Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 211813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE 
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW 
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS 
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO 
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION 
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING 
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE 
DIGGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS 
DEEPENING OFF THE JERSEY COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING 
LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. 

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS WNY 
AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHT ACTIVITY FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS 
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THIS 
ACTIVITY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES...AND WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN 
PLACE WILL BE ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER WHERE 
AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER 
COVERAGE AREA. ALSO TONIGHT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE 
AND TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS 
THE LAKE WILL BRING ADDED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT LIKELY 
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY 
WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. 

WITH RICH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW 
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME 
PATCHY FOG TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS AND ALSO THE TUG HILL 
REGION. 

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW 
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING 
THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING 
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS 
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE 
VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF 
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW. 

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE. 
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW 
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES 
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE 
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM 
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW 
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY 
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED 
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW 
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE 
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL 
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT 
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO 
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW 
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND 
THE UPPER LOW CENTER. 

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF 
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS 
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER 
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG 
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. 
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON 
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST 
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE 
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE 
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL 
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW 
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING 
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A 
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE 
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER 
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES 
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE 
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND 
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN 
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR 
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE 
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND 
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE 
FOR LATE OCTOBER. 

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN 
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A 
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND 
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR 
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE 
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 18Z WILL 
YIELD IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF 
THE TAF PERIOD. 

TO START THE TAF PERIOD...SOME IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NEAR 
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FARTHER 
SOUTHWARD. AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL 
MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY 
ACROSS KBUF...AND LATER KJHW. GREATEST DURATION OF IFR WILL LIKELY 
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MAINTAIN AREAS 
OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING 
HOURS TOMORROW. 

LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KART...THOUGH 
SOME PATCHY IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE SHOULD 
IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT 
CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. 

OUTLOOK...   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN... 
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A 
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE 
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER 
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE 
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO 
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE 
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT 
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy