Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
HOURS...LESSENING THE SNOW MELT...AND REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT 
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES 
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR 
FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NOR'EASTER WILL 
LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS 
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW 
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IS CROSSING THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS 
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY AS THE FEATURE 
PASSES THIS EVENING.  

SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE PRESENCE OF 
850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C HAS DEVELOPED SOME WEAK LAKE 
ENHANCEMENT WHICH RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE 
LAKES THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 
FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT 
IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW SO 
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT DRIZZLE /DUE TO 
THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR SNOW FLURRIES. 
QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA 
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE 
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE TWO CREEKS THAT ARE UNDER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE THE ELLICOTT AND TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA.
ELLICOTT CREEK IS EXPECTED TO CREST THIS EVENING...WHILE TONAWANDA
CREEK SHOULD CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON. 

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH 
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS 
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL 
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. 
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE 
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING 
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER 
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY 
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING 
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE 
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT 
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS 
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO 
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN 
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING 
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN 
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED 
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS 
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT 
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF 
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO 
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE 
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH 
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY 
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A 
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS 
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS 
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE 
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A 
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT 
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON 
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO 
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO 
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING 
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE 
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO 
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT 
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER 
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. 

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS 
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE 
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS 
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. 
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME 
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A 
SOUTHWEST WIND WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF 
WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EARLY 
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWER. AS THE COLD AIR 
DEEPENS AND WINDS VEER TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE 
OVER TO SNOW...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OFF LAKE ERIE THIS 
CHANGE SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER THE BAND CROSSES THE KIAG/KBUF 
AIRFIELDS...BUT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IT MAY CLIP THE AIRFIELD WITH A 
WINTRY MIX BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. 

THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT AS WIND 
SHEER INCREASES WITH THE NEARING OF A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID 
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO 
LATER OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD 
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. 

THIS SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR 
AREA...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES FOUND ACROSS THE KROC/KART 
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR 
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES 
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT 
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND 
ENDING TONIGHT. 

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE 
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A 
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL 
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy