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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281739
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO ATLANTIC 
COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE SUMMER LIKE WARMTH RETURNS FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LAKES AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TO THE COAST. THIS COOL 
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL 
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS 
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING TONIGHT. 

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN 
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO 
INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN 
TIER.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
HOWEVER EXPECT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE WISE WE LOOK TO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE 
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM 
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK 
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TWO FEATURES...THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH THAT WILL 
BE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY 
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE 
THAT WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THE 
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF 
SUNDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK 
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EDGES CLOSER TO THE 
AREA...THOUGH WEAK FORCING AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT 
COVERAGE. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN THIS LIMITED ACTIVITY 
MAY HOLD OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE 
HOLD OFF LONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE BLEND BETWEEN THE 
ECMWF AND GFS OUTPUT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER 
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE 
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AFFECTING THE 
EAST COAST.

GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN 
NEW YORK FOR MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFY. 
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WARMER ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY 
THE PRESENCE OF THE DECAYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHOULD KEEP 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE 
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND 
YIELD WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE 
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK PROMOTING A LARGELY DRY AND INCREASINGLY 
WARM PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH HIGHS 
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DAYTIME CU WILL 
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT.  OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL 
BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MID TO HIGH 
CLOUDS WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN 
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
 
OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS / ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR. 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN



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