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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 301948
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AIR HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BEHIND A WARM FRONT WHICH IS LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF ROCHESTER. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE TO FOCUS THIS...ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE IN COVERAGE. MOST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEYS ON A SUBTLE WAVE WHICH WILL CROSS FROM
W-E THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND POSSIBLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SURFACE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE NEAR EASTERN LAKE ERIE. AT 340 PM...THE
LONE THUNDERSTORM IS APPROACHING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
DRY TODAY...WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN 80S...WITH UPPER 80S
IN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS NORTH OF I-90.

EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY THIS EVENING.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT
SOME RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM FORECAST ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WHICH APPEARS LESS LIKELY TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.
STEADIER SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN WITH THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT 850MB
FLOW...WHICH COINCIDES WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE. THE
REGION WILL ALSO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR JET QUADRANT...AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES. THIS
SAID...CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE SPOTTY...WITH CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS...SO WILL STAY WITH LIKELY POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN NAM/GFS FORECAST PROFILES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT AND
TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG.

A WARM/MUGGY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SSW 
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 
LOWER 70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID TO UPPER 60S 
ELSEWHERE.

DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY ...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FIRST
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND +15C HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT 
AND AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE 
MILD SIDE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY 
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPES NEARING OR 
EVEN BETTERING 1000 J/KG BY LATER IN THE DAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE 
INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG ANY LAKE 
BREEZES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. 
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY 
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS 
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE 
BOUNDARY MAY PERSIST. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED JUST 
WEST OF NEW YORK STATE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...THE 
NIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PRECIP CHANCES 
STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON 
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...LOWER CHANCE POPS BY 
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 DURING 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND SBCAPES 
OVER 1000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDEX AT -4C ALSO POINT TO POSSIBILITY OF 
STRONG STORMS. THE RISK OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT WITH 
ONLY LOWER CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN 
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES 
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY 
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST 
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE 
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE MOIST AIR BUILDS IN
BEHIND A WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THESE SHOULD STILL
BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY...AROUND 4-5K FEET...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND NOT LIKELY TO
IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. 

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS LIKELY TO LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE S-SW FLOW SHOULD HELP DOWNSLOPE BUF/IAG/ROC/ART WHICH
WILL KEEP THEM MAINLY IN THE VFR/MVFR CATEGORY...WHILE HIGHER
ELEVATION AND THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW IFR OR LOWER CIGS
AT JHW...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SUNDAY...FIRST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AT BUF/IAG...THEN SPREADING
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR-VFR WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT. WAVES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AROUND A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AS WAVES BUILD
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH. BASED ON THIS...HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINE FOR LAKE ERIE...BUT HELD OFF ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR
NOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JM/WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







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