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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 130600
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING 
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
RAIN TO OUR REGION...WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS IT
BEGINS AND ENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE... 
WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION IN 
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF 
CLOUDS AND THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WITH JUST SOME PASSING 
CIRRUS FOUND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AS FOR LOW 
TEMPS...THESE WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...TO 
THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

TOMORROW WILL START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR 
EASTERN SECTIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS TO OUR 
EAST WILL SLOWLY FADE TO THE EAST...WHILE TOWARDS THE WEST MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES 
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW 
WILL ALSO BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER MUCH 
OF THE REGION. A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO 
SHORELINE AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL NEAR 50F. THIS SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE IN NIAGARA AND ORLEANS
COUNTIES.

PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE TILL FRIDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY 
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE 
OHIO VALLEY. 12Z MODEL SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FORECASTING THIS 
FEATURE TO MERGE WITH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW DROPPING THROUGH 
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY 
TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. 
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK 
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 
SATURDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT 
INCOMING WARMER AIR WILL OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH A MAINLY RAIN
SCENARIO...WITH A LOWER RISK FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND AN EVEN LOWER
RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN. 

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALTHOUGH A QUARTER TO
AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
MELTING OF OUR SNOWPACK COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
TRIBUTARIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY 
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP ENOUGH 
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE THE SHOWERS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL 
PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES 
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S. 

SOME TIMING ISSUES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT THE GENERAL IDEA 
SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS IS TO REESTABLISH THE TROUGH ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EITHER MONDAY 
NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE 
FRONT FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH A MARGINALLY COLD WEST TO 
NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME LAKE INDUCED/UPSLOPE SNOW 
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL OFF BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT 
FOR TUESDAY...THEN REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT 
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. AS 
A CONSEQUENCE...MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE 
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE END RESULT OF THIS 
WILL BE INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO THE LOW 
VFR/MVFR RANGE...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 
MVFR CIGS TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE LOWER 
ELEVATIONS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT 
NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN...WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE MORNING. 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND 
ATTENDANT IFR/MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES ON OPEN LAKE WATERS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY BEHIND A STORM SYSTEM WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MELT GRADUALLY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO FLOODING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WHICH ROSE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL EASILY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...
KEEPING THE SNOWMELT AT A MANAGEABLE PACE. BASED ON RECENT SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) MEASUREMENTS...BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN
INCH OF SWE HAS RUNOFF OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS HAS CAUSED
CREEKS TO OPEN UP A BIT...BUT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT ICE IN PLACE
THE HEADWATERS.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE BASINS OF THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...AS WELL AS THOSE OF THE ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE RIVERS.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES...THIS STILL IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE ANY FLOODING. ONE GUIDE USED TO DETERMINE WHEN ICE WILL
BREAK UP IS THAWING DEGREE HOURS (TDH) WHICH IS THE SUM OF THE
ABOVE FREEZING PORTION OF TEMPERATURES BY HOUR. USING THIS
TECHNIQUE...TDH REMAIN BELOW 300 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN FOR 
THE WARMEST BASINS. WHILE IT TYPICALLY TAKES 300 TO 500 TDH FOR
ICE TO BREAK UP...IT MAY TAKE A BIT MORE THAN THAT IN THIS CASE
GIVEN THE THICK ICE THAT IS LIKELY IN PLACE. THIS SAID...THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO FURTHER RIPEN THE SNOW PACK AND INCREASE
FLOWS.

AFTER THAT...THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD INCREASE A BIT THIS WEEKEND
WHEN RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND ADD TO THE
RUNOFF. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO
QPF AND TEMPERATURES. MMEFS ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD
PROBABLY REQUIRE THE WARMEST AND WETTEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO
CAUSE FLOODING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THIS IN THE BUFFALO
CREEKS AND ALLEGHENY BASINS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ICE
JAMS IN THE BUFFALO CREEKS...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES
ON THE WARM SIDE OF CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/JJR/TMA







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