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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271505
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS AND CONDITIONS REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 15Z...REGIONAL RADARS STILL SHOW A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/ SPRINKLES LINGERING TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE...WHILE
SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED BUT STILL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS BEING
FORCED BY A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF SEASONABLY COOL AIR
/850 MB TEMPS AOA +7C/ ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO LAKE ERIE.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LATE SUMMER DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND SOME
SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST...ALONG
WITH THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. PER RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND THE MOST RECENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO FIRST ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE PLAINS...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES /I.E. UPSLOPE FLOW/. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AIR ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 70 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
THE MID 60S ON THE HILLS.

TONIGHT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD. EXPECTING 
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS POSSIBLY DRIFTING OVERHEAD. 
LIGHT WINDS WILL WORK WITH THE CLEARING TO SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL 
COOLING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO 
MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A FINE END TO THE WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL WARM BACK INTO 
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WITH 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. MID AND HIGH 
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND 
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES. 

WHILE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO LARGELY 
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS 
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S 
SATURDAY IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE 
MILD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 
60S WITH MID 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS GENERALLY PROGGED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY 
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
JET SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND IT IS OVERTAKEN BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z 
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS A FAIRLY ROBUST CLOSED 
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO AT 
ODDS WITH IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN...SO AM NOT INCLINED TO BUY IN AT THIS 
POINT. INSTEAD WILL STICK WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS 
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH FALLS APART 
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN PRETTY CLOSE TO 
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT'S READINGS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 
AIRMASS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS WE MOVE 
INTO NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK...THE ONLY FLY IN THE 
OINTMENT MAY END UP BEING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY 
PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE APPALACHIANS 
EVEN AS IT GETS SHEARED OUT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER 
THE MIDWEST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HAVE KEPT A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND WESTERN NY 
DURING THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD THE REMNANTS OF 
THIS SYSTEM LIMP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY 
AND INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO 
THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 15Z...A MIX OF MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION... ALONG WITH LINGERING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES... WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FOUND
TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN BUILDS TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...THROUGH NOT BEFORE PRODUCING
SOME ADDITIONAL BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE...WITH THIS
IMPROVEMENT FIRST BEGINNING ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS BEFORE
SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR SKC TONIGHT WITH LIGHT 
WINDS. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND 
IMPACT KJHW AFTER 6Z. LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY 
AROUND 10Z.
 
OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. 
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE
ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER THAT...RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY ON
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH



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