Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 240243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A 
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER 
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER 
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION 
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE 
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES...AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EAST OF BUFFALO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT WINDS PREVENT GROUND FOG FROM FORMING. IT IS ALSO
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NAM/RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR
FORECAST SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER DUE TO COOLING AND A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR 
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE 
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST 
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY 
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM 
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. 

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY 
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES 
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY. 
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER 
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS 
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN 
NEAR THE STATE LINE. 

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE 
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER 
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A 
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A 
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE 
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO 
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO 
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL 
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME 
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. 

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME 
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH 
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN 
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. 

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE 
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS 
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE 
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT 
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN 
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD 
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING 
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT 
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS 
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME. 

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING 
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER 
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR 
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 02Z...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT ART LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT. 11-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1K FT ACROSS
NW PA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE COULD SPREAD
INTO JHW OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS OR
FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR BUF/IAG HOWEVER WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE WILL
KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LOW
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...   
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER 
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy