Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 060239
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS 
ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO INLAND AND AWAY FROM LINGERING LAKE EFFECT 
STREAMERS. SHIFTING WINDS WILL TAKE THESE WEAKENING AND NARROW LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW STREAMERS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING TO 
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OFF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT A
DRIER AIR MASS AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF LESS THAN 
5K FEET.

AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FROM THE MIDWEST OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THIS SHIFTING IN THE
WIND WILL CARRY ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...MEANWHILE A DRY AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
AID IN DIMINISHING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.

THE CLEARING IN SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP 
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING ARE: 
BUFFALO: 0/2007, ROCHESTER: -9/2014, WATERTOWN:-21/2014. THE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH SUCH THAT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 
-15F...BUT WITH BOTH TIME AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SUB -15F WIND 
CHILLS (-20F NORTH COUNTRY) AT A MINIMUM WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND 
CHILL ADVISORIES. "WARMEST" OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SE OF LAKE 
ONTARIO WHERE LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUB ZERO 
TEMPERATURE READINGS. 

THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION 
FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY MAY REMAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE BACKING WINDS CARRY THE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE IN
THE MORNING WILL HAVE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE BRISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT 
FROM A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO 
EAST. WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE 
QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS ON 
THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE COLDEST SOUTHERN 
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 
THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE 
REGION AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE...STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT 
AND CONVERGENCE CROSS THE REGION. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE JUST A LIGHT 
ACCUMULATION WITH AN INCH OR SO IN MOST AREAS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW 
INCHES EAST OF BOTH LAKES WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW INTO 
HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A 
LITTLE MORE PROGRESS WITH THE LAKE PLAINS RISING TO AROUND 30...WITH 
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE 
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE DISORGANIZED SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN 
THE LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SNOW 
SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW SHOWERS 
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH 
EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW UPWARD CREEP 
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE ON 
TARGET FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH HEIGHT RISES 
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE NATION. THE LATEST GFS 
AND ECMWF HAVE THE WARMING ARRIVING ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 
LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. IT STILL APPEARS THE WARMTH PEAKS WEDNESDAY 
WITH HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 40S...AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS 
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING 
A BROAD TROUGH INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT 
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING AT LEAST SOME COOLING... 
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY FRIDAY.

THE WARM-UP APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY 
WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND 
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE KEPT AT BAY THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH NO RAIN FALLING THERE WILL BE 
LITTLE OR NO FLOOD RISK INITIALLY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL 
SIMPLY ALLOW THE SNOWPACK TO CONSOLIDATE AND RIPEN. WHILE THE DEPTH 
OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL DROP...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WATER WILL 
BE RELEASED AS THE INITIAL MELTWATER IS RE-ABSORBED BY THE REMAINING 
SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG 
ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP ON 
THE STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WITHOUT RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF THE 
ICE MAY VERY WELL STAY LARGELY IN PLACE DESPITE A FEW WARMER DAYS. 
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS WARM-UP TO RIPEN THE SNOWPACK...BUT A GREATER 
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THE NEXT WARM-UP WHEN THE 
SNOW WILL BE MORE READY TO RELEASE ITS WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO 
SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE MIDWEST FURTHER BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY BRING VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR 
VSBYS TO THE KROC AIRFIELD. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK 
AROUND TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST 
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO 
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING IN A MUCH DRIER AIR 
MASS WILL HELP ERODE ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE 
AIRFIELDS. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.  

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. 
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. 
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THIS 
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE LAKES WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND AS 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WINDS 
WILL BECOME LIGHT. BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKES 
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER 
THAT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR/THOMAS
MARINE...AR/THOMAS







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy