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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010246
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS 
AND FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON 
LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH 
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SHOWERS JUST NOW EXITING 
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY. 

A MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME 
PERIOD...AND LIKELY MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND 
MID LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES. AS WE COOL SOME THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO 
LOWER WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. WILL CUT BACK SOME ON THE FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 
AS THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT 
OF FOG PRODUCTION...AND WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE 
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME 
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED.  

WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO 
MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE STILL COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WILL RANGE 
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.  

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS 
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST 
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE 
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO 
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER 
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S 
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO 
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST 
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A 
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER 
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY   
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED 
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY 
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S 
TO LOWER 80S. 

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA 
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A 
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN 
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE 
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER 
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE 
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR 
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE 
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON 
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE 
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S 
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO 
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S 
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND 
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME 
PERIOD AND LIKELY LOWER TO IFR/ LOW END MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
VISIBILITIES WHILE LIKELY NOT AS RESTRICTIVE AS THE CIGS WILL LOWER 
TO IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE MVFR/ISOLATED IFR VSBYS WILL BE 
FOUND ELSEWHERE. 

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...LIKELY 
BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z WE SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. MUCH 
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITHIN A STILL HUMID AIRMASS. 
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
TIER AND WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL 
FADE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS 
ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. 

OUTLOOK...  
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF 
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG. 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES 
HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS 
EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY ACROSS 
THE LAKES AND RIVERS AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN BELOW 15 
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT...SUCH THAT SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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