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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 311921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE 
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE 
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER 
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG 
THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...WILL WEAKEN 
TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN 
THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS 
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD 
TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE 
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY 
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST 
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO 
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES 
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF 
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW 
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA 
COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.  ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY 
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH 
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER 
LATE TONIGHT. 

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH 
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL 
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH 
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







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