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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 161418
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OTHERWISE EXPECTED. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR MID APRIL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO BETWEEN -9C AND -12C BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ALOFT. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LIMITED MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING/S...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR 
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE 
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL 
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH 
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH 
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL 
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS 
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE 
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD 
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL 
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY 
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR 
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID 
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO 
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO 
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR. 
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT ON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR







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