000
FXUS61 KBUF 230708
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT 
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE 
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS DRIER 
AIR WORKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE 
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST ACROSS MICHIGAN. LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS 
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS STILL IN 
PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY 
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK 
WHERE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORT 
WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING EAST ACROSS OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. 

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY...ITS TRAILING 
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE 
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT FAVORABLE...
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COMPARED TO WHAT 
WE SAW THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE 
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER. 

THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 
15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. BEHIND THE 
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING 
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS MAY 
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.  

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE 
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SETTLES OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEST COLD 
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO COOL THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION...AS A BROAD AND STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S 
AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GRADIENT MAY STAY 
UP ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO A MINIMUM 
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NUDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO 
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT 
IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO 
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S 
AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THESE 
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR THE 
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME 
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH 
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH 
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH 
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE 
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK 
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. 
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO  
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DESPITE THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN 
PLACE. 

A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL 
CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WILL PROVIDE 
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 
THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE 
COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR...THEN DROP TO MVFR 
LATE IN THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS 
IN PLACE. 

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WORKS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE 
DEPARTED FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR 
CONDITIONS.  

OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH. 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO 
THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW 
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP