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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271926
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY 
AND PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH 
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ON FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
WEEKEND AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...BEFORE 
MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN RATHER SIMPLE. LINGERING
BROAD/WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL
FLOW ON FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST FROM MICHIGAN INTO NEW YORK STATE. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU AND STRATOCU
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING MAY TEND TO DIMINISH A
BIT IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH
SUSPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS WILL STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN BOTH THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER SEEN ON
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS
GREATER AMOUNTS OF LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 850 MB TONIGHT.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING/ MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE
HELPS TO FINALLY MIX OUT THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SKIES TREND MOSTLY SUNNY AREAWIDE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER LATER
TONIGHT... THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. WHILE OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED GREATER AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
RETAINED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM OUR P PREVIOUS CONTINUITY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE COOLEST INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE. ON
FRIDAY... SOME MODEST WARMING OF OUR AIRMASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW
HIGHS TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA... THOUGH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE CONFINED TO
AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK...AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO MAY STILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A WEAK LOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM LIFTS A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THUS WILL CONFINE CHANCE
PROBABILITIES TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50 AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY.

ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS/STRENGTH OF
THIS GREAT LAKES SYSTEM REALLY LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN
THIS WEEKENDS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS WE MOVE 
INTO NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL 
IMPULSES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THUS HAVE KEPT KEPT A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND WESTERN NY DURING THE 
AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY AND 
INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 
MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL LOWER-END VFR CONDITIONS UNDER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CU/STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS... WITH ANY SPOTTY LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LIFTING TO VFR OVER
TIME.

TONIGHT...EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO LARGELY
PREVAIL UNDER SCT-BKN STRATOCU. WHILE A LITTLE PATCHY IFR VALLEY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE KJHW
TAF AT THIS POINT.

ON FRIDAY...ANY FOG THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...ANY LEFTOVER VFR
STRATOCU SHOULD FINALLY MIX OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...BEFORE SOME HIGH CIRRUS BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE...FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN
BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR DURING FRIDAY.
 
OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR. 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE ON THE LAKES WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER
THAT...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE RULE FROM FRIDAY ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR



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