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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 301804
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
104 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST WIND WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS 
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
ADDITIONALLY THIS WIND WILL ALSO CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND 
CHILLS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
BRING FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE MIDWEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW 
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA. 

WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE LAKE EFFECT MULTIBANDED SNOW 
SHOWERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT...THOUGH SOME UPSTREAM 
CONNECTION OF MOISTURE TO GEORGIAN BAY MAY ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF 
A STREAMER OR TWO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO NEAR 
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH AN 
INCH OR LESS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS. THE LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SW NYS WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED AND 
WILL CANCEL THIS HEADLINE. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS. A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL 
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL. 

FOR TONIGHT WE TURN EVEN COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 
UPPER MIDWEST CIRCULATES ARCTIC AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE WITH 
THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS 
WAYNE-CAYUGA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP 
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO 
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT TOWARDS ZERO FOR WESTERN NEW YORK DOWN 
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. 
COMBINING THESE TEMPS WITH A LIGHT/MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
ASSOCIATED WINDS WE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIRMASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT 
WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF SNOW 
SHOWERS...WHICH MAY ALSO PICK UP SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO 
AND THE LIMITED OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE...AND ALSO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW 
EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF 
ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY 
BRING SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO 
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. A FRESH 
BATCH OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS IN MOST 
AREAS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MEANWHILE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL 
ENHANCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC BOUNDARY WITH A 
FAIRLY VIGOROUS BUT FAST TRACKING SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP. MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED THIS LOW...BUT HAS STRUGGLED 
MIGHTILY WITH ITS TRACK. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTH FROM 
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 
FUTURE MODEL SHIFTS. SINCE THIS IS PRIMARILY A QUESTION OF TRACK...A 
CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST FORECAST...WITH A MULTI-MODEL 
BLEND OF THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM/NAM FAVORED. THIS MOST LIKELY 
SCENARIO WOULD BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NIL BUFFALO TO 
ROCHESTER NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE A NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING 
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS NORTHWARD OR A SOUTHWARD SHIFT KEEP 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OUT OF THE CWA.

REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL PULL ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. 
THIS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED LAKE 
EFFECT SNOWS SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 
A MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 
ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS 
ON MONDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS STRONGER 
SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WOULD BRIEFLY BRING A PUSH OF MILDER 
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE BY THURSDAY. 
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY THURSDAY 
AS FLOW APPEARS TO ALIGN BETTER AT THAT TIME THAN EARLIER IN THE 
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING 
NUMEROUS MULTI BANDED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH 
OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT MVFR CIGS...AND LARGELY IFR VSBYS WITHIN 
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WEDGE OF DRY AIR 
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST WILL TAPER THIS ACTIVITY OFF THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THIS DRY AIR 
PASSES EXPECT MUCH OF THE TAF REGION TO RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT 
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 

ON SATURDAY A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH 
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCSH IN THE KROC 
TAF SITE...THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE VFR TOMORROW MORNING. 
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SOME 
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE CLOSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. 

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS 
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. LIKELY SNOW TOWARDS THE NY/PA STATE LINE.  
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST 
OF THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO 
TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT 
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN 
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-
     085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH







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