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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 282337
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW 
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE 
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH 
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF 
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW 
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED. 

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING 
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY 
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.  

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR 
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A 
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY 
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS 
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT 
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY 
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A 
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT 
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE 
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE 
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON 
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S 
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME 
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER 
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS. 
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND 
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW 
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE 
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK 
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL 
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER 
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE 
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL 
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO 
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO 
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND 
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON 
TUESDAY. 

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING 
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT 
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT 
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA




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