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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 191712
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
112 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS PREDICTED BUT STILL LINGER ACROSS FINGER LAKES 
AND TUG HILL AREAS.  CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ESPECIALLY AS SUNSET 
NEARS.  

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT 
WIND REGIME. MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY FROM 
A SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST.  SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COUPLED 
WITH H8.5 TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT MID APRIL 
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A BEAUTIFUL EASTER SUNDAY...AS SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY 
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR 
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY 
WEATHER...WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IN 
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN 
ONTARIO. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE 
DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP PUMP 850 MB TEMPS UP TO BETWEEN +3C AND 
+7C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE 
BULK OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL 
THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES...WHERE DEVELOPING LAKE 
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER...AND 
POTENTIALLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS.   

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE 
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE IT WILL THEN 
STALL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING A LITTLE 
FURTHER NORTH AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA BORDER...AND THE 
CONSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL 
GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER CHANCES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE 
RIVER AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OUR AREA OTHERWISE 
REMAINING DRY ALONG WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RENDER SKIES 
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE 
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY 
SUNNY. WITH A MILDER OVERALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 
SHOULD AVERAGE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT... 
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. 
THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO 
SUNDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS OF +6C TO +9C SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE 
ACROSS THOSE LAKESHORE AREAS IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES... 
WHERE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS 
NOTICEABLY COOLER. 

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST 
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING OFF TO 
EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE 
PROCESS...IT WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA 
BETWEEN VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE 
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE THUS CONTINUED 
WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH PEAK 
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 
FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT MILD LOWS IN 
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW OF MILD AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING 
COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THEN FOLLOWING 
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE 
RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW BODILY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE 
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY 
COOLER...ENOUGH SO TO SEND HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL 
LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER 
THAN NORMAL READINGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST DIRECTLY 
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY GIVING 
WAY TO THE NEXT SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE 
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL WARM AIR 
ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO 
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON 
THURSDAY...BEFORE CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE 
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3K FEET MAINLY OVER FINGER LAKES AND 
TUG HILL WILL DIMINISH BY 20Z. OTHERWISE VFR AREAWIDE THROUGH 
MONDAY.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME 
LIGHT TONIGHT..THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY 
MORNING...NO SIGNIFIANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 
MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







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