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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 222308
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
608 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING 
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING 50-55 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN 
THE 3-5K LAYER SIGNALING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION. 
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO 
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AHEAD OF THE 
UPPER WAVE. POCKETS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL AT OR BELOW 
FREEZING ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE TUG HILL CONTINUING 
THE WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA 
AND THIS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFICULTY
LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TONIGHT...HAVE
TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE 
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR 
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT 
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY 
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP 
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH 
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED 
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL 
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY 
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE 
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND 
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS 
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH 
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A 
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO 
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE 
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF 
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE 
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM 
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE 
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO 
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE. 
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL 
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A 
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS 
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST 
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK 
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH 
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE 
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE 
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY 
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND 
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOWMELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR 
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOWMELT. ONCE SURFACE 
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL 
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED 
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM 
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40 
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT 
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY 
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. 
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY 
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN 
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. 

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO 
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG 
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN 
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER 
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET 
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG 
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK 
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE 
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY 
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT 
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. 

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE 
NOREASTER' LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR 
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED 
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF 
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND 
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES 
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT  
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND 
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH
DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL TRIBUTARIES MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR 
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR 
     NYZ019.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR 
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH







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