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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST 
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY 
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A PATCH OF THICKER 
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS CROSSING WESTERN NY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND THIN OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY 
CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF 
LOWER CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CLIP LEWIS 
COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS TOO SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE 
EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY.

OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES 
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A TRANQUIL AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY 
CLEAR EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SPREAD 
EASTWARD AND INTO WESTERN NY...WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUPPORTED 
BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOWS 
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON 
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR 
LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD 
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID 
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE 
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL 
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG 
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE 
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME 
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT 
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED 
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS 
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE 
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY 
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE 
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON 
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED 
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION. 

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER 
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER 
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE 
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY 
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO 
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN 
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A 
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A 
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. 
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME. 

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION 
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE 
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE 
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING 
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY 
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY 
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO 
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS 
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. 

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND 
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE  
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE 
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE 
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND 
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL 
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE 
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST. 

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND 
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD 
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO 
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.   

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF 
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY 
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE 
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION. 

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST 
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE 
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED 
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH 
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT 
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO 
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW 
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND 
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.  

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD 
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE 
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY 
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S. 

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY 
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST 
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS 
WILL RESIDE. 

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW 
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT 
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH 
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON. 
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG 
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON 
WEDNESDAY. 

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE 
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO 
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF 
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K 
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS 
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE 
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND 
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK 
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH 
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A PATCH OF 
THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A 
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND TUG 
HILL REGION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY 
SKC. 

TONIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN 
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL SPREAD A DECK OF 
LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR 
CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BREAK UP 
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. DURING THE AFTERNOON A 
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION. 
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH 
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL 
INITIALLY BE VFR AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR 
EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR 
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 
NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER 
AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF 
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO ENOUGH 
TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF 
OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS AND WAVES COMING 
BACK DOWN THIS EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
INTO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN 
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING 
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... 
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE 
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD 
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER 
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR 
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY 
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY 
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







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