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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 310238
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST WIND WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS 
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY
THIS WIND WILL ALSO CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONTINUED COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT MULTIBANDED SNOW 
SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT...THOUGH SOME UPSTREAM 
CONNECTION OF MOISTURE TO GEORGIAN BAY MAY ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF 
A STREAMER OR TWO OFF LAKE ONTARIO. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO NEAR THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE SNOW
BELTS.

FOR TONIGHT COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AIR TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 925 HPA WILL BOTTOM
OUT AT -20C SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND -24C EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
EASTWARD...ERODING MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ACROSS WNY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CREATE
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL PLUMMET TO
AROUND MINUS 10 DEGREES AND LOWER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS ACROSS INLAND SW NYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR SUCH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A FAIR 
WEATHER DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE 
CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND 12KM NAM BOTH LINGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS 
OVER THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY ON A NORTHWEST WIND. CANNOT RULE OUT A 
FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FLYING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS 
THE GENESEE VALLEY WARMING ALOFT AND SHIFTING WINDS LATER IN THE DAY 
CARRYING ANY ACTIVITY NORTHWARD OVER LAKE ONTARIO. 

LATER SATURDAY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE UPPER 
LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY CREATE ENOUGH 
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR THE LAKE 
BEFORE THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EASE ITS 
WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS 
BOUNDARY USHERING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR LATER 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 
ROUND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY MORE 
NUMEROUS/ENHANCED EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE 
TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE 
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKES...WITH THIS PARTICULARLY SO DOWNWIND OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WHICH HAS MORE OPEN WATER. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ANY 
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH PERHAPS 
AN INCH OR TWO FALLING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS...THE FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE THE 
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS BUFKIT 
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY 
LOW-LEVEL IN MOISTURE...WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THESE MARGINAL FOR 
THE FORMATION OF ICE CRYSTALS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT 
ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY FLAGS JUST YET...THE POSSIBILITY 
DOES APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO BE WORTH MENTIONING A CHANCE OF FREEZING 
DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS/ZFP/HWO. 

BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME LEFTOVER SCATTERED LINGER SNOW SHOWERS 
AND/OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO 
SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE GIVING 
WAY TO A GRADUALLY ADVANCING SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW ATTENDANT TO A 
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN OVER CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SOMEWHERE AROUND 
MIDDAY...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES DURING THE 
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS REGION...AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL 
BE POSSIBLE BY SUNSET...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE 
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL EXHIBIT A MARKED NON-DIURNAL 
TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE MID 
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING... 
BEFORE DROPPING OFF AGAIN FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS THE FRESH ARCTIC 
AIRMASS ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THAT READINGS WILL HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID 
TEENS ELSEWHERE. 

AFTER THAT...THINGS GET CONSIDERABLY MORE INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY 
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OHIO VALLEY LOW STRENGTHENS 
AND SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM 
ALL ALONG...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE  
DIFFICULTIES IN PINNING DOWN ITS EXACT TRACK...THOUGH THIS SAID THE 
12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED THE GENERAL NORTHWARD SHIFT SEEN IN 
TODAY/S EARLIER 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GENERALLY 
RANGES FROM A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO ONE ACROSS THE 
VIRGINIAS...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING THE FORMER AND THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF 
INDICATING THE LATTER. WITH THE NAM APPEARING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT 
NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS JUNCTURE...FEEL THAT A CONSENSUS OF THE 
GLOBAL /AND USUALLY MORE RELIABLE/ MODELS IS THE SAFER BET TO FOLLOW 
AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN 
THE FORECAST TRACK. 

USING THE ABOVE AND WPC AS A GENERAL GUIDE...HAVE BROUGHT THE 
STEADIER SYNOPTIC SNOWS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THESE NOW REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO AND OSWEGO COUNTY. CORRESPONDINGLY...HAVE 
ALSO BUMPED UP ACCUMULATIONS A BIT...WITH THE BULK OF THESE FOCUSING 
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PARTICULAR TIME FRAME...3 TO 5 INCHES 
OF SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH AMOUNTS 
THEN LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER 
AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS...AND THEN TO AROUND AN INCH OR SO ALONG 
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THAT...AN ADDITIONAL 
INCH OR TWO MAY THEN FALL MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS 
AWAY. 

PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUNDAY'S EXPECTED 
SNOWFALL TOTALS...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY  
GENERATE A PROLONGED ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF 
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS FALLING 
OVER A 24 TO 30 HOUR PERIOD. THIS STATED...ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD 
SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FURTHER 
NORTHWARD WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA 
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE A SOUTHWARD SHIFT 
WOULD LIKELY SUPPRESS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. 
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE AND LINGERING UNCERTAINTY/LACK OF CONFIDENCE 
IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY 
HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW. 

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW 
WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL PULL MORE ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO 
THE REGION. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIMITED 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 
MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH MORE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND 
CHILLS. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON 
MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN 
READINGS MAY WELL DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED...WEAK LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD LIFT 
NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY FALL APART ALTOGETHER ON TUESDAY AS THE 
FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE 
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE LATTER THEN BRINGING A BRIEF PUSH OF 
"MILDER" AIR AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE 
OF THIS SYSTEM...RENEWED ARCTIC COLD AND AT LEAST SOME LAKE ONTARIO 
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING MULTI 
BANDED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO 
AND THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LAKE ERIE. A WEDGE OF DRY AIR ADVANCING 
FROM THE WEST WILL REDUCE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THIS DRY AIR PASSES EXPECT MUCH OF THE TAF 
REGION TO RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 

ON SATURDAY A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH 
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH IN THE KROC 
TAF SITE...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE VFR TOMORROW MORNING. 
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SOME 
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE CLOSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. 

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS 
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. LIKELY SNOW TOWARDS THE NY/PA STATE LINE.  
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST 
OF THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 
TOMORROW...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS 
ON THE LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LAKES 
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A FRESHEN WESTERLY WIND BEHIND THIS FEATURE TO 
AGAIN PRODUCE SCA ON LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008-012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS/WCH
MARINE...THOMAS







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