000
FXUS61 KBUF 181801
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WORK WEEK. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE FAIR 
WEATHER...COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE 
WEEKEND WILL BECOME WARMER WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND JUST 
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. WE ARE SEEING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE 
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AND AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD...COUPLED WITH DEPLETION OF MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY CLEAR. A FEW PATCHES OF MID 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING AN INCREASE 
OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO ACROSS 
WNY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS 
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S...MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR 
VALLEYS...AND UPPER/AROUND 50 NEAR THE LAKE SHORES. 

FOR TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE 
THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS 
THE REGION...MOST PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO WHERE 
FOR A TIME SKIES WILL BE PARTY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA 
WILL AVERAGE +5 TO +6C WHICH WILL BRING COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AS A BROAD 
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS 
ACROSS THE REGION AND ULTIMATELY OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. 
COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH 
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOUT 5 DEGREES PER DAY THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN TO THE EAST OF 
THE FORECAST AREA...SETTING UP WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL 
NONETHELESS PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS TREND WITH 
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY UPPER 50S 
TO LOWER 60S AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE THANKS TO THE 
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED DIURNAL CU THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASING LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE 
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK COUPLED POTENTIALLY RESULT 
IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY 
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL. A BIT MORE HUMIDITY 
SHOULD START TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. 

AFTER THIS...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE ONE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE CERTAINLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE EVEN WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO NEAR 20C. HOWEVER...WILL PLAY IT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
DUE TO QUESTIONS OVER THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND ACROSS WNY. AS MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE DIMINISHES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN 
GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD A FULL RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 
EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY 
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. 

OUTLOOK...  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL 
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES INTO WEDNESDAY. FINE 
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS