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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200251
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT. 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY UNDER PARTIAL 
SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE 
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A 
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH 
COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW 
SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF A 
STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW A 
PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO ADVECT 
NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY 
PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND 
EVENTUALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. ON THE 
LAKE PLAINS INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THE LOW 
CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING. 

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING 
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL 
JET CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS 
LATER TONIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE HILLS AND LAKE ERIE SHORE. 
THE INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH 
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE 
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...WITH SOME MID 
40S ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE LOWS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY...WITH 
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 
20 TO 25 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 25-30 KNOTS 
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH SOME ADDED ACCELERATION FROM 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY 
MIDDAY AS STRONG MIXING DILUTES THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES 
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST 
OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +13C WEST AND +11C EAST DURING THE 
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON 
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM STOUT SSW 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MORNING CLOUDS MAY 
INITIALLY HINDER WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY START DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL REACH 
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ UPWARDS TO 40 KNOTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WNY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL 110 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE 
NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. A SURFACE WAVE FORMING AND 
DEEPENING ALONG THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...AND THUS WE WILL RAISE POPS TO 
CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND SHEAR 
ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM LINE SEGMENTS OF 
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN 
TO THE SURFACE. 

THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR WNY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR 
EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE 
COLD FRONT THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD 
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS 
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED 
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THESE 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH 
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS. THIS...ALONG 
WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY TOWARDS THE EAST WILL 
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL 
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IF 
THERE IS AMPLE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND 
NORTH COUNTRY WILL AGAIN BE PRONE TO FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALOFT TO START THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO LONG WAVE
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE AND A SECOND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CRESTING OVER A CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...BOTH ALOFT AND ALSO REFLECTED AT THE 
SURFACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE 
LIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL 
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE. 

AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SAVE FOR THE 
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING 
DRY...BUILDING WARMTH AND ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND 
ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO 
INTERRUPT THE FAIR WEATHER. 

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE 
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS 
STREAMING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT 
LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA 
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY 
PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH AREAS OF 
MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW AS WELL. INCREASING SSW 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE 
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

A 40-45 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 
OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MIX OUT 
BY MIDDAY...AND LEAVE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON 
WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET AND INCREASING MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE 
ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

OUTLOOK... 
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A 
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN 
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN 
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SSW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS 
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE 
ONTARIO...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WINDS 
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PERIOD 
OF STRONGER SSW WINDS MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE 
ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS 
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE 
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY 
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







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