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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221506
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT 
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA 
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE 
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN 
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER 
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER 
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA 
PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED AT THE 
SURFACE...AGAIN JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. REGIONAL RADARS ARE LARGELY 
PRECIPITATION FREE THIS LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE COOL NORTHERLY 
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY STILL LINGER SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
SOUTH OF BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. ALSO IN A MOISTURE RICH LOWER 
ENVIRONMENT THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING A PRESENCE OF LOW 
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS. CONFIRMED WITH 
REGIONAL SURFACE OBS...FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER 
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING 
SHOULD RAISE THE LOWER CLOUD BASE SUCH THAT VISIBILITIES SHOULD 
IMPROVE. IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...THE LIKELIEST 
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL TOPS OF CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY 
COUNTIES. LATER TODAY A LOBE OF ENERGY SPIRALING AROUND THIS UPPER 
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW 
YORK WITH A CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER. 

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED 
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR 
AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO 
LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE 
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS 
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.  

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF 
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC 
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. 
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE 
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS 
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING 
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER 
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING 
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO 
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED 
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING 
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE 
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW 
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE 
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE 
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE 
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE 
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER 
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE 
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH 
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING 
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. 

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE 
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER 
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY 
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE 
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE 
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM 
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT 
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING 
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW 
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT 
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK 
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE 
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH 
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN 
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING 
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY 
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE 
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. 

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT 
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST 
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. 
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF 
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK 
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE 
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED 
IN UNDER IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CLOUD COVER...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND 
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS
THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FEED A MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL 
EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN...WITH THIS SYSTEM 
REACHING A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. 
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WRAPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO 
BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH  
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TENDING TO DIMINISH TO SOME LEFTOVER 
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUR CURRENT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SLOWLY 
LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/LOW VFR. 

GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES 
ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVER TIME AS 
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PIVOTS WESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING 
COASTAL LOW. 

OUTLOOK...   
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM THE FINGER 
LAKES EASTWARD...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER WEST.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT 
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE 
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS 
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE 
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS 
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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