF POTENTIAL 
GOES...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY 
TAPER OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON 
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70+ KNOT JET...WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG 
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD 
FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE 
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF THE STRONGER 
LOW LEVEL JET VERIFIES SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST WIND 
ADVISORY GUSTS...WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING CRITERIA 
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A 
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH 
AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM A MORE 
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN WOULD 
BE MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH 
A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER 
AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT 
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 ON THE 
LAKE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN SURGE INTO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 60S ON 
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...POSSIBLY 
ONLY DOWN AROUND 50 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR 
50 BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH 
DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY SPEED UP SNOWMELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE THANKSGIVING 
HOLIDAY AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS 
NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A 
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW 
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS 
MAY GROW COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK UNSTABLE 
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE NEW DAY 7 
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE 
LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART THIS 
EVENING. A PLUME OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IS STILL FOUND EAST OF 
THE LAKE AND MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF KBUF-KROC. THIS SHOULD END 
COMPLETELY LATER THIS EVENING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES 
AT KBUF. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. 
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A BETTER ORGANIZED BAND HAS DEVELOPED WITH 
LOCAL IFR IN MODERATE SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE 
MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY BRING A FEW HOURS OF 
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO KART OVERNIGHT BEFORE FALLING APART BY 
MORNING. 

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH 
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE. ON SATURDAY HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND 
LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK IN THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT 
APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM 
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR 
INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 
LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE... 
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND 
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW 
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. 
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE 
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SCA 
WILL AGAIN CONTINUE ON THE LAKES.  

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING 
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON 
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE COMPLETED A SNOW SURVEY TODAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS. 

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS. 

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     NYZ006>008.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING 
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY 
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK





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