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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL 
PRODUCE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES EARLY THIS 
MORNING GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS 
THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING 
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A 
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO LOOK 
POSSIBLE AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS 
AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL WEATHER RADARS SHOW THAT A WINTRY 
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IS GENERALLY CONFINED 
TO CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS LESS INDICATION OF 
THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE...BUT TEMPERATURE AND 
DEWPOINT READINGS WITHIN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES INDICATE THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT MIST OR FOG AND ICY CONDITIONS NOT OTHERWISE 
DETECTED. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICY 
CONDITIONS UNTIL 13Z...AND EXTEND FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR 
MONROE...WAYNE...ONTARIO...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO WHERE PRECIP 
HAS BEEN REPORTED AND ALSO DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE 
ONTARIO AND ITS LACUSTRINE ENVIRONMENT.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A CLEARING LINE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS 
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. MESO SCALE MODELS ARE MORE 
OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS CLEARING TREND...BUT WILL HOLD BACK ON BRINGING 
TOO MUCH CLEARING TO THE REGION UNTIL MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF 
THIS CLEARING LINE IS EVIDENT.

TEMPS TODAY WILL SHOW LITTLE RECOVERY FRONT THE OVERNIGHT 
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT 
WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE 
TEENS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHEAST CANADA AT 
THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY 
NIGHT. THE ONLY REAL ISSUE LOOKS TO BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND IMPACTS 
UPON THE TEMPERATURE CYCLE. THE MODEL TREND IS TOWARD HIGHER LOW 
LEVEL HUMIDITY SATURDAY. WEAK WIND FIELDS...ALONG WITH LOW INVERSION 
HEIGHTS AND LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD KEEP ANY PARTIAL CLEARING FAIRLY 
LIMITED. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT 
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS 
SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. 

CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT UNDERNEATH 
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LITTLE TEMPERATURES 
VARIATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE 
CLEARING COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE 
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS THERE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT 
MORE EASTWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALTHOUGH 
MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGESTING INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP 
SUNSHINE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOTCH A BIT UPWARD SUNDAY WITH 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MAINE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO OUR REGION 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO 
THE REGION. AFTER THIS A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS 
MID-SECTION WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SW-NE TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY 
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS...BUT 
ALL HAVE THE FEATURE TO SOME EXTENT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF 
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIKELY 
TO DEVELOP MID-WEEK. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR 
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT 
WHICH WILL DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE 
EASTERN STATES AND WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL 
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY 12Z GUIDANCE OF THE 
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. A 
12Z CONSENSUS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT 
STILL HAS A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR ONTARIO ON 
CHRISTMAS DAY.

FOR OUR REGION...IT WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A RAINY AND WINDY 
DAY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STILL HAS OUR REGION PRIMARILY IN THE WARM 
SECTOR UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL 
ALLOW LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW. CHRISTMAS DAY 
LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND/OR UPSLOPE 
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD 
ONLY BE -6 TO -8C...WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC 
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND 
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT OF THIS 
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. 12Z 
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THIS 
COULD EASILY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR 
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN MARGINAL 850MB TEMPERATURES...THIS DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO BE A PROLIFIC SNOW PRODUCER. THE MOIST CYCLONIC 
FLOW AND UPSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...MOST 
LIKELY TO BE IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER THIS COULD 
CHANGE TOO IF MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE 
LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL 
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS 
IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH 
THE FORECAST STILL A LONG WAYS OFF.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SUBTLE RETURNS INDICATING AREAS OF 
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING TO STREAM OFF OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS 
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. WHILE RETURNS HAVE 
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND PRECIP HAS ENDED 
FOR THE TIME BEING AT SEVERAL SITES...THE OVERALL METEOROLOGICAL 
PICTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
THAT CONTINUES TO LINGER IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS EXPECT 
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 
PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 
FZDZ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS 
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AS FLOW REMAINS 
WEST-NORTHWEST...ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WE 
MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY HANG 
ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART...THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE 
CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS 
WAY INTO THE AREA FROM QUEBEC.

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR WITH CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT 
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. 
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...VFR. 
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD 
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN 
A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE 
WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001-
     002-007-008-010>013-019>021-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     NYZ003>006-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH










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