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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND 
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS 
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA 
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND 
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS 
AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS 
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE 
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND 
WITH SUNSHINE JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...THERE MAY 
BE SOME TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS 
NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO 
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL 
CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY 
WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF QUEBEC HELPING TO KEEP STRATUS AT 
BAY THERE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF 
WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 20S 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL 
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE 
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS 
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH 
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL 
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN 
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT 
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS 
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE 
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL 
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE. 
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY 
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE 
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY 
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS 
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY 
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK 
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE 
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY 
SKIES. 

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING 
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW 
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO 
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY 
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR 
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. 
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX 
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP 
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS 
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY 
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 40S 
ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE 
SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER 
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO 
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A 
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE 
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE 
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN 
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON 
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG 
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A
50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING SOME STRONG
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE WIND
THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION
OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO
THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP
TO AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN
OVERALL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING
AVAILABLE POST- FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN 
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN 
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO 
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET 
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT 
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF 
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER 
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO 
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER 
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR 
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER 
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE 
18Z TAF CYCLE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS 
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED 
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE PA STATE 
LINE. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS 
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL 
IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS 
WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR 
SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS 
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART 
ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK... 
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT 
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE 
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A 
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS 
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







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