Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 130302
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING 
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
RAIN TO OUR REGION...WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS IT
BEGINS AND ENDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR
TONIGHT. A BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND THICKEN AS IT BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN COOLER
LOCATIONS BEFORE LEVELING OFF WHEN THE CLOUDS MOVE IN.
ELSEWHERE...LOWS SHOULD RUN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES TENDING TO BE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE (SUCH AS
THE DUNKIRK AIRPORT) BEFORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS PICK UP LATE.

TOMORROW WILL START WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR 
EASTERN SECTIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS TO OUR 
EAST WILL SLOWLY FADE TO THE EAST...WHILE TOWARDS THE WEST MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES 
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW 
WILL ALSO BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER MUCH 
OF THE REGION. A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO 
SHORELINE AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL NEAR 50F. THIS SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE IN NIAGARA AND ORLEANS
COUNTIES.

PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE TILL FRIDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY 
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE 
OHIO VALLEY. 12Z MODEL SUITE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FORECASTING THIS 
FEATURE TO MERGE WITH WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW DROPPING THROUGH 
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY 
TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. 
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK 
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 
SATURDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT 
INCOMING WARMER AIR WILL OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH A MAINLY RAIN
SCENARIO...WITH A LOWER RISK FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND AN EVEN LOWER
RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN. 

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALTHOUGH A QUARTER TO
AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
MELTING OF OUR SNOWPACK COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
TRIBUTARIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY 
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP ENOUGH 
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE THE SHOWERS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL 
PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES 
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S. 

SOME TIMING ISSUES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT THE GENERAL IDEA 
SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS IS TO REESTABLISH THE TROUGH ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EITHER MONDAY 
NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE 
FRONT FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH A MARGINALLY COLD WEST TO 
NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME LAKE INDUCED/UPSLOPE SNOW 
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL OFF BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT 
FOR TUESDAY...THEN REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 03Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE VFR ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATION TO MVFR. RAIN DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. 
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN...WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE MORNING. 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY...IFR WITH MORNING SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS...OTHERWISE MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES ON OPEN LAKE WATERS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY BEHIND A STORM SYSTEM WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MELT GRADUALLY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO FLOODING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WHICH ROSE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL EASILY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...
KEEPING THE SNOWMELT AT A MANAGEABLE PACE. BASED ON RECENT SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) MEASUREMENTS...BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN
INCH OF SWE HAS RUNOFF OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS HAS CAUSED
CREEKS TO OPEN UP A BIT...BUT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT ICE IN PLACE
THE HEADWATERS.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE BASINS OF THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...AS WELL AS THOSE OF THE ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE RIVERS.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES...THIS STILL IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE ANY FLOODING. ONE GUIDE USED TO DETERMINE WHEN ICE WILL
BREAK UP IS THAWING DEGREE HOURS (TDH) WHICH IS THE SUM OF THE
ABOVE FREEZING PORTION OF TEMPERATURES BY HOUR. USING THIS
TECHNIQUE...TDH REMAIN BELOW 300 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN FOR 
THE WARMEST BASINS. WHILE IT TYPICALLY TAKES 300 TO 500 TDH FOR
ICE TO BREAK UP...IT MAY TAKE A BIT MORE THAN THAT IN THIS CASE
GIVEN THE THICK ICE THAT IS LIKELY IN PLACE. THIS SAID...THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO FURTHER RIPEN THE SNOW PACK AND INCREASE
FLOWS.

AFTER THAT...THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD INCREASE A BIT THIS WEEKEND
WHEN RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND ADD TO THE
RUNOFF. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO
QPF AND TEMPERATURES. MMEFS ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD
PROBABLY REQUIRE THE WARMEST AND WETTEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO
CAUSE FLOODING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THIS IN THE BUFFALO
CREEKS AND ALLEGHENY BASINS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ICE
JAMS IN THE BUFFALO CREEKS...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES
ON THE WARM SIDE OF CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/JJR/TMA




National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy