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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 212124
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
524 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS 
THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE 
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE 
EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOOK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TELLS THE 
STORY. A BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE FRONT WHERE SOME 
GUSTY WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED. WEST OF THE FRONT...SUNSHINE HAS BEEN 
PRESENT AS A WEDGE OF CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. 
THIS SUNNY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN 
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MICHIGAN 
AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL 
PIVOT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS SHIFTING EAST 
ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT USHERING IN A 
LARGE DIP IN TEMPERATURES. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE 
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. LOOK FOR 
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT 

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT AS 
DEEPER WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST 
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER EVEN THOUGH 
SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL 
BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND 
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW WITH VERY SHALLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT COURTESY 
OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR 
FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY START TO THE WEEK 
WITH HIGHS THAT LIMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT DURING THIS 
TIME FRAME...WITH THE CONCENTRATION OF GREATEST HGT ANOMALIES 
TRACKING FROM THE FOOT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BE 
REPRESENTED AT THE SFC BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL 
MONOPOLIZE THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT WILL 
BE RELATIVELY COOL TO START THE PERIOD...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL DAY TO 
DAY TO WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEND THE MERCURY TO ABOVE NORMAL 
LEVELS BY MID WEEK. 

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO SOME DETAIL...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY 
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY 
MORNING WILL PUSH EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WHILE THE 
IMPRESSIVE WESTERN CONUS BASED RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. 
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE 
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...YET A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
WILL PERSIST. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 5K FT WILL HAVE A TOUGH 
TIME CLEARING OUT THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...SO THE BULK OF THE 
DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL ONLY EMPHASIZE THE CHANGE TO 
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND. H85 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT 
CLOSE TO ZERO C MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A LACK OF SUNSHINE ENSURING 
THAT NEAR SFC TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S F. THIS WILL BE A 
CHANGE OF SOME 20 DEGREES FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.

WHILE THE LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN MONDAY NIGHT...A 
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM APPROACHING STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TRAPPED 
TO KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CYCLONIC 
FLOW ABV H925 WILL NOT HELP MATTERS EITHER. WILL INCREASE SKY COVER 
FROM CONTINUITY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. 

ON TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS 
DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE DEPTH OF 
AN ALREADY ON GOING WARM ADVECTION PROCESS...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY 
LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT 
OF ALTO-CU. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPERIENCE A LITTLE 
SUNSHINE WITH H85 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 8C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON 
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S F.  

THE HEART OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND 
TUESDAY NIGHT....THEN WILL BECOME ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF NOVA 
SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HOW STRONG WILL THE SFC HIGH BE? FORECAST MSLP 
VALUES OF 1036-37MB WILL TRANSLATE TO LEVELS THAT ARE ONLY 
EXPERIENCED IN THAT AREA/AT THAT TIME OF YEAR TO A ONCE IN 30 YEAR 
RETURN INTERVAL. IN ANY CASE...THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON THE WARM 
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS WILL BE HELD AROUND 10C...SO WE CAN ANTICIPATE 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO 
(AND LIKELY THROUGH) NEXT WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 
ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

STRONG CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BASED ENSEMBLES 
THAT ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING WILL REIGN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND 
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AGAIN...THE STRENGTH OF THIS PARTICULAR 
RIDGE IN ITS FORECAST LOCATION WILL RIVAL THOSE FROM THE PAST 30 
YEARS. ITS SFC REFLECTION WILL BE THAT OF A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES. 

THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH 
H85 TEMPS AROUND 12C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL GENERALLY 
RANGE FROM 70 TO 75...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW 
DEGREES OF 50 (40S SRN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY). 

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN 
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING INTO AT 
LEAST THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF CLEARING 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 
CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WRN OH 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MI. THESE VFR 
CIGS...MVFR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY 
AFTER 00Z SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

AS FLOW VEERS WNW THIS EVENING AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR 
ADVECT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE 
FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BRING IN LOWER STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS 
AT AREA TERMINALS WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER 
TERRAIN...INCLUDING KJHW. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GRADUAL LIFTING TO VFR/MVFR OVER HIGHER 
TERRAIN/ AFTER 15Z MONDAY...THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL LINGER 
THROUGH 00Z TUE.
 
OUTLOOK... 
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN/ WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PIVOTING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE. 
FRESHENING NORTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COLD 
ADVECTION WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WAVE-ACTION ALONG THE 
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES...PARTICULARLY ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WAVES 
WILL BUILD INTO THE 4-6 FOOT RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 
SHORTER NORTHWESTERLY FETCH ON LAKE ERIE SHOULD KEEP WAVES SLIGHTLY 
LOWER...IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS AN EXPANSIVE DOME OF 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY 
MOVE OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING 
IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR 
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







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