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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011134
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID LABOR DAY WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. A COLD FRONT WILL 
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES 
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW LOW 
STRATUS COVERING PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY...LAKE ONTARIO...CENTRAL NY 
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE IS A NOTABLE HOLE IN THE STRATUS FROM 
JUST EAST OF KBUF AND KIAG EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN 
FINGER LAKES WHERE SUNSHINE DOMINATES THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOW 
STRATUS TO LAST INTO MID MORNING WHERE IT IS FOUND NOW BEFORE MIXING 
OUT WITH THE ONSET OF DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING. THE INVERSION IS 
WEAK...SO THE STRATUS LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH LOWER 
ELEVATIONS CLEARING MID MORNING AND HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING 
OR MIDDAY. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL...BUT LOW LEVEL PROFILES 
SEEM TO SUPPORT STRATUS OVER FOG WITH SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY 
LAYER. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. 

OUR REGION WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY...WITH A WEAK TROUGH 
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINING 
WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN 
THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING JUST 
A VERY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CROSSING WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE 
WILL LIKELY BE A MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE 
ERIE...SEPARATING ENHANCED FLOW CHANNELING DOWN THE LAKE AND WEAKER 
WINDS INLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1500J/KG 
OF SBCAPE...ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME CINH IN THE 
PROFILE. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG 
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY ORGANIZE LOW LEVEL MASS 
CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO BREACH THE MID LEVEL CAP. WITH THIS IN MIND 
HAVE DRAWN A CORRIDOR OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM 
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO THE ROCHESTER AREA. THIS ALSO 
INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE BUFFALO AREA...WITH A SSW FLOW 
OFF THE LAKE LIKELY KEEPING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA 
FRONTIER DRY. FARTHER EAST THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD STAY DRY WITH 
LESS INSTABILITY AND NO TRIGGER. 

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE 
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY...AND AROUND 80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS EVENING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH DO 
DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. THIS 
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM 
APPROACHES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH 
WESTERN NY LATE...WITH A LEAD CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE 
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL 
PROVIDE INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE TONIGHT...AND UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90+ KNOT 
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS 
AND MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 
DAY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF 
AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO WESTERN 
NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...REACHING NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY 
RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES 
AROUND -3C...OR EVEN A BIT LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK 
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-35KT...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS I'D 
LIKE TO SEE FOR BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL. KEY FACTOR WILL BE THE 
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. WILL 
CLOUD COVER MOVE IN TOO EARLY AND LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS THE 
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE THE BEST 
SHOT AT SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THIS 
MAY BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...TALL 
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOWN IN BUFKIT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OFFERS THE RISK FOR 
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. ALL THESE FACTORS TAKEN INTO 
CONSIDERATION...IT APPEARS THERE MAY SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW 
STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE 
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND TO A 
LESSER EXTENT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY 
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA 
TUESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A 
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN 
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO BUILD 
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO 
LOWER 60S.

LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A 
DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE 
WISE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPS 
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS 
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE 
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS 
MAINLY DRY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR 
LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF 
HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 
HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THROUGH NEW YORK STATE DURING 
THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER 
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...NOT MOVING IT COMPLETELY THROUGH 
THE STATE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK 
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...USHERING IN A 
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WORK WEEK THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD 
ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT A WARM 
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. EXPECT LOWS 
FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE A BIT COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE 
AREA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL 
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A MUCH COOLER DRIER AND 
AIRMASS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT 
AS LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY 
REACHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE 
MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE STRATUS FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY 
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ALSO IN CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH 
COUNTRY. CIGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS 
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL WITH LOCAL IFR 
VSBY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AND 
LIFTING BY MIDDAY.

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR 
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN 
VFR. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A 
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR KJHW TO KROC.

OUTLOOK...  
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF 
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG. 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER 
LAKES TODAY WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES. A COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES 
ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT 
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
MODERATE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS AND WAVES JUST SHY OF SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON 
TUESDAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN 
TO LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





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