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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 181110
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST 
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN 
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL 
SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE 
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP 
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL 
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF 
LAKE ONTARIO AT 11Z WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS OUR 
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE 
ANYTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES 
THOUGH...AS THERE IS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A LIMITED 
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LEGITIMATE SHOWERS WILL BE 
FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE 
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS 'MILDER' AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL 
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY 
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE 
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF 
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE 
SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY 
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY 
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY 
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY 
LATE MORNING. 

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL 
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST- 
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING 
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL 
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE 
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A 
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE UPGRADED A 
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. COULD NOT GET 
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES OR CONSENSUS WITH 
SURROUNDING WFO'S TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SRN TIER..SO 
WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF FOR NOW. THE DAYSHIFT WILL 
HAVE TO RE EXAMINE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER 
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF 
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD 
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE 
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND 
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER 
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST 
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER 
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE 
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST 
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT 
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A 
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME 
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A 
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO 
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO 
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY 
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM 
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO 
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO 
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP 
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ 
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP 
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE 
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM 
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY 
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING 
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT 
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER 
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE 
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED 
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE 
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE 
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10 
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD 
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR 
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT 
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY 
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH 
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR 
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS 
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY 
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL 
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS 
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS 
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT 
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. 

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG 
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED 
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER... 
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AT DAYBREAK WILL 
DETERIORATE TO MVFR FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE COURSE OF THE 
MORNING...AS LOWERING CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE SRN TIER (INCL. KJHW) WHERE LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID 
MORNING. 

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE 
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD 
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. 
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS 
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN ITS 
WAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST WIND...WHICH ON LAKE 
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO 
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND 
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL 
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES 
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO 
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS 
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







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