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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 240855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVERHEAD TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL READ BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARD NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN SHOWERS 
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS ON SATURDAY WITH 
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS 
MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NEW YORK 
STATE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING A DRY AND CHILLY 
AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. DEW POINTS ARE READING 
IN THE TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORES AS OF 08Z. 
THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS IS JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS 
FROM PLUMMETING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING. AREA SURFACE OBS
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AT 08Z AND WILL DROP A FEW 
MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT 850MB 
TEMPS OF -3C TO -5C ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPS TOPPED OUT IN THE 
LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE LOW TO MID 40S ARE 
EXPECTED. DIURNAL MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS 
DROPPING A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL 
DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF ONLY 10-15 
KNOTS ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SEE THE 
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS 
WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS 
THE MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT 
EXPECT THAT RAIN LARGELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP 
INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS WNY BUT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER 
WINDS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TEMPS COOL INTO THE UPPER 
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A DRY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING 
SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A 
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH 
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS AS THE SOUTHERN 
STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE LOW 
WILL WELL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER A NORTHERN STREAM 
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN MAINTAINING 
A NORTHERN SURFACE CIRCULATION THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR 
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS 
THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 
THE NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE UPSLOPE 
FLOW AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK WILL KEEP THE 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS HIGHER THAN ELSEWHERE. NONETHELESS THE CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE 
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO  RESULT IN COOLER 
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS 
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A EVEN SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS TEMPERATURES 
THERE WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOOK FOR A CLEARING/DRYING TREND TO START SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE 
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN 
FROM THE MIDWEST. LINGERING COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW 
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE 
THE RESULT OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE THIS 
FEATURE WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW 
THAT WILL AN EXTENDED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE MISSISSIPPI 
AND OHIO VALLEYS...THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS 
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DRY AT LEAST 
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN 
CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS THE BROAD LOW MEANDERS ACROSS 
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT'S 
PROGRESSION INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING THE FASTER 
OF THE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF/GEM ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE 
FORECAST TILTING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SPEED. NEVERTHELESS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL 
AND WET WEATHER DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST AND THIS 
WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW 
DRIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS 
HAS BROUGHT LIGHTER WINDS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN 
DROPPED. LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT 
THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE SHORES 
ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE NEARSHORE FORECAST 
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP RELATIVIE HUMIDITIES DROP
INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO...BUT JUST SHY OF... RED FLAG
CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITHIN
THE PAST 48-HOURS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST. FINE FUEL
MOISTURES ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT BUT 1000 HOUR FUELS
ARE OVER 20 PERCENT. BASED ON THESE DETAILS WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH







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